• Title/Summary/Keyword: Expected Value

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A Probabilistic Seismic Risk of the Korean Peninsula (한반도의 확률론적 지진위험분포)

  • 김성균;송미정
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.45-58
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    • 1995
  • A probabilistic seismic risk in the Korean Peninsula is calculated from the instrumental eaathquake data. For the purpose, an instrumental earthquake catalogue since 1905 m which parameters are readjusted to have uniformity and homogeneity in description is cornpiled through the review of all available data. The maximum potential earthquake expected in the Korean Peninsula for 100, 1000, and 4000 years are estimated to be 6.3, 7.2 and 7.8 in magnitude, respectively, from Gumbel's extreme value theory. In addition, contour rnaps representing the maximum ground acceleration expected for 100 and 1000 years are prepared using the return period method. Seismic hazart] curves in which maximum ground acceleration expressed in terms of probability of occurrence are also presented for the major populated areas.

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A Case Study of Economic Analysis on R&D Investment (R&B 투자에 대한 경제성 분석의 사례연구 - 초전도 한류기 개발을 중심으로 -)

  • 조현춘;김재천;박상덕
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.159-177
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    • 1998
  • Although each company is trying to develop an economic analysis model with its own particular style or format, the appropriate method is not yet developed because there are many problems to be solved such as uncertainity of outcomes and intangible benefits of technology. The purpose of tris paper therefore is to suggest an economic analysis methodology, which reflects the complexity and the risk of R&D investment, through a case study on the development of a superconductor fault current limiter. A self-developed Monte Carlo simulation program utilized as a main tool in this paper was very useful for risk analysis of R&D investment which could not be solved in the previous DCF(Discounted Cash Flow) model. We also introduce learning effect to consider the intangible benefits such as Know-How obtained from R&D execution. The expected value and its probability distribution for R&D investment can be obtained by combining the Monte Carlo method with the decision tree approach. This result is helpful in judging the priority and the resource-allocation of R&D projects. It is however necessary to develop more precise model for quantifying the technology stock and the simulation program using the continuous probability distribution in expected values to improve the reliability of economic analysis on R&D projects.

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Optimal Placement of Strain Gauge for Vibration Measurement : Formulation and Assessment (진동측정을 위한 스트레인 게이지 설치위치 최적화 : 최적화 방법 및 평가)

  • 최창림;양보석;최병근
    • Transactions of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering
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    • v.14 no.8
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    • pp.757-766
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    • 2004
  • This paper focuses on the formulation and validation of an automatic strategy to select the optimal location and direction of strain gauges for the measurement of the modal response. These locations and directions are important to render the strain measurements as robust as possible when a random mispositioning of the gauges and gauge failures are expected. The approach relies on the evaluation of the signal-to-noise ratios of the gauge measurements from strain data of finite element. The multi-step optimization strategy including genetic algorithm is used to find the strain gauge locations-directions that maximize the smallest modal strain signal-to-noise ratio in the absence of gauge failure or its expected value when gauge failure is possible. A flat Plate is used to prove the applicability of the proposed methodology and to demonstrate the effects of the essential parameters of the problem such as the mispositioning level, the probability of gauge failure, and the number of gauges.

Residual-based Robust CUSUM Control Charts for Autocorrelated Processes (자기상관 공정 적용을 위한 잔차 기반 강건 누적합 관리도)

  • Lee, Hyun-Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.52-61
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    • 2012
  • The design method for cumulative sum (CUSUM) control charts, which can be robust to autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modeling errors, has not been frequently proposed so far. This is because the CUSUM statistic involves a maximum function, which is intractable in mathematical derivations, and thus any modification on the statistic can not be favorably made. We propose residual-based robust CUSUM control charts for monitoring autocorrelated processes. In order to incorporate the effects of ARMA modeling errors into the design method, we modify parameters (reference value and decision interval) of CUSUM control charts using the approximate expected variance of residuals generated in model uncertainty, rather than directly modify the form of the CUSUM statistic. The expected variance of residuals is derived using a second-order Taylor approximation and the general form is represented using the order of ARMA models with the sample size for ARMA modeling. Based on the Monte carlo simulation, we demonstrate that the proposed method can be effectively used for statistical process control (SPC) charts, which are robust to ARMA modeling errors.

The Estimation of Compensation for Revoking a License for Fishery Business and Appropriate Discount Rate (어업권 취소에 대한 손실보상액 추정과 이자율)

  • Jung, Hyung-Chan;Chung, Man-Hwa
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2013
  • We investigate the appropriateness of the fixed 12% discount rate to be used in estimating the amount of compensation for revoking a license for fishery business by the Enforcement Decree of Fisheries Act in Korea. We also suggest the appropriate discount rate fully reflecting the change of market interest rate in the Korean financial market. The capital asset pricing model, or, CAPM is the best known model of risk and return, and is widely used to estimate the expected rate of return for the risky projects. Even though the CAPM implies that the discount rate or the expected rate of return should change as the related market factors do, the discount rate used to estimate compensation for revoking a license for fishery business remains to be the same 12% rate for the last 15 years by law. During this period, however, the yield to maturity for the 5-year government bonds in Korea has dramatically changed from about 12% to less than 3%. In order to provide the fair compensation for the damages against the coastal fisheries and evaluate the intrinsic value of fishery resources in the coastal areas, we suggest that the appropriate discount rate should be determined by the yield to maturity of the government bonds with 5-year maturity, instead of the current fixed 12% interest rate.

