• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
• /
• 2014.10a
• /
• pp.1-24
• /
• 2014

This study uses geo-spatial crop modeling to quantify the biophysical impact of weather extremes. More specifically, the study analyzes the weather extreme which affected maize production in the USA in 2012; it also estimates the effect of a similar weather extreme in 2050, using future climate scenarios. The secondary impact of the weather extreme on food security in the developing world is also assessed using trend analysis. Many studies have reported on the significant reduction in maize production in the USA due to the extreme weather event (combined heat wave and drought) that occurred in 2012. However, most of these studies focused on yield and did not assess the potential effect of weather extremes on food prices and security. The overall goal of this study was to use geo-spatial crop modeling and trend analysis to quantify the impact of weather extremes on both yield and, followed food security in the developing world. We used historical weather data for severe extreme events that have occurred in the USA. The data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In addition we used five climate scenarios: the baseline climate which is typical of the late 20th century (2000s) and four future climate scenarios which involve a combination of two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) and two global circulation models (CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC 3.2). DSSAT 4.5 was combined with GRASS GIS for geo-spatial crop modeling. Simulated maize grain yield across all affected regions in the USA indicates that average grain yield across the USA Corn Belt would decrease by 29% when the weather extremes occur using the baseline climate. If the weather extreme were to occur under the A1B emission scenario in the 2050s, average grain yields would decrease by 38% and 57%, under the CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC 3.2 global climate models, respectively. The weather extremes that occurred in the USA in 2012 resulted in a sharp increase in the world maize price. In addition, it likely played a role in the reduction in world maize consumption and trade in 2012/13, compared to 2011/12. The most vulnerable countries to the weather extremes are poor countries with high maize import dependency ratios including those countries in the Caribbean, northern Africa and western Asia. Other vulnerable countries include low-income countries with low import dependency ratios but which cannot afford highly-priced maize. The study also highlighted the pathways through which a weather extreme would affect food security, were it to occur in 2050 under climate change. Some of the policies which could help vulnerable countries counter the negative effects of weather extremes consist of social protection and safety net programs. Medium- to long-term adaptation strategies include increasing world food reserves to a level where they can be used to cover the production losses brought by weather extremes.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.50 no.7
• /
• pp.475-488
• /
• 2017

To simulate accurate drought, a drought index is needed to reflect the hydrometeorological phenomenon. Several studies have been conducted in Korea using the Modified Surface Water Supply Index (MSWSI) to simulate hydrological drought. This study analyzed the limitations of MSWSI and quantified the uncertainties of MSWSI. The influence of hydrometeorological components selected as the MSWSI components was analyzed. Although the previous MSWSI dealt with only one observation for each input component such as streamflow, ground water level, precipitation, and dam inflow, this study included dam storage level and dam release as suitable characteristics of the sub-basins, and used the areal-average precipitation obtained from several observations. From the MSWSI simulations of 2001 and 2006 drought events, MSWSI of this study successfully simulated drought because MSWSI of this study followed the trend of observing the hydrometeorological data and then the accuracy of the drought simulation results was affected by the selection of the input component on the MSWSI. The influence of the selection of the probability distributions to input components on the MSWSI was analyzed, including various criteria: the Gumbel and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions for precipitation data; normal and Gumbel distributions for streamflow data; 2-parameter log-normal and Gumbel distributions for dam inflow, storage level, and release discharge data; and 3-parameter log-normal distribution for groundwater. Then, the maximum 36 MSWSIs were calculated for each sub-basin, and the ranges of MSWSI differed significantly according to the selection of probability distributions. Therefore, it was confirmed that the MSWSI results may differ depending on the probability distribution. The uncertainty occurred due to the selection of MSWSI input components and the probability distributions were quantified using the maximum entropy. The uncertainty thus increased as the number of input components increased and the uncertainty of MSWSI also increased with the application of probability distributions of input components during the flood season.

