• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권5호
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• pp.639-648
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• 2021

The study aims to examine the role of financial risk management in predicting the financial performance of commercial banks in Pakistan over the period of 2006-2017. For this purpose, risk management is measured through credit risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk, while financial performance is measured through ROA, ROE, and ROI. For this purpose, the dynamic panel model and two step GMM panel estimators are used to test the hypothesis empirically. The annual secondary data has been taken from the published financial reports of commercial banks of Pakistan. The results show that financial risk management significantly decreases the financial performance of commercial banks in Pakistan. Overall, the results are conclusive across the alternative measures of financial risk management in predicting the financial performance of the banking sector in Pakistan. The study suggested that managers should adopt risk management and risk hedging strategies to manage commercial banks' financial risks in Pakistan. They should hold extra cash while using the trade credit facilities. Previous studies mostly used a static model, but this study used a dynamic panel model. This study is among the first that focused on the various factors affecting the banks' performance in Pakistan.

• International Journal of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.58-65
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• 2023

Bankruptcy is a significant risk for start-up companies, but with the help of cutting-edge artificial intelligence technology, we can now predict bankruptcy with detailed explanations. In this paper, we implemented the Category Boosting algorithm following data cleaning and editing using OpenRefine. We further explained our model using the Shapash library, incorporating domain knowledge. By leveraging the 5C's credit domain knowledge, financial analysts in banks or investors can utilize the detailed results provided by our model to enhance their decision-making processes, even without extensive knowledge about AI. This empowers investors to identify potential bankruptcy risks in their business models, enabling them to make necessary improvements or reconsider their ventures before proceeding. As a result, our model serves as a "glass-box" model, allowing end-users to understand which specific financial indicators contribute to the prediction of bankruptcy. This transparency enhances trust and provides valuable insights for decision-makers in mitigating bankruptcy risks.

• 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 2007년도 춘계학술대회 학술발표 논문집 제17권 제1호
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• pp.209-212
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• 2007

Non-additive measures and their corresponding Choquet integrals are very useful tools which are used in both insurance and financial markets. In both markets, it is important to to update prices to account for additional information. The update price is represented by the Choquet integral with respect to the conditioned non-additive measure. In this paper, we consider a price functional H on interval-valued risks defined by interval-valued Choquet integral with respect to a non-additive measure. In particular, we prove that if an interval-valued pricing functional H satisfies the properties of monotonicity, comonotonic additivity, and continuity, then there exists an two non-additive measures ${\mu}_1,\;{\mu}_2$ such that it is represented by interval-valued choquet integral on interval-valued risks.

• 한국잡초학회지
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.195-202
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• 1993

The benefits of pesticides in improving the food quantity and quality requirements for an increasing world population are significant, and they can be described in agronomic, economic and social terms. The risks are assessed from the hazards which are likely to occur in practice ; the hazards are defined by the toxicity of the pesticide to non-target organisms at various exposure levels. There are ways of reducing the risks (mainly by reducing exposure in practice) and improving the benefits of pesticides ; these are known as risk management and benefit management respectively. The overall risk-benefit assessment is facilitated if each component can be expressed in financial terms, but it must be made nationally or locally on a sound technical basis against the prevailing agronomic, socio-economic and political circumstances. Paraquat is used to illustrate the risk-benefit assessment process in general terms, and the conclusion is that the benefits greatly outweigh the risks. It is important to keep the risks of pesticides in perspective with those associated with other naturally occurring chemicals in our diet and with other everyday aspects of life. In an overall context, the pesticide risk is small.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.451-454
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• 2007

Non-additive measures and their corresponding Choquet integrals are very useful tools which are used in both insurance and financial markets. In both markets, it is important to update prices to account for additional information. The update price is represented by the Choquet integral with respect to the conditioned non-additive measure. In this paper, we consider a price functional H on interval-valued risks defined by interval-valued Choquet integral with respect to a non-additive measure. In particular, we prove that if an interval-valued pricing functional H satisfies the properties of monotonicity, comonotonic additivity, and continuity, then there exists an two non-additive measures ${\mu}1,\;{\mu}2$ such that it is represented by interval-valued choquet integral on interval-valued risks.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 6th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.97-100
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• 2015

Analysis of construction tender documents in overseas projects is a very important issue from a risk management point of view. Unfortunately, majority of construction firms are biased by winning contracts without in-depth analysis of tender documents. As a result, many contractors have incurred loss in overseas projects. Although a lot of risk analysis techniques have been introduced, most of them focus project's external unexpected risks such as country conditions and owner's financial standing. However, because those external risks are difficult to control and take preemptive action, we need to concentrate on project inherent risks. Based on this premise, this paper proposes a project-oriented risk mining approach which could detect and extract project risk factors automatically before they are materialized and assess them. This study presents a methodology regarding how to extract potential risks which exist in owner's project requirements and project tender documents using state of the art data analysis method such as text mining, data mining, and information visualization. The project-oriented risk mining approach is expected to effectively reflect project characteristics to the project risk management and could provide construction firms with valuable business intelligence.

