• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.5
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• pp.141-153
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• 2012

In this study, we estimated probable precipitation amounts at the target year (2020, 2030, 2040) of 55 weather stations in Korea using the 24 hour annual maximum precipitation data from 1973 through 2009 which should be useful for management of agricultural reservoirs. Not only trend tests but also non-stationary tests were performed and non-stationary frequency analysis were conducted to all of 55 sites. Gumbel distribution was chosen and probability weighted moment method was used to estimate model parameters. The behavior of the mean of extreme precipitation data, scale parameter, and location parameter were analyzed. The probable precipitation amount at the target year was estimated by a non-stationary frequency analysis using the linear regression analysis for the mean of extreme precipitation data, scale parameter, and location parameter. Overall results demonstrated that the probable precipitation amounts using the non-stationary frequency analysis were overestimated. There were large increase of the probable precipitation amounts of middle part of Korea and decrease at several sites in Southern part. The non-stationary frequency analysis using a linear model should be applicable to relatively short projection periods.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.66 no.4
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• pp.41-50
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• 2024

Precipitation is an important component of the hydrological cycle and a key input parameter for many applications in hydrology, climatology, meteorology, and weather forecasting research. Grid-based satellite rainfall products with wide spatial coverage and easy accessibility are well recognized as a supplement to ground-based observations for various hydrological applications. The error properties of satellite rainfall products vary as a function of rainfall intensity, climate region, altitude, and land surface conditions. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the commonly used new global grid-based satellite rainfall product, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), using data collected at different spatial and temporal scales. Additionally, in this study, grid-based CHIRPS satellite precipitation data were used to evaluate the 2022 extreme drought. CHIRPS provides high-resolution precipitation data at 5 km and offers reliable global data through the correction of ground-based observations. A frequency analysis was performed to determine the precipitation deficit in 2022. As a result of comparing droughts in 2015, 2017, and 2022, it was found that May 2022 had a drought frequency of more than 500 years. The 1-month SPI in May 2022 indicated a severe drought with an average value of -1.8, while the 3-month SPI showed a moderate drought with an average value of 0.6. The extreme drought experienced in South Korea in 2022 was evident in the 1-month SPI. Both CHIRPS precipitation data and observations from weather stations depicted similar trends. Based on these results, it is concluded that CHIRPS can be used as fundamental data for drought evaluation and monitoring in unmeasured areas of precipitation.

• Atmosphere
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.391-401
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• 2019

This study first investigates the changes of the mean and extreme temperatures and precipitation in East Asia (EA) under stabilized 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming conditions above preindustrial levels provided by HAPPI project. Here, five model with 925 members for 10-year historical period (2006~2015) and 1.5/2.0℃ future warming scenarios (2091~2100) have been used and monthly based data have been analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution fields over EA and domain averaged variables in HAPPI 1.5/2.0℃ hindcast simulations are comparable to observations. It is found that the magnitude of mean temperature warming in EA and Korea is similar to the global mean, but for extreme temperatures local higher warming trend for minimum temperature is significant. In terms of precipitation, most subregion in EA will see more increased precipitation under 1.5/2.0℃ warming compared to the global mean. These attribute for probability density function of analyzed variables to get wider with increasing mean values in 1.5/2.0℃ warming conditions. As the result of vulnerability of 0.5℃ additional warming from 1.5 to 2.0℃, 0.5℃ additional warming contributes to the increases in extreme events and especially the impact over South Korea is slightly larger than EA. Therefore, limiting global warming by 0.5℃ can help avoid the increases in extreme temperature and precipitation events in terms of intensity and frequency.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.1B
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• pp.13-20
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• 2011

The spatio-temporal pattern in precipitation is a significant element in defining characteristics of precipitation. In this study, a new scheme on regionalization utilizing temporal information was introduced on the basis of existing approaches that is mainly based on simple moments of data and geographical information. Given the identified spatio-temporal pattern, this study was extended to characterize regional pattern of annual maximum rainfall over Korea. We have used circular statistics to characterize the temporal distribution on the precipitation, and the circular statistics allow us to effectively assess changes in timing of the extreme rainfall in detail. In this study, a modified K-means method was incorporated with derived temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall in order to better characterize hydrologic pattern for regional frequency analysis. The extreme rainfall was reasonably separated into five categories that considered most attributes in both quantitative and temporal changes in extremes. The results showed that the proposed approach is a promising approach for regionalization in term of physical understanding of extreme rainfall.

• Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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• v.39 no.5 s.104
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• pp.711-721
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• 2004

The aim of this study is to clarify whether frequency and/or severity of extreme climate events have changed significantly in Korea during recent years. Using the best available daily data, spatial and temporal aspects of ten climate change indicators are investigated on an annual and seasonal basis for the periods of 1954-1999. A systematic increase in the $90^{th}$ percentile of daily minimum temperatures at most of the analyzed areas has been observed. This increase is accompanied by a similar reduction in the number of frost days and a significant lengthening of the thermal growing season. Although the intra-annual extreme temperature range is based on only two observations, it provides a very robust and significant measure of declining extreme temperature variability. The five precipitation-related indicators show no distinct changing patterns for spatial and temporal distribution except for the regional series of maximum consecutive dry days. Interestingly, the regional series of consecutive dry days have increased significantly while the daily rainfall intensity index and the fraction of annual total precipitation due to events exceeding the $95^{th}$ percentile for 1901-1990 normals have insignificantly increased.

• Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.394-410
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• 2015

This study aims to classify climate zones for extreme climate indices over the Republic of Korea. First, frequencies and magitudes of extreme high temperature, spatial distributions for extreme low temperature, and extreme precipitation are analysed. Frequencies of summer days in inland region show more than coastal region. In frequencies of frost days, the characteristics of altitude and longitude are appeared. Heavy precipitation days show many frequencies in the southern coastal region and Jeju island, but little in Gyeongsangbuk-do region. The classification of climate zone for extreme climate indices by principal component analysis and cluster analysis is conducted for the first half, second half of study period, and climatology period for 1981-2010. Summer days are classified according to latitude. In case of frost days, the eastern and the southern coastal region and Jeju island are classified as same region. Heavy precipitation days are classified according to longitude in south region of Gyeonggi-do and Gangwon-do. This study will help to prepare adaptation and mitigation system for climate change in wide range of fields.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.59 no.4
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• pp.65-74
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• 2017

North Korea is one of the high vulnerable countries facing the threat of natural disaster and has experienced more frequent disasters in recent years. These disasters have significantly led to food shortages and large reductions in crop yields. In 2015, both North Korean officials and international agencies had identified the extreme drought event, the worst in one hundred years according to the North Korean government. The objective of this study was an assessment of the extreme drought events in 2014~2015, and to apply climatic drought indices for drought monitoring in North Korea. Characteristics of the extreme drought in North Korea are examined by using the weekly-based Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The drought characteristics illustrated by the SPEI results are compared with a Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) results and drought impact information to understand how these indices can explain the drought conditions within the country. These results demonstrated that the SPEI could be an effective tool to provide improved spatial and temporal drought conditions to inform management decisions for drought policy.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.41 no.4
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• pp.379-394
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• 2008

Recently, extreme precipitation events beyond design capacity of hydraulic system have been occurred and this is the causes of failure of hydraulic structure for flood prevention and of severe flood damage. Therefore it is very important to understand temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation events as well as expected changes in extreme precipitation events and distributional characteristics during design period under future climate change. In this paper, climate change scenarios were used to assess the impacts of future climate change on extreme precipitation. Furthermore, analysis of future extreme precipitation characteristics and I-D-F analysis were carried out. This study used SRES B2 greenhouse gas scenario and YONU CGCM to simulate climatic conditions from 2031 to 2050 and statistical downscaling method was applied to establish weather data from each of observation sites operated by the Korean Meteorological Administration. Then quantile mapping of bias correction methods was carried out by comparing the simulated data with observations for bias correction. In addition Modified Bartlett Lewis Rectangular Pulse(MBLRP) model (Onof and Wheater, 1993; Onof 2000) and adjust method were applied to transform daily precipitation time series data into hourly time series data. Finally, rainfall intensity, duration, and frequency were calculated to draw I-D-F curve. Although there are 66 observation sites in Korea, we consider here the results from only Seoul, Daegu, Jeonju, and Gwangju sites in this paper. From the results we found that the rainfall intensity will be increased and the bigger intensity will be occurred for longer rainfall duration when we compare the climate conditions of 2030s with present conditions.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.2B
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• pp.141-153
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• 2009

The occurrence causes of the extreme rainfall to happen in Korea can be distinguished with the typhoons and local downpours. The typhoon events attacked irregularly to induce the heavy rainfall, and the local downpour events mean a seasonal rain front and a local rainfall. Almost every year, the typhoons and local downpours that induced a heavy precipitation be generated extreme disasters like a flooding. Consequently, in this research, There were distinguished the causes of heavy rainfall events with the typhoons and the local downpours at Korea. Also, probability precipitation was computed according to the causes of the local downpour events. An evaluation of local downpours can be used for analysis of heavy rainfall event in short period like a flash flood. The methods of calculation of probability precipitation used the parametric frequency analysis and the Empirical Simulation Technique (EST). The correlation analysis was computed between annual maximum precipitation by local downpour events and sea surface temperature, moisture index for composition of input vectors. At the results of correlation analysis, there were revealed that the relations closely between annual maximum precipitation and sea surface temperature. Also, probability precipitation using EST are bigger than probability precipitation of frequency analysis on west-middle areas in Korea. Therefore, region of west-middle in Korea should prepare the extreme precipitation by local downpour events.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.143-143
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• 2021

Climate change indicators, mainly frequent drought which has happened since the drought of 1994, 1995, and 2012 causing the devastating effect to the agricultural sector, and could be more disruptive given the context of climate change indicators by increasing the temperature and more variable and extreme precipitation. Changes in frequency, duration, and severity of droughts will have enormous impacts on agriculture production and water management. Since both the possibility of drought manifestation and substantial yield losses, we are propositioning an integrated method for evaluating past and future agriculture drought hazards that depend on models' simulations in the Hung-up watershed. to discuss the question of how climate change might influence the impact of extreme agriculture drought by assessing the potential changes in temporal trends of agriculture drought. we will calculate the temporal trends of future drought through drought indices Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, Standardized Precipitation Index, and Palmer drought severity index by using observed data of (1991-2020) from Wonju meteorological station and projected climate change scenarios (2021-2100) of the Representative Concentration Pathways models (RCPs). expected results confirmed the frequency of extreme agricultural drought in the future projected to increase under all studied RCPs. at present 100 years drought is anticipated to happen since the result showing under RCP2.6 will occur every 24 years, RCP4.5 every 17 years, and RCPs8.5 every 7 years, and it would be double in the largest warming scenarios. On another side, the result shows unsupportable water management, could cause devastating consequences in both food production and water supply in extreme events. Because significant increases in the drought magnitude and severity like to be initiate at different time scales for each drought indicator. Based on the expected result that the evaluating the impacts of extreme agricultural droughts and recession could be used for the development of proactive drought risk management, policies for future water balance, prioritize sustainable strengthening and mitigation strategies.