• Title/Summary/Keyword: Fire risk prediction

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A Research of Risk Assessment for Urethane Fire Based on Fire Toxicity (연소 독성 기반 우레탄 화재의 위험성 평가 연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Soo;Cho, Nam-Wook;Rie, Dong-Ho
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.73-78
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    • 2015
  • Fire in the risk management subject belongs to high risk disaster which accompanies personnel and materiel loss. So, management of disaster and safety is required to include fire prevention activities, fire risk prediction and investment of safety management expense. Combustion toxicity is required by gas toxicity test (KS F 2271), to minimize human damage. In this study, gas toxicity test were experimented with regard to urethane sample (Depth 5~25 mm) to obtain basic data. Fire effluent exposing to experimental animal were analyzed by FT-IR (Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy). Combustion toxicity index Lethal Fractional Effective Dose ($L_{FED}$) of ISO 13344 was calculated. According to the result of calculating Lethal Concentration 50% ($LC_{50}$) based on $L_{FED}$, $LC_{50}$ of urethane sample containing certain level of fire load is confirmed as $118{\sim}129g/m^3$. Through this study, applicability of this method was confirmed for fire risk assessment. This method can provide information to predict human damage by toxicity combustion gas for securing safety.

A Study on Fire Protection of Chemical Plants Using FRA (Fire Risk Assessment) Method (FRA(Fire Risk Assessment)기법을 이용한 화학공장의 Fire Protection에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Seung-Hoon;Yoo, Byung-Tae;Tae, Chan-Ho;Chae, Chung Keun;Ko, Jae Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2016
  • Chemical plants and oil gas refinery facilities are intrinsically vulnerable to industrial hazards, such as explosion or fire. Especially, the fire is extremely dangerous to facility structures and plant personnel because of direct flame, radiant heat and smoke. In addition, it has the ripple effect of destroying infra-structures and polluting the environment. In an effort to tackle these potential industrial risks, the procedure of FRA techniques in chemical plants were investigated. The main focus was put on the time variation of physical properties of the main building, i.e. control rooms, warehouses and electrical substations, from a direct flame contact and radiant heat. The deformation of a building due to fire was monitored and modeled with respect to time variable. A variety of case studies, domestic and abroad, was tested in the model to verify the FRA procedure. The developed model was proven to be highly effective to reduce the possible risks at chemical plants. An accurate accident frequency prediction and damage quantification was made by the developed model.

Calculation of Fire-resisting Time and Extraction of Simple Transplants in the Event of a Building Fire (건축물 화재시 필요내화 시간 산정 및 간이식 도출)

  • Kim, Yun-Seong;Han, Ji-Woo;kim, Hye-Won;Jin, Seung-Hyeon;Lee, Byeong-Heun;Kwon, Yeong-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2020.11a
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    • pp.59-60
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    • 2020
  • Large fires continue to spread throughout the building, including the fire in Uijeongbu in 2015, the fire in Jecheon in 2017, and the fire in Miryang in 2018. According to the above fire case investigation, major problems were the fire resistance performance of compartment members such as fire doors, the fire spread due to damage to exterior wall openings, and smoke spread through vertical openings. However, in South Korea, only specification design is implemented for buildings that are not subject to performance design. In addition, the analysis of the fire resistance performance standards of building members in the specification design showed that fire doors were not specified in detail for 60 minutes of insulation performance and 60 minutes of fire resistance performance of E/V doors, limiting the prevention of fire spread. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to prepare measures to prevent the spread of fire by presenting simple transplants for calculating the required fire time according to the architectural design conditions for the performance design of the components of the fire room according to the purpose of use of the front of the building.

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Comparative Analysis between a Real-Life Explosion Case and A Damage Prediction Program (J도 LPG충전소 가스 누출로 인한 폭발사례와 피해예측 프로그램의 비교 분석)

  • Yongho Yang;Soonju Kim;Hasung Kong
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 2024
  • This study aims to estimate the scope of damage impact with a real-life explosion case and a damage prediction program (ALOHA) and suggest measures to reduce risk by comparing and analyzing the results using a Probit model. After applying it to the ALOHA program, the toxicity, overpressure, and radiant heat damage of 5 tons of storage scopes between 66 to 413 meters, and the real-life case also demonstrated that most of the damage took place within 300 meters of the LPG gas station. In the Probit analysis, the damages due to radiant heat were estimated as first-degree burns (13-50%), while structural damage (0-75%) and glass window breakage (94-100%) were expected from overpressure, depending on the storage volume. After comparing the real-life case and the damage prediction program, this study concluded that the ALOHA program could be used as the scope of damage impacts is nearly the same as the actual case; it also concluded that the analysis using the Probit model could reduce risks by applying calculated results and predicting the probability of human casualties and structural damages.

