• Title/Summary/Keyword: Event modeling

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Evaluation on applicability of on/off-line parameter calibration techniques in rainfall-runoff modeling (온·오프라인 매개변수 보정기법에 따른 강우-유출해석 적용성 평가)

  • Lee, Dae Eop;Kim, Yeon Su;Yu, Wan Sik;Lee, Gi Ha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.241-252
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    • 2017
  • This study aims to evaluate applicability of both online and offline parameter calibration techniques on rainfall-runoff modeling using a conceptual lumped hydrologic model. To achieve the goal, the storage function model was selected and then two different automatic calibration techniques: SCE-UA (offline method) and particle filter (online method) were applied to calibrate the optimal parameter sets for 9 rainfall events in the Cheoncheon catchment, upper area of the Yongdam multi-purpose dam. In order to assess reproducibility of hydrographs from the parameter sets of both techniques, the observed discharge of each event was divided into low flow (below average flow) and high flow (over average flow). The results show that the particle filter method, updating the parameters in real-time, provides more stable reproducibility than the SCE-UA method regardless of low and high flow. The optimal parameters estimated by SCE-UA are very sensitive to the selected objective functions used in this study: RMSE and HMLE. In particular, the parameter sets from RMSE and HMLE demonstrate superior goodness-of-fit values for high flow and low flow periods, respectively.

A study on the validation of hydraulic model using lagrangian GPS floater (Lagrangian 전자부자를 이용한 수리모델 검증 방안 연구)

  • Lee, Ho Soo;Lee, Jeong Min;Han, Eun Jin;Kim, Young Do
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.12
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    • pp.1047-1055
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    • 2019
  • Various types of numerical modeling techniques are used to predict the behavior of pollutants under various water environmental conditions in the event of a water pollutant accident. Among them, a hydraulic model that can consider water flow characteristics is the most basic and very important. The process of evaluating whether the hydraulic model accurately predicts the applied river characteristics is very important. In the verification of the modeling result, the measuring data are often used in the river. Currently, ADCP and FlowTrackers are widely used to measure the flow velocity of rivers. However, ADCP is not accurate when the depth is less than 0.6 m and also when the ratio of irreversibility near the surface is more than 40%. Futhermore, FlowTracker has a limitation in measuring at high depth and high velocity due to the direct measurement method in rivers. Simuation results, which are validated by these methods, are not reliable for low depth conditions of low flowrate and high velocity conditions of high flowrate. In this study, Lagrangian GPS floaters which measures physical quantity of water according to particle movement is used without the conventional method measured by Eulerian technique. The verification method of the model results was studied by comparing the simulation results of the hydraulic model with the velocities measured using the GPS floaters. When comparing the traveling distance of the GPS floaters with the traveling distance of the LPT simulations, the average error rate was 13.6% on distances, and the average error rate was 3.2% on velocities except for the stagnant section. Therefore, GPS floaters can be used for a correction and verification method of hydraulic model simulations.

A Water Quality Modeling Study of Chunggye Stream during Combined Sewer OverFlow Period (합류식 하수관거 월류수 유입 기간 동안에 나타나는 청계천 수질 변화 모델 연구)

  • Yi, Hye-Suk;Park, Seok-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.27 no.12
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    • pp.1340-1346
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    • 2005
  • A water quality modeling study was performed for Chunggye stream during combined sewer overflow(CSO) period, utilizing the diagnostic system for water management in small watershed, CREEK-1(Cyber River for Environment and Economy in Korea). This system integrated geogaphic information system, data base, landscape ecological model(FRAGSTATS), watershed model(SWMM), water quality model (WASP5), and computer graphic. In this study, the watershed model and water quality model were extensively utilized so as to simulate water qualities and flow in Chunggye stream during wet periods. The Chunggye stream watershed was divided into 18 sub-basins in the watershed model and the stream reach into 11 segments in the water quality model. The watershed model was validated against field measurements of BOD, TN, TP, and flow at the downstream location, where the model results showed a reasonable agreement with the field measurements at all parameters. From this study, it was shown that the stream water quality would change along with elapsed time from rainfall start as well as rainfall intensity. The model results indicated that the water quality would significantly upgrade due to the first flush and high sewage ratio of CSO at the beginning of rainfall event, but become degraded along with the runoff increase due to dilution effect.

