• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation Models

Search Result 2,837, Processing Time 0.044 seconds

Development of a TBM Advance Rate Model and Its Field Application Based on Full-Scale Shield TBM Tunneling Tests in 70 MPa of Artificial Rock Mass (70 MPa급 인공암반 내 실대형 쉴드TBM 굴진실험을 통한 굴진율 모델 및 활용방안 제안)

  • Kim, Jungjoo;Kim, Kyoungyul;Ryu, Heehwan;Hwan, Jung Ju;Hong, Sungyun;Jo, Seonah;Bae, Dusan
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
    • /
    • v.6 no.3
    • /
    • pp.305-313
    • /
    • 2020
  • The use of cable tunnels for electric power transmission as well as their construction in difficult conditions such as in subsea terrains and large overburden areas has increased. So, in order to efficiently operate the small diameter shield TBM (Tunnel Boring Machine), the estimation of advance rate and development of a design model is necessary. However, due to limited scope of survey and face mapping, it is very difficult to match the rock mass characteristics and TBM operational data in order to achieve their mutual relationships and to develop an advance rate model. Also, the working mechanism of previously utilized linear cutting machine is slightly different than the real excavation mechanism owing to the penetration of a number of disc cutters taking place at the same time in the rock mass in conjunction with rotation of the cutterhead. So, in order to suggest the advance rate and machine design models for small diameter TBMs, an EPB (Earth Pressure Balance) shield TBM having 3.54 m diameter cutterhead was manufactured and 19 cases of full-scale tunneling tests were performed each in 87.5 ㎥ volume of artificial rock mass. The relationships between advance rate and machine data were effectively analyzed by performing the tests in homogeneous rock mass with 70 MPa uniaxial compressive strength according to the TBM operational parameters such as thrust force and RPM of cutterhead. The utilization of the recorded penetration depth and torque values in the development of models is more accurate and realistic since they were derived through real excavation mechanism. The relationships between normal force on single disc cutter and penetration depth as well as between normal force and rolling force were suggested in this study. The prediction of advance rate and design of TBM can be performed in rock mass having 70 MPa strength using these relationships. An effort was made to improve the application of the developed model by applying the FPI (Field Penetration Index) concept which can overcome the limitation of 100% RQD (Rock Quality Designation) in artificial rock mass.

A Case Study on Forecasting Inbound Calls of Motor Insurance Company Using Interactive Data Mining Technique (대화식 데이터 마이닝 기법을 활용한 자동차 보험사의 인입 콜량 예측 사례)

  • Baek, Woong;Kim, Nam-Gyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.16 no.3
    • /
    • pp.99-120
    • /
    • 2010
  • Due to the wide spread of customers' frequent access of non face-to-face services, there have been many attempts to improve customer satisfaction using huge amounts of data accumulated throughnon face-to-face channels. Usually, a call center is regarded to be one of the most representative non-faced channels. Therefore, it is important that a call center has enough agents to offer high level customer satisfaction. However, managing too many agents would increase the operational costs of a call center by increasing labor costs. Therefore, predicting and calculating the appropriate size of human resources of a call center is one of the most critical success factors of call center management. For this reason, most call centers are currently establishing a department of WFM(Work Force Management) to estimate the appropriate number of agents and to direct much effort to predict the volume of inbound calls. In real world applications, inbound call prediction is usually performed based on the intuition and experience of a domain expert. In other words, a domain expert usually predicts the volume of calls by calculating the average call of some periods and adjusting the average according tohis/her subjective estimation. However, this kind of approach has radical limitations in that the result of prediction might be strongly affected by the expert's personal experience and competence. It is often the case that a domain expert may predict inbound calls quite differently from anotherif the two experts have mutually different opinions on selecting influential variables and priorities among the variables. Moreover, it is almost impossible to logically clarify the process of expert's subjective prediction. Currently, to overcome the limitations of subjective call prediction, most call centers are adopting a WFMS(Workforce Management System) package in which expert's best practices are systemized. With WFMS, a user can predict the volume of calls by calculating the average call of each day of the week, excluding some eventful days. However, WFMS costs too much capital during the early stage of system establishment. Moreover, it is hard to reflect new information ontothe system when some factors affecting the amount of calls have been changed. In this paper, we attempt to devise a new model for predicting inbound calls that is not only based on theoretical background but also easily applicable to real world applications. Our model was mainly developed by the interactive decision tree technique, one of the most popular techniques in data mining. Therefore, we expect that our model can predict inbound calls automatically based on historical data, and it can utilize expert's domain knowledge during the process of tree construction. To analyze the accuracy of our model, we performed intensive experiments on a real case of one of the largest car insurance companies in Korea. In the case study, the prediction accuracy of the devised two models and traditional WFMS are analyzed with respect to the various error rates allowable. The experiments reveal that our data mining-based two models outperform WFMS in terms of predicting the amount of accident calls and fault calls in most experimental situations examined.

