• Title/Summary/Keyword: Experimental Validation

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Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

Simulation and model validation of Biomass Fast Pyrolysis in a fluidized bed reactor using CFD (전산유체역학(CFD)을 이용한 유동층반응기 내부의 목질계 바이오매스 급속 열분해 모델 비교 및 검증)

  • Ju, Young Min;Euh, Seung Hee;Oh, Kwang cheol;Lee, Kang Yol;Lee, Beom Goo;Kim, Dae Hyun
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.200-210
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    • 2015
  • The modeling for fast pyrolysis of biomass in fluidized bed reactor has been developed for accurate prediction of bio-oil and gas products and for yield improvement. The purpose of this study is to analyze and to compare the CFD(Computational Fluid Dynamics) simulation results with the experimental data from the CFD simulation results with the experimental data from the reference(Mellin et al., 2014) for gas products generated during fast pyrolysis of biomass in fluidized bed reactor. CFD(ANSYS FLUENT v.15.0) was used for the simulation. Complex pyrolysis reaction scheme of biomass subcomponents was applied for the simulation of pyrolysis reaction. This pyrolysis reaction scheme was included reaction of cellulose, hemicellulose, lignin in detail, gas products obtained from pyrolysis were mainly $CO_2$, CO, $CH_4$, $H_2$, $C_2H_4$. The deviation between the simulation results from this study and experimental data from the reference was calculated about 3.7%p, 4.6%p, 3.9%p for $CH_4$, $H_2$, $C_2H_4$ respectively, whereas 9.6%p and 6.7%p for $CO_2$ and CO which are relatively high. Through this study, it is possible to predict gas products accurately by using CFD simulation approach. Moreover, this modeling approach should be developed to predict fluidized bed reactor performance and other gas product yields.

An Experimental and Numerical Study on the Survivability of a Long Pipe-Type Buoy Structure in Waves (긴 파이프로 이뤄진 세장형 부이 구조물의 파랑 중 생존성에 관한 모형시험 및 수치해석 연구)

  • Kwon, Yong-Ju;Nam, Bo-Woo;Kim, Nam-Woo;Park, In-Bo;Kim, Sea-Moon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.427-436
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    • 2018
  • In this study, experimental and numerical analysis were performed on the survivability of a long pipe-type buoy structure in waves. The buoy structure is an articulated tower consisting of an upper structure, buoyancy module, and gravity anchor with long pipes forming the base frame. A series of experiment were performed in the ocean engineering basin of KRISO with the scaled model of 1/ 22 to evaluate the survivability of the buoy structure at West Sea in South Korea. Survival condition was considered as the wave of 50 year return period. Additional experiments were performed to investigate the effects of current and wave period. The factors considered for the evaluation of the buoy's survival were the pitch angle of the structure, anchor reaction force, and the number of submergence of the upper structure. Numerical simulations were carried out with the OrcaFlex, the commercial program for the mooring analysis, with the aim of performing mutual validation with the experimental results. Based on the evaluation, the behavior characteristics of the buoy structure were first examined according to the tidal conditions. The changes were investigated for the pitch angle and anchor reaction force at HAT and LAT conditions, and the results directly compared with those obtained from numerical simulation. Secondly, the response characteristics of the buoy structure were studied depending on the wave period and the presence of current velocity. Third, the number of submergence through video analysis was compared with the simulation results in relation to the submergence of the upper structure. Finally, the simulation results for structural responses which were not directly measured in the experiment were presented, and the structural safety discussed in the survival waves. Through a series of survivability evaluation studies, the behavior characteristics of the buoy structure were examined in survival waves. The vulnerability and utility of the buoy structure were investigated through the sensitivity studies of waves, current, and tides.

Characterization of Respirable Suspended Particles and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons associated with Environmental Tobacco Smoke

  • Baek, Sung-Ok;Park, Jin-Soo;Kim, Mi-Hyun;Roger A, Jenkins
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.16 no.E
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2000
  • In this study, the concentrations of particulate organic constituents of environmental tobacco smoke(ETS) were determined using an environmental smog chamber, where ETS is the sole source of target compounds. ETS was generated in a 30 ㎥ environmental chamber by a number of different cigarettes, including the Kentucky 1R4F reference cigarette and eight commercial brands. A total of 12 experimental runs was conducted, and target analytes included a group of ETS markers both in vapor and particulate phase and a class of polycylic aromatic hydrocarbos(PAHs) associated with ETS particles. The mass concentrations of PAH in ETS particles were also determined. The average contents of benzo(a) pyrene and benzo(a) anthracene in ETS particles for the commercial brands were 12.8 and 21.5$\mu\textrm{g}$/g, respectively, There values are all somewhat higher than those determined previously by other studies. Results form the chamber study are further used to estimate the average and variability of cigarette yields for target compounds associated with ETS. Finally, ratios of RSP to the surrogate standards of UVPM, FPM and solanesol were calculated for each sample. The average conversion factors factors for the eight commercial brands were 7.3, 38, and 41 for UVPM, EPM, and solanesol, respectively. The UVPM and FPM factors are in good agreement with the recently published values. Whereas there might be a substantial difference in the solanesol content among cigarettes produced in different countries, the variability is somewhat greater than those of UVPM and FPM, Unfortunately, comparison of the PAH yield data from this study with literature values was complicated by a lack of consistency in cigarette smoke generating methodology. Validation of the PAH yields was also difficult due to a lack of information on the ETS related PAH in the literature. From and engineering viewpoint , however, these data on the cigarette yields of ETS components may still provide useful information to studies on the mathematical modeling of indoor air quality management regarding tobacco smoke as a source of interest, or to studies on the assessment of human exposure to ETS.

