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The Prediction of Purchase Amount of Customers Using Support Vector Regression with Separated Learning Method (Support Vector Regression에서 분리학습을 이용한 고객의 구매액 예측모형)

  • Hong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Eun-Mi
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.213-225
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    • 2010
  • Data mining has empowered the managers who are charge of the tasks in their company to present personalized and differentiated marketing programs to their customers with the rapid growth of information technology. Most studies on customer' response have focused on predicting whether they would respond or not for their marketing promotion as marketing managers have been eager to identify who would respond to their marketing promotion. So many studies utilizing data mining have tried to resolve the binary decision problems such as bankruptcy prediction, network intrusion detection, and fraud detection in credit card usages. The prediction of customer's response has been studied with similar methods mentioned above because the prediction of customer's response is a kind of dichotomous decision problem. In addition, a number of competitive data mining techniques such as neural networks, SVM(support vector machine), decision trees, logit, and genetic algorithms have been applied to the prediction of customer's response for marketing promotion. The marketing managers also have tried to classify their customers with quantitative measures such as recency, frequency, and monetary acquired from their transaction database. The measures mean that their customers came to purchase in recent or old days, how frequent in a period, and how much they spent once. Using segmented customers we proposed an approach that could enable to differentiate customers in the same rating among the segmented customers. Our approach employed support vector regression to forecast the purchase amount of customers for each customer rating. Our study used the sample that included 41,924 customers extracted from DMEF04 Data Set, who purchased at least once in the last two years. We classified customers from first rating to fifth rating based on the purchase amount after giving a marketing promotion. Here, we divided customers into first rating who has a large amount of purchase and fifth rating who are non-respondents for the promotion. Our proposed model forecasted the purchase amount of the customers in the same rating and the marketing managers could make a differentiated and personalized marketing program for each customer even though they were belong to the same rating. In addition, we proposed more efficient learning method by separating the learning samples. We employed two learning methods to compare the performance of proposed learning method with general learning method for SVRs. LMW (Learning Method using Whole data for purchasing customers) is a general learning method for forecasting the purchase amount of customers. And we proposed a method, LMS (Learning Method using Separated data for classification purchasing customers), that makes four different SVR models for each class of customers. To evaluate the performance of models, we calculated MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) for each model to predict the purchase amount of customers. In LMW, the overall performance was 0.670 MAPE and the best performance showed 0.327 MAPE. Generally, the performances of the proposed LMS model were analyzed as more superior compared to the performance of the LMW model. In LMS, we found that the best performance was 0.275 MAPE. The performance of LMS was higher than LMW in each class of customers. After comparing the performance of our proposed method LMS to LMW, our proposed model had more significant performance for forecasting the purchase amount of customers in each class. In addition, our approach will be useful for marketing managers when they need to customers for their promotion. Even if customers were belonging to same class, marketing managers could offer customers a differentiated and personalized marketing promotion.

The Characteristics of Dolmen Culture and Related Patterns during the End Phase in the Gyeongju Region (경주 지역 지석묘 문화의 특징과 종말기의 양상)

