• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제37권7호
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• pp.553-567
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• 2004

본 연구에서는 SPI의 문제점을 보완하는 측면에서 수정 SPI(MSPI)를 제안하고, 이를 서울지점의 가물분석에 적용하여 비교하였다. MSPI는 강수량을 이동평균하기 전에 정규화 하는 과정을 추가하는 경우로 SPI가 강수의 절대량을 이월하는 반면 MSPI는 강수의 상대량을 이월하는 형태를 가지게 된다. 서울지점 월강수량자료는 1777년-1996년까지의 것으로 각각 전체자료 및 1900년을 전후로 한 장기건조기의 전반부 및 후반부를 따로 분석하여 비교될 수 있도록 하였다. 그 결과를 정리하면 다음과 같다. (1) MSPI가 SPI에 비해 보다 현실적인 결과를 준다. 이는 1900년도 전후로의 장기건조기가 포함된 기록과 포함되지 않은 기록을 분석한 결과의 비교에서 확인되었다. (2) MSPI는 SPI에 비해 극단적인 강수사상에 덜 민감한 결과를 준다. 장기건조기의 전반부 및 후반부에 대해 MSPI를 적용한 결과를 비교하면 가뭄의 발생가능성은 보통 가뭄의 경우는 대체로 비슷하나 아주 심한 가뭄의 경우는 약간 줄어들었음을 파악할 수 있다(재현기간 약 18년에서 16년으로). 그러나 가뭄 발생 시 그 지속기간은 전반부에 비해 후반부가 길게 나타나고 있다(아주 심한 가뭄의 경우 약 2개월에서 2.5개월로). 이러한 결과는 상대적으로 극단적인 결과로 나타내는 SPI(아주 심한 가뭄의 경우 재현기간은 약 25년에서 10년으로, 지속기간은 1.5개월에서 3.5개월로)에 비해 보다 현실적이라고 판단할 수 있다.

• 문화기술의 융합
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.171-179
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• 2023

인간에 의한 기후변화로 전 지구적 이상 기상현상이 발생해 재난이 증가하고 있다. 주요 선진국(군)은 극한기상 출몰에 따른 재난을 대비 중이다. 다만, 현재 방재계획·설비가 통계 데이터를 바탕으로 한 빈도·강도법을 기준으로 시행되었는데, 잦아지는 극한기상에 따른 재난을 확률 근거 기반 대비로는 부족하다. 미군과 영국군은 가장 빨리 기후변화 및 재난양상 변화 위협 관련 연구 및 정책적 접근을 해왔고, 기후변화 완화 및 적응 모두 고려하고 있다. 우리 군은 재난에 대한 인식을 '풍수해' 정도로 여기며, 기후변화 양상에 따른 극한기상과 재난에 대한 논의가 부족한 편이다. 본 연구에서는 선진국(미국과 영국)의 재난관리시스템 구축과정을 살펴보고 기후위기와 극한기상이 출몰하는 상황에서 각 국(군)의 대응 정책을 문헌분석 기법을 활용해 분석하였다. 우리 군은 빈틈없는 안보를 유지하기 위해 지속가능성과 회복탄력성에 초점을 둔 대응정책을 수립해야하며, 다음 세 가지 정책적 접근이 필요하다. 첫째, 기후변화로 변화될 환경에 대비한 미래 한반도 작전 환경 분석이 필요하다. 둘째, 지속가능성을 위해 기후변화 '적응정책'에 대한 논의가 필요하다. 셋째, 기후변화로 인해 발생 가능한 미래재난에 대한 대비가 필요하다.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국신재생에너지학회 2010년도 추계학술대회 초록집
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• pp.185.1-185.1
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• 2010

The 3MW OWEC demonstrator project in Korea will be the first offshore wind project with Korean turbine, Doosan WinDS3000, and constructed on the north-eastern sea of Jeju Island as the water depth of 15m. Integrated loadings of wind and wave are investigated to describe a design loads for both extreme and fatigue conditions using GH-Bladed. A dynamic behaviour of substructure strongly affects a substructure loadings. The jacket structure is designed in accordance with DNV guidelines. The results of this paper show overall design process of offshore substructure as a complex jacket concept and this design process can be implemented on a design of monopile and tripod structures.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제32권3호
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• pp.29-44
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• 2004

Obtaining and fully understanding the true requirements of customers is hard task. However, successful use of quality function deployment(QFD) depends on capturing customers' requirements and reflecting them during the design of a product. One of common mistakes in QFD is to perform analysis using an inconsistent house of quality(HoQ) chart. This article presents a model for prioritizing customer attributes and design characteristics in order to make a product more attractive to customers. The proposed model modifies the analytic hierarchical process(AHP) with simple pairwise comparison. Our exploration using of QFD identifies how practitioners maintain consistency, whist quantifying HoQ speedily from the customer's perspectives. This paper also identifies and justifies an alternative position on QFD that is supported by statistical examples.

