• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제25권4호
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• pp.903-914
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• 2014

The inverse Weibull distribution has been proposed as a model in the analysis of life testing data. Also, inverse Weibull distribution has been recently derived as a suitable model to describe degradation phenomena of mechanical components such as the dynamic components (pistons, crankshaft, etc.) of diesel engines. In this paper, we derive the approximate maximum likelihood estimators of the scale parameter and the shape parameter in the inverse Weibull distribution under multiply type-II censoring. We also develop four modified empirical distribution function (EDF) type tests for the inverse Weibull or extreme value distribution based on multiply type-II censored samples. We also propose modified normalized sample Lorenz curve plot and new test statistic.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.289-297
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• 1997

It is well known that the spacings, the differences of two successive order statistics, in a random sample of size n from a distribution function F are independent and exponentially distributed if F is itself the exponential distribution. In this paper we obtain an asymptotically similar result on a fixed number of upper spacings as n .to. .infty. for a general F under the assumption that F is in the domain of attraction of some extreme value distribution. For a heavy or short tailed F, appropriate log transformations of the sample should be proceded to get the result. As a by-product, we also get that each upper spacing diverges in probability to .infty. and converges in probability to 0 as n .to. .infty. for a heavy and short tailed F, respectively, which is fully expected.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.253-258
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to find suitable probability distribution function of complex distribution data like multimodal. Normal distribution is broadly used to assume probability distribution function. However, complex distribution data like multimodal are very hard to be estimated by using normal distribution function only, and there might be errors when other distribution functions including normal distribution function are used. In this study, we experimented to find fit probability distribution function in multimodal area, by using AIS(Automatic Identification System) observation data gathered in Mokpo port for a year of 2013. By using chi-squared statistic, gaussian mixture model(GMM) is the fittest model rather than other distribution functions, such as extreme value, generalized extreme value, logistic, and normal distribution. GMM was found to the fit model regard to multimodal data of maritime traffic flow distribution. Probability density function for collision probability and traffic flow distribution will be calculated much precisely in the future.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.576-580
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• 2013

In this paper, we investigate the capacity of a multipoint-to-point cognitive radio network. In existing works, the asymptotic capacity is only obtained in the high peak power region at secondary transmitter (ST) or obtained without considering the interference from primary transmitter (PT) for easy analysis. Here, we analyze the asymptotic capacity by considering an arbitrary peak power at the ST and the interference from the PT based on extreme value theory. Simulation results show that our approximated capacity is well-matched to the exact capacity. Furthermore, the scaling law of our capacity is found to be double logarithm of the number of secondary users.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제3권3호
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• pp.201-213
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• 1995

At present Level 2 and importance sampling methods are the main tools used to estimate reliability of structural systems. But sometimes application of these techniques to realistic problems involves certain difficulties. In order to overcome the difficulties it is suggested to use Monte Carlo simulation in combination with two other techniques-extreme value and tail entropy approximations; an appropriate Pearson's curve is fit to represent simulation results. On the basis of this approach an algorithm and computer program for structural reliability estimation are developed. A number of specially chosen numerical examples are considered with the aim of checking the accuracy of the approach and comparing it with the Level 2 and importance sampling methods. The field of application of the approach is revealed.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.313-335
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• 2003

Hourly ozone data are available for 73 stations in South Korea from January, 1988 to August, 1998. We are interested in detecting trends in both the mean levels and the extremes of ozone, and in determining how these trends vary over the country. The latter aspect means that we also have to understand the spatial dependence of ozone. In this connection, therefore, we examine in this paper the following features: determining trends in mean ozone levels at individual stations and combination across stations; determining trends in extreme ozone levels at individual stations and combination across stations; spatial modeling of trends in mean and extreme ozone levels.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.239-259
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• 2019

The transmuted generalized extreme value (TGEV) distribution was first introduced by Aryal and Tsokos (Nonlinear Analysis: Theory, Methods & Applications, 71, 401-407, 2009) and applied by Nascimento et al. (Hacettepe Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, 45, 1847-1864, 2016). However, they did not give explicit expressions for all the moments, tail behaviour, quantiles, survival and risk functions and order statistics. The TGEV distribution is a more flexible model than the simple GEV distribution to model extreme or rare events because the right tail of the TGEV is heavier than the GEV. In addition the TGEV distribution can adjusted various forms of asymmetry. In this article, explicit expressions for these measures of the TGEV are obtained. The tail behavior and the survival and risk functions were determined for positive gamma, the moments for nonzero gamma and the moment generating function for zero gamma. The performance of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the TGEV parameters were tested through a series of Monte Carlo simulation experiments. In addition, the model was used to fit three real data sets related to financial returns.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.467-480
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• 2014