Estimation of the Optimum Number of Machines and Equipments for Professional Dairy Farm (낙농 전업농의 기계장치 최적 규모 추정)

  • 유병기;이용범;장진택;이동현;권두중;기광석;성시흥;이대원
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
    • /
    • v.2 no.1
    • /
    • pp.27-39
    • /
    • 1996
  • A survey was conducted for dairy farmer to estimate the optimum number of machine and equipment in 1994. Labor hours, operation costs and operation methods for each dairy processing were investigated and analyzed for the farmers to find the expected numbers of machine and equipment on the basis of the desired farm scale. And also, the estimated models were compared and analyzed with the conventional models which more than half dairy farmers used bucket milker in tie stall barn. Some of the results are as follows : 1. Analysis results of conventional model showed that a dairy farm could raise to 15 heads of dairy cow with family labor of 1.5 men, labor hours of 2, 700 in you and total operation costs of 734 thousand won per head. 2. The result, used in conjunction with minimum operation costs in tie stall barn, showed that 28 dairy cows could be raised by using concentrates feeding by hoppers, water supply by water cups, milking by pipeline milker, and manure cleaning by barn cleaner with total operation costs of 520 thousands won per head. 3. The total operation costs of a loose barn system is higher than those of tie stall barn system to raise about 30 heads. For the loose barn system, the herringbone parlour was used for milking, concentrate feeding by automatic concentrate feeder, water supply by thermal insulation feeder, and manure cleaning by scraper with total operation costs of 582 thousands won per head every year.

  • PDF

Estimation of sediment deposition rate in collapsed reservoirs(wetlands) using empirical formulas and multiple regression models (경험공식 및 다중회귀모형을 이용한 붕괴 저수지(습지) 비퇴사량 추정)

  • Kim, Donghyun;Lee, Haneul;Bae, Younghye;Joo, Hongjun;Kim, Deokhwan;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.287-295
    • /
    • 2021
  • As facilities such as dam reservoir wetlands and agricultural irrigation reservoir wetlands are built, sedimentation occurs over time through erosion, sedimentation transport, and sediment deposition. Sedimentation issues are very important for the maintenance of reservoir wetlands because long-term sedimentation of sediments affects flood and drought control functions. However, research on resignation has been estimated mainly by empirical formulas due to the lack of available data. The purpose of this study was to calculate and compare the sediment deposition rate by developing a multiple regression model along with actual data and empirical formulas. In addition, it was attempted to identify potential causes of collapse by applying it to 64 reservoir wetlands that suffered flood damage due to the long rainy season in 2020 due to reservoir wetland sedimentation and aging. For the target reservoir, 10 locations including the GaGog reservoir located in Miryang city, Gyeongsangnam province in South Korea, where there is actual survey information, were selected. A multiple regression model was developed in consideration of physical and climatic characteristics, and a total of four empirical formulas and sediment deposition rate were calculated. Using this, the error of the sediment deposition rate was compared. As a result of calculating the sediment deposition rate using the multiple regression model, the error was the lowest from 0.21(m3km2/yr) to 2.13(m3km2/yr). Therefore, based on the sediment deposition rate estimated by the multi-regression model, the change in the available capacity of reservoir wetlands was analyzed, and the effective storage capacity was found to have decreased from 0.21(%) to 16.56(%). In addition, the sediment deposition rate of the reservoir where the overflow damage occurred was relatively higher than that of the reservoir where the piping damage occurred. In other words, accumulating sediment deposition rate at the bottom of the reservoir would result in a lack of acceptable effective water capacity and reduced reservoir flood and drought control capabilities, resulting in reservoir collapse damage.

