• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expected price

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Land Price Fluctuation, Expectation, and Production (지가변동의 기대가 요소투입과 생산에 미치는 영향)

  • 한동근;남병탁
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.51-64
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    • 1998
  • This paper investigates how the factor inputs of firms are affected by the expectation about land-price increase in the future. We develope a two-factor (land and labor) model, in which expectation about land-price increase plays a key role in determining the "optimal" input level of labor and land. Expecting capital gains from input of the land when land price increases, firms input land up to the point where the marginal productivity of land falls short of the marginal cost of purchasing the land, in order to maximize the "joint-profit". That is, firms have an incentive to use more land than they do when capital gains are not expected. We mean joint-profit by profit in the standard sense plus capital gains. Once the land is input "excessively", the productivity of labor increase and labor is also input more, since land and labor are assumed as complementary in production. This mechanism works in the opposite direction when land price decrease. This paper suggests that land price fluctuation is a major destabilizer of an economy.or destabilizer of an economy.

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The Latest Trend on Production, Consumption and Price of Non-Ferrous Metals (비철금속(非鐵金屬)의 최근(最近)의 추이(推移))

  • Moon, W.J.
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.141-161
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    • 1970
  • The outline of general trend on production, consumption and price of non-ferrous metals during 1969 is summerized in the paper. The production of every non-ferrous metals has increased compare to that of last year, and their consumption except silver has also increased. Specially the rate of growth of production is that; The rate of growth of consumption is such; The prices of gold and silver have decreased since last November due to the stability of international currency and the creation of S.D.R. at I.M.F., but those of other metals have increased, marking the price at the end of 1969 as follows: Cupper price of Foreign Refinery showed ¢72.471/lb(increased 39% per year), lead and Zinc jumped up to the highest price since the Korean War (1951-1953), showing the lead price ¢16.50/lb (increased 27% per year) and the zinc price ¢15.50/lb (increased 15% per year). Price of tungsten was higher than the agreed price that was made between Korea and U.S.A. during 1951 through 1954, showing $63.4/S.T.U. (increased 13% per year). The price of molybdenum was slightly increased from $1.62 to $1.72 (increased 6% per year). In summing up, the year of 1969 was the golden age for the nonferrous metals. It is, hawever, expected that in the next few years, the consumption rate and the prices of non-ferrous metals will be declined compared to those of 1969.

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The Impact of Investor Sentiment on Energy and Stock Markets-Evidence : China and Hong Kong

  • Ho, Liang-Chun
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.75-83
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - The oil price affects company value, which is the present value of the expected cash flow, by affecting the discount rate and cash flow. This study examines the nonlinear relationships between oil price and stock price using the AlphaShares Chinese Volatility Index as the threshold. Research design, data, and methodology - Data comprise daily closing values of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Composite Index, and Hang Seng Index of ChinaWest Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price and AlphaShares Chinese Volatility Index from May 25, 2007 to May 24, 2012. The Threshold Error Correction Model is used. Results - The results demonstrate different relationships between the stock price index and oil price under different investor sentiments; however, the stock price index and oil price could adjust to a long-term equilibrium the long-term causality tests between them were all significant. Conclusions - The relationship between the WTI and HANG SENG Index is more significant than the Shanghai Composites Index and Shenzhen Composite Index, when using the AlphaShares Chinese Volatility Index (ASC-VIX) as the investor sentiment variable and threshold.

PRICE ESTIMATION VIA BAYESIAN FILTERING AND OPTIMAL BID-ASK PRICES FOR MARKET MAKERS

  • Hyungbin Park;Junsu Park
    • Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.61 no.5
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    • pp.875-898
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    • 2024
  • This study estimates the true price of an asset and finds the optimal bid/ask prices for market makers. We provide a novel state-space model based on the exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck volatility and the Heston models with Gaussian noise, where the traded price and volume are available, but the true price is not observable. An objective of this study is to use Bayesian filtering to estimate the posterior distribution of the true price, given the traded price and volume. Because the posterior density is intractable, we employ the guided particle filtering algorithm, with which adaptive rejection metropolis sampling is used to generate samples from the density function of an unknown distribution. Given a simulated sample path, the posterior expectation of the true price outperforms the traded price in estimating the true price in terms of both the mean absolute error and root-mean-square error metrics. Another objective is to determine the optimal bid/ask prices for a market maker. The profit-and-loss of the market maker is the difference between the true price and its bid/ask prices multiplied by the traded volume or bid/ask size of the market maker. The market maker maximizes the expected utility of the PnL under the posterior distribution. We numerically calculate the optimal bid/ask prices using the Monte Carlo method, finding that its spread widens as the market maker becomes more risk-averse, and the bid/ask size and the level of uncertainty increase.

Real Option Analysis on Posco A/R CDM Project under CER Price Uncertainty (CER 가격 불확실성을 고려한 A/R CDM 사업의 실물옵션 분석: 포스코 A/R CDM 사업 분석)

  • Hong, Wonkyung;Park, Hojeong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.459-487
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    • 2011
  • A/R CDM project has properties such as irreversibility and uncertainty that Real Option Analysis can be applied to its modelling. This study tries to model A/R CDM using Real Option under CER price uncertainty, and conducts empirical test with the Posco A/R CDM Project case. For precise comparison and decision-making, l-CER's expected present value is calculated from the Spot CER price. As a result, the critical value of the project is lower than the expected l-CER price, which means that the decision to invest made by the project owner is profitable. We can also find out that the level and the range of the discount rate, where is applied to, affect the result; the critical value of the project and the decision-making.

