• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제31권5호
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• pp.439-452
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• 2022

A forecast of slope behavior during catastrophic events, such as earthquakes is crucial to recognize the risk of slope failure. This paper endeavors to eliminate the significant supposition of predefined slip surfaces in the slope stability analysis, which questions the relevance of simple conventional methods under seismic conditions. To overcome such limitations, a methodology dependent on the slip line hypothesis, which permits an automatic generation of slip surfaces, is embraced to trace the extreme slope face under static and seismic conditions. The effect of earthquakes is considered using the pseudo-static approach. The current outcomes developed from a parametric study endorse a non-linear slope surface as the extreme profile, which is in accordance with the geomorphological aspect of slopes. The proposed methodology is compared with the finite element limit analysis to ensure credibility. Through the design charts obtained from the current investigation, the stability of slopes can be assessed under seismic conditions. It can be observed that the extreme slope profile demands a flat configuration to endure the condition of the limiting equilibrium at a higher level of seismicity. However, a concurrent enhancement in the shear strength of the slope medium suppresses this tendency by offering greater resistance to the seismic inertial forces induced in the medium. Unlike the traditional linear slopes, the extreme slope profiles mostly exhibit a steeper layout over a significant part of the slope height, thus ensuring a more optimized solution to the slope stability problem. Further, the susceptibility of the Longnan slope failure in the Huining-Wudu seismic belt is predicted using the current plasticity approach, which is found to be in close agreement with a case study reported in the literature. Finally, the concept of equivalent single or multi-tiered planar slopes is explored through an example problem, which exhibits the appropriateness of the proposed non-linear slope geometry under actual field conditions.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제40권9호
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• pp.709-722
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• 2007

우리나라는 여름철의 큰 호우로 인해 주기적인 홍수피해가 발생하며, 이러한 호우의 원인은 태풍과 집중호우로 구분 할 수 있다 태풍은 열대 지방에서 발생하여 주기적으로 우리나라를 내습하여 극심한 강우와 강풍으로 인해 큰 피해를 발생시키고 있으며, 일반적으로 태풍에 의한 피해가 집중호우보다 큰 것으로 알려져 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 우리나라에 발생하는 강우 사상을 태풍과 집중호우로 구분하여 호우 원인별로 지속시간별 연 최대 강우량을 구축하였다. 따라서 발생 원인별로 구축된 시간강우자료의 통계분석을 통해 기본적인 특성을 파악하고 빈도해석을 통해 강우의 발생 원인별로 확률강우량을 산정하여 비교 분석하였다. 분석 결과에서 태풍에 의해 산정된 확률강우량은 지속시간과 재현기간이 커질수록 확률강우량의 증가가 전호우에 의한 확률강우량 보다 큰 지점이 있는 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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• 제65권4호
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• pp.792-803
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• 2023

This study aimed to assess the impact of weather events on the sorghum-sudangrass hybrid (Sorghum bicolor L.) cultivar production trend in the central inland region of Korea during the monsoon season, using time series analysis. The sorghum-sudangrass production data collected between 1988 and 2013 were compiled along with the production year's weather data. The growing degree days (GDD), accumulated rainfall, and sunshine duration were used to assess their impacts on forage production (kg/ha) trend. Conversely, GDD and accumulated rainfall had positive and negative effects on the trend of forage production, respectively. Meanwhile, weather events such as heavy rainfall and typhoon were also collected based on weather warnings as weather events in the Korean monsoon season. The impact of weather events did not affect forage production, even with the increasing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall. Therefore, the trend of forage production for the sorghum-sudangrass hybrid was forecasted to slightly increase until 2045. The predicted forage production in 2045 will be 14,926 ± 6,657 kg/ha. It is likely that the damage by heavy rainfall and typhoons can be reduced through more frequent harvest against short-term single damage and a deeper extension of the root system against soil erosion and lodging. Therefore, in an environment that is rapidly changing due to climate change and extreme/abnormal weather, the cultivation of the sorghum-sudangrass hybrid would be advantageous in securing stable and robust forage production. Through this study, we propose the cultivation of sorghum-sudangrass hybrid as one of the alternative summer forage options to achieve stable forage production during the dynamically changing monsoon, in spite of rather lower nutrient value than that of maize (Zea mays L.).

• 한국제4기학회지
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.47-54
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• 2003

