• Fashion & Textile Research Journal
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.41-50
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• 2004

This research proposes the on-stage costumes for the play Hamlet of Shakespeare performed by Yunheedan Guhri Pae - the Street Theater Troupe. Stage costumes have an important role in displaying the characteristics of each characters to the audience and has big visual effects. However, in order to design the costumes in the object viewpoints of the audience, the survey on the images of the characters who had actually watched the performance was taken place and proposed the costume design according to the results of the survey. Hamlet a: This result was applied to propose a sweater in black color, black leather pants and vest. Hamlet b: This result was applied to propose hooded coat in purple in middle level of brightness and color spectrum and yellow coat. For free image, loose pants in blue and vest in the same color tone were proposed. Gertrude a: This result was applied to use purple (violet) with reddish tone to propose the formation of a dress applying tailored suit. Gertrude b: This result was applied to propose purple gown and the one-piece dress with black laces. Ophelia a: This result was applied to propose feminine white dress and cape in purple color tone. Ophelia b: This result was applied to propose dyed and weaved clothes. Through the surveys as above, the images of each character was driven in adjectives, and using the results driven from the brightness, coloration, and color, color images were proposed. Only one costume cannot make up for the stage costumes and because it exists as an element of stage production, it is true that costumes are limited in some areas. However, that limit can become the motive of the costume. There is a limit, which the designer cannot produce the costumes as he or she had designed but I believe it is the center of the on-stage customers to display the characteristics of the characters according to the given concept. The limit of this research is the fact that because the costumes were designed so they fit the conditions already given, thus it was difficult to regard the process of designing and producing the costume as a project done according to the interaction. And in the future, if it is possible, I wish for the joint research with the people responsible for stage art to take place as a practical stage art. It was possible to produce practical costume since they were produced for actual performance and the production of costumes considering the dance steps, line of flow, and acting, was able to reduce the trial and error on stage. Through this research, I felt that the understanding and smooth interaction on diverse other areas not limited to the costume design should be taken place and believe that this was a research that proposes new research method since there had been only a few previous research regarding the on-stage costumes for actual performances. Therefore, this research had depended on the surveys given to the audiences to endow objectivity, however, I wish this research can contribute to defining effective process and methods for the on-stage costumes with more active researches with diverse methods and in diverse areas. I am sorry that the costume production for all the characters and all the scenes in Hamlet couldn't be done due to many limitations. As the following research assignment, I am planning on designing the costumes for all the scenes.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.1 no.1
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• pp.33-41
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• 2010

In the age of globalization, effective and efficient corporate management is becoming more important as domestic and international business circumstances changes. In the middle of endless changes in business circumstances, fast reaction to customers and market, and offering customized goods and service became essential. In this respect, CRM designed to utilize customer information scientifically and systematically, has become an essential system and marketing strategy to enhance corporate competitiveness. CRM has placed the importance of customers in the front of marketing and has focused every process and business minds on customers. Recent change in the market and the trend of establishing and introducing CRM system has lead us to concentrate on the introduction of CRM in the financial institutions. This study searched for several views about CRM in academic and industrial papers. Through theoretical approach on CRM, the background of the introduction of CRM, the purpose of CRM, the characteristic and application of CRM, and the expected effect of CRM will be discussed. This study is focused on financial institutions where CRM is widely used. And through documents about examples of the introduction of CRM, the status of the establishment of domestic CRM and the necessity and trend of CRM will be discussed. Also the problem of CRM in the financial institutions and the improvement of CRM in domestic banks will be analyzed. When discussing CRM in the financial area, customers are the main source of corporate profit and through relationship management with the customers enhancing loyalty and maximizing profit can be obtained. Especially in CRM in financial institutions, maintaining existing customers makes higher profit ratio, so repurchasing and cross selling becomes important for obtaining lifetime value of existing customers who contribute to most of the profit of corporations. As a result, CRM should be completely customer oriented. CRM in financial institutions is not merely marketing work, but organizational competence which is made up of standardized work process through total process integration inside the corporation. Corporations which plan to introduce CRM should analyze the characteristics and conditions of corporations and establish purpose and strategy of CRM. And they need long term view to find out the factors which best fit for the introduction of CRM. To enable this, strategy composed of daily marketing activity and CRM concept is necessary. Also continued improvement through drill and training for operating organization should be followed to maintain CRM well. And corporate culture must settle customer as the center of corporate value. The race for introducing and improving CRM has already begun. CRM should not be regarded as a choice. It should be accepted as something essential. In this reality financial institutions should solve subdivision problem of customers and necessity of customers with the mind of 'customer's profit is my profit'. Customer focused management should not be emphasized only by words. Efforts like viewing from the customer's point must be nurtured to provide methods to help customers. That is, we should not just follow what is done in foreign countries. We should solve the problem of our customers according to the situation of our country, our industry, our corporation. Then we can gain the trust of customers, and the value derived from the customers will become the background of CRM which will lead the corporation to success.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.5-15
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• 2011