  • Lee, Soohong
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.216-233
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    • 2020
  • This study set out to review tomb culture in the Gyeongju region during the Bronze Age, and also examine the patterns of dolmens during their end phase. For these purposes, the study analyzed 18 tomb relics from the Bronze Age and nine from the early Iron Age. Gyeongju belongs to the Geomdan-ri cultural zone. Approximately 120 tombs from the Bronze Age have been excavated in the Gyeongju region. There are fewer tombs than dwellings in the region, which is a general characteristic of the Geomdan-ri cultural zone. Although the number of tombs is small, the detailed structure of the dead body is varied. During the Bronze Age, tombs in the Gyeongju region were characterized by more prolific construction of pit tombs, dolmens with boundaries, and stacked stone altars than were the cases in other areas. There is a great possibility that the pit tombs in the Gyeongju region were influenced by their counterparts in the northeastern parts of North Korea, given the spindle whorl artifacts buried at the Dongsan-ri sites. Dolmens with boundaries and stacked stone altars are usually distributed in the Songguk-ri cultural zone, and it is peculiar that instances of these are found in large numbers in the Gyeongju region as part of the Geomdanri cultural zone. Even in the early Iron Age, the building of dolmens with boundaries and stacked stone altars continued in the Gyeongju region under the influence of the Bronze Age. A new group of people moved into the area, and they crafted ring-rimmed pottery and built wooden coffin tombs. In the early Iron Age, new rituals performed in high places also appeared, and were likely to provide venues for memorial services for heavenly gods in town-center areas. The Hwacheon-ri Mt. 251-1 relic and the Jukdong-ri relic are ruins that exhibit the aspect of rituals performed in high places well. In these rituals performed in high places, a stacked stone altar was built with the same form as the dolmens with boundaries, and a similar rock to the cover stone of a dolmen was used. People continued to build and use dolmens with boundaries and stacked stone altars while sustaining the Bronze Age traditions, even into the early Iron Age, because the authority of dolmens was maintained. Some dolmens with boundaries and stacked stone altars, known as being Bronze Age in origin, would have continued to be used in ritual practices until the early Iron Age. Entering the latter half of the second century B.C., wooden coffin tombs began to propagate. This was the time when the southern provinces, including the Gyeongju region, were included in the East Asian network, with the spread of ironware culture and the arrival of artifacts from central China. Around this time, dolmen culture faded into history with a new era beginning in its place.

Evaluating Global Container Ports' Performance Considering the Port Calls' Attractiveness (기항 매력도를 고려한 세계 컨테이너 항만의 성과 평가)

  • Park, Byungin
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.105-131
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    • 2022
  • Even after the improvement in 2019, UNCTAD's Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI), which evaluates the performance of the global container port market, has limited use. In particular, since the liner shipping connectivity index evaluates the performance based only on the distance of the relationship, the performance index combining the port attractiveness of calling would be more efficient. This study used the modified Huff model, the hub-authority algorithm and the eigenvector centrality of social network analysis, and correlation analysis for 2007, 2017, and 2019 data of Ocean-Commerce, Japan. The findings are as follows: Firstly, the port attractiveness of calling and the overall performance of the port did not always match. However, according to the analysis of the attractiveness of a port calling, Busan remained within the top 10. Still, the attractiveness among other Korean ports improved slowly from the low level during the study period. Secondly, Global container ports are generally specialized for long-term specialized inbound and outbound ports by the route and grow while maintaining professionalism throughout the entire period. The Korean ports continue to change roles from analysis period to period. Lastly, the volume of cargo by period and the extended port connectivity index (EPCI) presented in this study showed a correlation from 0.77 to 0.85. Even though the Atlantic data is excluded from the analysis and the ship's operable capacity is used instead of the port throughput volume, it shows a high correlation. The study result would help evaluate and analyze global ports. According to the study, Korean ports need a long-term strategy to improve performance while maintaining professionalism. In order to maintain and develop the port's desirable role, it is necessary to utilize cooperation and partnerships with the complimentary port and attract shipping companies' services calling to the complementary port. Although this study carried out a complex analysis using a lot of data and methodologies for an extended period, it is necessary to conduct a study covering ports around the world, a long-term panel analysis, and a scientific parameter estimation study of the attractiveness analysis.

