• 농업과학연구
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• 제43권3호
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• pp.468-480
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• 2016

As the existing FTAs' implementations are being accelerated, ex-post assessments, such as tariff schedules and agricultural trade analyses results, have been emerging as important national issues for the agricultural sector. Korea-Chile FTA is the first FTA in Korea, and more than ten years have passed since April 2004. It will be necessary to measure the impacts of the agreement on the domestic agricultural industry by analyzing concessions made on traded items of farm products on prices, agricultural trade, and so on. The purpose of this study is to prepare for the request for ex-post assessments on the agricultural sector by trade negotiation procedural law. Additionally, by providing policy direction for agricultural policy segments requiring amendments and supplements through an ex-post assessment, we can more objectively evaluate the conflicting arguments between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. Current evaluation methods about ex-post impact assessment of FTA are generally comparison analysis on the change of trade balance before and after FTA implementation. However, this simple comparison analysis cannot be said to pure FTA effects and objective, tightening economic impact assessment of the FTA because of all combined situations such as effects of exchange rates, international macroeconomic changes, climate change, and the occurrence of pests. This research attempts to use dynamic analysis as its ex-post assessment methodology and is expected to contribute to future policy evaluation.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제17권7호
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• pp.648-655
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• 2016

FTA 이행이 가속화될수록 기 체결된 FTA 대상국별 농산물 양허 내용, 농산물 교역 등을 분석하여 국내 농업에 미치는 영향을 사후 평가하는 것이 중요한 과제로 등장되고 있다. 한 EU FTA는 우리나라가 체결한 거대 FTA 중 하나로, 2016년 7월에 이행 5년 차로 통상절차법에 따라 농업에 대한 사후영향평가에 대한 연구수요를 대비하는 데, 본 연구의 목적이 있다. 또한, 이러한 평가를 통해 수정 및 보완이 필요한 부분에 대한 정책방향이 제시되어야 농업계와 비농업계의 상반된 주장을 보다 객관적으로 평가할 수 있다. 현재 일반적인 기 체결 FTA에 대한 사후 경제적 영향평가는 발효시점을 기준으로 전후를 비교하여 무역수지가 변화하였는가를 평가하는 것이나, 이는 순수한 FTA 효과라 할 수 없으며, 환율, 국제거시지표의 변화, 수출입국의 기상이변 및 병해충 발생 등 수급변화가 모두 혼재한 상황으로 객관적인 기 체결 FTA에 대한 경제적 영향 평가를 할 수 없었다. 그러나 이번 연구로 시도된 동태적 사후영향평가방법으로 한 EU 발효 후 4년간의 전체 농업GDP 누적 감소액은 2,178억 원으로 계측되었다. 가장 큰 영향을 받은 품목은 돼지를 중심으로 축산물이고, 그 다음으로 곡물, 채소 순으로 분석되었다. 또한 이번 연구로 시도된 동태적 사후영향평가방법론으로 향후 진행될 사후정책평가연구에 기여를 할 것으로 기대한다.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2011년도 정기총회 및 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.2182-2191
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• 2011

Postmortem evaluation through the dictionary and the lack of points for the wrong strategy to respond to the avoid the prediction is important. However, the prevailing system of ex post facto assessment of postmortem simply does not have statistical figures to be provided only for the conditions. Thus, in this study, rail business is mainly evaluation procedures and evaluation of the verification system of ex post facto evaluation as to the issue, do not improve.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.77-88
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• 1994

When we conduct environmental impact assessment, main contents consist of summary, project outline, environmental conditions, environmental impacts due to the project, mitigation devices, and alternative measures of harmful impact on environment. In this Paper, to understand how they really conduct air quality impact assessment and prediction and examine their effectiveness, we considered the provisions and actual case of environmental impact assessment in Korea with that in Japan. As a result, we propose a method of improving air quality impact assessment and Prediction, such as reflection of the result in environmental impact assessment, detailed assessment focused on relatively important environmental impact elements, field measurement investigation over four season and seven sucessive days, the uniformity of units, the proper model development to predict environmental concentration and a biennial environmental impact assessment for ex post management.

• 환경정책연구
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.67-96
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• 2012

도심 하천복원사업의 정책적 방향을 도출하기 위한 기초연구로서, 이미 사업이 종료된 청계천 복원사업에 대한 사후 비용편익 항목과 분석방안을 제시하고자 한다. 사후 비용편익 항목을 도출하기 위해 사전 비용편익분석의 비용과 편익항목에 대하여 비판적으로 검토하였다. 검토의견과 예비타당성 표준지침, 비용편익분석 이론 등에 근거하여 사후 비용편익 분석방안을 제시하였다. 그 결과, 비용부문에는 보상비, 갈등조정비, 연구 및 홍보비, 감면받은 유지용수, 물 값 등이 포함되었다. 편익부문에는 환경개선편익 추정시 하천의 자연도 평가를 포함한 다속성 평가기법을 적용하도록 제안하였다. 이와 같은 사후 비용편익 항목과 분석방안이 제시됨으로써 도심 하천복원사업의 효율성이 증대되고, 하천복원의 의미에 더 부합되도록 사업을 평가할 수 있다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제2권4호
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• pp.245-254
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• 1993

