• Proceedings of the SAREK Conference
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• 2006.06a
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• pp.264-269
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• 2006

Efficient load management on natural gas is strongly required to allow stable and reasonable energy use. The present study investigated domestic and international cases for demand management of natural gas. The directions of load management were discussed. The reasonable evaluation methods of demand management were analyzed and specific evaluation items were suggested.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.13-31
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• 2003

This provided a basic frame to analyze the investment effect on the road, railroad, airport and port as a national dimension but it still has a limitation to analyze the specific economic and financial validities to consider the characteristics of the traffic facilities within the area. Conclusively, the aims of this study provide the reasonable evaluation guidelines effectively to the local automatic groups, especially Chungju in the frame of the present evaluation guidelines. We provide the adaptive alternatives on the present systems which are difficult to adapt to the present investment evaluation guidelines; the estimation method of the social economic index and the estimation method of the traffic demand. Additionally, we discuss the research method of the passage actual state for a reasonable estimation of the traffic demand. The result of this study will be activated for the validity check and construction plan of the reasonable traffic investment plan of Chungju city.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.1-13
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• 2009

Although enormous data have been collected in major cities (Korea) by APTS(Advanced Public Transit Systems), most of studies related to bus schedule management evaluation have confined to headway adherence and on-time performance. Therefore, bus operation management have been very lack of using APTS data. This study uses coefficient of correlation to evaluate bus company's schedule management level. However, direct application of coefficient of correlation has inequitable problem because of many limitation(number of vehicle, headway, etc). and so variable calibration method was developed and applied to cope with these problems. Thus, demand-elastic management evaluation index was developed. For verifying the equity of developed index, it is applied to Seoul bus routes. It is expected for the developed index to contribute into the demand-elastic management of bus schedule.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.41 no.1
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• pp.50-58
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• 2018

Intermittent demand is a demand with a pattern in which zero demands occur frequently and non-zero demands occur sporadically. This type of demand mainly appears in spare parts with very low demand. Croston's method, which is an initiative intermittent demand forecasting method, estimates the average demand by separately estimating the size of non-zero demands and the interval between non-zero demands. Such smoothing type of forecasting methods can be suitable for mid-term or long-term demand forecasting because those provides the same demand forecasts during the forecasting horizon. However, the smoothing type of forecasting methods aims at short-term forecasting, so the estimated average forecast is a factor to decrease accuracy. In this paper, we propose a forecasting method to improve short-term accuracy by improving Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting. The proposed forecasting method estimates both the non-zero demand size and the zero demands' interval separately, as in Croston's method, but the forecast at a future period adjusted by binomial weight according to occurrence probability. This serves to improve the accuracy of short-term forecasts. In this paper, we first prove the unbiasedness of the proposed method as an important attribute in forecasting. The performance of the proposed method is compared with those of five existing forecasting methods via eight evaluation criteria. The simulation results show that the proposed forecasting method is superior to other methods in terms of all evaluation criteria in short-term forecasting regardless of average size and dispersion parameter of demands. However, the larger the average demand size and dispersion are, that is, the closer to continuous demand, the less the performance gap with other forecasting methods.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.45 no.6
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• pp.96-108
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• 2003

Agricultural water occupies the largest portion of total water use in Korea, and generally researches on the development of agricultural water have been stressed on the demand of agricultural water itself. But it is unavoidable to change a policy from the development of water resources to cope with the increase of water demand to the effective management of existing water resources. Evaluation of the decrepitude of irrigation facilities and their reasonable maintenance are important for the effective supply and use of agricultural water. Therefore it is necessary to develop evaluation technique that diagnoses the current condition of irrigation canals and suggest a countermeasure to improve the found problems. 25 items in 6 classes were selected for the evaluation of irrigation canal systems, and the weighted value between the items was calculated using AHP (Analysis Hierarchy Process) method. The current condition of the irrigation facilities was evaluated from the class evaluation marks, and ranking was decided from the total marks between the projects, and finally the priority of the project for the improvement was given.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.101-107
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• 2009

The energy efficiency of existing lighting appliances has continuously been improving due to the government aid such as rebate programs and information of energy saving, etc. However, the usage pattern of lighting appliance at this moment has more been increasing higher illumination and indirect lighting method according that the taste of customers has changed variously. This paper estimates the economic evaluation and simulation for FPL45[W] lamp & ballast instead of FPL55 lamp & ballast in order to study the governmental support to demand side management.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.33 no.11
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• pp.797-803
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• 2011

In this study, we developed the assessment method that evaluate the water demand management and calculate the water saving volume using water use indicator, and developed the system to link the water saving volume that occur through demand management and water supply and demand. The results from this study, local governments with poor water conditions should be followed to improve the water supply. And, future water demand estimates should be even considering it. We calculated the water saving volume of the Geum River basin using K-WEAP (Korea-Water Evaluation And Planning System) and performed the water budget analysis. We found that the change of river flow, ground water level and reservoir water level, and it can be utilized for other demand.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.41-65
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• 2002

We study a multi-component production/inventory system in which individual components are made to meet various demand types. We assume that the demands arrive according to a Poisson process, but there is a fixed probability that a demand requests a particular kit of different components. Each component is produced by a flow line with several stations in which the processing times of each station follow a two-stage Coxian distribution. The production of each component is operated by an independent base-stock policy with blocking. We assume that the time needed to assemble final products follows a general distribution and the capacity of an assembling facility is sufficiently large. The objective of this study is to obtain key performance measures such as the distribution of the number of each orders for each final product and the mean time of fulfilling a customer order. The basic principle of the proposed approximation method is to decompose the original system into a set of subsystems, each subsystem being associated with a flow line. Each subsystem is analyzed in isolation using a Marie's method. An iterative procedure is then used to determine the unknown parameters of each subsystem. Numerical results show that the accuracy of the approximation method is acceptable.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.6
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• pp.39-44
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• 2012

Water supply capacity and operational capability in agricultural reservoirs are expressed differently in the limited storage due to seasonal and local variation of precipitation. Since agricultural water supply and demand basically assumes the uncertainty of hydrological phenomena, it is necessary to improve probabilistic approach for potential risk assessment of water supply capacity in reservoir for enhanced operational storage management. Here, it was introduced the irrigation vulnerability characteristic curves to represent the water supply capacity corresponding to probability distribution of the water demand from the paddy field and water supply in agricultural reservoir. Irrigation vulnerability probability was formulated using reliability analysis method based on water supply and demand probability distribution. The lower duration of irrigation vulnerability probability defined as the time period requiring intensive water management, and it will be considered to assessment tools as a risk mitigated water supply planning in decision making with a limited reservoir storage.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.56 no.2
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• pp.11-23
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• 2014

The impact and adaption on agricultural water resources considering climate change is significant for reservoirs. The change in rainfall patterns and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the uncertainty of agricultural water supply and demand. The quantitative evaluation method of uncertainty based on agricultural water resource management under future climate conditions is a major concern. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the vulnerability management technique for agricultural water supply based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory. The objective of this study was to analyse the uncertainty of water resources under future climate change using probability distribution function of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. The uncertainty of future water resources in agricultural reservoirs was estimated using the time-specific analysis of histograms and probability distributions parameter, for example the location and the scale parameter. According to the uncertainty analysis, the future agricultural water supply and demand in reservoir tends to increase the uncertainty by the low consistency of the results. Thus, it is recommended to prepare a resonable decision making on water supply strategies in terms of using climate change scenarios that reflect different future development conditions.