• Human Ecology Research
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• 제52권6호
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• pp.601-616
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• 2014

This study's aim was to explore the relationships among consumers' perceived risk, trust, and familiarity with products made in China. We invited 489 Korean adult consumers, who had purchased products made in China earlier, to take part in this investigation. Data analyses were conducted using a reliability test, confirmatory factor analysis, and structural equation modeling (SEM) with SPSS ver. 21.0 and AMOS ver. 21.0. We assumed that the perceived risk could be classified into four types: financial, performance, psychological, and social risk. The empirical verification through SEM indicated that all four types of the perceived risk represented a negative influence on the trust. Further, only the financial and psychological risks were significant when consumers were not familiar with products made in China (novice); in contrast, the experts (consumers familiar with products made in China) showed that the performance and social risks were effective. Finally, we found that there was a moderating effect of familiarity on the relationship between three types of perceived risk, namely financial, performance, and psychological risks, and trust, but the social risk was not affected. The results of this research should help us to understand the consumers' risk perception of imported goods and to formulate criteria on the basis of which the consumers evaluate these products. This research can help companies, particularly those in China, to formulate market strategies effectively when they enter a foreign market such as Korea by exploring the influence of the perceived risk on local consumers' purchasing behaviors as well.

• 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.123-130
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• 2007

기업의 국제화가 심화되면서 회계 및 재무정보 또한 국가경쟁력을 평가하는 주요지표로서 활용되기에 이르렀다. 그러나 아직도 국제사회에서 한국의 재무제표에 대한 신뢰성이 낮고, 결산관련 공시에도 반기보고와 정기 결산보고 등 연간 2회 발표만 있을 뿐이다. 따라서 투자가들은 기업에 관한 실질적인 정보가 없기 때문에 기업의 부도 가능성을 알 수 없고 경영자 자신들도 기업의 재무 상태에 관한 실시간 정보를 파악하기 어려워 금융위기와 같은 돌발 상황이나 급변하는 주요 경제변수들의 움직임에 대처할 능력이 없었다. 따라서 기업들의 부실 가능성을 신속히 예측하기 위하여 주식시장이나 채권시장에 나타난 재무정보를 이용하는 측정모형들이 연구되어 왔으며 이를 시스템으로 개발하고 필요한 콘텐츠를 이용하는 사례가 증가하고 있다. 본 논문의 목적은 기업의 부실을 회계자료에만 의존해서 연구하던 방법에서 해당기업의 재무정보를 이용한 부실예측모형을 이용해 기업의 부실확률을 산출하고, 주요 경제변수 변화에 따른 부실성의 민감도를 분석하는 데 있다. 연구방법으로는 부실확률 산출을 위해 블랙-숄즈 모형을 적용하는 한편, trans-log 함수를 이용하여 주요 경제변수 변화에 따른 기업 부실확률의 민감도분석을 행하였다. 본 논문의 연구결과에 의하면, 부실확률 변화에 미치는 영향에 있어서 오직 기업대출금 변수만이 연구기간(1997-1998)중 일관된 방향성을 유지했으며, 기업부실에 중대한 영향력을 미칠 것으로 예상되었던 경제 변수들의 경우에는 대기업과 중소기업 기업집단에서 상이한 결과를 도출하였다.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제45권1호
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• pp.139-152
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• 2017

Purpose: The purpose of this study is how Chinese users' personal traits affect the intention to use mobile payment. This research selects personal innovativeness and habit of cash payment as personal traits, and considers perceived risks and relative advantage as personal beliefs. In addition, the research divided perceived risks into three multi-faceted risks, which are privacy risk, financial risk and performance risk. Methods: The method of this study used questionnaire survey to collect 241 data on users' perception on mobile payment, and also used a structural equation modeling method. Results: The result of this paper shows that all hypotheses are statistically significant except 4 hypotheses. Conclusion: The result of this study found that personal innovativeness is negatively related with all 3 kinds of perceived risks as anticipated. And Chinese users' traditional habit of cash payment negatively affects intention to use mobile payment but is not statistically significant affecting three perceived risks. Among perceived risks, privacy risk is the most negatively influencing factor to relative advantage.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 1997년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.24-31
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• 1997

Recently, in Korea, demand for establishment of systematic risk assessment techniques for construction projects has increased, especially after the large construction failures occurred during construction such as New Haengju Bridge construction projects, subway construction projects, gas explosion accidents etc. Most of existing risk analysis modeling techniques such as Event Tree Analysis and Fault Tree Analysis may not be available for realistic risk assessment of construction projects because it is very complex and difficult to estimate occurrence frequency and failure probability precisely due to a lack of data related to the various risks inherent in construction projects like natural disasters, financial and economic risks, political risks, environmental risks as well as design and construction-related risks. Therefor the main objective of this paper is to suggest systematic probabilistic risk assessment model and demonstrate an approach for probabilistic risk assessment using advanced Event Tree Analysis introducing Fuzzy set theory concepts. It may be stated that the Fuzzy Event Tree AnaIysis may be very usefu1 for the systematic and rational risk assessment for real constructions problems because the approach is able to effectively deal with all the related construction risks in terms of the linguistic variables that incorporate systematically expert's experiences and subjective judgement.