• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권6호
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• pp.2084-2093
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• 2022

Probabilistic safety assessment is widely used to quantify the risks of nuclear power plants and their uncertainties. When the lognormal distribution describes the uncertainties of basic events, the uncertainty of the top event in a fault tree is approximated with the sum of lognormal random variables after minimal cutsets are obtained, and rare-event approximation is applied. As handling complicated analytic expressions for the sum of lognormal random variables is challenging, several approximation methods, especially Monte Carlo simulation, are widely used in practice for uncertainty analysis. In this study, a theoretical approach for analyzing the sum of lognormal random variables using an efficient numerical integration method is proposed for uncertainty analysis in probability safety assessments. The change of variables from correlated random variables with a complicated region of integration to independent random variables with a unit hypercube region of integration is applied to obtain an efficient numerical integration. The theoretical advantages of the proposed method over other approximation methods are shown through a benchmark problem. The proposed method provides an accurate and efficient approach to calculate the uncertainty of the top event in probabilistic safety assessment when the uncertainties of basic events are described with lognormal random variables.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제16권12호
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• pp.8700-8706
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• 2015

고속철도차량 동력대차의 1차 구동장치는 모터 감속기와 견인전동기로 구성한다. 모터 감속기와 견인전동기는 기계적으로 일체형 결합 구조이지만, 상이한 기술 요구사항으로 인하여 이들의 완전 분해정비 주기는 서로 다르다(모터 감속기의 완전 분해정비 주기: $1.8{\times}10^6km$, 견인전동기의 완전 분해정비 주기: $2.5{\times}10^6km$). 따라서 불필요한 정비 횟수를 감소하기 위하여 신뢰성 중심 유지보수 관점에서 최적의 완전 분해정비 주기의 산정이 중요하다. 본 연구에서는 실제 유지보수 정비이력으로부터 두 구성품들에 대한 고장 결함나무 분석을 수행하고 각 하부부품들의 치명도를 고려한 고장률을 각각 평가하였다. 두 구성품에 대한 최적의 동일한 완전분해 정비주기는 기존의 총 예방정비 비용을 감소하기 위하여 유전자 알고리즘으로 부터 얻었다. 이 알고리즘에서 각 개체를 구성하는 유전자는 최소 예방 정비주기이며, 이의 조합으로 구성된 세대별 개체의 적합도함수는 총 정비비용의 역수로 공식화하여 얻는다. 최소공배수에 의한 방법은 기존 대비 4%만 감소하지만, 유전자 알고리즘에 의한 최적의 동일 완전분해 정비주기는 225만km로서 기존 방법의 총비용과 비교하여 약 14% 감소하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제28권5호
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• pp.440-451
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• 1996

With emphasis on safety, this study addresses for better design condition for the cooling system in a wet-type interim spent fuel storage facility, using a probabilistic safety assessment method. To incorporate the design renovation into the design phase, a simple approach is proposed. By taking the cooling system of a reference design, a fault tree analysis was performed to identify the weak point of the considered system, and then basic factors for design renovation were defined. A total of 21 design alternatives were selected through the combination of the basic factors. Finally, the optimum design alternative for the cooling system is derived by means of the cost and effect analysis based on the estimated cost, system reliability and assumed probabilistic safety criteria. With the assumption that the failure frequency of at-reactor spent fuel cooling system compiles with probabilistic safety criteria for the interim spent fuel cooling system, it was shown that the optimum alternative should have l00% cooling loop redundancy with one pump per cooling loop and a cleanup system installed separately from the main loop. Furthermore, it also should be classified into safety system. The result of this study can be used as a useful basis to identify factors of safety concern and to establish design requirements in the future. The method also can be applied for other nuclear facilities.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제28권5호
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• pp.10-14
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• 2013

This paper is aimed to investigate the actual conditions of standalone PV(Photovoltaics) streetlight in public place and analyze cause of failure and derive the method of decrease for standalone PV streetlight. The cost of installing standalone PV streetlight in a public for the safety and convenience of life is expensive(300 million won per unit). Management of standalone PV streetlight is important because it is operating system itself, after installation, but concern degree of management is very low and development of technology has not been done. Accordingly, standalone PV streetlight in public place is not operate in night, this phenomenon is lasted for several days to months. Therefore this study, for standalone PV streetlight constantly to keep the normal operation, investigation conducted to check status of standalone PV streetlight(50 units), the voltage of the main parts and analyze the cause of the failure. In addition, the improvement of standalone PV streetlight is suggested by using FTA(fault tree analysis).

