• 통상정보연구
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.41-62
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• 2013

본 논문은 외환보유고 축적이 신흥경제권의 금융시스템에 중 장기적으로 어떠한 영향이 미치는지에 대해서 고찰하였다. 외환보유고의 축적은 신흥경제권에 있어서 금융위기의 재발방지라는 관점에서 매우 유효한 수단이며 금융위기의 리스크를 줄이기 위한 수단이기도 하다. 외환보유고의 과도한 축적이 경제적으로 대외채무, 국내소비, 국내투자 및 경제성장에 각각 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 중 장기적인 관점에서 보면 외환보유고의 축적이 국내소비를 감소시키는 한편 수출증가에 의한 무역재 산업의 확대를 가져온다. 즉 무역재 산업의 확대는 무역재 산업이 자본집약적인 경우에 국내투자의 확대를 통해서 경제성장에 긍정적인 영향을 준다. 그러나 중국은 국내투자를 대폭적으로 확대하는 정책을 실시하고 있지만 그 외의 국가에서는 과도한 외환보유고의 축적으로 인해서 국내투자가 정체되고 있다. 이러한 사실은 중국을 제외하고 과도한 외환보유고의 축적이 비무역재 산업의 축소를 통해 중 장기적으로 경제성장을 침체시킴으로서 잠재적인 리스크가 높아진다는 것을 의미한다.

• 한국항만경제학회지
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.177-202
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• 2003

Balassian Approach of regional economic integration has been mainly aimed at improving conditions for regional trade since 1960s. After the financial crises of the late 1990s, however, the theoretical approach to regional integration will have to be a different one as regionalism have to offer enhanced protection against crises. The aim of this paper, above all, is to provide a theoretical framework for the emerging new monetary regionalism. Regions that wish to strengthen their co-operation in monetary and financial affairs today have the option of monetary regionalism without trade agreement. East Asian region will become an increasingly important domain within which to explore enhanced protection against financial crises. And as Korea seems to play a crucial role in building regional integration among ASEAN＋3(Korea, China and Japan) countries, alternative policy for Korean economy to be the North-east Asian Economic Base need to be schemed on the basis of Balassian as well as monetary regionalism.

• 정보보호학회논문지
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• 제28권6호
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• pp.1475-1487
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• 2018

금융 회사 전자금융 거래 시 송금인이 수취인에게 자금을 이체할 경우 송금인은 출금 계좌 번호와 출금 금액 그리고 금융 회사에 사전 등록한 비밀번호 또는 금융 회사가 사전에 배부한 인증 매체에서 제공하는 정보 등 이용자 인증 정보를 입력하여 계좌 이체를 수행한다. 그러나, 현재 이러한 금융 회사와 송금인간 발생하는 이용자 인증 중심의 단방향 거래는 착오 송금 또는 보이스피싱 사기 거래 등 사고 위험에 노출되어 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 송금인과 금융회사 이외 수취인과도 자금 이체 거래 시 거래 내용을 공유하여 수취인이 확인 후 응답하면 이체가 성립될 수 있도록 상호합의가 가능한 온라인 전자금융 2-WAY 거래인증 모델을 제안한다 기존 단방향 전자금융 거래 이체 방법을 양방향 거래 방법으로 개선하여 착오 송금, 보이스피싱 사기 예방 이외 대여금 거래, 계약 거래 등 다양한 용도로 활용하여 금융 회사 계좌이체 거래 이용자의 불편 감소 및 편리성 강화와 금융 회사의 P2P거래 활성화 등의 기대효과를 창출하고자 한다.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.96-114
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• 2023

Purpose - This paper elucidates a nexus between the occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of economic growth by distinguishing the likelihood of rare events from stochastic volatility. We provide new empirical facts based on a quarterly time series. In particular, we focus on the role of financial liberalization in spreading the economic crisis in developing countries. Design/methodology - We use quarterly data on consumption expenditure (real per capita consumption) from 44 countries, including advanced and developing countries, ending in the fourth quarter of 2020. We estimate the likelihood of rare event occurrences and stochastic volatility for countries using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method developed by Barro and Jin (2021). We present our estimation results for the relationship between rare disaster events, stochastic volatility, and growth volatility. Findings - We find the global common disaster event, the COVID-19 pandemic, and thirteen country-specific disaster events. Consumption falls by about 7% on average in the first quarter of a disaster and by 4% in the long run. The occurrence of rare disaster events and the volatility of gross domestic product (GDP) growth are positively correlated (4.8%), whereas the rare events and GDP growth rate are negatively correlated (-12.1%). In particular, financial liberalization has played an important role in exacerbating the adverse impact of both rare disasters and financial market instability on growth volatility. Several case studies, including the case of South Korea, provide insights into the cause of major financial crises in small open developing countries, including the Asian currency crisis of 1998. Originality/value - This paper presents new empirical facts on the relationship between the occurrence of rare disaster events (or stochastic volatility) and growth volatility. Increasing data frequency allows for greater accuracy in assessing a country's specific risk. Our findings suggest that financial market and institutional stability can be vital for buffering against rare disaster shocks. It is necessary to preemptively strengthen the foundation for financial stability in developing countries and increase the quality of the information provided to markets.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.291-314
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• 2012