• Journal of Life Science
• /
• v.30 no.9
• /
• pp.798-803
• /
• 2020

Late in the 1960s, South Korea established cultivation technology and began breeding new "Tongil" type rice cultivars by crossing indica and japonica. To date, this cultivation technique has been used to produce a wide variety of cultivars to meet consumer preferences and adapt to extreme weather conditions. Once major genetic traits are no longer segregated through advanced generations, varieties obtained from a cross between different crops may become a new variety. In this study, we confirmed the agronomic traits of F₄, F₅, and F₆ by advanced generation a population in which drought tolerance and brown planthopper (BPH) resistance were crossed. HV23, Ilmi/HV23, and Drimi2ho/HV23 were used. HV23 was drought-tolerant, and Drimi2ho was resistant to BPH. As a result, it was possible to consider that the agronomic traits were fixed because none of them showed a significant difference from the others. While it takes more than 10 years for the pedigree method of breeding, this study confirmed that the agronomic traits were fixed in 4-6 years. In the future, we will investigate the homology of the CaMsrB2 gene and the Bph1 gene, to confirm that both genes are closely related to each other, and analyze the stable inheritance of the introduced gene for multiple successive generations.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
• /
• v.36 no.6
• /
• pp.546-558
• /
• 2020

While industrialization has provided in abundance, the pollution it creates has caused untold damage to the environment, increasing the frequency and severity of natural disasters through changes in global climate patterns. The World Risk Forum's (WEF) World Risk Report presented the results of a survey of experts from around the world detailing the most influential risk factors over the next decade. Notably, the failure to respond to climate change ranked first and the global water crisis third. The extreme drought in the western Chungnam province was unexpected in 2016. At the time, the water level of Boryeong Dam was drastically decreased due to receiving less than half the average recorded rainfall in the region that year. The Boryeong Dam diversion pipeline has the capacity to solve the water shortage problem between these two regions by providing water from Geumgang to the western part of Chungnam, including Boryeong City. Current weather trends suggest drought is likely to continue in western Chungnam, which uses the Boryeong Dam as an intake source. This makes it necessary to operate Boryeong Dam diversion pipeline in an efficient and effective manner. SWAT is a watershed scale model developed to predict the impact of land management practices on water. The SWAT model was used in this study to evaluate the adequacy of the Boryeong Dam diversion pipeline operational plan by comparing it to present Boryeong Dam diversion pipeline operation. By investigating the number of days required to reach each reservoir stage, we determined that the number of days required to reach the boundary stage was less than that of the current operation. This determination accounts for the caveats that the Boryeong Dam waterway was not operated and only one pump will be operated from October to May of next year. As our results suggest, the most stable operation scenario is to operate two pumps at all times. This can be accomplished by operating two pumps from the caution stage to increase the number of pumps whenever the stage is raised. In addition to the stable operation of the Boryeong Dam pipeline, policy considerations are required with regard to imposing a water use charge on users of the Boryeong Dam region.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.62-70
• /
• 2012

Rainfall, on Jeju Island varies regionally in relation to Mt. Halla with higher rainfall within southern area and lower in western area, and its variability is expected to expand according to the climate change scenario. Non-parametric trend analysis for rainfall, using both historic (1971-2010) and simulated (2011-2100) data assuming the A1B emissions scenario, shows regionally increasing trends with time. In perspective of agricultural land use, area for market garden including various crop types with high water demand is increasing over the Island, especially in the western area with lower rainfall compared to southern area. On the other hand, area for fruit including mandarin and kiwi with low water demand is widely distributed over southern and northern part having higher rainfall. These regional disparity of water demand/supply may be more affected by extreme events such as drought and heavy rainfall that has not yet been considered. Therefore, it is necessary to make policies for water resource management considering both demand and supply in different regions with climate change impacts over Jeju Island.

• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
• /
• v.30 no.2
• /
• pp.131-137
• /
• 2016

The development of alternative water resources has emerged as an effective method for solving drought of water resources due to extreme weather and increase in water consumption. Recently, in Korea, there has been active research on reverse osmosis desalination technology, wastewater reuse using forward osmosis membranes, and the forward osmosis(FO)-reverse osmosis(RO) hybrid process combining these two technologies. In this study, the basic performance of FO membranes manufactured by three domestic and international manufactures such as Microfilter Co., Ltd., Toray Chemical Korea Inc., and Hydration Technologies Inc., were investigated for wastewater reuse. In addition, as an experiment to select feed solution, the selected membranes were operated 48 consecutive hours using three secondary effluents pretreated by the UF membrane with a pore size of $0.1{\mu}m$ and auto strainer with pore sizes of $1{\mu}m$ and $100{\mu}m$ as feed solution. Although there was not much difference in the operating performance. Thus, the treated water using the $100{\mu}m$ auto strainer was selected as feed solution applied to the assessment.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
• /
• v.23 no.1
• /
• pp.41-53
• /
• 2018

Comprehensive statistical analysis for the 127 groundwater monitoring stations in Jeju Island during 2005~2015 was carried out for the re-establishment of management groundwater level. Three probability distribution functions such as normal distibution, GEV (General Extreme Value) distribution, and Gumbel distribution were applied and the maximum likelihood method was used for parameter estimation of each distribution. AIC (Akaike information criterion) was calculated based on the estimated parameters to determine the proper probability distribution for all 127 stations. The results showed that normal distribution and Gumble distribution were found in 11 stations. Whereas GEV distribution were found in 105 stations, which covered most of groundwater monitoring stations. Therefore, confidence levels should be established in accord with the proper probability distribution when groundwater level management is determined.