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The Qualitative Study on Consumers' Price Related Response in Clothing Purchase Decision-Making Process (의복구매 의사결정과정의 가격관련반응에 따른 단계적 구분과 특성에 관한 질적 연구)

  • Yoon, Nam-Hee;Rhee, Eun-Young
    • Fashion & Textile Research Journal
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.537-548
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    • 2009
  • Consumers' price related response in the clothing purchase decision-making process includes their expectation of price, price perception, attitude toward price and consequent behaviors. The purposes of this research are to systematically organize consumers' price related responses in the clothing purchase decision-making process, and to explain the effect of price on their purchasing. The qualitative research including shopping observation and in-depth interview was conducted. The result identified stages that showed different price related responses in clothing purchase decision-making process, and clarified each stage's characteristics. In the internal search stage, consumers recalled price information from memory and had a specific expectation about the price. This set a direction for the external search. In the external search stage, consumers selected brands or stores by a non-compensatory evaluating with an expectation of the price, and narrowed these down to several determinant alternatives by actively evaluating the products. In case a sufficient amount of price information was not recalled, the consumer established reference price through the external search. Finally, in the purchasing stage, consumers evaluated the determinant alternatives based on their compensatory evaluation. When perception of price was negative, consumers evaluate price combined with the higher criteria of clothing benefits, such as symbolic value and usability. The research is expected to contribute to predicting consumers' responses to price, and to establishing an effective pricing strategy.

An Effect of Orange Import on Domestic Fruits and Vegetables Price in Korea (오렌지 수입이 국내산 과일 및 과채 가격에 미친 영향)

  • Cho, Jae-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.703-713
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    • 2015
  • A Linear Approximated Inverse Almost Ideal Demand System, suggested by Eales and Unnevehr, is estimated with monthly data set of Korean fruits consumption. LA/IAIDS consists of 6 demand equations which correspond to domestically produced Hanrabong, overwintering mandarin, strawberry, melon and tomato with imported orange. The results indicate that price and scale flexibilities are negative, as expected. And the significance is that a 10% increase in imported orange quantity is associated with 5.5% declines in the price of Korean Hanrabong while the price of other fruits is minimally affected. In addition, the estimate of scale flexibility of Hanrabong (-2.96) is much smaller than any other fruit. Hanrabong farmer might be in the face of deficit operation as a consequence of the substitution effect if orange would be imported in accordance with the Korea-U.S. free trade agreement.

Analysis of the Effect of Expected Housing Prices and Liquidity on the Housing Market (유동성과 주택가격의 기대심리가 실질 주택가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Jeon, Hyeonjin;Kwon, Sunhee
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.11
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    • pp.43-49
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze factors affecting the housing market by setting household loans and M2, which are liquidity indicators, and the industrial production index reflecting economic fluctuations, as variables, and to determine the effect of expected housing prices. An empirical analysis was conducted based on the data from January 2005 to May 2020, and the HP filter was applied to the real house price as the expected house price variable. As a result of the analysis, it was found that real household loans, real M2, and so on, had an effect on house prices, and expectations for past house prices and house prices increased the house prices in the present period. These results show that even though the liquidity expansion is aimed at revitalizing the economy, it can affect housing prices as well.

A Study on the Salesperson Services and Repeat Purchase Intention by Price Perception of Fashion Stores (가격지각에 따른 패션점포 판매원 서비스와 재구매의도에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jie-Yurn
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2008
  • The purposes of this study are to examine consumer's perception about salesperson services of fashion stores, and how salesperson services influence on consumer's satisfaction, repeat purchase intention by price perception. The data was obtained from a survey of 420 fashion product consumers in their 20's living in Gwangju city in 2006. It was analyzed by factor analyses, reliability, frequency, T-test, regression. The results of the survey were: 1) Salesperson service dimensions perceived by fashion product consumers were 4 dimensions: Customer service orientation,. Relationship orientation, Reliability & sales ability, Salesperson's appearance. 2) Salesperson services influenced on satisfaction of high price perception group and low price perception group. 3) Satisfaction and salesperson service importance influenced on repeat purchase intention of high price perception group and low price perception group. 4) The difference of salesperson services perceptions by store types were examined. The findings of this study are expected to help fashion stores make successful relationship strategy according to price strategy and keep the relationship with their customers for a long time in fashion retail setting.

The Linkages among Restaurant Image, Food and Beverage Price, Value and Service Quality (레스토랑 이미지, 식음료 가격, 가치와 서비스 품질과의 관계)

  • Kang, Jong-Heon;Ko, Beom-Seok
    • Journal of the East Asian Society of Dietary Life
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.266-273
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    • 2007
  • The purpose of this study was to measure the effects of service quality mediating the linkage among food and beverage price, restaurant image and value. A total of 273 questionnaires were completed. MANOVA, ANOVA and ANCOVA were used to measure the mediating effect of service quality on the relationships among food and beverage price, restaurant image, and value. The effects of food and beverage price and restaurant image on service quality and value were statistically significant. As expected, when food and beverage price and service quality were regressed on the value, the service quality was significant and the effect of the food and beverage price was reduced. Moreover, when restaurant image and service quality were regressed on the value, the restaurant image and service quality had a significant effects on value. The results demonstrated that service quality played a mediating role in the relationship between food and beverage price and value, and between restaurant image and value.

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