Development of a Performance Diagnosis Program for Gas Turbines Using Turbine Inlet Temperature Correction (터빈입구온도 보정기법을 적용한 가스터빈 성능진단 프로그램 개발)

  • Lee, Jae Hong;Kang, Do Won;Kim, Tong Seop
    • The KSFM Journal of Fluid Machinery
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.32-40
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    • 2017
  • In this study, an in-house program to analyze the performance degradation for gas turbines is developed using MATLAB and is validated using commercial software. This program consists of design and off-design calculations. The results of design calculation is used for reference values of off-design calculation. The off-design calculation is composed of measured and expected performance analyses, and turbine inlet temperature correction. In general, performance degradation is analyzed by comparing the results of measured and expected performance analysis. However, if gas turbine performance degrades, turbine inlet temperature might increase due to the general control logic to comply with the power demand. Therefore, it is required to consider the deviation of turbine inlet temperature from the normal value in the performance diagnosis to analyze the performance degradation exactly. In this study, a special effort is given to the correction of turbine inlet temperature. The accuracy of the developed program is confirmed by comparison with commercial software, and its capability of performance diagnosis using the turbine inlet temperature correction is demonstrated.

A New AAL2 Scheduling Algorithm for Mobile Voice and Data Services over ATM

  • Huhnkuk Lim;Dongwook lee;Kim, Kiseon;Kwangsuk Song;Changhwan Oh;Lee, Suwon
    • Proceedings of the IEEK Conference
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    • 2000.07a
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    • pp.229-232
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    • 2000
  • AAL2 has been adopted for bandwidth-efficient trans-mission of low bit tate traffic over ATM networks in ITUT and ATM Forum. Since ATM/AAL2 is expected to be used as a switching technology in third-generation mobile access networks and mobile data traffic is expected to increase rapidly in near future, there must be a need for efficient scheduling scheme satisfying the QoS requirement of ow bit rate voice as well as the one of high bit rate data. In this paper, we propose a new class-scheduling scheme to improve data packet loss probability, while Qos of voice traffic is guaranteed, when data traffic is multiplexed together with mobile voice traffic into a single ATM VCC. The proposed scheme can efficiently support data traffic by assigning a time threshold value to voice traffic. Through simulation study, we show that the proposed scheme does not only achieve better efficiency for providing both mobile voice and data services than HOL class-scheduling scheme and normal FIFO scheme, but also guarantees mean voice packet delay under a certain criteria.

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A Framework for Design and Evaluation of Robot Industry Business Model based on Cloud Services in an Aging Society (고령화 사회에서 클라우드 서비스 기반 로봇산업 비즈니스 모델의 설계 및 평가를 위한 프레임워크)

  • Jeon, Hangoo;Seo, Kwang-Kyu
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.441-446
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    • 2013
  • It is expected to change for convergence robotic services according to emergence new communication technologies and cloud computing, etc. Robot industry is evaluated the biggest filed that is possibility to convergence of new IT technology. This paper presents a design framework for robot industry business model on cloud services through the cloud computing and environment of robot industry, features and provide valuable of cloud-based robot service, analysis of customer needs and value chain in the market in an aging society. In addition, we describe the evolution path of the proposed business model in terms of technology development and market. This study is expected to help that cloud and robot services companies when establishing new service model development and marketing strategy.

A Study on Technology Characteristics of IT Convergence Service and Application Technology for Industrial Convergence (IT 융합서비스 및 활용기술의 기술속성에 관한 연구 : 산업간 융합을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Dong-Kwan;Baek, Dong-Hyun;Jin, Heui-Chae
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2010
  • The IT convergence industry is expected to create some high added-value, yet the IT convergence service is still in its introductory stage, which requires the utilization of yet to be tried future technologies and development methodologies that have been never tried in the past; therefore, there is certain risk involved regarding the success of development during the introduction of service and the development of technology. From such perspective, this study found examples of the services in the IT convergence industries and the application technologies for the realization of those services; and conducted a research based on the examples, using the technical Characteristics classification; and based on the result, analyzed the standards and the peculiarity of technologies employed for the IT convergence service and the correlation and the complementarity between them; also identified the standards and the peculiarity of technologies required by the IT convergence services and analyzed the correlation between them; and finally analyzed the compatibility between the IT convergence services and the applied technologies. The conclusion of this study is expected to be utilized for selecting technologies for the introduction and the operation of the optimal IT convergence service and as a benchmark as well.

A New Operator Extracting Image Patch Based on EPLL

  • Zhang, Jianwei;Jiang, Tao;Zheng, Yuhui;Wang, Jin;Xie, Jiacen
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.590-599
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    • 2018
  • Multivariate finite mixture model is becoming more and more popular in image processing. Performing image denoising from image patches to the whole image has been widely studied and applied. However, there remains a problem that the structure information is always ignored when transforming the patch into the vector form. In this paper, we study the operator which extracts patches from image and then transforms them to the vector form. Then, we find that some pixels which should be continuous in the image patches are discontinuous in the vector. Due to the poor anti-noise and the loss of structure information, we propose a new operator which may keep more information when extracting image patches. We compare the new operator with the old one by performing image denoising in Expected Patch Log Likelihood (EPLL) method, and we obtain better results in both visual effect and the value of PSNR.