• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.717-729
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• 2021

This paper examines the efficacy of the default risk factor in an emerging market context using the Fama-French five-factor model. Our aim is to test whether the Fama-French five-factor model augmented with a default risk factor improves the predictability of returns of portfolios sorted on the firm's characteristics as well as on industry. The default risk factor is constructed by estimating the probability of default using a hybrid version of dynamic panel probit and artificial neural network (ANN) to proxy default risk. This study also provides evidence on the temporal stability of risk premiums obtained using the Fama-MacBeth approach. Using a sample of 3,806 firm-year observations on non-financial listed companies of Pakistan over 2006-2015 we found that the augmented model performed better when tested across size-investment-default sorted portfolios. The investment factor contains some default-related information, but default risk is independently priced and bears a significantly positive risk premium. The risk premiums are also found temporally stable over the full sample and more recent sample period 2010-2015 as evidence by the Fama-MacBeth regressions. The finding suggests that the default risk factor is not a useless factor and due to mispricing, default risk anomaly prevails in the Pakistani equity market.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.21-34
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• 2018

The study tests the Fama and French three-factor model by using the newly created Islamic equity style indices. Based on a dataset from May 2006 to April 2011, the three-factor model is tested based on returns of Islamic unit trust funds using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) methodology. The sample period is also divided between periods before and after the Global Financial Crisis in August 2008 to test for robustness, and the Bai and Perron (2003) multiple structural break test was used to determine the structural break in the series. The analysis shows that the Fama and French model is valid for Islamic unit trust funds before and after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The result further indicates the reversal of size effect. As for trading strategies, value funds outperform growth funds by annualized 3.13 percent for the full period. During pre-crisis period, value funds perform better than growth funds while in post-crisis, size factor yields better return than other strategies. As policy suggestion, fund managers need to be aware of the reversal of size effect, and they need to ensure a more transparent stock selection process so that investors can make an informed decision in their asset allocation.

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.11-19
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• 2022

This study examines the role of economic uncertainty in stock price determination in the domestic stock market. To this end, we analyzed the relationship between economic uncertainty indices at home and abroad (USA, China) and stock returns for non-financial companies in Korea from January 2000 to 2017. For the analysis model, the 3-factor model of Fama and French (1992) and the 5-factor model including momentum and liquidity were used. As a result of the analysis, a portfolio with a high beta of economic uncertainty showed higher stock returns than a portfolio with a low beta. This was the same as the US analysis result. Also, the analysis results using the US uncertainty index were more significant than the regression analysis results using the Korean economic uncertainty index.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.21-55
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• 1997

본 연구는 기업규모, 장부가치/시장가치 비율, 순이익/주가 비율, 현금흐름/주가 비율, 레버리지 등 기본적 변수를 사용하여 주식수익률에 유의적인 변수를 확인하고, 또한 Fama and French(1993) 등에 의해서 제시된 다요인모형(multi-factor model)이 한국주식시장에서 적용가능한 지를 살펴보았다. 이를 위하여 본 연구에서는 Fama and MacBeth(1973)의 횡단면회귀모형과 Black, Jensen, and Scholes (1972)의 시계열모형을 사용하였으며, 실증분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 먼저 횡단면분석결과에 의하면, 장부가치/시장가치 비율(BE/ME), 현금흐름/주가 비율(C/P) 등이 주식수익률의 횡단면적 차이를 설명할 수 있는 유의적인 변수로 나타났다. 그리고 통계적 의미에서는 1월효과가 존재한다고 보기 어려우나, 경제적 의미에서 1월효과가 존재하는 것으로 생각된다. 시계열분석결과에 의하면, 시장요인, 기업규모요인, 장부가치/시장가치요인(또는 현금흐름/주가요인) 등의 3요인에 의해서 국내 주식수익률의 공통적 변동을 잘 설명할 수 있다. 즉 국내 증권시장에서도 Fama and French(1993)의 3요인모형이 성립될 수 있는 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.13 no.9
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• pp.37-45
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• 2015

Purpose - This paper's aim is to investigate whether or not gross profitability explains the cross-sectional variation of the stock returns in the Korean stock market. Gross profitability is an alternative profitability measure proposed by Novy-Marx in 2013 to predict cross-sectional variation of stock returns in the US. He shows that the gross profitability adds explanatory power to the Fama-French 3 factor model. Interestingly, gross profitability is negatively correlated with the book-to-market ratio. By confirming the gross profitability premium in the Korean stock market, we may provide some implications regarding the well-known value premium. In addition, our empirical results may provide opportunities for the fund distribution industry to promote brand new styles of funds. Research design, data, and methodology - For our empirical analysis, we collect monthly market prices of all the companies listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) of the Korea Exchanges (KRX). Our sample period covers July1994 to December2014. The data from the company financial statementsare provided by the financial information company WISEfn. First, using Fama-Macbeth cross-sectional regression, we investigate the relation between gross profitability and stock return performance. For robustness in analyzing the performance of the gross profitability strategy, we consider value weighted portfolio returns as well as equally weighted portfolio returns. Next, using Fama-French 3 factor models, we examine whether or not the gross profitability strategy generates excess returns when firmsize and the book-to-market ratio are controlled. Finally, we analyze the effect of firm size and the book-to-market ratio on the gross profitability strategy. Results - First, through the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression, we show that gross profitability has almost the same explanatory power as the book-to-market ratio in explaining the cross-sectional variation of the Korean stock market. Second, we find evidence that gross profitability is a statistically significant variable for explaining cross-sectional stock returns when the size and the value effect are controlled. Third, we show that gross profitability, which is positively correlated with stock returns and firm size, is negatively correlated with the book-to-market ratio. From the perspective of portfolio management, our results imply that since the gross profitability strategy is a distinctive growth strategy, value strategies can be improved by hedging with the gross profitability strategy. Conclusions - Our empirical results confirm the existence of a gross profitability premium in the Korean stock market. From the perspective of the fund distribution industry, the gross profitability portfolio is worthy of attention. Since the value strategy portfolio returns are negatively correlated with the gross profitability strategy portfolio returns, by mixing both portfolios, investors could be better off without additional risk. However, the profitable firms are dissimilar from the value firms (high book-to-market ratio firms); therefore, an alternative factor model including gross profitability may help us understand the economic implications of the well-known anomalies such as value premium, momentum, and low volatility. We reserve these topics for future research.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.127-132
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• 2015