Climate of Mongolia is a driven force on natural conditions as well as socio-economic development of the country. Due to the precariousness of climate conditions and traditional economic structure, natural disasters, specially disasters of meteorological and hydrological origin, have substantial effect upon the natural resources and socio-economic sectors of Mongolia. Mongolia's climate is characterized by high variability of weather parameters, and high frequency and magnitude of extreme climate and weather events. During the last few decades, climate of the country is changing significantly under the global warning. The annual mean air temperature for the whole territory of the country has increased by $1.56^{\circ}C$ during the last 60 years,. The winter temperature has increased by $1.56^{\circ}C$. These changes in temperature are spatially variable: winter warming is more pronounced in the high mountains and wide valleys between the mountains, and less so in the steppe and Gobi regions. There is a slight trend of increased precipitation during the last 60 years. The average precipitation rate is increased during 1940-1998 by 6%. This trend is not seasonally consistent: while summer precipitation increased by 11 %, spring precipitation decreased by 17. The climate change studies in Mongolia show that climate change will have a significant impact on natural resources such as water resources, natural rangeland, land use, snow cover, permafrost as well as major economic activities of arable farming, livestock, and society (i.e. human health, living standards, etc.) of Mongolia. Therefore, in new century, sustainable development of the country is defined by mitigating and adaptation policies of climate change. The objective of the presentation is to contribute one's idea in the how to reflect the changes in climate system and weather extreme events in the country's sustainable development concept.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권6호
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• pp.45-52
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• 2012

Along with global warming, ever intensifying weather events have increased damages to agricultural farms and facilities. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial distribution and regional characteristics of agricultural damages by extreme weather events. Agricultural disaster statistics provided by the National Emergency Management Agency were summed over for a 13-year period from 1998 to 2010 and used for the spatial analysis. Two indices of damage area ration and property damage per unit area were introduced to quantify regional agricultural damages. As the results, farm inundation accounted for the largest area primarily damaged by typhoons with heavy rainfalls. Most property damages to farm lands originated from farm erosion in the alpine regions by localized guerrilla rains. The two major causes of damages to greenhouse and livestock facilities were typhoon with strong wind and winter blizzards. Gangwon was the province of the largest property loss mostly from farm land erosion losses, followed by Gyeongnam, Jeonnam, and Chungnam where losses to greenhouse and livestock facilities were relatively greater. Property loss per unit area was also the greatest for the Gangwon province (4.91 M\/ha), followed by Gyongnam and Chungnam of 2.20 and 1.50 M\/ha, respectively. Unit loss for greenhouse and livestock facilities was 13.3 M\/ha, approximately 13 times greater than that for farm land (1.06 M\/ha). The study findings indicated the importance of reducing highland farm erosion and reinforcing farming facilities structures for agricultural disaster management.

• 대기
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.401-413
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• 2012

In this study, an investigation has been carried out to understand 1) temporal variation of rainfall amount in summer over south Korea during the 30-year period of 1979-2008 and 2) the relationship between the variation of rainfall amount and the change of large-scale monsoon circulation around 1993/1994 over East Asia. The analysis of rainfall amount is carried out separately for whole summer (June-August), climatological Changma period of 23 June-23 July, and August to consider variations within summer. To relate the variation of rainfall amount with the change of large-scale circulation, we have considered two 15-year periods of 1979-1993 and 1994-2008. This study has used observations at 58 stations in South Korea and NCEP-NCAR $2.5^{\circ}{\times}2.5^{\circ}$ reanalysis data. The major change in synoptic environment for the Changma period is characterized by the intensified anticyclone over Mongolia during 1994-2008, which results in a weak meridional oscillation of Changma front. As a result, rainfall amount for the Changma period and the frequency of extreme events have significantly increased after 1993/1994. A major change of synoptic environment for August is the significant westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high, which allows not only more moisture transports but also stronger cyclonic circulation over the Korean peninsula. Rainfall amount for August and frequency of extreme events have also increased after 1993/1994. However, variability of rainfall amount is larger for August than that for the Changma period, with some years showing very dry August (monthly rainfall amount less than 150 mm).

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제27권6호
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• pp.743-753
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• 2011

One of the most important water management issues of Soyang Reservoir, located in North Han River in Korea, is a long term discharge of turbid water to downstream during flood season. Installation of a selective withdrawal structure (SWS) is planned by the reservoir management institute as a control measure of outflow water quality and associated negative impacts on downstream water use and ecosystem. The objective of the study was to explore the effectiveness of the SWS on the control of outflow turbidity under two different hydrological years; one for normal flood year and another for extreme flood year. A two-dimensional (2D), laterally averaged hydrodynamic and water quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) was set up and calibrated for the reservoir and used to evaluate the performance of the proposed SWS. The results revealed that the SWS can be an effective method when the ${\Theta}$ value, the ratio between the amount of turbid water that containing suspended sediment (SS) greater than 25 mg/L and the total storage of the reservoir, is 0.59 during the normal flood year. However, the effectiveness of the SWS could be marginal or negative in the extreme flood year when ${\Theta}$ was 0.83. The results imply that the SWS is an effective alternative for the control of turbid water for moderate flood events, but not a sufficient measure for large flood events that are expected to happen more often in the future because of climate change.