Prior to the introduction of the CRM, we need to analyze the characteristics and the situations of the company, and should establish a clear vision of the CRM. And each company should identify elements and technologies for introducing the most suitable CRM for them, and optimize them, with long-term perspective. In addition, it requires the implementation strategy which integrates the existing company's routine marketing activities with the concept of the CRM. According to the implementation strategy, the company should improve the business process which is the most effective in investment step by step, and the information system strategy, which develops system investment gradually, should harmonize with it. First, we recognized that raising the company value is important by maximizing customer lifetime value (LTV) by understanding customer needs, and achieving the company's goal through customer satisfaction. Second, we understood that adopting the CRM should be accompanied by changes in the structure, business process and customer contact channels, and it can be successfully integrated with business when it gets proper understandings and attentions of the management. Third, the reality is that there are few cases of successful implementation of domestic companies, and some companies that successfully implement the system mean nothing but implement the solution for developing the CRM. Therefore, it needs to be observed for the long haul, and it seems that we need to approach more systematically to implementation cases for each industry about implementation of the CRM. Fourth, the CRM is no longer the preserve of major companies, and it is the time that medium and small sized enterprises also need it. Taking lesson from Switzerland's small size store merchants who successfully adopt right size of the CRM for their business, for domestic medium and small sized enterprises, the necessity to develop business through developing the CRM models which fit their situations and maintaining relationships with customers has been grown. Fifth, for adopting the CRM business processes, changing or converting the CRM system to the model which fits the company's situation is important rather than applying the advanced company's CRM system model. In other words, the CRM solution which can maximize their own strength by developing the CRM program that makes the most of features and characteristics of the company should be adopted.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.4279-4295
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• 1977

