• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• 제29권9호
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• pp.5-15
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• 2013

In this paper, the unsaturated slope stability analysis considering suction stress (Lu and Godt, 2008) was introduced and the results applied for a certain sand slope were analyzed. The unsaturated slope stability analysis considering suction stress can analyze both conditions of steady infiltration and no infiltration, and it can estimate the safety factor of slope as a function of soil depth. Also, the influence of weathering phenomenon at a certain depth from the ground surface can be considered. The stability analysis considering suction stress was applied to the unsaturated infinite slope composed of sand with the relative density of 60%. The suction stress under no infiltration condition was affected by ground water table until a certain influencing depth. However, the suction stress under steady infiltration condition was affected by seepage throughout the soils. Especially, the maximum suction stress was displayed around ground surface. The factor of safety in the infinite slope under no infiltration condition rapidly increased and decreased within the influence zone of ground water table. As a result of slope stability analysis, the factor of safety is less than 1 at the depth of 2.4 m below the ground surface. It means that the probability of slope failure is too high within the range of depths. The factor of safety under steady infiltration condition is greater than that under no infiltration condition due to the change of suction stress induced by seepage. As the steady infiltration rate of precipitation was getting closer to the saturated hydraulic conductivity, the factor of safety decreased. In case of the steady infiltration rate of precipitation with $-1.8{\times}10^{-3}cm/s$, the factor of safety is less than 1 at the depths between 0.2 m and 3 m below the ground surface. It means that the probability of slope failure is too high within the range of depths, and type of slope failure is likely to be shallow landslides.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.86-92
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• 2012

Point estimate method has a less accuracy than Monte Carlo simulation that is usually considered as an exact probabilistic method, but this method still remains popular in probability-based reliability assessment in geotechnical and rock engineering, because it significantly reduce the number of sampling points and produces the statistical moments of a performance function in a reasonable accuracy. In the present study, we investigated the accuracy and applicability of point estimate methods proposed by Rosenblueth and Zhou & Nowak by comparing the results of these two methods with those of Monte Carlo simulations. The comparison was carried out for the problem of a lined circular tunnel in an elastic medium where an closed-form analytical solution is given. The comparison results showed that despite the non-linearity of the analytical solution, the statistical moments calculated by the point estimate methods and the Monte Carlo simulations agreed well with an average error of roughly 1-2%. This average error demonstrates the applicability of the two point estimate methods for the probabilistic reliability assessment of underground structures in combination with numerical analysis.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• 제28권6호
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• pp.625-633
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• 2015

In this study, a coupled probabilistic framework is developed to assess wind risk on apartment buildings by using the convolution of wind hazard and fragility functions. In this framework, typhoon induced extreme wind is estimated by applying the developed Monte Carlo simulation model to the climatological data of typhoons affecting Korean peninsular from 1951 to 2013. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is also used to assess wind fragility function for 4 different damage states by comparing the probability distributions of the window system's resistance performance and wind load. Wind hazard and fragility functions are modeled by the Weibull and lognormal probability distributions based on simulated wind speeds and failure probabilities. The modeled functions are convoluted to obtain the wind risk for the different damage levels. The developed probabilistic framework clearly shows that wind risk are influenced by various important characteristics of terrain and apartment building such as location of building, exposure category, topographic condition, roof angle, height of building, etc. The risk model presented in this paper can be used as tools to predict economic loss estimation and to establish wind risk mitigation plan for the existing building inventory.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• 제20권5호
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• pp.104-111
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• 2016

Recently, the quantities of chemical material are increasing in chemical industries. At that time, release accident is increasing due to aging of equipment, mechanical failure, human error, etc. and industrial complexes found community properties in a specific area. For that matter, chemical release accident can lead to hight probability of large disaster. There is a need to analyze the boundaries optimal sensor placement calculated by selecting release scenarios through release condition and wether condition in a chemical process for release detection and response. This paper is to investigate chlorine release accident scenarios using COMSOL. Through accident scenarios, a numerical calculation is studied to determine optimized sensor placement with weight of detection probability, detection time and concentration. In addition, validity of sensor placement is improved by robustness analysis about unpredicted accident scenarios. Therefore, this verifies our studies can be effectively applicable on any process. As mention above, the result of this study can help to place mobile sensor, to track gas release based concentration data.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.63-72
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• 2016

An expected-discounted cost model based on RRP(Renewal Reward Process), referred to as a stochastic decision model, has been developed to estimate the optimal period of in-depth inspection which is one of critical issues in the life-cycle maintenance management of harbor structures such as rubble-mound breakwaters. A mathematical model, which is a function of the probability distribution of the service-life, has been formulated by simultaneously adopting PIM(Periodic Inspection and Maintenance) and CBIM(Condition-Based Inspection and Maintenance) policies so as to resolve limitations of other models, also all the costs in the model associated with monitoring and repair have been discounted with time. From both an analytical solution derived in this paper under the condition in which a failure rate function is a constant and the sensitivity analyses for the variety of different distribution functions and conditions, it has been confirmed that the present solution is more versatile than the existing solution suggested in a very simplified setting. Additionally, even in that case which the probability distribution of the service-life is estimated through the stochastic process, the present model is of course also well suited to interpret the nonlinearity of deterioration process. In particular, a MCS(Monte-Carlo Simulation)-based sample path method has been used to evaluate the parameters of a damage intensity function in stochastic process. Finally, the present stochastic decision model can satisfactorily be applied to armor units of rubble mound breakwaters. The optimal periods of in-depth inspection of rubble-mound breakwaters can be determined by minimizing the expected total cost rate with respect to the behavioral feature of damage process, the level of serviceability limit, and the consequence of that structure.