A Study on Domestic Applicability for the Korean Cosmic-Ray Soil Moisture Observing System (한국형 코즈믹 레이 토양수분 관측 시스템을 위한 국내 적용성 연구)

  • Jaehwan Jeong;Seongkeun Cho;Seulchan Lee;Kiyoung Kim;Yongjun Lee;Chung Dae Lee;Sinjae Lee;Minha Choi
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.233-246
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    • 2023
  • In terms of understanding the water cycle and efficient water resource management, the importance of soil moisture has been highlighted. However, in Korea, the lack of qualified in-situ soil moisture data results in very limited utility. Even if satellite-based data are applied, the absence of ground reference data makes objective evaluation and correction difficult. The cosmic-ray neutron probe (CRNP) can play a key role in producing data for satellite data calibration. The installation of CRNP is non-invasive, minimizing damage to the soil and vegetation environment, and has the advantage of having a spatial representative for the intermediate scale. These characteristics are advantageous to establish an observation network in Korea which has lots of mountainous areas with dense vegetation. Therefore, this study was conducted to evaluate the applicability of the CRNP soil moisture observatory in Korea as part of the establishment of a Korean cOsmic-ray Soil Moisture Observing System (KOSMOS). The CRNP observation station was installed with the Gunup-ri observation station, considering the ease of securing power and installation sites and the efficient use of other hydro-meteorological factors. In order to evaluate the CRNP soil moisture data, 12 additional in-situ soil moisture sensors were installed, and spatial representativeness was evaluated through a temporal stability analysis. The neutrons generated by CRNP were found to be about 1,087 counts per hour on average, which was lower than that of the Solmacheon observation station, indicating that the Hongcheon observation station has a more humid environment. Soil moisture was estimated through neutron correction and early-stage calibration of the observed neutron data. The CRNP soil moisture data showed a high correlation with r=0.82 and high accuracy with root mean square error=0.02 m3/m3 in validation with in-situ data, even in a short calibration period. It is expected that higher quality soil moisture data production with greater accuracy will be possible after recalibration with the accumulation of annual data reflecting seasonal patterns. These results, together with previous studies that verified the excellence of CRNP soil moisture data, suggest that high-quality soil moisture data can be produced when constructing KOSMOS.

An Empirical Study on the Effects of Seniors' Growth·Fixed Mindset and Entrepreneurial Ability on Entrepreneurial Intentions: Focusing on the Mediating Effects of Entrepreneurship Efficasy (시니어의 성장·고정 마인드셋과 창업역량이 창업의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구: 창업효능감의 매개효과 중심으로)

  • Jae Yul, Lee;Tae Kwan, Ha
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.89-104
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    • 2022
  • Entrepreneurship by seniors who have accumulated skills and expertise in the industrial field is very important from a social point of view. This study aimed at seniors to find out the major start-up capabilities of seniors in an economic situation where instability factors and uncertainties are amplified due to the social structure of jobs that has changed due to COVID-19 during the 4th industrial revolution and the rapidly progressing high interest rates and global supply chain problems. The purpose of this study was to empirically verify how variables affect entrepreneurial intention. In addition, from the perspective of mindset, which is the individual psychological characteristic of pre-entrepreneurs, we tried to empirically verify whether growth mindset and fixed mindset have a significant effect on senior entrepreneurship intention. The psychological characteristics of founders were approached from the perspective of mindset, and an attempt was made to apply them to the field of entrepreneurship and to obtain practical implications. This study empirically analyzed the effects of growth mindset, fixed mindset, technical competency, network competency, and funding competency, which are components of mindset, on senior entrepreneurial intention, and verified the mediating effect of entrepreneurial efficacy. As a result of the empirical analysis, it was verified that growth mindset and technological competency had a positive (+) effect on entrepreneurial intention. In addition, it was verified that the mediating effect of entrepreneurial efficacy was significant in the influence of growth mindset and technological competency on entrepreneurial intention, and it was verified that growth mindset and technological competency are important variables in senior entrepreneurship. The study results provide the following policy implications. In order to activate senior entrepreneurship, first, to maximize the effect of founder education, programs such as customized entrepreneurship education that match the growth mindset characteristics, which are the psychological characteristics of founders, are needed. Second, it is required to expand the base of technology startups by expanding government support, such as expanding low-interest policy financing, for senior startups with technological capabilities and expertise. Third, it is necessary to provide institutional support for starting a business, such as providing a start-up program even before retirement, so that the expertise and technology accumulated by seniors can be linked to start-ups even after retirement.

