• Title/Summary/Keyword: Evacuation risk

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Application of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) to the power reactor innovative small module (PRISM)

  • Alrammah, Ibrahim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.9
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    • pp.3324-3335
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    • 2022
  • Several countries show interest in the Generation-IV power reactor innovative small module (PRISM), including: Canada, Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. Generation IV International Forum (GIF) has recommended the utilizing of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in evaluating the safety of Generation-IV reactors. This paper reviews the PSA performed for PRISM using SAPHIRE 7.27 code. This work shows that the core damage frequency (CDF) of PRISM for a single module is estimated by 8.5E-8/year which is lower than the Generation-IV target that is 1E-6 core damage per year. The social risk of PRISM (likelihood of latent cancer fatality) with evacuation is estimated by 9.0E-12/year which is much lower than the basic safety objective (BSO) that is 1E-7/year. The social risk without evacuation is estimated by 1.2E- 11/year which is also much lower than the BSO. For the individual risk (likelihood of prompt fatality), it is concluded that it can be considered negligible with evacuation (1.0E-13/year). Assuming no evacuation, the individual risk is 2.7E-10/year which is again much lower than the BSO. In comparison with other PSAs performed for similar sodium fast reactors (SFRs), it shows that PRISM concept has the lowest CDF.

Implementation of Flood Risk Determination System using CNN Model (CNN 모델을 활용한 홍수 위험도 판별 시스템 구현)

  • Cho, Minwoo;Lee, Taejun;Song, Hyeonock;Jung, Heokyung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2021.10a
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    • pp.335-337
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    • 2021
  • Flood damage is occurring all over the world, and the number of people living in flood-prone areas reached 86 million, a 25% increase compared to 2000. These floods cause enormous damage to life and property, and it is essential to decide on an appropriate evacuation in order to reduce the damage. Evacuation in anticipation of a flood also incurs a lot of cost, and if an evacuation is not performed due to an error in the flood prediction, a greater cost is incurred. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a flood risk determination model using the CNN model to enable evacuation at an appropriate time by using the time series data of precipitation and water level. Through this, it is thought that it can be utilized as an initial study to determine the time of flood evacuation to prevent unnecessary evacuation and to ensure that evacuation can be carried out at an appropriate time.

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A Study on the Evacuation Performance of Evacuation System using Real-time IoT Information (실시간 IoT 정보 활용 피난시스템의 피난성능 연구)

  • Lee, Chul Gyoo;Moon, Sang Ho;Lee, Sang Kyu;Lee, Gye Eun
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.281-291
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    • 2019
  • In order to reflect complex and diverse building types, resident characteristics and disaster factors, it is necessary to introduce a flexible situation-based response system based on real-time information. Intelligent CCTV, hybrid sensor, location scanner, and customized broadcasting device were examined to introduce for the real-time response intelligent response system and its feasibility was verified through field test. In addition, based on the real-time information, the evacuation simulation was executed by assuming the dormitory building and the resident of the school, and the safety of the evacuation and the shortening of the pinnacle time were confirmed. The feasibility of real time information based evacuation comparing with the existing evacuation system were verified in the case of evacuation.

Trends in research and development of Evacuation modelling at Korea and Overseas (국내외 Evacuation modelling 연구 및 개발의 연구 동향)

  • Gu, Ji Won;Oh, Ryun Seok;Choi, Jun Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2022.04a
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    • pp.233-234
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    • 2022
  • In order to minimize casualties in case of a fire in a building, it is necessary to anticipate the time required for evacuation of occupants and the delay in evacuation in advance, and prepare countermeasures for possible occurrences. In fact, various factors that cannot be predicted exist and cannot be considered by excluding them, so the risk is predicted and evaluated through quantitative evacuation modeling. In order to understand this, we analyzed domestic and international evacuation modeling research trends. For about 40 years, starting with the characteristics of human movement, an evacuation modeling technique based on scientific methods has been developed through actual fire accident cases and various real-world experiments with humans. Then, in order to analyze the natural reaction of humans, which has a decisive influence in the recognition and decision-making phase, evacuation modelling studies have been conducted in depth using psychological and physical experimental methods.

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A Study for Optimal Evacuation Simulation by Artificial Intelligence Evacuation Guidance Application (인공지능 피난유도설비 적용에 따른 최적 대피시뮬레이션 연구)

  • Jang, Jae-Soon;Kong, Il-Chean;Rie, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.118-122
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    • 2013
  • For safe evacuation in the fire disaster, the evacuees must find the exit and evacuate quickly. Especially, if the evacuees don't know the location of the exit, they have to depend on the evacuation guidance system. Because the more smoke spread, the less visibility is decreasing, it is difficult to find the way to the exit by the naked eye. For theses reasons, the evacuation guidance system is highly important. However, the evacuation guidance system without change of direction has the risk that introduce to the dangerous area. In the evacuation safety assessment scenario by the evacuation simulation has the same problem. Because the evacuee in the simulation evacuate by the shortest route to the exit, the simulation result is same like the evacuation without the evacuation guidance system. In this study, it was used with MAS (Multi Agent System)-based simulation program including the evacuation guidance system to implement the change of evacuation by fire. Using this method, confidence of evacuation safety assessment can be increase.