Estimation of ecological flow and fish habitats for Andong Dam downstream reach using 1-D and 2-D physical habitat models (1차원 및 2차원 물리서식처 모형을 활용한 안동댐 하류 하천의 환경생태유량 및 어류서식처 추정)

  • Kim, Yongwon;Lee, Jiwan;Woo, Soyoung;Kim, Soohong;Lee, Jongjin;Kim, Seongjoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.55 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1041-1052
    • /
    • 2022
  • This study is to estimate the optimal ecological flow and analysis the spatial distribution of fish habitat for Andong dam downstream reach (4,565.7 km2) using PHABSIM (Physical Habiat Simulation System) and River2D. To establish habitat models, the cross-section informations and hydraulic input data were collected uisng the Nakdong river basic plan report. The establishment range of PHABSIM was set up about 410.0 m from Gudam streamflow gauging station (GD) and about 6.0 km including GD for River2D. To select representative fish species and construct HSI (Habitat Suitability Index), the fish survey was performed at Pungji bridge where showed well the physical characteristics of target stream located downstream of GD. As a result of the fish survey, Zacco platypus was showed highly relative abundance resulting in selecting as the representative fish species, and HSI was constructed using physical habitat characteristics of the Zacco platypus. The optimal range of HSI was 0.3~0.5 m/s at the velocity suitability index, 0.4~0.6 m at the depth suitability index, and the substrate was sand to fine gravel. As a result of estimating the optimal ecological flow by applying HSI to PHABSIM, the optimal ecological flow for target stream was 20.0 m3/sec. As a result of analysis two-dimensional spatial analysis of fish habitat using River2D, WUA (Weighted Usable Area) was estimated 107,392.0 m2/1000 m under the ecological flow condition and it showed the fish habitat was secured throughout the target stream compared with Q355 condition.

Estimation of Rice Heading Date of Paddy Rice from Slanted and Top-view Images Using Deep Learning Classification Model (딥 러닝 분류 모델을 이용한 직하방과 경사각 영상 기반의 벼 출수기 판별)

  • Hyeok-jin Bak;Wan-Gyu Sang;Sungyul Chang;Dongwon Kwon;Woo-jin Im;Ji-hyeon Lee;Nam-jin Chung;Jung-Il Cho
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.25 no.4
    • /
    • pp.337-345
    • /
    • 2023
  • Estimating the rice heading date is one of the most crucial agricultural tasks related to productivity. However, due to abnormal climates around the world, it is becoming increasingly challenging to estimate the rice heading date. Therefore, a more objective classification method for estimating the rice heading date is needed than the existing methods. This study, we aimed to classify the rice heading stage from various images using a CNN classification model. We collected top-view images taken from a drone and a phenotyping tower, as well as slanted-view images captured with a RGB camera. The collected images underwent preprocessing to prepare them as input data for the CNN model. The CNN architectures employed were ResNet50, InceptionV3, and VGG19, which are commonly used in image classification models. The accuracy of the models all showed an accuracy of 0.98 or higher regardless of each architecture and type of image. We also used Grad-CAM to visually check which features of the image the model looked at and classified. Then verified our model accurately measure the rice heading date in paddy fields. The rice heading date was estimated to be approximately one day apart on average in the four paddy fields. This method suggests that the water head can be estimated automatically and quantitatively when estimating the rice heading date from various paddy field monitoring images.

Factors Influencing the Social and Economic Performance of High-Tech Social Ventures (하이테크 소셜벤처의 사회적·경제적성과에 미치는 영향요인)

  • Kim, Hyeong Min;Kim, Jin Soo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.17 no.1
    • /
    • pp.121-137
    • /
    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to present the necessary success factors and strategies for high-tech social ventures and stakeholders in the related ecosystem by empirically identifying factors that affect their sustainable performance. Based on prior research, the dimensions of three performance factors were presented: core technology competency, core business competency, and social mission orientation. Then, such sub-dimensions such as technology innovation orientation, R&D capability, business model, customer orientation, social network, and social mission pursuit were derived. For empirical analysis, a survey was conducted on domestic high-tech social ventures, and the significance of the hypothesis was tested through PLS-structural equation analysis of the collected 243 valid data. As a result, it was found that the technology innovation orientation was embedded as an abstract organizational and cultural characteristic in the high-tech social venture, which is a research sample, and thus did not significantly affect the dependent variable. In other words, aiming for the latest cutting-edge technology alone cannot affect performance, and it is a result of proving the need for substantial influencing factors that can strengthen it. On the other hand, the business model had a significant effect only on social performance, which is presumed to be the limitation of measurement tools developed for social enterprises, and the results of additional multi-group analysis to determine the cause also supported the basis for this estimation. Excluding the previous two performance factors, R&D competency, customer orientation, social network, and social mission pursuit were all found to have a significant positive (+) effect on social and economic performance. This study laid a foundation for related research by identifying high-tech social ventures emerging in the ecosystem of a social economy and expanded empirical research models related to the performance of existing social enterprises and social ventures. However, in the research method or process, there were limitations such as factor derivation or verification for balance of dual performance, subjective measurement method, and sample representativeness. It is expected that more in-depth follow-up studies will continue by supplementing future limitations and designing improved research models.

