• Title/Summary/Keyword: Failure distribution

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Evaluation of the Interruption Cost of Distribution Power Systems Considering the Failure Source and the Composite Customer Interruption Cost

  • Park, Sang-Bong;Nam, Kee-Young;Kim, Dae-Kyeong;Jeong, Seong-Hwan
    • KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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    • v.3A no.3
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    • pp.124-129
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    • 2003
  • As the power industry moves towards open competition, there has been a call for methodology to evaluate power system reliability by using composite interruption cost. This paper presents algorithms to evaluate the interruption cost of distribution power systems by taking into consideration the failure source and the composite customer interruption cost. From the consumer's standpoint, the composite customer interruption cost is considered as the most valuable index to estimate the reliability of a power distribution system. This paper presents new algorithms that take into account the load by customer type and failure probability by distribution facilities while calculating the amount of unserved energy by customer type. Finally, evaluation results of unserved energy and system interruption cost based on composite customer interruption cost are shown in detail.

A Note on Determining Confidence Level in Reliability Test for Assuring Bx-Life

  • Lim, Jae-Hak;kwon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.262-266
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we consider the problem of determining the confidence level in zero-failure reliability sampling plans when the life distribution is Weibull distribution with a shape parameter m and a scale parameter ${\eta}$. We introduce zero-failure reliability sampling plans for Weibull distribution and investigate some characteristics of zero-failure reliability sampling plans. Finally, We propose new guideline for determining the confidence level in zero-failure reliability sampling plans for assuring $B_x-life$.

Reliability Analysis of Exhaust Bellows Based on ALT (가속 수명 시험을 이용한 자동차용 배기 벨로우즈의 수명 해석)

  • Kim, Hyung-Min;Wee, Shin-Hwan;Kim, Tae-Soo;Kim, Sung-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.1667-1672
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    • 2007
  • In order to assess the reliability of the exhaust bellows for automobiles, accelerated life test model and procedure are developed. By using this method, failure mechanism and life distribution are analyzed. The main results are as follows; i) the main failure mechanism is crack or breakage of inner flexible tube by shaken displacement at shear direction. ii) temperature is a second factor to affect a failure. iii) the life distribution of exhaust bellows is fitted well to Weibull life distribution and the shape parameter is 13.3 on condition of shaken displacement and $600^{\circ}C$

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A Study on the Surge Analysis considering Surge Arrester and Grounding System in the Combined Distribution System (혼합 배전계통에서 피뢰기적용과 접지시스템 변경을 고려한 서지 해석에 관한 연구)

  • Yun, Chang-Sub;Lee, Jong-Beom;Kim, Beong-Suk
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2006.07a
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    • pp.204-205
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    • 2006
  • This paper describes the protective ability of lightning arrestor in combined distribution system with power cable. To evaluate the protective ability, change of arrestor and grounding location are considered. On the other hand, arrestor developed by Cooper Power Systems for underground power cable system, is considered to evaluate surge protective ability as in underground system, when arrestor occurs failure has overhead line. The result shows that lightning arrestor in combined distribution system with power cable protect effectively when failure at arrestor in overhead line. On the other hand, arrestor developed by Cooper Power Systems for underground power cable system, is considered to evaluate surge protective ability in underground distribution system, when arrestor of overhead line has failure. The result shows that lightning arrestor installed in underground cable can effectively protected cables from surge when arrestor of overhead line has failure. And also even though grounding locations are decreased, it is revealed that protective ability is nearly similar.

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Failure Zone Estimation from the correlation between the Temperature in Slope and the Soil Nail Strain (지중온도와 변형율과의 상관관계를 통한 활동영역의 추정)

  • Chang, Ki-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Geophysical Society
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.123-130
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    • 2005
  • It is necessary, in the light of the importance of long-term slope stability problem, to develop a simple method or tool which can figure out the possible failure zone resulted from weathering effect and other factors. The FBG sensor system is used to estimate the correlations between the temperature and the slope in Kimhae, and to find a failure zone in slopes effectively. This research is to seek for the correlation between the soil temperature distribution and the strain distribution in a active zone by analyzing the data from the in-situ measurement so that the possible failure zone should be well defined based on the correlation. For instance, the zone of high temperature fluctuation can be regarded as one of the possible sliding zone due to the weathering effect while the constant temperature depth of the ground, if exists would not be relatively affected by the weathering process.