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.270-282
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• 2001

A simple measure of uncertainty importance based on normalized metric distance to quantify the entire change of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) has been developed for use in probability safety assessments (PSAs). The metric distance measure developed in this study reflects the relative impact of distributional changes of inputs on the change of an output distribution, white most of the existing uncertainty importance measures reflect the magnitude of relative contribution of input uncertainties to the output uncertainty. Normalization is made to make the metric distance measure a dimensionless quantity. The present measure has been evaluated analytically for various analytical distributions to examine its characteristics. To illustrate the applicability and strength of the present measure, two examples are provided. The first example is an application of the present measure to a typical problem of a system fault tree analysis and the second one is for a hypothetical non-linear model. Comparisons of the present result with those obtained by existing uncertainty importance measures show that the metric distance measure is a useful tool to express the measure of uncertainty importance in terms of the relative impact of distributional changes of inputs on the change of an output distribution.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제33권6호
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• pp.37-41
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• 2018

Process safety technology has developed from qualitative methods such as HAZOP (hazard and operability study) to semi-quantitative methods such as LOPA (layer of protection analysis), and quantitative methods are actively studied these days. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is often based on fault tree analysis (FTA). FTA is efficient, but difficult to apply when failure events are not independent of each other. This problem can be avoided using a Markov process (MP). MP requires definition of all possible states, and thus, generally, is more complicated than FTA. A method is proposed in this work that uses an MP model and a Weibull distribution model in order to construct a reliability model for multiple dependent failures. As a case study, a pressure safety valve (PSV) is considered, for which there are three kinds of failure, i.e. open failure, close failure, and gas tight failure. According to recently reported inspection results, open failure and close failure are dependent on each other. A reliability model for a PSV group is proposed in this work that is to reproduce these results. It is expected that the application of the proposed method can be expanded to QRA of various systems that have partially dependent multiple failure states.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.718-723
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• 2008

베어링은 각종 설비에서 활용되는 중요한 기계요소 중 하나이다. 설비고장의 상당수는 베어링의 결함이나 파손에 기인하고 있다. 따라서 베어링에 대한 온라인모니터링기술은 설비의 정지를 예방하고 손실을 줄이는 데 필수적이다. 본 논문은 진동 신호를 이용하여 베어링의 상태를 예측하기 위한 온라인모니터링에 대해 연구한다. 프로파일로 주어지는 진동신호는 이산 웨이블릿 변환을 통해 분석되고, 분해수준별 웨이블릿 계수로부터 얻은 통계적 특징 중 유의한 것을 선별하고자 분산분석 (ANOVA)을 이용한다. 선별된 특징벡터는 Support Vector Machine (SVM)의 입력이 되는 데, 본 논문에서는 다중클래스 분류문제를 다루기 위한 계층적 SVM 트리를 제안한다. 수치실험 결과, 제안된 방법은 베어링의 결함을 분류하는 데 우수한 성능을 갖는 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국항행학회논문지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.179-188
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• 2018

항공전자 시스템의 개발할 때 항공 사고를 예방하기 위해서 SAE ARP4761 (민간 항공 시스템 및 장비 안전성 평가 프로세스 수행 방법 및 지침) 규격에 명시된 안전성 분석 및 평가를 수행한다. 안전성 분석은 시스템의 정상상태가 아닌 비정상상태에 대한 지식과 다른 규격들 간의 상호 연관성에 대한 지식이 요구된다. 때문에, 안전인증규격의 준수를 입증하는 자료를 자동으로 출력하는 도구가 필요하다. 본 연구는 규격의 안전성 분석 절차를 도식화하고, 안전 분석 CAD 도구들을 개별 절차에 적용하는 방법을 연구하였다. 예시 연구로서, ARP4761 부록의 여객기용 휠 제동 시스템 (WBS; wheel brake system)을 대상으로 ARP4761분석을 수행하였다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.186-191
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• 1987

본 논문에서는, 임의의 계통신뢰도를 매우 단순화시킬 수 있는 직접 모의 방법을 제시하였다. 계통의 비가용도 측면에서, 본 방법은 고장수목을 하드웨어적으로 구성함으로서 계산과정을 단순화시킬 수 있었다. 계산도구로는 프랑스의 Laviron씨가 개발한 ESCAF을 사용하였다. 금번 연구에서는 PWR 발전소의 OP$\Delta$T St OT$\Delta$T 찬넬의 비가용도를 IEEE std. 500-1977의 제시된 자료를 근거로 치산하였으며, 그 값은 8.17576$\times$$10^{-9}$ 로 나타났다. 또한 계산시간은 25초 미만이었다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.102-110
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• 2019

This paper describes the work and results of the preliminary Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for a research reactor in the design phase. This preliminary PSA was undertaken to assess the level of safety for the design of a research reactor and to evaluate whether it is probabilistically safe to operate and reliable to use. The scope of the PSA described here is a Level 1 PSA which addresses the risks associated with core damage. After reviewing the documents and its conceptual design, eight typical initiating events are selected regarding internal events during the normal operation of the reactor. Simple fault tree models for the PSA are developed instead of the detailed model at this conceptual design stage. A total of 32 core damage accident sequences for an internal event analysis were identified and quantified using the AIMS-PSA. LOCA-I has a dominant contribution to the total CDF by a single initiating event. The CDF from the internal events of a research reactor is estimated to be 7.38E-07/year. The CDF for the representative initiating events is less than 1.0E-6/year even though conservative assumptions are used in reliability data. The conceptual design of the research reactor is designed to be sufficiently safe from the viewpoint of safety.