Optimal Monetary Policy System for Both Macroeconomics and Financial Stability (거시경제와 금융안정을 종합 고려한 최적 통화정책체계 연구)

  • Joonyoung Hur;Hyoung Seok Oh
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
    • /
    • v.46 no.1
    • /
    • pp.91-129
    • /
    • 2024
  • The Bank of Korea, through a legal amendment in 2011 following the financial crisis, was entrusted with the additional responsibility of financial stability beyond its existing mandate of price stability. Since then, concerns have been raised about the prolonged increase in household debt compared to income conditions, which could constrain consumption and growth and increase the possibility of a crisis in the event of negative economic shocks. The current accumulation of financial imbalances suggests a critical period for the government and central bank to be more vigilant, ensuring it does not impede the stable flow of our financial and economic systems. This study examines the applicability of the Integrated Inflation Targeting (IIT) framework proposed by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) for macro-financial stability in promoting long-term economic stability. Using VAR models, the study reveals a clear increase in risk appetite following interest rate cuts after the financial crisis, leading to a rise in household debt. Additionally, analyzing the central bank's conduct of monetary policy from 2000 to 2021 through DSGE models indicates that the Bank of Korea has operated with a form of IIT, considering both inflation and growth in its policy decisions, with some responsiveness to the increase in household debt. However, the estimation of a high interest rate smoothing coefficient suggests a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments. Furthermore, estimating the optimal interest rate rule to minimize the central bank's loss function reveals that a policy considering inflation, growth, and being mindful of household credit conditions is superior. It suggests that the policy of actively adjusting the benchmark interest rate in response to changes in economic conditions and being attentive to household credit situations when household debt is increasing rapidly compared to income conditions has been analyzed as a desirable policy approach. Based on these findings, we conclude that the integrated inflation targeting framework proposed by the BIS could be considered as an alternative policy system that supports the stable growth of the economy in the medium to long term.

A Study on Web-based Technology Valuation System (웹기반 지능형 기술가치평가 시스템에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Tae-Eung;Jun, Seung-Pyo;Kim, Sang-Gook;Park, Hyun-Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.23 no.1
    • /
    • pp.23-46
    • /
    • 2017
  • Although there have been cases of evaluating the value of specific companies or projects which have centralized on developed countries in North America and Europe from the early 2000s, the system and methodology for estimating the economic value of individual technologies or patents has been activated on and on. Of course, there exist several online systems that qualitatively evaluate the technology's grade or the patent rating of the technology to be evaluated, as in 'KTRS' of the KIBO and 'SMART 3.1' of the Korea Invention Promotion Association. However, a web-based technology valuation system, referred to as 'STAR-Value system' that calculates the quantitative values of the subject technology for various purposes such as business feasibility analysis, investment attraction, tax/litigation, etc., has been officially opened and recently spreading. In this study, we introduce the type of methodology and evaluation model, reference information supporting these theories, and how database associated are utilized, focusing various modules and frameworks embedded in STAR-Value system. In particular, there are six valuation methods, including the discounted cash flow method (DCF), which is a representative one based on the income approach that anticipates future economic income to be valued at present, and the relief-from-royalty method, which calculates the present value of royalties' where we consider the contribution of the subject technology towards the business value created as the royalty rate. We look at how models and related support information (technology life, corporate (business) financial information, discount rate, industrial technology factors, etc.) can be used and linked in a intelligent manner. Based on the classification of information such as International Patent Classification (IPC) or Korea Standard Industry Classification (KSIC) for technology to be evaluated, the STAR-Value system automatically returns meta data such as technology cycle time (TCT), sales growth rate and profitability data of similar company or industry sector, weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indices of industrial technology factors, etc., and apply adjustment factors to them, so that the result of technology value calculation has high reliability and objectivity. Furthermore, if the information on the potential market size of the target technology and the market share of the commercialization subject refers to data-driven information, or if the estimated value range of similar technologies by industry sector is provided from the evaluation cases which are already completed and accumulated in database, the STAR-Value is anticipated that it will enable to present highly accurate value range in real time by intelligently linking various support modules. Including the explanation of the various valuation models and relevant primary variables as presented in this paper, the STAR-Value system intends to utilize more systematically and in a data-driven way by supporting the optimal model selection guideline module, intelligent technology value range reasoning module, and similar company selection based market share prediction module, etc. In addition, the research on the development and intelligence of the web-based STAR-Value system is significant in that it widely spread the web-based system that can be used in the validation and application to practices of the theoretical feasibility of the technology valuation field, and it is expected that it could be utilized in various fields of technology commercialization.