Some Observations on the Intercellular Junctions between the Hepatocytes in Fasting States as Revealed by Freeze Fracture Replica (기아가 간세포막결합장치에 미치는 영향에 관한 Freeze Fracture Replica법에 의한 관찰)

  • Ahn, Tae-Soon;Shin, Young-Chul
    • Applied Microscopy
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.53-64
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    • 1995
  • This study was designed to investigate the morphological alterations of zonula occludens, macula adherences and gap junctions between the hepatocytes in the fasting conditions. Animals (Sprague Dawley, $250{\sim}280g$) were divided into two groups: normal and fasting. The latter were fasted for eight days prior to sampling. Liver tissues were sectioned and replicated after freeze fracturing for the transmission electron microscopy. In the normal rat liver, the interhepatocellular space at the area of some zonula occludens appeared to be widened in thin sections. On the freeze fracture replicas., the zonula occludens appeared as an anastomosing network of $2{\sim}4$ strands or grooves on P or E faces. Free ends and fragments of the strands were observed. In the rat fasted for eight days, the hepatocytes were diminished in size and the organelles were decreased in number and size. The intercellular space was wide at many areas of zonula occludens in thin section. On the freeze fracture replicas, the zonula occludens showed diminution or disappearence of anastomosing network of strands or grooves. Free ends and small fragments of the strands or grooves were frequently encountered. The macula adherens was markedly increased in number in thin sections, although they could not be found on the freeze fracture replicas. The gap junctions were increased in number in thin sections. Small aggregations of the intramembranous particles appeared with larger ones on the freeze fracture replica. The evidences may suggest the followings: (1) The disassembly of zonula occludens in the fasting states is led from the diminished mechanical stress on the luminal surface of bile canaliculus with the impaired secretion of bile components from the hepatocytes. (2) The increase of macula adherens is necessary to maintain the liver parenchyma integrity in the fasting state which leads the hepatocyte to be diminished and finally the intercellular space to be separated. (3) The rise in both number and size of gap junctions is owing to the need of increasing intercellular communication between the hepatocytes during the fasting. (4) The alteration of zonula occludens is easily led by the physiological condition of hepatocytes even in the normal ones.

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Influence of the Existing Cavern on the Stability of Adjacent Tunnel Excavation by Small-Scale Model Tests (축소모형시험을 통한 공동이 근접터널 굴착에 미치는 영향평가)

  • Jung, Minchul;Hwang, Jungsoon;Kim, Jongseob;Kim, Seungwook;Baek, Seungcheol
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.15 no.12
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    • pp.117-128
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    • 2014
  • Generally, when constructing a tunnel close to existing structures, the tunnel must be built at a constant distance from the structures that is more than width of tunnel to minimize the impact of interference between an existing structures and new tunnel. Spacing of these closed tunnels should be designed considering soil state, size of tunnel and reinforcement method. Particularly when the ground is soft, a care should be taken with the tunnel plans because the closer the tunnel is to the existing structures, the greater the deformation becomes. As methods of reviewing the effect of cavities on the stability of a tunnel, field measurement, numerical analysis and scaled model test can be considered. In the methods, the scaled model test can reproduce the engineering characteristics of a rock in a field condition and the shape of structures using the scale factor even not all conditions cannot be considered. In this study, when construction of a tunnel close to existing structures, the method and considering factors of the scaled model test were studied to predict the actual tunnel behavior in planning stage. Furthermore, model test results were compared with the numerical analysis results for verifying the proposed model test procedure. Also, practical results were derived to verify the stability of a tunnel vis-a-vis cavities through the scaled model test, which assumed spacing distances of 0.25 D, 0.50 D, and 1.00 D between the cavities and tunnel as well as the network state distribution. The spacing distances of 1.0 D is evaluated as the critical distance by the results of model test and numerical analysis.