• 대한원격탐사학회지
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.179-188
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• 2022

지구온난화는 기후변화를 야기하며 전지구적으로 이상기상 현상을 유발하고 있다. 우리나라에서도 폭염, 가뭄과 같은 이상기상 현상이 증가하고 있는 상황이다. 이상기상 감시를 위하여 지표면온도(Land Surface Temperature, LST), 온도상태지수(Temperature Condition Index, TCI), 식생활력지수(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI), 식생상태지수(Vegetation Condition Index, VCI), 식생건강지수(Vegetation Health Index, VHI) 등의 위성자료가 활용되고 있다. TCI와 VCI를 이용하여 계산되는 VHI는 온도, 강수와 같은 기상 요인에 의한 식생 스트레스를 나타내며, 기후변화 상황에서 가뭄 평가에 주로 활용되고 있다. TCI, VCI는 날짜 및 장소에 따른 LST, NDVI의 과거 평년치를 참조해서 산출되기 때문에, 아직 2년여의 자료밖에 없는 천리안위성 2A호(GK2A) AMI (Advanced Meteorological Imager) 자료로부터 TCI, VCI, VHI를 산출하는 것은 현재로서는 쉽지 않은 일이다. 본 연구에서는 대안적인 방법으로 VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) 센서의 LST, NDVI를 이용하여 GK2A의 VHI 산출 가능성을 모색하였다. GK2A와 VIIRS의 LST, NDVI는 상당히 높은 상관성을 보이기 때문에, GK2A에 존재하지 않는 과거 평년치를 VIIRS 자료로 대체하는 방식을 택하였다. 8일 간격으로 GK2A 격자에 해당하는 LST, NDVI의 최소·최대값 조견표를 구축하여 TCI, VCI, VHI를 산출하였고, 최근 우리나라 이상기상 현상에 대한 해석을 수행하였다. GK2A VHI는 2020년 3월과 6월의 폭염, 4월과 7월의 저온, 8월의 폭우 등으로 인한 식생 스트레스의 변화를 잘 표현하는 것으로 나타났지만, 미국 해양대기청(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA)의 VHI 산출물은 그렇지 않았다. 본 연구에서 제시한 GK2A VHI는 향후 LST, NDVI의 과거 평년치에 대한 통계적으로 엄밀한 보완을 거친다면 폭염, 가뭄으로 인한 식생 스트레스 감시에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2004년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.227-234
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• 2004

최근 초대형 태풍의 내습으로 한국 연안해역에 치명적인 타격을 가져왔고 이로 인해 연안구조물의 설계기준을 재고해야 한다는 논의가 되고 있다. 극한파랑을 입력으로 한 파랑변환의 계산은 특히 해안역의 계획 및 건설 작업 분야에서 의미가 있다 본 연구에서 태풍으로 인한 수위의 변화예측은 물리모델에서나 실제현장에서 다루기가 매우 어렵기 때문에 수치모델에 주로 근거를 두었다. 복잡한 해안선 및 구조물 해역에 대한 파랑변환 수치모델을 다루고 극한파랑의 입력을 위해 광역에서의 태풍매미의 도래시 관측과 수치모텔의 분석에서 도입하였다. 최종적으로 한국 남해안의 부산항에서 폭풍고조 및 극한파랑의 문제에 위에서 기술한 모델을 적용하여 수위상승의 효과와 극한파랑의 변환을 해안역 침수와 관련하여 분석하였다. 아울러 관심대상역에서 기초적인 재해위험지도를 제시해 보았다.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제28권1B호
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• pp.41-53
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• 2008

기후변화가 가시화되면서 극심한 폭우, 폭염과 시기상 발생하지 않았던 장마철 이후의 집중호우 등 과거에는 관측된 적이 없던 이례적인 현상이 나타나고 있다. 최근 들어 이들의 출현빈도는 점차 증가하고 있으나 규칙적인 패턴이나 일정한 주기에 따라 발생하지 않는 것이 큰 특징이라 할 수 있다. 따라서 기후변화 연구 방법 중의 하나인 연자료 및 연평균 자료 이용 및 분석 연구를 바탕으로 하여 극한 사상의 발생빈도와 경향성과 같은 특성을 분석할 수 있는 연구가 수반되어야 할 것으로 판단된다. 본 논문에서는 강우와 기온에 관련하여 객관성과 일관성을 유지할 수 있는 극한 지수를 설정하고, 이에 근거하여 우리나라 전역에 위치한 기상청 산하 총 66개 관측소의 과거 자료를 분석하였다. 이들 자료의 통계적 유의성을 파악하기 위하여 통계적 진단으로 선형회귀 및 Kendall-Tau 방법을 적용하였다. 이 지수들의 경향성을 분석한 결과, 강수량은 점차 증가하는 반면, 강수일수는 감소하는 것으로 나타났으며 계절적으로 보았을 때에는 가을철(9~11월)보다 여름철(6~8월)에 강우 발생률과 집중호우 한계 기준이 더 크게 증가하였다. 한편, 여름철(6~8월)에 비하여 겨울철(12~2월)의 기온 상승 경향성이 더 크게 증가하는 것으로 나타났으며, 이러한 현상은 대체적으로 해안지역보다는 내륙 전반에 걸쳐 고르게 분포하였다. 또한 우리나라 전반에서 겨울철 동결일수가 감소하는 경향을 보임으로써, 여러 문헌을 통해 이미 확인된 것처럼 기후변화 진행에 따른 영향으로 겨울철 기온이 상승하는 경향이 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.