The estimation of wind speed values used in codes and standards is an integral part of the wind load evaluation process. In a number of codes and standards, wind speeds outside of tropical cyclone prone regions are estimated using a single probability distribution developed from observed wind speed data, with no distinction made between the types of causal wind hazard (e.g., thunderstorm). Non-tropical cyclone wind hazards (i.e., thunderstorm, non-thunderstorm) have been shown to possess different probability distributions and estimation of non-tropical cyclone wind speeds based on a single probability distribution has been shown to underestimate wind speeds. Current treatment of non-tropical cyclone wind hazards in worldwide codes and standards is touched upon in this work. Meteorological data is available at a considerable number of United States (U.S.) stations that have information on wind speed as well as the type of causal wind hazard. In this paper, probability distributions are fit to distinct storm types (i.e., thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm) and the results of these distributions are compared to fitting a single probability distribution to all data regardless of storm type (i.e., co-mingled). Distributions fitted to data separated by storm type and co-mingled data will also be compared to a derived (i.e., "mixed") probability distribution considering multiple storm types independently. This paper will analyze two extreme value distributions (e.g., Gumbel, generalized Pareto). It is shown that mixed probability distribution, on average, is a more conservative measure for extreme wind speed estimation. Using a mixed distribution is especially conservative in situations where a given wind speed value for either storm type has a similar probability of occurrence, and/or when a less frequent storm type produces the highest overall wind speeds. U.S. areas prone to multiple non-tropical cyclone wind hazards are identified.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제23권5호
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• pp.835-844
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• 2010

극단값 통계 분석의 도구로는 전통적인 연간 최대값 방법과 현대적인 분계점 방법, 그리고 분계점 방법을 개선한 변형체 등으로 분류할 수 있다. 연간 최대값 방법은 시계열자료의 연간 최대값들에 대하여 일반화극단값분포를 적합시키는 것이고, 분계점 방법은 충분히 큰 하나의 분계점을 넘어서는 초과값들의 초과여분들에 대하여 일반화파레토분포를 적합시키는 것이다. 분계점 방법의 한 변형체로서 본 논문에서는 분계점 방법에 추가적으로 초과값들의 전체 개수가 포아송분포를 따른다고 가정하는 포아송-GPD 방법을 다루고, 이를 1988.01.04부터 2009.12.31까지 수집된 서부텍사스산중질유의 현물가격 자료로부터 계산된 일일 상승율과 일일 하락율에 적용한다. 이에 따르면 일일 상승율과 일일 하락율의 분포는 정규분포와 달리 두터운 꼬리를 갖는 분포로 나타났는데, 이는 오늘날의 많은 금융 자료분석에서 나타나는 일반적인 현상과 잘 부합하는 것이다.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.325-336
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• 2018

The physical infrastructure of the power systems, including the high-voltage transmission towers and lines as well as the poles and wires for power distribution at a lower voltage level, is critical for the resilience of the community since the failures or nonfunctioning of these structures could introduce large area power outages under the extreme weather events. In the current engineering practices, single circuit lattice steel towers linked by transmission lines are widely used to form power transmission systems. After years of service and continues interactions with natural and built environment, progressive damages accumulate at various structural details and could gradually change the structural performance. This study is to evaluate the typical existing transmission tower-line system subjected to synoptic winds (atmospheric boundary layer winds). Effects from the possible corrosion penetration on the structural members of the transmission towers and the aerodynamic damping force on the conductors are evaluated. However, corrosion in connections is not included. Meanwhile, corrosion on the structural members is assumed to be evenly distributed. Wind loads are calculated based on the codes used for synoptic winds and the wind tunnel experiments were carried out to obtain the drag coefficients for different panels of the transmission towers as well as for the transmission lines. Sensitivity analysis is carried out based upon the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) to evaluate the structural capacity of the transmission tower-line system for different corrosion and loading conditions. Meanwhile, extreme value analysis is also performed to further estimate the short-term extreme response of the transmission tower-line system.