The Estimation Model of an Origin-Destination Matrix from Traffic Counts Using a Conjugate Gradient Method (Conjugate Gradient 기법을 이용한 관측교통량 기반 기종점 OD행렬 추정 모형 개발)

  • Lee, Heon-Ju;Lee, Seung-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.1 s.72
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    • pp.43-62
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    • 2004
  • Conventionally the estimation method of the origin-destination Matrix has been developed by implementing the expansion of sampled data obtained from roadside interview and household travel survey. In the survey process, the bigger the sample size is, the higher the level of limitation, due to taking time for an error test for a cost and a time. Estimating the O-D matrix from observed traffic count data has been applied as methods of over-coming this limitation, and a gradient model is known as one of the most popular techniques. However, in case of the gradient model, although it may be capable of minimizing the error between the observed and estimated traffic volumes, a prior O-D matrix structure cannot maintained exactly. That is to say, unwanted changes may be occurred. For this reason, this study adopts a conjugate gradient algorithm to take into account two factors: estimation of the O-D matrix from the conjugate gradient algorithm while reflecting the prior O-D matrix structure maintained. This development of the O-D matrix estimation model is to minimize the error between observed and estimated traffic volumes. This study validates the model using the simple network, and then applies it to a large scale network. There are several findings through the tests. First, as the consequence of consistency, it is apparent that the upper level of this model plays a key role by the internal relationship with lower level. Secondly, as the respect of estimation precision, the estimation error is lied within the tolerance interval. Furthermore, the structure of the estimated O-D matrix has not changed too much, and even still has conserved some attributes.

Treatment and Follow-up of Human Papillomavirus Infected Women in a Municipality in Southern Brazil

  • Ruggeri, Joao Batista;Agnolo, Catia Millene Dell;Gravena, Angela Andreia Franca;Demitto, Marcela de Oliveira;Lopes, Tiara Cristina Romeiro;Delatorre, Silvana;Carvalho, Maria Dalva de Barros;Consolaro, Marcia Edilaine Lopes;Pelloso, Sandra Marisa
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.15
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    • pp.6521-6526
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    • 2015
  • Background: This study aimed toanalyze the risk behavior for cervical cancer (CC) and the human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence and resolution among women who received care through the private healthcare network of a municipality in southern Brazil. Materials and Methods: This descriptive and retrospective study was conducted with 25 women aged 20 to 59 years who received care through the private healthcare network and were treated at a specialty clinic in the period from January to December 2012 in a municipality in Northwest Parana, Southern Brazil. Data from medical records with cytological and HPV results were used. Following treatment, these women were followed-up and reassessed after 6 months. Data were statistically analyzed using the t-test and chi-squared test at a 5% significance level. Results: The mean age of the studied women was $27.8{\pm}7.75$ years old, and the majority were married, with paid employment and were non-smokers. The mean age at menarche was $13.0{\pm}0.50$ years old, and the mean age at first intercourse was $17.5{\pm}1.78$ years, with only 8.0% (2) initiating sexual activity at an age ${\leq}15$ years old. The majority had 1 to 2 children (60.0%), while 88.0% reported having had one sexual partner in their lifetime, and all the women were sexually active. A total of 68.0% used a hormonal contraceptive method. All the women had leukorrhea and pain and were infected by a single HPV type. Regarding the lesion grade, 80.0% showed high risk and 20.0% low risk. The most prevalent high-risk HPV strain was 16. Conclusions: These findings provide relevant information on HPV risk factors and infection, as well as the treatment and 6-month follow-up results, in economically and socially advantaged women with no traditional risk factors, corroborating previous reports that different risk factors may be described in different populations. Thus, this study reinforces the fact that even women without the traditional risk factors should undergo HPVmonitoring and assessment to determine the persistence of infection, promoting early diagnosis of the lesions presented and appropriate treatment to thus prevent the occurrence of CC.