Two types of model were established in order to product the soil moisture content by which information on irrigation could be obtained. Model-I was to represent the soil moisture depletion and was established based on the concept of water balance in a given soil profile. Model-II was a mathematical model derived from the analysis of soil moisture variation curves which were drawn from the observed data. In establishing the Model-I, the method and procedure to estimate parameters for the determination of the variables such as evapotranspirations, effective rainfalls, and drainage amounts were discussed. Empirical equations representing soil moisture variation curves were derived from the observed data as the Model-II. The procedure for forecasting timing and amounts of irrigation under the given soil moisture content was discussed. The established models were checked by comparing the observed data with those predicted by the model. Obtained results are summarized as follows: 1. As a water balance model of a given soil profile, the soil moisture depletion D, could be represented as the equation(2). 2. Among the various empirical formulae for potential evapotranspiration (Etp), Penman's formula was best fit to the data observed with the evaporation pans and tanks in Suweon area. High degree of positive correlation between Penman's predicted data and observed data with a large evaporation pan was confirmed. and the regression enquation was Y=0.7436X+17.2918, where Y represents evaporation rate from large evaporation pan, in mm/10days, and X represents potential evapotranspiration rate estimated by use of Penman's formula. 3. Evapotranspiration, Et, could be estimated from the potential evapotranspiration, Etp, by introducing the consumptive use coefficient, Kc, which was repre sensed by the following relationship: Kc=Kco$.$Ka＋Ks‥‥‥(Eq. 6) where Kco : crop coefficient Ka : coefficient depending on the soil moisture content Ks : correction coefficient a. Crop coefficient. Kco. Crop coefficients of barley, bean, and wheat for each growth stage were found to be dependent on the crop. b. Coefficient depending on the soil moisture content, Ka. The values of Ka for clay loam, sandy loam, and loamy sand revealed a similar tendency to those of Pierce type. c. Correction coefficent, Ks. Following relationships were established to estimate Ks values: Ks=Kc-Kco$.$Ka, where Ks=0 if Kc,=Kco$.$K0$\geq$1.0, otherwise Ks=1-Kco$.$Ka 4. Effective rainfall, Re, was estimated by using following relationships : Re=D, if R-D$\geq$0, otherwise, Re=R 5. The difference between rainfall, R, and the soil moisture depletion D, was taken as drainage amount, Wd. {{{{D= SUM from { {i }=1} to n (Et-Re-I+Wd)}}}} if Wd=0, otherwise, {{{{D= SUM from { {i }=tf} to n (Et-Re-I+Wd)}}}} where tf=2∼3 days. 6. The curves and their corresponding empirical equations for the variation of soil moisture depending on the soil types, soil depths are shown on Fig. 8 (a,b.c,d). The general mathematical model on soil moisture variation depending on seasons, weather, and soil types were as follow: {{{{SMC= SUM ( { C}_{i }Exp( { - lambda }_{i } { t}_{i } )+ { Re}_{i } - { Excess}_{i } )}}}} where SMC : soil moisture content C : constant depending on an initial soil moisture content $\lambda$ : constant depending on season t : time Re : effective rainfall Excess : drainage and excess soil moisture other than drainage. The values of $\lambda$ are shown on Table 1. 7. The timing and amount of irrigation could be predicted by the equation (9-a) and (9-b,c), respectively. 8. Under the given conditions, the model for scheduling irrigation was completed. Fig. 9 show computer flow charts of the model. a. To estimate a potential evapotranspiration, Penman's equation was used if a complete observed meteorological data were available, and Jensen-Haise's equation was used if a forecasted meteorological data were available, However none of the observed or forecasted data were available, the equation (15) was used. b. As an input time data, a crop carlender was used, which was made based on the time when the growth stage of the crop shows it's maximum effective leaf coverage. 9. For the purpose of validation of the models, observed data of soil moiture content under various conditions from May, 1975 to July, 1975 were compared to the data predicted by Model-I and Model-II. Model-I shows the relative error of 4.6 to 14.3 percent which is an acceptable range of error in view of engineering purpose. Model-II shows 3 to 16.7 percent of relative error which is a little larger than the one from the Model-I. 10. Comparing two models, the followings are concluded: Model-I established on the theoretical background can predict with a satisfiable reliability far practical use provided that forecasted meteorological data are available. On the other hand, Model-II was superior to Model-I in it's simplicity, but it needs long period and wide scope of observed data to predict acceptable soil moisture content. Further studies are needed on the Model-II to make it acceptable in practical use.

• The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.55-71
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• 2013

By aircraft from Aviation regulations and institutional regulatory framework for ensuring the safety is secured. State-of-the-art aircraft, according to the type of development and diversification, modernization and new types of aircraft are operated. In particular, light aircraft and ultralight flying device such as the gyro-plane and unmanned flying devices is introduced a new device, and the device operates at these flight in accordance with the standards of the Aviation Act regulations may not occur often. Variety of light aircraft and ultra-light aircraft assembly, can be adapted for a person engaged in the business of aviation safety management and to perform the legal basis was established. Depending on the classification of newly introduced aircraft, the biggest change is the introduction of the concept of the LSA. In Korea, the various light aircraft are operating, but these aircraft range not clearly Aviation Regulations had difficulty in ensuring safety. This study examined the differences between international rules and regulations of Korea about the classification of aircraft. The LSA are included in aircraft categories internationally, but LSA will not be included in the aircraft categories, which is one of a range of powered flight device exists in Korea Aviation Act. Limit for maximum continuous power speed in a LSA, it is a limit on the right of the people who want using the high-performance plane. Also it is an international trend does not fit in, and is consistent with the intent of LSA manufacturer. Delete the content from a range of future aviation law revisions and light aircraft-related provisions to limit the maximum continuous power speed is considered to be suitable for the purpose of introducing the light aircraft industry. The laws and regulations set up in order to ensure the safety of ultralight aircraft categories existing in ultralight aircraft that exceeds the purpose of the introduction of LSA technology development at home and abroad, and is intended to reflect. These standards complement of aircraft operation is not appropriate for the situation unless the country is difficult to ensure the safety of operations. Also developed in other countries, the introduction of aircraft operating in the country, so many problems occur early revision is required.

• Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.231-241
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• 2021

This study intended to present strategies and implications for attracting new students and customized education to university officials through research on the participation of workers' academic aspirations in university education. Thus, variables were derived by analyzing prior data, and causal settings between variables and questionnaires were developed. Subject to the survey, 331 workers interested in participating in university education were collected through interpersonal interviews. The collected data were dataized, and reliability and feasibility verification and frequency analysis were conducted. Finally, we validate the fit of the structural equation model and the causal relationship for each concept. Therefore, the results of the validation show the following implications. First, university officials should be motivated by a mentor and mentee system with experienced people who have switched to a suitable vocational group through university education. It will also be necessary to develop and disseminate programs so that they can continue to develop themselves for the future. To this end, it will be necessary to help them understand their aptitude and strengths through consultation with experts. Second, university officials should strengthen public relations so that prospective students can know the cases and information of the job transformation of the admitted workers through recommendations. It will also be necessary to develop university education programs that can self-develop, accept various ideas through "public contest", and provide accurate information about university education to workers through re-processing. Third, university officials should provide workers with a program that allows them to catch two rabbits: job transformation and self-improvement through university education. In other words, it is necessary to stimulate the motivation of workers by providing various information such as visiting advanced overseas companies, obtaining various certificates, moving between departments of blue-collar and white-collar, and transfer opportunities. Fourth, university officials should actively promote university education programs related to this by participating in university education and receiving systematic education and the flow of social environment. Finally, university officials will need to consult and promote workers so that they can self-develop when they participate in college education, and they will have to figure out what they need for self-development through demand surveys and analysis.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.1-24
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• 2010

Typically, marketing literature on innovation diffusion has focused on the pre-adoption process and only a few studies explicitly examined consumers' post-adoption behavior of innovative mobile services. Besides, prior use diffusion research has considered the variables that determine the consumers' initial adoption in explaining the post adoption usage behavior. However, behavioral sciences and individual psychology suggest that social influences are a potentially important determinant of usage behavior as well. The purpose of this study is to investigate into the effects of network factor and brand identification as social influences on the consumers' use diffusion or continued usage intention of a mobile service. Network factor designates consumer perception of the usefulness of a network, which embraces the concept of network externality and that of critical mass. Brand identification captures distinct aspects of social influence on technology acceptance that is not captured by subjective norm in situations where the technology use is voluntary. Additionally, this study explores the effect of the use diffusion on the brand switching intention, a generally unexplored form of post-adoption behavior. There are only a few empirical studies in the literature addressing the issue of IT user switching. In this study, the use diffusion comprises of rate of use and variety of use. The research hypotheses are as follows; H1. Network factor will have a positive influence on the rate of use of mobile services. H2. Network factor will have a positive influence on variety of use of mobile services. H3. Network factor will have a positive influence on continued usage intention. H4. Brand identification will have a positive influence on the rate of use. H5. Brand identification will have a positive influence on variety of use. H6. Brand identification will have a positive influence on continued usage intention. H7. Rate of use of mobile services are positively related to continued usage intention. H8. Variety of Use of mobile services are positively related to continued usage intention. H9. Rate of use of mobile services are negatively related to brand switching intention. H10. Variety of Use of mobile services are negatively related to brand switching intention. With the assistance of a marketing service company, a total of 1023 questionnaires from an online survey were collected. The survey was conducted only on those who have received or given a mobile service called "Gifticon". Those who answered insincerely were excluded from the analysis, so we had 936 observations available for a further stage of data analysis. We used structural equation modeling and overall fit was good enough (CFI=0.933, TLI=0.903, RMSEA=0.081). The results show that network factor and brand identification significantly increase the rate of use. But only brand identification increases variety of use. Also, network factor, brand identification and the use diffusion are positively related to continued usage intention. But the hypotheses that the use diffusion are positively related to brand switching intention were rejected. This result implies that continued usage intention cannot guarantee reducing brand switching intention.

• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.1-29
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• 2007

The flow theory becomes one of the most important frameworks in the internet research arena. Hoffman and Novak proposed a hierarchical flow model showing the antecedents and outcomes of flow and the relationship among these variables in the hyper-media computer circumstances (Hoffman and Novak 1996). This model was further tested after their initial research (Novak, Hoffman, and Yung 2000). At their paper, Hoffman and Novak explained that the balance of challenge and skill leads to flow which means the positive optimal state of mind (Hoffman and Novak 1996). An imbalance between challenge and skill, leads to negative states of mind like anxiety, boredom, apathy (Csikszentmihalyi and Csikszentmihalyi 1988). Almost all research on the flow 4-channel model have been focusingon flow, the positive state of mind (Ellis, Voelkl, and Morris 1994 Mathwick and Rigdon 2004). However, it also needs to examine the formation of the negative states of minds and their outcomes. Flow researchers explain play or playfulness as antecedents or the early state of flow. However, play has been regarded as a distinct concept from flow in the flow literatures (Hoffman and Novak 1996; Novak, Hoffman, and Yung 2000). Mathwick and Rigdon discovered the influences of challenge and skill on play; they also observed the influence of play on web-loyalty and brand loyalty (Mathwick and Rigdon 2004). Unfortunately, they did not go so far as to test the influences of play on state of mind. This study focuses on the relationships between state of mind in the flow 4-channel model and play. Early research has attempted to hypothetically explain state of mind in flow theory, but has not been tested except flow until now. Also the importance of play has been emphasized in the flow theory, but has not been tested in the flow 4-channel model context. This researcher attempts to analyze the relationships among state of mind, skill of play, challenge, state of mind and web loyalty. For this objective, I developed a measure for state of mind and defined the concept of play as a trait. Then, the influences of challenge and skill on the state of mind and play under on-line shopping conditions were tested. Also the influences of play on state of mind were tested and those of flow and play on web loyalty were highlighted. 294 undergraduate students participated in this research survey. They were asked to respond about their perceptions of challenge, skill, state of mind, play, and web-loyalty to on-line shopping mall. Respondents were restricted to students who bought products on-line in a month. In case of buying products at two or more on-line shopping malls, they asked to respond about the shopping mall where they bought the most important one. Construct validity, discriminant validity, and convergent validity were used to check the measurement validations. Also, Cronbach's alpha was used to check scale reliability. A series of exploratory factor analyses was conducted. This researcher conducted confirmatory factor analyses to assess the validity of measurements. All items loaded significantly on their respective constructs. Also, all reliabilities were greater than.70. Chi-square difference tests and goodness of fit tests supported discriminant and convergent validity. The results of clustering and ANOVA showed that high challenge and high skill leaded to flow, low challenge and high skill leaded to boredom, and low challenge and low skill leaded to apathy. But, it was different from my expectation that high challenge and low skill didnot lead to anxiety but leaded to apathy. The results also showed that high challenge and high skill, and high challenge and low skill leaded to the highest play. Low challenge leaded to low play. 4 Structural Equation Models were built by flow, anxiety, boredom, apathy for analyzing not only the impact of play on state of mind and web-loyalty, but also that of state of mind on web-loyalty. According the analyses results of these models, play impacted flow and web-loyalty positively, but impacted anxiety, boredom, and apathy negatively. Results also showed that flow impacted web-loyalty positively, but anxiety, boredom, and apathy impacted web-loyalty negatively. The interpretations and implications of the test results of the hypotheses are as follows. First, respondents belonging to different clusters based on challenge and skill level experienced different states of mind such as flow, anxiety, boredom, apathy. The low challenge and low skill group felt the highest anxiety and apathy. It could be interpreted that this group feeling high anxiety or fear, then avoided attempts to shop on-line. Second, it was found that higher challenge leads to higher levels of play. Test results show that the play level of the high challenge and low skill group (anxiety group) was higher than that of the high challenge and high skill group (flow group). However, this was not significant. Third, play positively impacted flow and negatively impacted boredom. The negative impacts on anxiety and apathy were not significant. This means that the combination of challenge and skill creates different results. Forth, play and flow positively impacted web-loyalty, but anxiety, boredom, apathy had negative impacts. The effect of play on web-loyalty was stronger in case of anxiety, boredom, apathy group than fl ow group. These results show that challenge and skill influences state of mind and play. Results also demonstrate how play and flow influence web-loyalty. It implies that state of mind and play should be the core marketing variables in internet marketing. The flow theory has been focusing on flow and on the positive outcomes of flow experiences. But, this research shows that lots of consumers experience the negative state of mind rather than flow state in the internet shopping circumstance. Results show that the negative state of mind leads to low or negative web-loyalty. Play can have an important role with the web-loyalty when consumers have the negative state of mind. Results of structural equation model analyses show that play influences web-loyalty positively, even though consumers may be in the negative state of mind. This research found the impacts of challenge and skill on state of mind in the flow 4-channel model, not only flow but also anxiety, boredom, apathy. Also, it highlighted the role of play in the flow 4-channel model context and impacts on web-loyalty. However, tests show a few different results from hypothetical expectations such as the highest anxiety level of apathy group and insignificant impacts of play on anxiety and apathy. Further research needs to replicate this research and/or to compare 3-channel model with 4-channel model.

