• 한국지반공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지반공학회 2010년도 춘계 학술발표회
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• pp.379-389
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• 2010

It is very important to determine a target probability of failure in reliability based design such as an allowable factor of safety in working stress design because they are indices to judge the stability of structures. We have carried out reliability analyses of nationwide gravity type quay walls and found that sliding and foundation failures of quay walls were dominant failure modes for every case of loads. And a target probability of failure for bearing capacity of foundation of quay wall was also determined in this study. Of several approaches which have been suggested until now, a couple of reasonable approaches were used. Firstly, in order to consider the safety margin of structures which have been executed so far, the reliability levels of existing structures were assessed. And then a mean probability of failure for the quay walls was estimated. In addition, life cycle cost(LCC) analyses for representative structures were performed. Probabilities of failure for several quay walls were calculated with changing the width of each quay wall section. LCC of quay wall which is requiring case by case during the service life was evaluated, and also the optimum probability of failure of quay wall which minimizes LCC was found. Finally, reasonable target probabilities of failure were suggested by comparing with mean probability of failure of existing structures.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제43권11호
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• pp.967-976
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• 2010

우수관의 성능이 한계상태(performance limit state)에 도달할 확률을 정량적으로 산정할 수 있는 FORM(First-Order Reliability Model)의 AFDA(Approximate Full Distribution Approach) 신뢰성 모형을 개발하였다. 우수관망에서 각각의 관으로 유입하는 유량이 그 관의 허용 가능 배출량을 초과하여 성능한계상태에 도달할 때 이를 파괴상태(failure state)라 정의하여 신뢰함수를 수립하였다. 우수관거로의 유입량은 합리식, 유출량은 Manning의 공식을 적용하였다. 또한 신뢰성 해석을 위한 관련 확률변수들에 대한 통계적 특성과 분포함수에 대한 해석이 수행되었다. 강우자료의 불확실성 해석에서 우리나라 여러 중소도시에 대한 연 최대강우강도의 확률분포가 Gumbel 극치분포함수와 일치함을 확인하였다. 개발된 신뢰성 모형을 Y자형 우수관망에 적용하여 성능한계상태가 발생할 확률, 즉 파괴확률(probability of failure)을 정량적으로 산정하였다. Manning의 공식을 이용하여 우수관의 직경 변화에 따른 파괴확률의 거동특성을 분석하였다. 특히 문경과 대전의 50년 재현기간을 갖는 설계 강우강도에 대한 우수관의 파괴확률을 산정한 결과에 의하면, 관의 직경이 특정수치 이하일 경우 파괴확률이 급격히 커지는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이는 실제 우수관의 유효직경이 설계직경에 가깝도록 항상 관내 불순물을 제거하는 것이 파괴확률을 줄이는 최선의 방법임을 의미하는 것이다. 또한 우수관 시스템의 경우 여러 개의 관이 모여 하나의 관으로 흘러 들어가는 경우가 많으며 이 경우 다중파괴유형(multiple failure mode)을 적용하여 시스템이 파괴상태에 도달할 확률을 정량적으로 산정하였다. 본 연구에서 개발된 신뢰성 모형은 우수관의 운용, 관리, 감독은 물론 설계에 활용이 가능 할 것이다.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 2003년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1557-1560
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• 2003

This paper presents the effect of varying boundary conditions such as ground subsidence on failure prediction of buried pipelines. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with three cases of ground subsidence. We estimate the distribution of stresses imposed on the buried pipelines by varying boundary conditions and calculate the probability of pipelines with von-Mises failure criterion. The effects of random variables such as pipe diameter, internal pressure, temperature, settlement width, load for unit length of pipelines, material yield stress and thickness of pipeline on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are also systematically studied by using a failure probability model for the pipeline crossing a ground subsidence region.

• 대한안전경영과학회지
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.123-131
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• 2001

Reliability calculation of a system is frequently required in industrial, military, and everyday life situations. For such a calculation, it is necessary to specify the configuration of components and subsystems, the failure mode of each component, and the states in which the system is classified as failed. In this paper, we are primary interested in the time to the first failure of a system. And we discuss failure probability of coherent system under various condition, especially focus on probability calculation of subsystem failure before system failure used by Bayes formula. Problem statement and general applications illustrated by several examples.