Damage Effects Modeling by Chlorine Leaks of Chemical Plants (화학공장의 염소 누출에 의한 피해 영향 모델링)

  • Jeong, Gyeong-Sam;Baik, Eun-Sun
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.76-87
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    • 2018
  • This study describes the damage effects modeling for a quantitative prediction about the hazardous distances from pressurized chlorine saturated liquid tank, which has two-phase leakage. The heavy gas, chlorine is an accidental substance that is used as a raw material and intermediate in chemical plants. Based on the evaluation method for damage prediction and accident effects assessment models, the operating conditions were set as the standard conditions to reveal the optimal variables on an accident due to the leakage of a liquid chlorine storage vessel. A model of the atmospheric diffusion model, ALOHA (V5.4.4) developed by USEPA and NOAA, which is used for a risk assessment of Off-site Risk Assessment (ORA), was used. The Yeosu National Industrial Complex is designated as a model site, which manufactures and handles large quantities of chemical substances. Weather-related variables and process variables for each scenario need to be modelled to derive the characteristics of leakage accidents. The estimated levels of concern (LOC) were calculated based on the Gaussian diffusion model. As a result of ALOHA modeling, the hazardous distance due to chlorine diffusion increased with increasing air temperature and the wind speed decreased and the atmospheric stability was stabilized.

Developing the Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model Using GIS and Mapping Forest Fire Risks (공간분석에 의한 산불발생확률모형 개발 및 위험지도 작성)

  • An, Sang-Hyun;Lee, Si Young;Won, Myoung Soo;Lee, Myung Bo;Shin, Young-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.57-64
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    • 2004
  • In order to decrease the area damaged by forest fires and to prevent the occurrence of forest fires, the forest fire danger rating system was developed to estimate forest fire risk by means of weather, topography, and forest type. Forest fires occurrence prediction needs to improve continually. Logistic regression and spatial analysis was used in developing the forest fire occurrence probability model. The forest fire danger index in accordance to the probability of forest fire occurrence was used in the classification of forest fire occurrence risk regions.

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Customized Evacuation Pathfinding through WSN-Based Monitoring in Fire Scenarios (WSN 기반 화재 상황 모니터링을 통한 대피 경로 도출 알고리즘)

  • Yoon, JinYi;Jin, YeonJin;Park, So-Yeon;Lee, HyungJune
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.41 no.11
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    • pp.1661-1670
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we present a risk prediction system and customized evacuation pathfinding algorithm in fire scenarios. For the risk prediction, we apply a multi-level clustering mechanism using collected temperature at sensor nodes throughout the network in order to predict the temperature at the time that users actually evacuate. Based on the predicted temperature and its reliability, we suggest an evacuation pathfinding algorithm that finds a suitable evacuation path from a user's current location to the safest exit. Simulation results based on FDS(Fire Dynamics Simulator) of NIST for a wireless sensor network consisting of 47 stationary nodes for 1436.41 seconds show that our proposed prediction system achieves a higher accuracy by a factor of 1.48. Particularly for nodes in the most reliable group, it improves the accuracy by a factor of up to 4.21. Also, the customized evacuation pathfinding based on our prediction algorithm performs closely with that of the ground-truth temperature in terms of the ratio of safe nodes on the selected path, while outperforming the shortest-path evacuation with a factor of up to 12% in terms of a safety measure.

Analysis on The Characteristics of Occupancy Prediction and The Fire Hazard in Narrow Dwelling Space (협소 거주공간 재실자 특성 및 화재위험성 분석)

  • Lee, Changwoo;Oh, Seungju;Yoo, Juyoul;Kim, Jinsung;Cho, Ahra;Cho, Yongsun
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.342-349
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    • 2016
  • The objectives of this study is analysis of the characteristics of fire risk and survey of narrow dwelling space(the Karaoke, Gosiwon etc). The narrow dwelling space has special structure characteristics; the narrow and the complex escape rote. Gosiwon have very separate and exclusive space room, so have the problem a suppression of fire. Furthermore almost Karaokes located in basement have a complex and limitary escape rote. Therefore we should research and development the exploration equipment that search a source of the fire and a emergency rescuer in the scene of the fire.

Establishing the Method of Risk Assessment Analysis for Prevention of Marine Accidents Based on Human Factors: Application to Safe Evacuation System

  • Fukuchi, Nobuyoshi;Shinoda, Takeshi
    • Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.19-33
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    • 2000
  • For the prevention of marine accidents based on human factor, the risk assessment analysis procedure is proposed which consists of (1) the structural analysis of marine accident, (2) the estimation of incidence probability based on the Fault Tree analysis, (3) the prediction of ef-fectiveness to reduced the accident risk by suitable countermeasures in the specified functional system, and (4) the risk assessment by means of minimizing of the total cost expectation and the background risk. As a practical example, the risk assessment analysis for preventing is investigated using the proposed method.

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A Development Study on the Urban Fire Risk Assessment Using Physically-based Prediction Model for Burning Phenomena (도시화재의 물리적 연소성상 예측 모델구축 및 이를 활용한 도시화재리스크 평가기법의 개발(II) -일본의 시가지화재시뮬레이션을 활용한 한국 화재경계지구의 Case Study-)

  • Shin, Yi-Chul;Koo, In-Hyuk;Kwon, Young-Jin;Nam, Dong-Gun;Yoshihiko, Hayashi
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Fire Science and Engineering Conference
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    • 2009.04a
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    • pp.473-479
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구는 한국형 도시화재의 물리적 연소성상 예측 모델구축을 위한 기초연구로 일본의 시가지화재시뮬레이션의 구성에 대하여 살펴보고 우리나라의 화재경계지구의 현장조사를 토대로 시뮬레이션을 활용한 Case Study를 수행하였다. 이에 따라 향후 일본과의 국제공동연구의 방향을 설정하여 안전한 방재도시 구현에 이바지하고자 한다.

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