• Animal cells and systems
• /
• v.1 no.1
• /
• pp.53-61
• /
• 1997

Seasonal variation of the population structure and the reproductive pattern of the Korean striped field mouse, Apodemus agrarius, were investigated. High capture ratios in juveniles, young adult, and old adult mice were found during the period from October to November, from November to March, and from May to September, respectively, and extremely low capture ratios of old adults during the period from November to February were characteristic. It seemed that the young adults that survived during the winter might become older by summer and have been counted as the old adults. The breeding in the mice began earlier in males (from mid February or early March to late October) than in females (from mid March to late October), having a peak in August and September, and both the male and female mice weighing more than 20 g generally reached sexual maturation in general. In the breeding season, both young and old adult males had large testes with enlarged seminiferous tubules filled with numerous germ and Sertoli cells, and expanded caudal epididymides with a vast number of spermatozoa; the females had many Graafian follicles and corpora lutea in large ovaries, and developed uterine glands in the thick endometria. The lower ratios of the testis weight to the body weight in July and August in 1994 compared to 1995 seemed due to the extreme drought and considerably higher temperature in 1994, but the decrease in the ratio in mid-summer, only in the old mice, in both years might be explained partially by aging.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2020.06a
• /
• pp.38-38
• /
• 2020

SPI지수는 강수량이 감소하기 시작하면 필요한 물수요에 비해서 상대적으로 물부족을 유발하게 되고, 가뭄발생의 발단이 된다는 것에 착안하여 개발된 지수이다. 하지만 다른 가뭄지수와 마찬가지로 강수량 또는 유출량 시계열을 상대적인 표준정규분포로 산정하였기 때문에 인근 지역에 비해 상대적으로 강수량이 많은 지역도 실제로 발생하지 않은 가뭄이 발생한다고 분석이 된다. 이러한 현상을 완화시키기 위해 수정된 가뭄분석 기법이 요구된다. 이에 Jeung et. al(2019)은 이런 현상을 완화시키기 위해 SPI지수 계산과정에서 해당지점의 시계열을 대상으로 계산되는 Gamma 분포를 전국으로 확장 시켜 산정 후 표준정규분포에 적용하여 가뭄지수를 산정하였다. 또한 과거 제한급수가 발생했던 지역을 대상으로 극한가뭄과 가뭄지속기간을 이용하여 M-SPI지수의 효용성을 확인한 결과, 제한급수 실시년도와 SPI, M-SPI 결과와의 비교결과 과거 가뭄을 정확하게 모사하는 것을 확인하였다. 하지만 M-SPI는 전국을 하나의 지역으로 가정하여 산정하였고, 증발산량과, 고도 등 지형의 특성을 고려하지 않았기 때문에 일부의 가뭄사상을 재현하지 못하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기상학적 인자와, 지형학적 인자를 고려하여 지역화를 하고, 각 지역별로 대표 확률분포를 산정하여 가뭄지수를 산정하고자 한다. 또한 한국 기상청에서 제공하고 있는 국가 표준기후변화 시나리오를 수집하여 M-SPI에 적용하여 미래 극한 가뭄빈도의 변화를 전망하고자 한다.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.33 no.2
• /
• pp.223-246
• /
• 2023

This paper summarized the research papers on weather extremes that occurred in the Republic of Korea, which were published in the domestic and foreign journals during 1963~2022. Weather extreme is defined as a weather phenomenon that causes serious casualty and property loss; here, it includes typhoon, heavy rain, drought, heat wave, cold surge, heavy snow, and strong gust. Based on the 2011~2020 statistics in Korea, above 80% of property loss due to all natural disasters were caused by typhoons and heavy rainfalls. However, the impact of the other weather extremes can be underestimated rather than we have actually experienced; the property loss caused by the other extremes is hard to be quantitatively counted. Particularly, as global warming becomes serious, the influence of drought and heat wave has been increasing. The damages caused by cold surges, heavy snow, and strong gust occurred over relatively local areas on short-term time scales compared to other weather hazards. In particularly, strong gust accompanied with drought may result in severe forest fires over mountainous regions. We hope that the present review paper may remind us of the importance of weather extremes that directly affect our lives.