• Korean Journal of Mathematics
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.529-552
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• 2014

As we know, some indices and data are strong influence to the price movement of some assets now, but not to another assets and in future. Thus we define some asset models for several time intervals; intraday, weekly, monthly, and yearly asset models. We define these asset models by using Brownian motion with volatility and Poisson process, and several deterministic functions(index function, twitter data function and big-jump simple function etc). In our asset models, these deterministic functions are the positive or negative levels of auxiliary indices, of analyzed data, and for imminent and extreme state(for example, financial shock or the highest popularity in the market). These functions determined by indices, twitter data and shocking news are a kind of one of speciality of our asset models. For reasonableness of our asset models, we introduce several real data, figurers and tables, and simulations. Perhaps from our asset models, for short-term or long-term investment, we can classify and reference many kinds of usual auxiliary indices, information and data.

• 한국기계가공학회지
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.82-87
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• 2012

For different ferrite-pearlite matrix structure, contain more than 90% spheroidal ratio of graphite, GCD 45-3, GCD 50, GCD 60 series and 70%, 80%, 90% spheroidal ratio of graphite, GCD 40, GCD 45-1, GCD 45-2 series, this paper has carried out rotary bending fatigue test, estimated maximum and mean size of spheroidal graphite, investigated correlation. It was concluded as follows. (1) Fatigue limit in $10^7$cycles and numbers of spheroidal graphite per 1$mm^2$ was linear relation. (2) projection area of graphite can be used to predict fatigue limit of Ductile Cast Iron. The Statistical distribution of extreme values of projection area of defects may be used as a guideline for the control of inclusion size in the steelmaking processes.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.136-142
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• 1996

Automatic monitoring of cutting process is one of the most important technology in machining. AE sensing technology has been applied to monitoring process and proved to be effective in detecting tool abnor- malities such as tool wear and fracture. In this experimental study. AE signals were detected from the tool holder for continuous and interrupted cutting, which obtained from changing workpice material configuration, under control of constant cutting speed from CNC lathe. From statistical and frequency analysis, the AE signals were analyzed to obtaining the characteristics of continuous and interrupted cutting conditions and tool failure. The Kurtosis values decreased but RMS voltages increased as the cutting speed increased, in both continuous and interrupted cutting. RMS voltage is suddenly increased but Kurtosis value is suddenly decreased when tool failure condition. Power spectrum density of AE signals when tool failure reaches extreme value around 0.065 cycles/ .mu. m.

• 한국기계가공학회지
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• 제19권7호
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• pp.35-40
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• 2020

This work is concerned with various planar deformations of an isotropic sandwich beam, which generally consists of three layers: two stiff skin layers and one soft core layer. When one layer of the sandwich beam is modeled as a beam, the variational-asymptotic method is rigorously used to construct a zeroth-order beam model, which is similar to a generalized Timoshenko beam model capable of capturing the transverse shear deformations but still carries out the zeroth-order approximation. To analyze the planar sandwich beam, the sum of the energies of the two skin layers and one core layer is then formulated with different material and geometric properties and represented by a universal beam model in terms of the core-layer kinematics through interface displacement and stress continuity conditions. As a preliminary validation, two extreme examples are presented to demonstrate the capability and accuracy of this present approach.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.235-251
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• 1999

In this paper we examine extremal behavior of a $textsc{k}$th-order stationary Markov chain {X\ulcorner} by considering excesses over a high level which typically appear in clusters. Excesses over a high level within a cluster define a cluster damage, i.e., a normalized sum of all excesses within a cluster, and all excesses define a damage point process. Under some distributional assumptions for {X\ulcorner}, we prove convergence in distribution of the cluster damage and obtain a representation for the limiting cluster damage distribution which is well suited for simulation. We also derive formulas for the mean and the variance of the limiting cluster damage distribution. These results guarantee a compound Poisson limit for the damage point process, provided that it is strongly mixing.

• 소성∙가공
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.35-42
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• 2000

In this paper, we developed the hydroforming simulator which can apply an axial compressive force and high internal pressure to bulge a tube. Experimental dtudies have been performed to investigate the effect of each parameters such as internal pressure and axial compression stroke required for the forming of circular components. Under the improper forming conditions there were two forming failures. One was the axial buckling due to excessive axial compressive load and the other was the circumferential necking fracture due to relatively high internal pressure. A safe forming zone without any failures exists between these two extreme zones. Also the condition of forming failure such as fracture is examined throughout the theoretical analysis. This paper covers a brief overview of the mechanism of hydroforming process as well as the design of die and tools.