This study attempts to empirically investigate if relative momentum strategy is effective in the Korean stock market. The sample of the study is comprised of companies which are traded in both Kospi and Kosdaq stock markets in Korea for the period between 2001~2014. The study observes that the momentum strategy buying past winner stocks and selling past loser stocks is negatively correlated with the value strategy buying value stocks with high book to market ratio and selling glamour stocks with low book to market ratio. And each strategy is alternatively effective from period to period. The study demonstrates that the momentum strategy is effective when both strategies which are negatively correlated are treated as one system by estimating Fama and French's[1] 3 factor regression model.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.379-396
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• 2021

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study the rational payoff from the standpoint of foreign investors and the government when the government issues GDP-linked bonds to foreign investors. Design/methodology/approach - In this paper, the prices of 12 types of GDP-linked bond structures, which are classified according to the calculation cycle of the rate of change of linked GDP, the currency issued, and whether options are embedded, were evaluated. The Fama-French 3-factor model and the GMM-SDF model are used in the asset pricing model, and domestic and overseas investors used different basis assets. Findings - The KRW premium for US investors is estimated to be 43bp on a quarterly basis and 30bp on an annual basis, respectively, meaning that when the government issues bonds in KRW, the interest rate paid to US investors will be reduced by 30bp to 160bp (annually converted). Using the Fama-French 3 factor model, the KRW premium is the risk premium for the US market beta, meaning that if US investors do not intend to invest in US market beta, it is advantageous to receive an additional interest rate by investing in USD-denominated GDP-linked bonds. Korea's GDP- linked bond give US investors diversified investment utility, so they are willing to incorporate Korean GDP-linked bonds even if -150bp of interest is deducted from the structure issued to Korean investors. And as a result of estimating the value of the option through the GDP-linked bond with options that provides a floor for guaranteeing the principal, the value of the option linked to the annual GDP issued in dollars was the lowest. Research implications or Originality - Issuing dollar-denominated GDP-linked bonds linked to annual GDP with the option of guaranteeing the principal by the government is a way to increase investment opportunities for US investors and achieve financial stability of the government.

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.127-147
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• 2004

This paper examines the time-series relations among expected return, risk, and book-to-market(B/M) at the portfolio level. The time-series analysis is a natural alternative to cross-sectional regressions. An alternative feature of the time-series regressions is that they focus on changes in expected returns, not on average returns. Using the time-series analysis, we can directly test whether the three-factor model explains time-varying expected returns better than the characteristic-based model. These results should help distinguish between the risk and mispricing stories. We find that B/M is strongly associated with changes in risk, as measured by the Fama and French(1993) three-factor model. After controlling for changes in risk, B/M contains little additional information about expected returns. The evidence suggests that the three-factor model explains time-varying expected returns better than the characteristic-based model.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.10
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• pp.6511-6516
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• 2015

This paper examines the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility(IVOL) puzzle and trading volumes by trader types in the Korean stock market. The data set includes all stock in both KRX and KOSDAQ for the period from January 1999 through December 2013. Idiosyncratic volatility is measured by using the Fama-French's three-factor model. Traders are classified into individual, institution, and foreign trader. We construct (5X5) portfolios based on each trader's net buying and idiosyncratic volatility. We find that there are some special portfolios that show the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle. For individual investors, top net buying portfolios show clear the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle. However, for institution and foreign investors, lowest net buying portfolio show the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle. This results imply that the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle in the Korean stock market is mainly caused by individual investors.

• Journal of Industrial Convergence
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• v.20 no.11
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• pp.75-83
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• 2022

This study analyzes whether investor sentiment and liquidity explain the momentum phenomenon in the Korean stock market and whether it is a risk factor for the asset pricing model. The empirical analysis used the monthly returns of non-financial companies listed on the stock market during the period 2000-2021. As a result of the analysis, first, it was found that there is a momentum effect in Korea. This is the same result as the previous study, and since 2000, the momentum effect has been accepted as a general phenomenon in the Korean stock market. Second, if we look at the portfolio based on investor sentiment, investor sentiment is influencing momentum. In particular, when investor sentiment is negative, the return on the winner portfolio is high. Third, as a result of the analysis based on liquidity, the momentum effect disappears and a reversal effect appears. Fourth, it was found that investor sentiment and liquidity influence the momentum effect. This is a result of the strong momentum effect in the illiquid stock group with negative investor sentiment. Fifth, as a result of analyzing the effect of each factor on stock returns, it was found that both investor psychology and liquidity factors have a significant impact on returns. The estimated results provide evidence that the inclusion of these two factors in the Carhart four-factor model significantly increases the predictive power of the model. Therefore, it can be said that investor sentiment factors and liquidity factors are important factors in determining stock returns.