Assessment Study on Educational Programs for the Gifted Students in Mathematics (영재학급에서의 수학영재프로그램 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Hyun;Whang, Woo-Hyung
    • Communications of Mathematical Education
    • /
    • v.24 no.1
    • /
    • pp.235-257
    • /
    • 2010
  • Contemporary belief is that the creative talented can create new knowledge and lead national development, so lots of countries in the world have interest in Gifted Education. As we well know, U.S.A., England, Russia, Germany, Australia, Israel, and Singapore enforce related laws in Gifted Education to offer Gifted Classes, and our government has also created an Improvement Act in January, 2000 and Enforcement Ordinance for Gifted Improvement Act was also announced in April, 2002. Through this initiation Gifted Education can be possible. Enforcement Ordinance was revised in October, 2008. The main purpose of this revision was to expand the opportunity of Gifted Education to students with special education needs. One of these programs is, the opportunity of Gifted Education to be offered to lots of the Gifted by establishing Special Classes at each school. Also, it is important that the quality of Gifted Education should be combined with the expansion of opportunity for the Gifted. Social opinion is that it will be reckless only to expand the opportunity for the Gifted Education, therefore, assessment on the Teaching and Learning Program for the Gifted is indispensible. In this study, 3 middle schools were selected for the Teaching and Learning Programs in mathematics. Each 1st Grade was reviewed and analyzed through comparative tables between Regular and Gifted Education Programs. Also reviewed was the content of what should be taught, and programs were evaluated on assessment standards which were revised and modified from the present teaching and learning programs in mathematics. Below, research issues were set up to assess the formation of content areas and appropriateness for Teaching and Learning Programs for the Gifted in mathematics. A. Is the formation of special class content areas complying with the 7th national curriculum? 1. Which content areas of regular curriculum is applied in this program? 2. Among Enrichment and Selection in Curriculum for the Gifted, which one is applied in this programs? 3. Are the content areas organized and performed properly? B. Are the Programs for the Gifted appropriate? 1. Are the Educational goals of the Programs aligned with that of Gifted Education in mathematics? 2. Does the content of each program reflect characteristics of mathematical Gifted students and express their mathematical talents? 3. Are Teaching and Learning models and methods diverse enough to express their talents? 4. Can the assessment on each program reflect the Learning goals and content, and enhance Gifted students' thinking ability? The conclusions are as follows: First, the best contents to be taught to the mathematical Gifted were found to be the Numeration, Arithmetic, Geometry, Measurement, Probability, Statistics, Letter and Expression. Also, Enrichment area and Selection area within the curriculum for the Gifted were offered in many ways so that their Giftedness could be fully enhanced. Second, the educational goals of Teaching and Learning Programs for the mathematical Gifted students were in accordance with the directions of mathematical education and philosophy. Also, it reflected that their research ability was successful in reaching the educational goals of improving creativity, thinking ability, problem-solving ability, all of which are required in the set curriculum. In order to accomplish the goals, visualization, symbolization, phasing and exploring strategies were used effectively. Many different of lecturing types, cooperative learning, discovery learning were applied to accomplish the Teaching and Learning model goals. For Teaching and Learning activities, various strategies and models were used to express the students' talents. These activities included experiments, exploration, application, estimation, guess, discussion (conjecture and refutation) reconsideration and so on. There were no mention to the students about evaluation and paper exams. While the program activities were being performed, educational goals and assessment methods were reflected, that is, products, performance assessment, and portfolio were mainly used rather than just paper assessment.