• Journal of Distribution Research
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.29-62
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• 2012

As distribution environment is changing rapidly and competition is more intensive in the channel of distribution, the importance of retailer image and retailer equity is increasing as a different competitive advantages. Also, consumers are not functionally oriented and that their behavior is significantly affected by the symbols such as retailer image which identify retailer in the market place. That is, consumers do not choose products or retailers for their material utilities but consume the symbolic meaning of those products or retailers as expressed in their self images. The concept of self-image congruence has been utilized by marketers and researchers as an aid in better understanding how consumers identify themselves with the brands they buy and the retailer they patronize. Although self-image congruity theory has been tested across many product categories, the theory has not been tested extensively in the retailing. Therefore, this study attempts to investigate the impact of self image congruence between retailer image and self image of consumer on retailer equity such as retailer awareness, retailer association, perceived retailer quality, and retailer loyalty. The purpose of this study is to find out whether retailer-self image congruence can be a new antecedent of retailer equity. In addition, this study tries to examine how four-dimensional retailer equity constructs (retailer awareness, retailer association, perceived retailer quality, and retailer loyalty) affect customers' repatronage intention. For this study, data were gathered by survey and analyzed by structural equation modeling. The sample size in the present study was 254. The reliability of the all seven dimensions was estimated with Cronbach's alpha, composite reliability values and average variance extracted values. We determined whether the measurement model supports the convergent validity and discriminant validity by Exploratory factor analysis and Confirmatory Factor Analysis. For each pair of constructs, the square root of the average variance extracted values exceeded their correlations, thus supporting the discriminant validity of the constructs. Hypotheses were tested using the AMOS 18.0. As expected, the image congruence hypotheses were supported. The greater the degree of congruence between retailer image and self-image, the more favorable were consumers' retailer evaluations. The all two retailer-self image congruence (actual self-image congruence and ideal self-image congruence) affected customer based retailer equity. This result means that retailer-self image congruence is important cue for customers to estimate retailer equity. In other words, consumers are often more likely to prefer products and retail stores that have images similar to their own self-image. Especially, it appeared that effect for the ideal self-image congruence was consistently larger than the actual self-image congruence on the retailer equity. The results mean that consumers prefer or search for stores that have images compatible with consumer's perception of ideal-self. In addition, this study revealed that customers' estimations toward customer based retailer equity affected the repatronage intention. The results showed that all four dimensions (retailer awareness, retailer association, perceived retailer quality, and retailer loyalty) had positive effect on the repatronage intention. That is, management and investment to improve image congruence between retailer and consumers' self make customers' positive evaluation of retailer equity, and then the positive customer based retailer equity can enhance the repatonage intention. And to conclude, retailer's image management is an important part of successful retailer performance management, and the retailer-self image congruence is an important antecedent of retailer equity. Therefore, it is more important to develop and improve retailer's image similar to consumers' image. Given the pressure to provide increased image congruence, it is not surprising that retailers have made significant investments in enhancing the fit between retailer image and self image of consumer. The enhancing such self-image congruence may allow marketers to target customers who may be influenced by image appeals in advertising.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.19-32
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• 2010

Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.