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A Condition Based Maintenance Model for Systems with Weibull Distributed Deterioration (와이블 분포로 열화하는 시스템의 상태에 기초한 정비모형)

  • Kong, Myung Bock;Park, Il Gwang
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.70-75
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    • 2007
  • This paper discusses condition based preventive replacement for deteriorating systems. The system continuouslydeteriorates in time and fails at any deterioration level which is always monitored, It is replaced at failure or atsome deteriorated level preventively before failure. The deterioration process is represented by a Weibulldistribution with a time-linear scale parameter. The cost rate function is formed considering replacement costand opportunity loss cost and deterioration dependent failure distribution, If the system has an increasingdeterioration dependent failure rate, the optimal deterioration level for preventive replacement can be determinedfrom minimizing the cost rate. An illustrative example is given for a Weibull deterioration dependent failuredistribution.

Optimum Replacement Times for a Steam Generator (증기발생기 최적 교체시기 결정에 관한 연구)

  • Hur, Jung-Hoon;Yun, Won-Young
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.89-98
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    • 2002
  • This paper considers the optimum replacement times of a steam generator in nuclear power plant with failure data. It is assumed that the failure pattern of units is given as a Weibull distribution and repair and periodic preventive maintenance are performed periodically. The maximum likelihood method is used to estimated the Weibull parameters of failure distribution from failure data. Relpacement, output-decresing and maintenance costs are considered to determine the optimal replacement times by simulation. Numerical examples are included with actual failure data and cost estimators.

Failure Probability Models of Concrete Subjected to Split Tension Repeated- Loads (쪼갬인장 반복하중을 받는 콘크리트의 파괴확률 모델)

  • 김동호;김경진;이봉학;윤경구
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.311-314
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    • 2003
  • Concrete structures such as bridge, pavement, airfield, and offshore structure are normally subjected to repeated load. This paper proposes a failure probability models of concrete subjected to split tension repeated-loads, based on experimental results. The fatigue tests were performed at the stress ratio of 0.1, the loading shape of sine, the frequency of 20Hz, and the stress levels of 90, 80 and 70%. The fatigue test specimen was 150mm in diameter and 75mm in thickness. The fatigue analysis did not include which exceeded 0.9 of statistical coefficient of determination values or did not failure at 2$\times$$10^6$ cycles. The graphical method, the moment method, and maximum likelihood estimation method were used to obtain Weibull distribution parameters. The goodness-of-fit test by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was acceptable 5% level of significance. As a result, the proposed failure probability model based on the two-parameter($\alpha and \mu$) Weibull distribution was good enough to estimate accurately the fatigue life subjected to tension mode.

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A Feasibility Study on the Characterization of Incipient Insulator Failure for Distribution Fault Prediction (배전선로 고장예지를 위한 애자의 고장징후 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Jeong-Hoon;Kim, Tae-Won;Park, Seong-Taek;Kim, Chang-Jong
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1997.11a
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    • pp.245-249
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    • 1997
  • A feasibility study on the characterization of incipient insulator failure for distribution fault prediction is presented. In this study, real distribution data was collected and analyzed to isolate incipient failure signatures or parameters which were expected to show distinct behaviors before and after failure incident. Several signal analysis methods were applied to isolate the parameters and a new strategy of analysis, the event-date concept, was also applied to find a relationship between non-harmonic and high frequency signal activities and imminent insulator failures.

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Safety Analysis of Storm Sewer Using Probability of Failure and Multiple Failure Mode (파괴확률과 다중파괴유형을 이용한 우수관의 안전성 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyuk-Jae;Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.11
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    • pp.967-976
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    • 2010
  • AFDA (Approximate Full Distribution Approach) model of FORM (First-Order Reliability Model) which can quantitatively calculate the probability that storm sewer reach to performance limit state was developed in this study. It was defined as a failure if amount of inflow exceed the capacity of storm sewer. Manning's equation and rational equation were used to determine the capacity and inflow of reliability function. Furthermore, statistical characteristics and distribution for the random variables were analyzed as a reliability analysis. It was found that the statistical distribution for annual maximum rainfall intensity of 10 cities in Korea is matched well with Gumbel distribution. Reliability model developed in this study was applied to Y shaped storm sewer system to calculate the probability that storm sewer may exceed the performance limit state. Probability of failure according to diameter was calculated using Manning's equation. Especially, probability of failure of storm sewer in Mungyeong and Daejeon was calculated using rainfall intensity of 50-year return period. It was found that probability of failure can be significantly increased if diameter is decreased below the original diameter. Therefore, cleaning the debris in sewer pipes to maintain the original pipe diameter should be one of the best ways to reduce the probability of failure of storm sewer. In sewer system, two sewer pipes can flow into one sewer pipe. For this case, probability of system failure was calculated using multiple failure mode. Reliability model developed in this study can be applied to design, maintenance, management, and control of storm sewer system.