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Computational Fluid Dynamics(CFD) Simulation and in situ Experimental Validation for the Urea-Based Selective Non-Catalytic Reduction(SNCR) Process in a Municipal Incinerator (생활폐기물 소각장 2차 연소로에서 요소용액을 이용한 선택적무촉매환원 공정에 대한 전산유체역학 모사 및 현장 검증)

  • Kang, Tae-Ho;Nguyen, Thanh D.B.;Lim, Young-Il;Kim, Seong-Joon;Eom, Won-Hyeon;Yoo, Kyung-Seun
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.630-638
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    • 2009
  • A computational fluid dynamics(CFD) model is developed and validated with on-site experiments for a urea-based SNCR(selective non-catalytic reduction) process to reduce the nitrogen oxides($NO_x$) in a municipal incinerator. The three-dimensional turbulent reacting flow CFD model having a seven global reaction mechanism under the condition of low CO concentration and 12% excess air and droplet evaporation is used for fluid dynamics simulation of the SNCR process installed in the incinerator. In this SNCR process, urea solution and atomizing air were injected into the secondary combustor, using one front nozzle and two side nozzles. The exit temperature($980^{\circ}C$) of simulation has the same value as in situ experiment one. The $NO_x$ reduction efficiencies of 57% and 59% are obtained from the experiment and CFD simulation, respectively at NSR=1.8(normalized stoichiometric ratio) for the equal flow rate ratio from the three nozzles. It is observed in the CFD simulations with varying the flowrate ratio of the three nozzles that the injection of a two times larger front nozzle flowrate than the side nozzle flowrate produces 8% higher $NO_x$ reduction efficiency than the injection of the equal ratio flowrate in each nozzle.

Predicting of the $^{14}C$ Activity in Rice Plants Exposed to $^{14}CO_2$ Gas for a Short Period of Time ($^{14}CO_2$가스에 단기간 노출된 벼의 $^{14}C$ 오염 예측)

  • Jun, In;Lim, Kwang-Muk;Keum, Dong-Kwon;Choi, Young-Ho;Han, Moon-Hee
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.135-141
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    • 2008
  • This paper describes a dynamic compartment model to predict the time-dependent $^{14}C$ activity in a plant as a result of a direct exposure to an amount of $^{14}CO_2$ for a short period of time, and experimental results for the model validation. In the model, the plant consists of two compartments of the body and ears, and five carbon fluxes between the compartments, which are the function of parameters relating to the growth and photosynthesis of a plant, are considered. Model predictions were made for an investigation into the effects of the exposure time, the elapsed exposure time, and the model parameters on the $^{14}C$ radioactivity of a plant. The present model converged to a region where the specific activity model is applicable when the elapsed time of the exposure was extended up to the harvest time of a plant. The $^{14}C$ activity of a plant was predicted to be the greatest when the exposure had happened in the period between the flowering and ears-maturity on account of the most vigorous photosynthesis rate for the period. Comparison of model predictions with the observed 14C radioactivity of rice plants showed that the present model could predict the $^{14}C$ radioactivity of the rice plants reasonably well.

Psychological distress and fertility quality of life (FertiQoL) in infertile Korean women: The first validation study of Korean FertiQoL

  • Chi, Hee-Jun;Park, Il-Hae;Sun, Hong-Gil;Kim, Jae-Won;Lee, Kyeong-Ho
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.174-180
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    • 2016
  • Objective: To investigate psychological distress and fertility quality of life (FertiQoL) in infertile Korean women, and to investigate whether a correlation exists between psychological distress and FertiQoL. Methods: Participants in this study were made up of 141 infertile women and 65 fertile women. We conducted a survey on psychological distress (using the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales [DASS]-42 questionnaire) and administered a FertiQoL questionnaire. The levels of stress hormones (adrenocorticotropic hormone [ACTH] and cortisol) in serum were assessed. Results: The scores for depression ($13.7{\pm}8.4$), anxiety ($10.7{\pm}6.4$), and stress ($18.0{\pm}8.3$) among the infertile women were significantly higher than the scores for depression ($9.4{\pm}7.5$), anxiety ($6.6{\pm}6.0$), and stress ($12.2{\pm}8.3$, p<0.001) among the fertile women. There was no difference in the scores for depression ($13.5{\pm}8.2$, $13.8{\pm}8.6$), anxiety ($10.0{\pm}6.2$, $11.5{\pm}6.6$) and stress ($17.7{\pm}8.4$, $18.4{\pm}8.1$) between younger (${\leq}34$) and older (${\geq}35$) participants. The mind-body (r =-0.495) and emotional (r =-0.590) subscales showed a higher negative correlation with stress compared with other scales of psychological distress. At the same time, the social (r =-0.537) and relational (r =-0.385) subscales showed a higher negative correlation with depression. Levels of cortisol and ACTH in infertile women were $9.1{\mu}g/mL$ and 11.9 pg/mL, respectively, which are within normal ranges. Conclusion: The levels of psychological distress and quality of life in infertile Korean women seem to require psychological intervention. This study provides a baseline measurement of psychological distress and FertiQoL in infertile women in Korea, which will be available for developing psychological interventions for infertile Korean women.