An Analysis of the Roles of Experience in Information System Continuance (정보시스템의 지속적 사용에서 경험의 역할에 대한 분석)

  • Lee, Woong-Kyu
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.45-62
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    • 2011
  • The notion of information systems (IS) continuance has recently emerged as one of the most important research issues in the field of IS. A great deal of research has been conducted thus far on the basis of theories adapted from various disciplines including consumer behaviors and social psychology, in addition to theories regarding information technology (IT) acceptance. This previous body of knowledge provides a robust research framework that can already account for the determination of IS continuance; however, this research points to other, thus-far-unelucidated determinant factors such as habit, which were not included in traditional IT acceptance frameworks, and also re-emphasizes the importance of emotion-related constructs such as satisfaction in addition to conscious intention with rational beliefs such as usefulness. Experiences should also be considered one of the most important factors determining the characteristics of information system (IS) continuance and the features distinct from those determining IS acceptance, because more experienced users may have more opportunities for IS use, which would allow them more frequent use than would be available to less experienced or non-experienced users. Interestingly, experience has dual features that may contradictorily influence IS use. On one hand, attitudes predicated on direct experience have been shown to predict behavior better than attitudes from indirect experience or without experience; as more information is available, direct experience may render IS use a more salient behavior, and may also make IS use more accessible via memory. Therefore, experience may serve to intensify the relationship between IS use and conscious intention with evaluations, On the other hand, experience may culminate in the formation of habits: greater experience may also imply more frequent performance of the behavior, which may lead to the formation of habits, Hence, like experience, users' activation of an IS may be more dependent on habit-that is, unconscious automatic use without deliberation regarding the IS-and less dependent on conscious intentions, Furthermore, experiences can provide basic information necessary for satisfaction with the use of a specific IS, thus spurring the formation of both conscious intentions and unconscious habits, Whereas IT adoption Is a one-time decision, IS continuance may be a series of users' decisions and evaluations based on satisfaction with IS use. Moreover. habits also cannot be formed without satisfaction, even when a behavior is carried out repeatedly. Thus, experiences also play a critical role in satisfaction, as satisfaction is the consequence of direct experiences of actual behaviors. In particular, emotional experiences such as enjoyment can become as influential on IS use as are utilitarian experiences such as usefulness; this is especially true in light of the modern increase in membership-based hedonic systems - including online games, web-based social network services (SNS), blogs, and portals-all of which attempt to provide users with self-fulfilling value. Therefore, in order to understand more clearly the role of experiences in IS continuance, analysis must be conducted under a research framework that includes intentions, habits, and satisfaction, as experience may not only have duration-based moderating effects on the relationship between both intention and habit and the activation of IS use, but may also have content-based positive effects on satisfaction. This is consistent with the basic assumptions regarding the determining factors in IS continuance as suggested by Oritz de Guinea and Markus: consciousness, emotion, and habit. The principal objective of this study was to explore and assess the effects of experiences in IS continuance, with special consideration given to conscious intentions and unconscious habits, as well as satisfaction. IN service of this goal, along with a review of the relevant literature regarding the effects of experiences and habit on continuous IS use, this study suggested a research model that represents the roles of experience: its moderating role in the relationships of IS continuance with both conscious intention and unconscious habit, and its antecedent role in the development of satisfaction. For the validation of this research model. Korean university student users of 'Cyworld', one of the most influential social network services in South Korea, were surveyed, and the data were analyzed via partial least square (PLS) analysis to assess the implications of this study. In result most hypotheses in our research model were statistically supported with the exception of one. Although one hypothesis was not supported, the study's findings provide us with some important implications. First the role of experience in IS continuance differs from its role in IS acceptance. Second, the use of IS was explained by the dynamic balance between habit and intention. Third, the importance of satisfaction was confirmed from the perspective of IS continuance with experience.