This paper attempts to investigate to what extent English proficiency can boost international trade in services. To achieve this purpose, this paper estimates the determinants of services trade including language variables with the aggregated and disaggregated data for nine different subsectors of OECD countries. The empirical tests are based on a theory-based gravity model derived from Anderson and von Wincoop. The findings show that English proficiency has a significant influence on services trade, while other languages such as French and German have only weak and mixed effects. In particular, communication, financial, commercial, insurance, and business services are revealed to be the most impacted by the level of English proficiency. The results imply that governments can use their English policies to promote international trade in services.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제49권
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• pp.409-434
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• 2011

SWIFT has designed Trade Services Utility(TSU) to meet the new paradigm of electronic trade. The Trade Services Utility is a matching and workflow application that sits on the SWIFT network. The TSU is designed to help banks offer advanced supply chain services to their corporate customers who are involved in open account trading. Nowadays, the Bank payment obligation(BPO) can optionally be included in a baseline by mutual consent. The BPO is an irrevocable and conditional obligation of an obligor bank(buyers bank) to pay a specified amount to seller's bank according to an established baseline of a single TSU transaction. Therefore, SWIFT enables its customers to automate and standardise financial transactions, thereby lowering costs, reducing operational risk and eliminating inefficiencies from their operations. Whereas, Banks can use the core functionality of the Trade Services Utility to offer competitive services that complement existing services. But SWIFT need to come up with the measures of activating the TSU BPO. So, this paper is to introduce TSU BPO and check the measures for the activation of the TSU BPO under the electronic trade environment.

• 무역상무연구
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• 제13권
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• pp.933-977
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• 2000

BOLERO project and TradeCard System are attracted public attention as new settlement method that is able to substitute for documentary letter of credit. BOLERO is the business processes and methods, together with the digital information system, which are provided by Bolero International for communicating Messages and Documents and facilitating business transactions. TradeCard aim to make international business-to-business e-Commerce easy, fast, inexpensive and secure while innovating current documentary compliance and financial settlement mechanisms. The main purpose of this paper is to search the possibility of paperless trade. Since, this paper examine the international legal feasibility of these systems and compare the strength and weakness.

• 무역학회지
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• 제44권1호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2019

This study aims to analyze the effects of trade on human capital accumulation and economic growth in Korean manufacturing industry. The results of empirical analysis by dynamic panel model are as follows. The increase in exports of skilled labor intensive industries has a positive effect on human capital and economic growth, and the impact of import on human capital accumulation and economic growth has alst a positive impact. The exports of unskilled intensive labor industries have a negative impact on human capital accumulation and economic growth. Imports of unskilled labor intensive industries have negative on human capital accumulation and economic growth. It is difficult to derive statistically significant results for the effects of trade on human capital accumulation and economic growth before and after 2008. However, as a result of the financial crisis in 2008, it seems that the effects have decreased since 2008.

• 무역학회지
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• 제45권4호
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• pp.171-194
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• 2020

Although there is a lot of literature on the effectiveness of regional trade agreements(RTAs), it is usually analyzed only using trade-related theories and data. However, this paper has a differentiation in that we examine the linkage between international trade and financial markets through the stock markets reactions when the trade agreements related news arrived. Specifically, using an event study, we look into the Korea-US free trade agreement(KORUS FTA) which is the most commercially significant FTA in almost two decades for both the countries. Korean stock market generally responded more sensitively to FTA news than the US stock market, especially in 'Auto & Parts', 'Electrical Equipment' and 'Chemicals' industries. And the investors' perception toward the effect of KORUS FTA on Korean industries changed from negative to positive as negotiations proceed. Korea has a comparative advantage in the production of labor-intensive goods relative to US, but the economies of scale hypothesis does not hold.

• 무역학회지
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.211-232
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• 2022

Due to the impact of the public health event COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese futures market showed "Black Swan". This has brought the unpredictable into the economic environment with many commodities falling by the daily limit, while gold performed well and closed in the sunshine(Yan-Li and Rui Qian-Wang, 2020). Volatility is integral part of financial market. As an emerging market and a special precious metal, it is important to forecast return of gold futures price. This study selected data of the SHFE gold futures returns and conducted an empirical analysis based on the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type model. Comparing the statistics of AIC, SC and H-QC, ARMA (12,9) model was selected as the best model. But serial correlation in the squared returns suggests conditional heteroskedasticity. Next part we established the autoregressive moving average ARMA-GARCH-type model to analysis whether Volatility Clustering and the leverage effect exist in the Chinese gold futures market. we consider three different distributions of innovation to explain fat-tailed features of financial returns. Additionally, the error degree and prediction results of different models were evaluated in terms of mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Theil inequality coefficient(TIC) and root mean-squared error (RMSE). The results show that the ARMA(12,9)-TGARCH(2,2) model under Student's t-distribution outperforms other models when predicting the Chinese gold futures return series.