Forecasting the Precipitation of the Next Day Using Deep Learning (딥러닝 기법을 이용한 내일강수 예측)

  • Ha, Ji-Hun;Lee, Yong Hee;Kim, Yong-Hyuk
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.93-98
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    • 2016
  • For accurate precipitation forecasts the choice of weather factors and prediction method is very important. Recently, machine learning has been widely used for forecasting precipitation, and artificial neural network, one of machine learning techniques, showed good performance. In this paper, we suggest a new method for forecasting precipitation using DBN, one of deep learning techniques. DBN has an advantage that initial weights are set by unsupervised learning, so this compensates for the defects of artificial neural networks. We used past precipitation, temperature, and the parameters of the sun and moon's motion as features for forecasting precipitation. The dataset consists of observation data which had been measured for 40 years from AWS in Seoul. Experiments were based on 8-fold cross validation. As a result of estimation, we got probabilities of test dataset, so threshold was used for the decision of precipitation. CSI and Bias were used for indicating the precision of precipitation. Our experimental results showed that DBN performed better than MLP.

Application and Validation of Delay Dependent Parallel Distributed Compensation Controller for Rotary Wing System (회전익 시스템의 시간지연 종속 병렬분산보상제어기 적용과 검증)

  • You, Young-Jin;Choi, Yun-Sung;Jeong, Jin-Seok;Song, Woo-Jin;Kang, Beom-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.44 no.12
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    • pp.1043-1053
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, the application of Parallel Distributed Compensation (PDC) controller for fixed pitch rotary wing system was studied. For nonlinear modeling, T-S fuzzy model was utilized to advance system control including the tilt type UAV. PDC controller was designed through the Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI). Experiments for determining the applicability and feasibility of PDC were performed using the 1 axis attitude control equipment and simulation. To verify the performance and characteristics of the controller, Mathworks Co. Simulink was used. After then, the PDC controller performance was verified and the results with developed controller using a 1 axis attitude control equipment were compared. Verification of the feasibility of PDC controller for the fixed pitch rotary wing system and identification of the overall performance and improvement analysis was conducted based on the experimental results.

Recommendation of Nitrogen Topdressing Rates at Panicle Initiation Stage of Rice Using Canopy Reflectance

  • Nguyen, Hung T.;Lee, Kyu-Jong;Lee, Byun-Woo
    • Journal of Crop Science and Biotechnology
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.141-150
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    • 2008
  • The response of grain yield(GY) and milled-rice protein content(PC) to crop growth status and nitrogen(N) rates at panicle initiation stage(PIS) is critical information for prescribing topdress N rate at PIS(Npi) for target GY and PC. Three split-split-plot experiments including various N treatments and rice cultivars were conducted in Experimental Farm, Seoul National University, Korea in 2003-2005. Shoot N density(SND, g N in shoot $m^{-2}$) and canopy reflectance were measured before N application at PIS, and GY, PC, and SND were measured at harvest. Data from the first two years(2003-2004) were used for calibrating the predictive models for GY, PC, and SND accumulated from PIS to harvest using SND at PIS and Npi by multiple stepwise regression. After that the calibrated models were used for calculating N requirement at PIS for each of nine plots based on the target PC of 6.8% and the values of SND at PIS that was estimated by canopy reflectance method in the 2005 experiment. The result showed that SND at PIS in combination with Npi were successful to predict GY, PC, and SND from PIS to harvest in the calibration dataset with the coefficients of determination ($R^2$) of 0.87, 0.73, and 0.82 and the relative errors in prediction(REP, %) of 5.5, 4.3, and 21.1%, respectively. In general, the calibrated model equations showed a little lower performance in calculating GY, PC, and SND in the validation dataset(data from 2005) but REP ranging from 3.3% for PC and 13.9% for SND accumulated from PIS to harvest was acceptable. Nitrogen rate prescription treatment(PRT) for the target PC of 6.8% reduced the coefficient of variation in PC from 4.6% in the fixed rate treatment(FRT, 3.6g N $m^{-2}$) to 2.4% in PRT and the average PC of PRT was 6.78%, being very close to the target PC of 6.8%. In addition, PRT increased GY by 42.1 $gm^{-2}$ while Npi increased by 0.63 $gm^{-2}$ compared to the FRT, resulting in high agronomic N-use efficiency of 68.8 kg grain from additional kg N. The high agronomic N-use efficiency might have resulted from the higher response of grain yield to the applied N in the prescribed N rate treatment because N rate was prescribed based on the crop growth and N status of each plot.

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