Effects of evacuation delay time and fire growth curve on quantitative risk for railway tunnel fire (철도터널 화재 시 피난개시시간지연 및 화재성장곡선이 정량적 위험도에 미치는 영향)

  • Ryu, Ji-Oh;Kim, Hyo-Gyu;Lee, Hoo-Young
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.809-822
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    • 2018
  • A quantitative risk assessment has been introduced to quantitatively evaluate fire risk as a means of performance based fire protection design in the design of railway tunnel disaster prevention facilities. However, there are insufficient studies to examine the effect of various risk factors on the risk. Therefore, in this study, the risk assessment was conducted on the model tunnel in order to examine the effects of the evacuation start time delay and the fire growth curve on the quantitative risk assessment. As a result of the analysis of the scenario, the fatalities occurred mainly when escapes in the same direction as the direction of the fire smoke movement. In addition, after the FED exceeded 0.3, the maximum fatalities occurred within 10 minutes. In the range of relatively low risk, distance between cross passages, evacuation delay time and fire growth curve were found to affect the risk, but they were found to have little effect on the condition that the risk reached the limit. Especially, in this study, it was evaluated that the evacuation delay time reduction, fire intensity and duration reduction effect were not observed when the distance between cross passages was more than 1500 m.

Evacuation Safety Evaluation for Apartment Complexes and Officetel under Floors (공동주택 및 오피스텔 지하층에 대한 피난 안전성 평가)

  • Hyeon-gwon Kang;Yong-Han Jeon
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.67-72
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    • 2023
  • Human and material damage can be reduced if the risk is evaluated by engineering analysis of fire combustion products, smoke concentration, and smoke movement speed in the event of a fire in apartment houses and officetels. In this study, a lot of research on related safety evaluation in the basement needs to be studied and reflected in design, so experimental research was conducted to analyze the flow of smoke through computer simulation and provide analysis data through evacuation safety evaluation. First of all, the five-story underground parking lot subject to simulation has a large floor area, which is advantageous for improving evacuation safety performance, but it uses temperature detectors to increase detection time and fire spread speed. Second, it was analyzed that the evacuation time at all evacuation ports did not exceed the evacuation time, and as the time from the start of evacuation to the evacuation time was 216.9% compared to the travel time, it was evaluated that the safety performance of the evacuation was secured. Third, the above simulation results are a comprehensive safety evaluation based on the non-operation of fire extinguishing facilities in the fire room to increase safety, which means that smoother evacuation safety performance can be secured by linking fire extinguishing facilities.

Establishing the Method of Risk Assessment Analysis for Prevention of Marine Accidents Based on Human Factors: Application to Safe Evacuation System

  • Fukuchi, Nobuyoshi;Shinoda, Takeshi
    • Journal of Ship and Ocean Technology
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.19-33
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    • 2000
  • For the prevention of marine accidents based on human factor, the risk assessment analysis procedure is proposed which consists of (1) the structural analysis of marine accident, (2) the estimation of incidence probability based on the Fault Tree analysis, (3) the prediction of ef-fectiveness to reduced the accident risk by suitable countermeasures in the specified functional system, and (4) the risk assessment by means of minimizing of the total cost expectation and the background risk. As a practical example, the risk assessment analysis for preventing is investigated using the proposed method.

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Risk Evaluation and Analysis on Simulation Model of Fire Evacuation based on CFD - Focusing on Incheon Bus Terminal Station (CFD기반 화재 대피 시뮬레이션 모델을 적용한 위험도 평가 분석 -인천터미널역 역사를 대상으로)

  • Kim, Min Gyu;Joo, Yong Jin;Park, Soo Hong
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.43-55
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    • 2013
  • Recently, the research to visualize and to reproduce evacuation situations such as terrorism, the disaster and fire indoor space has been come into the spotlight and designing a model for interior space and reliable analysis through safety evaluation of the life is required. Therefore, this paper aims to develop simulation model which is able to suggest evacuation route guidance and safety analysis by considering the major risk factor of fire in actual building. First of all, we designed 3D-based fire and evacuation model at a subway station building in Incheon and performed fire risk analysis through thermal parameters on the basis of interior materials supplied by Incheon Transit Corporation. In order to evaluate safety of a life, ASET (Available Safe Egress Time), which is the time for occupants to endure without damage, and RSET (Required Safe Egress Time) are calculated through evacuation simulation by Fire Dynamics Simulator. Finally, we can come to the conclusion that a more realistic safety assessment is carried out through indoor space model based on 3-dimension building information and simulation analysis applied by safety guideline for measurement of fire and evacuation risk.

Proposals on the Input Data Standardization Needs of Fire and Evacuation Simulation in Performance Based Design (성능위주 화재와 피난시뮬레이션 입력데이터의 표준화 필요성에 대한 제안)

  • Jang, Keun Ho
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.18-25
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    • 2016
  • National performance-based design methods and prescribed standards for various input data not defined as separated regulation, ASET and RSET fire and evacuation simulations on the data cited by different designers. This is also directly connected reliability problems for the evacuation simulation and performance-based fire. standardizing the various input to performance-based fire and evacuation simulations of a similar risk, regardless of the experience of designer or technical skills. The performance-based targets proper fire-fighting and emergency equipment installed reasonable initial investment cost to done ensure safety.