• 한국산업융합학회 논문집
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• 제23권6_2호
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• pp.1103-1110
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• 2020

In this study, a segmented model with Upside-Down bathtub shaped failure intensity for a repairable system are proposed under the assumption that the occurrences of the failures of a repairable system follow the Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process. The proposed segmented model is the compound model of S-PLP and LIP (Segmented Power Law Process and Logistic Intensity Process), that fits the separate failure intensity functions on each segment of time interval. The maximum likelihood estimation is used for estimating the parameters of the S-PLP and LIP model. The case study of system A shows that the S-PLP and LIP model fits better than the other models when compared by AICc (Akaike Information Criterion corrected) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). And it also implies that the S-PLP and LIP model can be useful for explaining the failure intensities of similar systems.

• 디지털산업정보학회논문지
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.19-27
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• 2014

Software reliability in the software development process is an important issue. Software process improvement helps in finishing with reliable software product. Infinite failure NHPP software reliability models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, proposes the reliability model with log type mean value function (Musa-Okumoto and log power model), which made out efficiency application for software reliability. Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, model selection based on mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination($R^2$), for the sake of efficient model, was employed. Analysis of failure using real data set for the sake of proposing log type mean value function was employed. This analysis of failure data compared with log type mean value function. In order to insurance for the reliability of data, Laplace trend test was employed. In this study, the log type model is also efficient in terms of reliability because it (the coefficient of determination is 70% or more) in the field of the conventional model can be used as an alternative could be confirmed. From this paper, software developers have to consider the growth model by prior knowledge of the software to identify failure modes which can be able to help.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제43권11호
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• pp.967-976
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• 2010

우수관의 성능이 한계상태(performance limit state)에 도달할 확률을 정량적으로 산정할 수 있는 FORM(First-Order Reliability Model)의 AFDA(Approximate Full Distribution Approach) 신뢰성 모형을 개발하였다. 우수관망에서 각각의 관으로 유입하는 유량이 그 관의 허용 가능 배출량을 초과하여 성능한계상태에 도달할 때 이를 파괴상태(failure state)라 정의하여 신뢰함수를 수립하였다. 우수관거로의 유입량은 합리식, 유출량은 Manning의 공식을 적용하였다. 또한 신뢰성 해석을 위한 관련 확률변수들에 대한 통계적 특성과 분포함수에 대한 해석이 수행되었다. 강우자료의 불확실성 해석에서 우리나라 여러 중소도시에 대한 연 최대강우강도의 확률분포가 Gumbel 극치분포함수와 일치함을 확인하였다. 개발된 신뢰성 모형을 Y자형 우수관망에 적용하여 성능한계상태가 발생할 확률, 즉 파괴확률(probability of failure)을 정량적으로 산정하였다. Manning의 공식을 이용하여 우수관의 직경 변화에 따른 파괴확률의 거동특성을 분석하였다. 특히 문경과 대전의 50년 재현기간을 갖는 설계 강우강도에 대한 우수관의 파괴확률을 산정한 결과에 의하면, 관의 직경이 특정수치 이하일 경우 파괴확률이 급격히 커지는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이는 실제 우수관의 유효직경이 설계직경에 가깝도록 항상 관내 불순물을 제거하는 것이 파괴확률을 줄이는 최선의 방법임을 의미하는 것이다. 또한 우수관 시스템의 경우 여러 개의 관이 모여 하나의 관으로 흘러 들어가는 경우가 많으며 이 경우 다중파괴유형(multiple failure mode)을 적용하여 시스템이 파괴상태에 도달할 확률을 정량적으로 산정하였다. 본 연구에서 개발된 신뢰성 모형은 우수관의 운용, 관리, 감독은 물론 설계에 활용이 가능 할 것이다.

• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 2004년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.630-633
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• 2004

Generally, component and FR-4 board are connected by solder joint. Because material properties of components and FR-4 board are different, component and FR-4 board show different coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) and thus strains in component and board are different when they are heated. That is, the differences in CTE of component and FR-4 board cause the dissimilarity in shear strain and BGA solder joint s failure. The first order Taylor series expansion of the limit state function incorporating with thermal fatigue models is used in order to estimate the failure probability of solder joints under heated condition. A model based on plastic-strain rate such as the Coffin-Manson Fatigue Model is utilized in this study. The effects of random variables such as frequency, maximum temperature, and temperature variations on the failure probability of the BGA solder joint are systematically investigated by using a failure probability model with the first order reliability method(FORM).

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.45-55
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• 2017

Stainless steel exhibits high ductility and strain hardening capacity in comparison with carbon steel widely used in constructions. To analyze the particular behaviour of stainless steel cover-plate joints, an experimental study was conducted. It showed large ductility and complex failure modes of the joints. A non-linear finite element model was developed to predict the main parameters influencing the behaviour of these joints. The results of this deterministic model allow us to built a meta-model by using the quadratic response surface method, in order to allow for efficient reliability analysis. This analysis is then applied to the assessment of design formulae in the currently used codes of practice. The reliability analysis has shown that the stainless steel joint design according to Eurocodes leads to much lower failure probabilities than the Eurocodes target reliability for carbon steel, which incites revising the resisting model evaluation and consequently reducing stainless steel joint costs. This approach can be used as a basis to evaluate a wide range of steel joints involving complex failure modes, particularly bearing failure.