A Study on the Effectiveness of Radar Rainfall by Comparing with Flood Inundation Record Map Using KIMSTORM (Grid-based KIneMatic Wave STOrm Runoff Model) (분포형 강우유출모형 KIMSTORM을 이용한 침수실적자료와의 비교를 통한 레이더강우의 효용성 연구)

  • Ahn, So Ra;Jung, Chung Gil;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.11
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    • pp.925-936
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    • 2015
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of dual-polarization radar rainfall by comapring with the flood inundation record map through KIMSTORM(Grid-based KIneMatic wave STOrm Runoff Model). For Namgang dam ($2,293km^2$) watershed, the Bisl dual-polarization radar data for 3 typhoons (Khanun, Bolaven, Sanba) and 1 heavy rain event in 2012 were prepared. For both 28 ground rainfall data and radar rainfall data, the model was calibrated using observed discharge data at 5 stations with $R^2$, Nash and Sutcliffe Model Efficiency (ME) and Volume Conservation Index (VCI). The calibration results of $R^2$, ME and VCI were 0.85, 0.78 and 1.09 for ground rainfall and 0.85, 0.79, and 1.04 for radar rainfall respectively. The flood inundation record areas (SY and MD/SG district) by typhoon Sanba were compared with the distributed modeling results. The spatial distribution by radar rainfall produced more surface runoff from the watershed and simulated higher stream discharge than the ground rainfall condition in both SY and MD/SG district. In case of MD/SG district, the stream water level by radar rainfall near the flood inundation area showed 0.72 m higher than the water level by ground rainfall.

Analysis of Quaternary Sedimentary Environment based on 3D Geological Modeling for Saban-ri, Haeri-myeon, Gochang (고창군 해리면 사반리 일대 3차원 지질모델링을 활용한 제4기 퇴적환경분석)

  • Shin, Haein;Yu, Jaehyung;Bae, Sungji;Yang, Dongyoon;Han, Min
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.49 no.4
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    • pp.291-299
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    • 2016
  • This study examined stratigraphic research containing extreme climate event during Quaternary period in Saban-ri, Haeri-myeon, Gochang by constructing 3D topographic model and 3D geological model. As a result of 3D topographic model and subsurface geological model, the geology of study area accumulated bedrock, Pleistocene series, and Holocene series chronologically. Most of the study area consist of bedrock on basement and Holocene series on upper layer. Additionally, Pleistocene series are presented as lens-shaped deposit on eastern part, and wedge-shaped deposit on northeastern part. Holocene layers consist of sand and clay-silt layer deposited sequentially where implies fluvial deposits on transgression environment. Distinctively, Pleistocene clayey silt layer and Holocene sand layer on eastern are observed as pond shape deposits that are considered as storm-related deposits originated from overwash system caused by extreme paleoclimate.

Establishment of Inundation Probability DB for Forecasting the Farmland Inundation Risk Using Weather Forecast Data (기상예보 기반 농촌유역 침수 위험도 예보를 위한 침수 확률 DB 구축)

  • Kim, Si-Nae;Jun, Sang-Min;Lee, Hyun-Ji;Hwang, Soon-Ho;Choi, Soon-Kun;Kang, Moon-Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.62 no.4
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    • pp.33-43
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    • 2020
  • In order to reduce damage from farmland inundation caused by recent climate change, it is necessary to predict the risk of farmland inundation accurately. Inundation modeling should be performed by considering multiple time distributions of possible rainfalls, as digital forecasts of Korea Meteorological Administration is provided on a six-hour basis. As building multiple inputs and creating inundation models take a lot of time, it is necessary to shorten the forecast time by building a data base (DB) of farmland inundation probability. Therefore, the objective of this study is to establish a DB of farmland inundation probability in accordance with forecasted rainfalls. In this study, historical data of the digital forecasts was collected and used for time division. Inundation modeling was performed 100 times for each rainfall event. Time disaggregation of forecasted rainfall was performed by applying the Multiplicative Random Cascade (MRC) model, which uses consistency of fractal characteristics to six-hour rainfall data. To analyze the inundation of farmland, the river level was simulated using the Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). The level of farmland was calculated by applying a simulation technique based on the water balance equation. The inundation probability was calculated by extracting the number of inundation occurrences out of the total number of simulations, and the results were stored in the DB of farmland inundation probability. The results of this study can be used to quickly predict the risk of farmland inundation, and to prepare measures to reduce damage from inundation.

Depression as a Mediator of the Relationship Between Resilience and Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms and Dissociation in Firefighters (소방공무원에서 탄력성이 외상후스트레스 증상과 해리에 미치는 영향 : 우울의 매개 효과)