• 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
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• 제21권5호
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• pp.405-409
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• 2009

중요도추출법을 이용한 항만구조물의 신뢰성해석방법을 제시하였다. 몬테카를로모사법(Monte Carlo Simulation)을 이용하여 신뢰성해석을 수행할 때 전도파괴확률과 같이 매우 낮은 파괴확률을 가진 경우는 해석시간이 과다하게 소요되는 문제점이 있다. 항만구조물 신뢰성해석 시 나타나는 이러한 문제를 극복하기 위해 파괴면주위의 추출점을 이용하여 해석시간을 단축시킬 수 있는 중요도추출법을 적용하였다. 중요도추출법을 항만구조물에 적용한 경우 파괴확률이 매우 낮은 파괴모드에 대한 신뢰성해석을 효율적으로 수행할 수 있음을 보였다. 수치해석에서 케이슨 안벽의 신뢰성해석을 수행하였으며 파괴확률의 낮고 높음에 따른 중요도추출법의 효용성을 검증하였다.

• 한국방재안전학회논문집
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.43-50
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• 2014

본 논문은 신뢰성 이론에 기초하여 철골보의 단경간 및 2경간 연속보의 파손확률을 결정하였다. 계산식에서 철골보에 가해지는 하중은 정규 분포로 가정하여 진행되었으며, 파손확률의 변화를 확인하기 위해 보의 중앙범위에 적용하는 하중을 보의 1대 1과 1대 2로 분할된 지점에 배치하였다. 보의 끝부분의 경계 결합조건 역시 연구에 포함되었다. 연구 결과 파손확률이 있는 보에 대한 결합조건 및 파손확률은 2차 분석에 따라 그 중요도가 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 결론적으로 일부의 경우를 제외하고 보의 파손확률은 보 양단의 경계조건에 따라 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국기계가공학회지
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• 제18권8호
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• pp.31-37
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• 2019

The inter-development of FMECA is very important to assess the effect of potential failures during system operation on mission, safety and performance. Among these, criticality analysis is a core task that identifies items with high risk and selects the analyzed objects as the key management targets and reflects their effects to the design optimization. In this paper, we analyze the theory related to criticality analysis following US military standard, and propose a method to quantify the failure effect probability for objective criticality analysis. The criticality analysis according to the US military standard depends on the subjective judgment of the failure probability. The methodology for quantifying the failure effect probability is presented by using the reliability theory and the Bayes theorem. The failure rate is calculated by applying the method to quantify failure effect probability.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제31권6호
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• pp.58-66
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• 2016

This study aims to estimate the failure probability of concrete gravity dams for their risk analysis under flood situation. To the end, failure modes of concrete gravity dams and their limit state functions are proposed based on numerous review of domestic and international literatures on the dam failure cases and design standards. Three failure modes are proposed: overturning, sliding, and overstress. Based on the failure modes the limit state functions, the failure probability is assessed for a weir section and a non-weir section of a dam in Korea. As water level is rising from operational condition to extreme flood condition, the failure probability is found to be raised up to the warning condition, especially for overturning mode at the non-weir section. The result can be used to reduce the risk of the dam by random environmental variables under possible flood situation.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2007년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.749-757
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• 2007

Recently, with increasing interested in improvement of operational reliability and the systematic maintenance activities, the RCM analysis has been applied and tried to lots of applicable industries. This study covers applying the probability of failure cause to FMEA, and proposes an analytical method for this. Also, the measures of quantitative classification for the result of failure cause probability are addressed. Based on the field data, this thesis presents an identification for causes and characteristics of failure, and reviews them periodically from the above methodologies. As using FMEA applied the probability of failure cause, we in the future can look forward to improvement of efficiency for failure diagnosis & inspection, and reliability.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.20-28
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• 2005

In this paper, the methodology for the reliability estimation of buried pipeline with longitudinal gouges and dent is presented and the limit state of buried pipeline is formulated by failure assessment diagram(FAD). The reliability of buried pipeline with defects has been estimated by using a theory of failure probability. The failure probability is calculated by using the FORM(first order reliability method) and Monte Carlo simulation. The results out of two procedures have been compared each other. It is found that the FORM and Monte Carlo simulation give similar results for varying boundary conditions and various random variables. Furthermore, it is also recognized that the failure probability increases with increasing of dent depth, gouge depth, gouge length, operating pressure, pipe outside radius and decreasing the wall thickness. And it is found that the analysis by using the failure assessment diagram gives highly conservative results than those by using the theory of failure probability.