• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
• /
• 2010.03a
• /
• pp.379-389
• /
• 2010

It is very important to determine a target probability of failure in reliability based design such as an allowable factor of safety in working stress design because they are indices to judge the stability of structures. We have carried out reliability analyses of nationwide gravity type quay walls and found that sliding and foundation failures of quay walls were dominant failure modes for every case of loads. And a target probability of failure for bearing capacity of foundation of quay wall was also determined in this study. Of several approaches which have been suggested until now, a couple of reasonable approaches were used. Firstly, in order to consider the safety margin of structures which have been executed so far, the reliability levels of existing structures were assessed. And then a mean probability of failure for the quay walls was estimated. In addition, life cycle cost(LCC) analyses for representative structures were performed. Probabilities of failure for several quay walls were calculated with changing the width of each quay wall section. LCC of quay wall which is requiring case by case during the service life was evaluated, and also the optimum probability of failure of quay wall which minimizes LCC was found. Finally, reasonable target probabilities of failure were suggested by comparing with mean probability of failure of existing structures.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.43 no.11
• /
• pp.967-976
• /
• 2010

AFDA (Approximate Full Distribution Approach) model of FORM (First-Order Reliability Model) which can quantitatively calculate the probability that storm sewer reach to performance limit state was developed in this study. It was defined as a failure if amount of inflow exceed the capacity of storm sewer. Manning's equation and rational equation were used to determine the capacity and inflow of reliability function. Furthermore, statistical characteristics and distribution for the random variables were analyzed as a reliability analysis. It was found that the statistical distribution for annual maximum rainfall intensity of 10 cities in Korea is matched well with Gumbel distribution. Reliability model developed in this study was applied to Y shaped storm sewer system to calculate the probability that storm sewer may exceed the performance limit state. Probability of failure according to diameter was calculated using Manning's equation. Especially, probability of failure of storm sewer in Mungyeong and Daejeon was calculated using rainfall intensity of 50-year return period. It was found that probability of failure can be significantly increased if diameter is decreased below the original diameter. Therefore, cleaning the debris in sewer pipes to maintain the original pipe diameter should be one of the best ways to reduce the probability of failure of storm sewer. In sewer system, two sewer pipes can flow into one sewer pipe. For this case, probability of system failure was calculated using multiple failure mode. Reliability model developed in this study can be applied to design, maintenance, management, and control of storm sewer system.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
• /
• 2003.06a
• /
• pp.1557-1560
• /
• 2003

This paper presents the effect of varying boundary conditions such as ground subsidence on failure prediction of buried pipelines. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function is used in order to estimate the probability of failure associated with three cases of ground subsidence. We estimate the distribution of stresses imposed on the buried pipelines by varying boundary conditions and calculate the probability of pipelines with von-Mises failure criterion. The effects of random variables such as pipe diameter, internal pressure, temperature, settlement width, load for unit length of pipelines, material yield stress and thickness of pipeline on the failure probability of the buried pipelines are also systematically studied by using a failure probability model for the pipeline crossing a ground subsidence region.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
• /
• v.3 no.2
• /
• pp.123-131
• /
• 2001

Reliability calculation of a system is frequently required in industrial, military, and everyday life situations. For such a calculation, it is necessary to specify the configuration of components and subsystems, the failure mode of each component, and the states in which the system is classified as failed. In this paper, we are primary interested in the time to the first failure of a system. And we discuss failure probability of coherent system under various condition, especially focus on probability calculation of subsystem failure before system failure used by Bayes formula. Problem statement and general applications illustrated by several examples.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.21 no.5
• /
• pp.405-409
• /
• 2009

Reliability analysis of coastal structure using importance sampling was shown. When Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate overturng failure probability of coastal structure, very low failure probability leads to drastic increase in simulation time. However, importance sampling which uses randomly chosen design candidates around the failure surface makes it possible to analyze very low failure probability efficiently. In the numerical example, failure probability of caisson type quay wall was analyzed by using importance sampling and performance according to the level of failure probability was shown.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
• /
• v.7 no.1
• /
• pp.43-50
• /
• 2014

Based on the reliability theory, the risk assessment of steel beams is performed by the determination of failure probability. In the calculation, bending, shearing and combined (bending + shearing) modes are examined. The resistance and the loads on the beam are assumed to be normal distribution. To investigate the failure probability changes, total load applied at the mid span of beam is divided into 1 to 1 and 1 to 2 ratio and then these divided loads are placed on the trisected points on beam. The change of boundary conditions at beam ends are also included in the investigation. It shows that failure is governed by the combined mode for the present beams and the second order bound analysis of failure probability is not crucial. On the whole failure probability decreases with increasing end restraints at the beam ends with some exception.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
• /
• v.18 no.8
• /
• pp.31-37
• /
• 2019

The inter-development of FMECA is very important to assess the effect of potential failures during system operation on mission, safety and performance. Among these, criticality analysis is a core task that identifies items with high risk and selects the analyzed objects as the key management targets and reflects their effects to the design optimization. In this paper, we analyze the theory related to criticality analysis following US military standard, and propose a method to quantify the failure effect probability for objective criticality analysis. The criticality analysis according to the US military standard depends on the subjective judgment of the failure probability. The methodology for quantifying the failure effect probability is presented by using the reliability theory and the Bayes theorem. The failure rate is calculated by applying the method to quantify failure effect probability.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.31 no.6
• /
• pp.58-66
• /
• 2016

This study aims to estimate the failure probability of concrete gravity dams for their risk analysis under flood situation. To the end, failure modes of concrete gravity dams and their limit state functions are proposed based on numerous review of domestic and international literatures on the dam failure cases and design standards. Three failure modes are proposed: overturning, sliding, and overstress. Based on the failure modes the limit state functions, the failure probability is assessed for a weir section and a non-weir section of a dam in Korea. As water level is rising from operational condition to extreme flood condition, the failure probability is found to be raised up to the warning condition, especially for overturning mode at the non-weir section. The result can be used to reduce the risk of the dam by random environmental variables under possible flood situation.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
• /
• 2007.11a
• /
• pp.749-757
• /
• 2007

Recently, with increasing interested in improvement of operational reliability and the systematic maintenance activities, the RCM analysis has been applied and tried to lots of applicable industries. This study covers applying the probability of failure cause to FMEA, and proposes an analytical method for this. Also, the measures of quantitative classification for the result of failure cause probability are addressed. Based on the field data, this thesis presents an identification for causes and characteristics of failure, and reviews them periodically from the above methodologies. As using FMEA applied the probability of failure cause, we in the future can look forward to improvement of efficiency for failure diagnosis & inspection, and reliability.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.20 no.4 s.72
• /
• pp.20-28
• /
• 2005

In this paper, the methodology for the reliability estimation of buried pipeline with longitudinal gouges and dent is presented and the limit state of buried pipeline is formulated by failure assessment diagram(FAD). The reliability of buried pipeline with defects has been estimated by using a theory of failure probability. The failure probability is calculated by using the FORM(first order reliability method) and Monte Carlo simulation. The results out of two procedures have been compared each other. It is found that the FORM and Monte Carlo simulation give similar results for varying boundary conditions and various random variables. Furthermore, it is also recognized that the failure probability increases with increasing of dent depth, gouge depth, gouge length, operating pressure, pipe outside radius and decreasing the wall thickness. And it is found that the analysis by using the failure assessment diagram gives highly conservative results than those by using the theory of failure probability.