• International Journal of Reliability and Applications
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.1-26
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• 2001

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a proportional reversed hazard rate model, in contrast to the celebrated proportional hazard model, and study some of its structural properties. Some criteria of ageing are presented and the inheritance of the ageing notions (of the base line distribution) by the proposed model are studied. Two important data sets are analyzed: one uncensored and the other having some censored observations. In both cases, the confidence bands for the failure rate and survival function are investigated. In one case the failure rate is bathtub shaped and in the other it is upside bath tub shaped and thus the failure rates are non-monotonic even though the baseline failure rate is monotonic. In addition, the estimates of the turning points of the failure rates are provided.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제52권12호
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• pp.2887-2900
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• 2020

Cladding failure in a fuel rod during operation in a BWR is analyzed using a FALCON code-based model. Comparative calculation with a neighbouring, intact rod is presented, as well. A considerable 'hot spot' effect in cladding temperature is predicted with the SLICE-DO model due to a thermal barrier caused by the localized crud deposition. Particularly significant overheating is expected to occur on the affected side of the cladding of the failed rod, in agreement with signs of significant localized crud deposition as revealed by Post Irradiation Examination. Different possibilities (criteria) are checked, and Pellet-Cladding Mechanical Interaction (PCMI) is shown to be one of the plausible potential threats. It is shown that PCMI could lead to discernible concentrated inelastic deformation in the overheated part of the cladding. None of the specific mechanisms considered can be experimentally or analytically identified as an only cause of the rod failure. However, according to the current calculation, a possibility of cladding failure by PCMI cannot be excluded if the crud thickness exceeded 300 ㎛.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제29권5호
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• pp.689-697
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• 2005

This paper presents the reliability estimation of door hinge for home appliances, which consists of bushing and shaft. The predominant failure mechanism of bushing made of polyoxymethylene(POM) is brittle fracture due to decrease of strength caused by voids existing, and that of shaft made of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene(ABS) is creep due to plastic deformation caused by excessive temperature and lowering of glass transition temperature by absorbed moisture. Since the brittle fracture of bushing is overstress failure mechanism, the load-strength interference model is used to estimate the failure rate of it along with failure analysis. By the way, the creep of shaft is wearout failure mechanism, and an accelerated life test is then planned and implemented to estimate its lifetime. Through the technical review about failure mechanism, temperature and humidity are selected as accelerating variables. Assuming Weibull lifetime distribution and Eyring model, the life-stress relationship and acceleration factor, $B_{10}$ life and its lower bound with $90\%$ confidence at worst case use condition are estimated by analyzing the accelerated life test data.

• 한국신뢰성학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신뢰성학회 2004년도 정기학술대회
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• pp.303-311
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• 2004

This paper presents the reliability estimation of door hinge for home appliances, which consists of bushing and shaft. The predominant failure mechanism of bushing made of polyoxymethylene(POM) is brittle fracture due to decrease of strength caused by voids existing, and that of shaft made of acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene(ABS) is creep due to plastic deformation caused by excessive temperature and lowering of glass transition temperature by absorbed moisture. Since the brittle fracture of bushing is overstress failure mechanism, the load-strength interference model is used to estimate the failure rate of it along with failure analysis. By the way, the creep of shaft is wearout failure mechanism, and an accelerated life test is then planned and implemented to estimate its lifetime. Through the technical review about failure mechanism, temperature and humidity are selected as accelerating variables. Assuming Weibull lifetime distribution and Eyring model, the life-stress relationship and acceleration factor, B$_{10}$ life and its lower bound with 90% confidence at worst case use condition are estimated by analyzing the accelerated life test data.a.

• Advanced Composite Materials
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.233-249
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• 2009

Safe installation and operation of high-pressure composite cylinders for hydrogen storage are of primary concern. It is unavoidable for the cylinders to experience temperature variation and significant thermal input during service. The maximum failure pressure that the cylinder can sustain is affected due to the dependence of composite material properties on temperature and complexity of cylinder design. Most of the analysis reported for high-pressure composite cylinders is based on simplifying assumptions and does not account for complexities like thermo-mechanical behavior and temperature dependent material properties. In the present work, a comprehensive finite element simulation tool for the design of hydrogen storage cylinder system is developed. The structural response of the cylinder is analyzed using laminated shell theory accounting for transverse shear deformation and geometric nonlinearity. A composite failure model is used to evaluate the failure pressure under various thermo-mechanical loadings. A back-propagation neural network (NNk) model is developed to predict the maximum failure pressure using the analysis results. The failure pressures predicted from NNk model are compared with those from test cases. The developed NNk model is capable of predicting the failure pressure for any given loading condition.