This paper attempts to analyze the institutionalization process of Environmental Impact Assessment(EIA) system within the context of Korean environmental policy. The implementation of EIA in the 1980's was not seriously considered by other government agencies and was sometimes degraded as mere formality due to the inherent problems of the system. With viewing the theory and practice of EIA in Korea, this paper argues that it is essential to reinforce ex post facto management incorporate the participation of residents of concerned areas, upgrade the validity of assessment by selecting a credible assessment-agenices and develop the required technologies. Finally, this paper acknowledge the necessity of devising the mechanism to reconcile the conflict between the regional interest and the national interest.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.153-164
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• 1997

This study was conducted to develop the new Environmental Impact Assessment techniques for the grading of rareness in plant. 17 EISs which were submitted in 1996 were analyzed to know the problems in existent EIA techniques for the conservation of rare plants. Category of rare plant was reevaluated and evaluation technique for the grading of rareness in plant was developed. The results obtained from this study were as follows: 1. The evaluation technique of rareness in plant was not reflected in the current preparation provision for EIS. And t his fact also appeared in most of the EIS which were reexamined in this study. 2. The category of rare species which have been considered as the subject of protection in EIA have to be enlarged to more than legally protected species designated by MOE. 3. The taxonomic characteristics and status of species, characteristics of population, geographical characters, extent of threat and its possibility by man resulted from the habitat loss were investigated. Each item was endowed scores from 1 to 5 and all the scores were summed, and then this value was used to evaluate the order of conservation. 4. Conservation measures for the rare plants have to be applied according to the levels of rareness grade, and they are absolute conservation, in situ conservation, transplanting and ex situ conservation, post observation and none by the levels from A to E. 5. Considering the phenology of rare plants, investigation for the rare plants have to be made a1 least three times. 6. Size of the MVP(Minimum Viable Population), pollination ecology also have to be considered for the conservation of rare plants. And in the case of adopting ex situ conservation measure, the site and methods for the conservation of rare plants have to be proposed in detail.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제18권9호
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• pp.377-385
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• 2017

본 연구는 동태적 분석방법을 이용한 경제적 사후영향평가를 통해 기 체결한 14건의 FTA 이행이 국내 농업부문에 미친 영향을 분석하였다. 2015년 기준 전체 농산물 수입액 중 FTA 체결국으로부터의 수입 비중은 82.4%에 달한다. 분석에는 농업부문 세부 품목별 피해액 계측이 용이하고 품목별, 용도별 관세철폐일정을 모형에 반영할 수 있는 장점을 가진 부분균형 모형이면서 농업부문에 국한된 일반균형모형인 한국농촌경제연구원의 KASMO 2015 모형이 사용되었다. 분석 결과, FTA 이행으로 축산업과 과수 산업을 중심으로 농업 생산액이 상당히 감소한 것으로 나타났다. 기존의 선행연구 대부분이 개별 FTA에 대한 사후영향평가에 국한되었으며, 이는 다수의 FTA 이행으로 무역창출과 무역전환 효과, FTA 누적효과 등이 혼재되어 있다는 점을 반영하지 못한다. 이에 본 연구에서는 농업부문에서의 FTA 효과를 보다 객관적이고 종합적으로 평가하였고, 이는 향후 FTA 국내보완대책 수정 보완에 필요한 정책방향을 제시하는데 어느 정도 기여하였다. 물론, FTA 효과에서 국내보완대책과 일반 농정사업의 성과를 분리할 수 있는 보다 정교한 분석이 추가적으로 이루어질 필요가 있다.

• 농촌지도와개발
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.173-189
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• 2022

This study aims to evaluate the location suitability of the Living SOC Project in rural areas. For the assessment of location suitability, we applied location efficiency and location equity, respectively. One hundred sixteen national sports centers in 57 rural areas are selected as the target of analysis. The location efficiency and location equity in each sports center revealed a large gap between facilities. The location suitability evaluation results examined in 57 rural areas were similar to those analyzed at individual facilities. The correlation between the location suitability results and rural characteristics was weak. Also, location efficiency and location equity have a fragile relationship. In the light of these results, the location of the sports center, whose supply has been confirmed in rural areas through the Living SOC project, does not consider regional characteristics actively. In addition, it is difficult to say that the location efficiency and location equity of sports centers have been proactively estimated. Therefore, breaking away from the performance-oriented policy and switching to a lifestyle SOC supply policy based on the pre- and ex-post location evaluation system is necessary.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.533-544
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• 2020

In this paper, we conducted a dynamic ex-post assessment on the grape business cessation support System. Based on the analysis results, in the short term, there was an increase in grape price due to a decrease in production and accompanying increases in the prices of consumption substitution items. However, in the long run, grape prices fell again due to an increase in grape production because of the entry of new grape farmers and the growth of adult grape trees. In addition, the analysis showed that the balloon effect caused by the conversion of crops caused indirect damage such as an increase in the production volume of substitution crops and a decrease in prices. When analyzing the social welfare measurement, the results showed that the support system for business cessation increased the overall social welfare due to an increase in producer welfare because of a price increase in the short term, but in the long term, both producer and consumer welfare decreased. In the end, it is necessary to review the system because the government's intervention may cause market distortion and inefficient resource allocation. Above all, it is necessary to minimize the indirect effect of the industry's contraction and balloon effect due to excessive business cessation. For this, conditional support should be provided in parallel with post management rather than unconditional support. In addition, it is necessary to provide a strategic support system that considers substitution items in addition to those items to be supported.