• The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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• v.54 no.10
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• pp.480-486
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• 2005

This paper proposes a method to consider an aging failure probability and survival probability of power system components, though only aging failure probability has been considered in existing mean life calculation. The estimates of the mean and its standard deviation is calculated by using Weibull distribution, and each estimated parameters is obtained from Data Analytic Method (Type H Censoring). The parameter estimation using Data Analytic Method is simpler and faster than the traditional calculation method using gradient descent algorithm. This paper shows calculation procedure of the mean life and its standard deviation by the proposed method and illustrates that the estimated results are close enough to real historical data of combustion turbine generating units in Korean systems. Also, this paper shows the calculation procedures of a probabilistic failure prediction through a stochastic data analysis. Consequently, the proposed methods would be likely to permit that the new deregulated environment forces utilities to reduce overall costs while maintaining an are-related reliability index.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.79-86
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• 2022

Recently, the amount of maintenance is increasing due to the aging of power facilities, but the budget is constrained. Therefore, the importance of asset management that selects replacement priorities based on the failure probability and enhances investment effects is increasing. Because the number of distribution transformers is very large, the proportion of investment cost is very high. Therefore, it is important to select the investment priority by evaluating the reliable remaining life based on the failure probability. This paper evaluates the statistical expected life using the failure data of distribution transformers for the last 11 years and the current operation data. The hazard rate of distribution transformer and MV cable was compared with each other and the adequacy of early failure removal was reviewed and the statistical expected life corresponding to the cumulative failure probability B3% was calculated.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.31-39
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• 2008

This paper proposes a method of estimating the lifetime distribution at use condition for constant stress accelerated life tests when an infant-mortality failure mode as well as wear-out one exists. General limited failure population model is introduced to describe these failure modes. It is assumed that the log lifetime of each failure mode follows a location-scale distribution and a linear relation exists between the location parameter and the stress. An estimation procedure using the expectation and maximization algorithm is proposed. Specific formulas for Weibull distribution are obtained. An illustrative example and the simulation results are given.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.1848-1853
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• 2007

In this study, we are to analyze the life and the main failure mode of pneumatic valves that are usually applied to the factory automation line. Pneumatic valves have complicated failure cause since they are organized as a complex of various elements. Therefore, in this paper, we analyzed the main failure mode of pneumatic valves, and then performed life test and performance test according to the international standards. On the basis of these processes, we estimated a shape parameter that is the main factor for the calculation of test time for the reliability of pneumatic valves by analyzing life distribution data.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.1667-1672
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• 2007

In order to assess the reliability of the exhaust bellows for automobiles, accelerated life test model and procedure are developed. By using this method, failure mechanism and life distribution are analyzed. The main results are as follows; i) the main failure mechanism is crack or breakage of inner flexible tube by shaken displacement at shear direction. ii) temperature is a second factor to affect a failure. iii) the life distribution of exhaust bellows is fitted well to Weibull life distribution and the shape parameter is 13.3 on condition of shaken displacement and $600^{\circ}C$

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.1842-1847
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• 2007

In this study, we are to analyze the life and the main failure mode of flexible tubes fitting for pneumatic that are usually applied in the factory automation line. Flexible tubes fitting for pneumatic have complicated failure cause because they are organized as a complex of various elements. Therefore, in this paper, we analyzed the main failure mode of flexible tubes fitting for pneumatic, and then performed life test and performance test according to the international standards. On the basis of these processes, we estimate shape parameter that is the main factor for the calculation of test time for the reliability of flexible tubes fitting for pneumatic and their data analysis of life distribution.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Technology Engineers
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.804-811
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• 2010

The fatigue crack propagation is stochastic in nature, because the variables affecting the fatigue behavior are random and have uncertainty. Therefore, the fatigue life prediction is critical for the design and the maintenance of many structural components. In this study, fatigue experiments are conducted on the specimens of magnesium alloy AZ31 under various conditions such as thickness of specimen, the load ratio and the loading condition. The probability distribution fit to the fatigue failure life are investigated through a probability plot paper by these conditions. The probabilities of failure at various conditions are also estimated. The fatigue design life is predicted by using the Weibull distribution.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.1259-1264
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• 2008

This paper presents an accelerated life test for burn out of tungsten filament of automotive halogen lamp. There are many failure modes and failure factors that associated with tungsten filament. But in this explain the dominant failure mode of tungsten filament is the bumout of the filament failure. At first, over voltage, high temperature, inrush current and vibration are selected as stress factors by using of two stage Quality Function Deploymeng(QFD). And we planed accelerated life test that has one factor(voltage) and three levels. By experiment it has absorbed that over voltage has an effect on the life of halogen lamp. Using ALTA programs, we estimated the common shpae parament of Weibull distribution, life-stress relationship and $B_{100p}$ life.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers
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• v.28 no.12
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• pp.843-846
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• 2015

In this paper, the failure mechanism of PTC heater were examined closely by failure analysis and based on it, accelerated life test were conducted. Finally, life distribution and acceleration model were established. The failure mechanism of PTC heater such as crack, increase of resistance due to heating were identified. Two acceleration factors such as temperature, humidity were chosen with two levels each and accelerated life test were done. Life distribution were identified as Weibull distribution with shape parameter 5.4 and Temperature-Humidity model was fitted as an acceleration model.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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• v.26 no.9
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• pp.96-102
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• 2009

In this study, performs analysis of the life of parallel opening type pneumatic chucks that are usually applied in the factory automation line. Pneumatic chucks have complicated failure cause because they are organized as a complex of various elements. Therefore, we analyzed the main failure mode of pneumatic chuck, and then performed life test and performance test according to the international standards. On the basis of these processes, shape parameter of pneumatic chuk is proposed that is the main factor for the calculation of zero failure test time for the reliability of pneumatic chuck and their data analysis of life distribution.