  • Kwon, Tae Hoon;Hyun, So Yeon;Chung, Young Ki;Lim, Ki Young;Noh, Jae Sung;Kang, Dae Ryong;Ha, Gwiyeom;Kim, Nam Hee
    • Korean Journal of Psychosomatic Medicine
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 2016
  • Objectives : This study aimed to investigate the effects of resilience on posttraumatic stress symptoms and dissociation and whether depression mediates the relationships between resilience and posttraumatic stress symptoms and dissociation. Methods : A total of 115 firefighters participated in the study. Data were collected via the Life Events Checklist, Impact of Event Scale-Revised, Dissociative Experience Scale, Beck Depression Inventory, and Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale. Structural equation modeling and path analysis were applied to estimate the relationships between resilience, depression, posttraumatic stress symptoms, and dissociation. Results : Greater resilience was associated with lower posttraumatic stress symptoms and dissociation, and the relationship between them was fully mediated by depression. Conclusions : Specific aspects of depression may help explain the relationships between resilience and posttraumatic stress symptoms and dissociation. Tailored prevention programs and treatments based on resilience and depression may prevent posttraumatic stress symptoms and dissociation in firefighters and improve treatments outcomes among firefighters with posttraumatic stress symptoms and/or dissociation.

Analysis of Changes in Discourse of Major Media on Park Issues - Focusing on Newspaper Articles Published from 1995 to 2019 - (공원 이슈에 대한 주요 언론의 담론변화분석 - 1995년부터 2019년까지 신문 기사를 중심으로 -)

  • Ko, Ha-jung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.46-58
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    • 2021
  • Parks became essential to people after the introduction of modern parks in Korea. Following mayoral elections by popular vote, issues surrounding parks, such as the creation of parks, have arisen and have been publicized by the media, allowing for the formation of discourse. Accordingly, this study conducted a topic analysis by collecting news articles from major media outlets in Korea that addressed issues related to parks since 1995, after the introduction of mayoral elections by popular vote, and analyzed changes over time in the discourse on parks through semantic network analysis. As a result of a Latent Dirichlet allocation topic modeling analysis, the following five topics were classified: urban park expansion (Topic 1), historical and cultural parks (Topic 2), use programs (Topic 3), zoo event (Topic 4), and conflicts in the park creation process (Topic 5). The park-related discourse addressed by the media is as follows. First, the creation process and conflicts regarding the quantitative expansion of parks are treated as the central discourse. Second, the names of parks appear as keywords every time a new park is created, and they are mentioned continuously from then on, thereby playing an important role in the formation of discourse. Third, 'residents' form discourse about the public nature of the park as the principal agent in park-related media. This study has significance in that it examines how parks are interpreted and how discourse is formed and changed by the media. It is expected that discourse on parks will be addressed from various perspectives in further research focusing on other media, such as regional and specialized magazines.

Is Political Polarization Reinforced in the Online World?: Empirical Findings of Comments about News Articles (온라인 공간의 정치 양극화는 심화될 것인가?: 선거 기사 댓글에 대한 경험적 분석)

  • Eom, Ki-Hong;Kim, Dae-Sik
    • Informatization Policy
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.19-35
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this research is to investigate the attributes of the online world and to analyze their influence on democracy. The research focuses on the mayoral by-elections that were held in Seoul and Busan, South Korea, on April 4, 2021. The study demonstrates the characteristics of online spaces and the polarization of the online public through news articles and user comments from the Internet. The research includes topic modeling to measure the diversity of media reports, sentiment analysis to measure online public opinion, and interrupted time series analysis to understand how a particular event influences online attitudes. A combination of these methods is used to attempt to estimate the strength of political polarity in the online environment. The study shows diverse media reports by election region and candidate, where the online public repeatedly reveals high negative and low positive attitudes towards each candidate. Moreover, political polarity can differ based on the level of interest in an election. Although voters pay less attention to a by-election than a presidential election, there is a solid political polarity in the online world. Hence, the research recommends preparing measures to alleviate the polarization as politics requires significant online participation.

A Study on Competency Modeling of Micro Entrepreneurs Recovering From Failure (재도전 소상공인의 역량모델링에 관한 연구)

  • Im, jinhyuk;Park, Seonghee;Kim, JaeHyoung;Chae, yeonhee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to develop the competencies to help micro entrepreneurs who have experienced failure to successfully re-challenge. To this end, relevant literature published from 1977 to 2022 was analyzed, behavioral event interviews (BEI) were conducted with 7 successful micro entrepreneurs, and focus group interviews (FGI) were conducted three times by inviting competency development and HRD experts. Based on these research activities, the draft about competencies for micro entrepreneurs who had have failure was derived. And then inviting 12 experts in related field for Delphi Analysis, the final competency model that helps micro entrepreneurs successfully recover were developed as follows : Competency Groups(small business owners, recovery from failure), 8 detailed competencies(seize business opportunities, business planning, business differentiation, operation management, market exploration, research and development of products and services, positive self-regulation, overcoming and coping with failure experiences), 22 competency factors, and 72 behavioral indicators. This study has an academic significance in that it developed the competencies required for micro entrepreneurs recovering from failure. In addition, the results of this study can be used to develop a competency-based education program for micro entrepreneurs and to select suitable candidates for support programs.