• Tunnel and Underground Space
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• 제24권2호
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• pp.155-165
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• 2014

Multiple thermal energy storage (TES) caverns can be used for storing thermal energy on a large scale and for a high-aspect-ratio heat storage design to provide good thermal performance. It may also be necessary to consider the use of multiple caverns with a reduced length when a single, long tunnel-shaped cavern is not suitable for connection to aboveground heat production and injection equipments. When using multiple TES caverns, the separation distance between the caverns is one of the significant factors that should be considered in the design of storage space, and the optimal separation distance should be determined based on a quantitative stability criterion. In this paper, we described a numerical approach for determining the optimal separation distance between multiple caverns for large-scale TES utilization. For reliable stability evaluation of multiple caverns, we employed a probabilistic method which can quantitatively take into account the uncertainty of input parameters by probability distributions, unlike conventional deterministic approaches. The present approach was applied to the design of a conceptual TES model to store hot water for district heating. The probabilistic stability results of this application demonstrated that the approach in our work can be effectively used as a decision-making tool to determine the optimal separation distance between multiple caverns. In addition, the probabilistic results were compared to those obtained through a deterministic analysis, and the comparison results suggested that care should taken in selecting the acceptable level of stability when using deterministic approaches.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• 제38A권1호
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• pp.68-78
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• 2013

In this paper, we propose an early spectrum sensing(ESS) as an advance preparation for radio-access trial, which enables multi-mode terminals to access the most appropriate radio-access system in a cloud-conceptual base station system where multiple radio access technologies(RATs) coexist. Prior to a random access to one of RATs, a multi-mode terminal conducts a spectrum sensing over entire frequency bands of whole RATs, then select the RAT with the lowest sensing power, that is likely to have the most available spectrum. Thus, an access failure caused by that the selected RAT has no available radio spectrum could be avoidable in advance. In computer simulation, we consider as various RATs as possible. First, circuit and packet systems are taken into consideration. In addition, the packet systems are classified according to the feasibility of carrier aggregation(CA). In case of terminal, three modes are considered with circuit-only, packet-only, and multi-mode. Subsequently, packet traffic is classified into real-time and non-real-time traffic with three different tolerable delay levels. The simulation includes a call process starting with a call generation and ending up with a resource allocation reflecting individual user's QoS requirements and evaluates the proposed scheme in terms of the successful access probability, system access time, system balancing factor and packet loss probability.

• Spatial Information Research
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.247-261
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• 2002

There are much damage of people and property because of heavy rain every year. Especially, there are problem to major facility such as dam, bridge, road, tunnel, and industrial complex in the ground stability. So the counter plan for landslide or ground failure must be necessary In the study, the technique of regional landslide susceptibility assessment near the Ulsan petrochemical complex and Kumgang railway bridge was developed and applied using GIS. For the assessment, the geological structures such as bedding and fault were surveyed and the geological structure, topographic, soil, forest, and land use spatial database were constructed using CIS. Using the spatial database, the factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as slope, aspect, curvature and type of topography, texture, material, drainage and effective thickness of soil, type, age, diameter and density of forest, and land use were calculated or extracted from the spatial database. For application of geological structure, the geological structure line and fault density were calculated. Landslide susceptibility was analyzed using the landslide-occurrence factors by probability method that is summation of landslide occurrence probability values per each factors range or type. The landslide susceptibility map can be used to assess ground stability to protect major facility.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.9-22
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• 1995

The purpose of this study is to propose safety factors of pile bearing capacity based on the reliability analysis. Each prediction method involves various degrees of uncertainties. To account for these uncertainties in a systematic way, the ratios of the measured bearing capacity from pile load tests to the predicted bearing capacity are represented in the form of a probability density function. The safety factor for each design method is obtained so that the probability of pile foundation failure is less than 10-3. The Bayesian theorem is applied in a way that the distribution using static formulae is assumed to be the A-prior and the distribution using dynamic formulae or wave equation based methods is assumed to be the likelihood, and these two are combined to obtain the posterior which has the reduced uncertainty. The results of this study show that static formulae of the pile bearing capacity using the 5.p.7. N-value as well as dynamic formulae are highly unreliable and have to have the safety factor more than 7.4 : the wave equation analysis using PDA(Pile Driving Analyzer) system the most reliable with the safety factor close to 2.7. The safety factor could be reduced certain amount by adoption the Bayes methodology in pile design.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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• 제20권5호
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• pp.649-657
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• 2017

In this study, fatigue testing was carried out for long-term use of rail according to track type. From S-N curves for 50%~0.01% failure probability, the fatigue life of the long-term use rail for each track type was derived using the weight probability analysis technique on the experimental data. Because the rails used in the fatigue test have different cumulative tonnages, the number of repetitions was modified by averaging the cumulative tonnage. In addition, the bending stresses of rail bottoms, considering rail surface irregularities, track support stiffnesses and train speeds, were evaluated using the predicted rail bending stresses derived from existing studies. As a result, for rail fatigue life evaluation, the fatigue life of rail on the ballast track was found to be more than 200 million tons higher than the standard value for rail replacement. Also, the fatigue life of rail on concrete track is more than 300 million tons higher than that on ballast track. The Haibach rule is adaptable for the fatigue life evaluation of rail for stress range under fatigue limit.