• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimation Models

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Assessment of the Angstrom-Prescott Coefficients for Estimation of Solar Radiation in Korea (국내 일사량 추정을 위한 Angstrom-Prescott계수의 평가)

  • Hyun, Shinwoo;Kim, Kwang Soo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.221-232
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    • 2016
  • Models to estimate solar radiation have been used because solar radiation is measured at a smaller number of weather stations than other variables including temperature and rainfall. For example, solar radiation has been estimated using the Angstrom-Prescott (AP) model that depends on two coefficients obtained empirically at a specific site ($AP_{Choi}$) or for a climate zone ($AP_{Frere}$). The objective of this study was to identify the coefficients of the AP model for reliable estimation of solar radiation under a wide range of spatial and temporal conditions. A global optimization was performed for a range of AP coefficients to identify the values of $AP_{max}$ that resulted in the greatest degree of agreement at each of 20 sites for a given month during 30 years. The degree of agreement was assessed using the value of Concordance Correlation Coefficient (CCC). When $AP_{Frere}$ was used to estimate solar radiation, the values of CCC were relatively high for conditions under which crop growth simulation would be performed, e.g., at rural sites during summer. The statistics for $AP_{Frere}$ were greater than those for $AP_{Choi}$ although $AP_{Frere}$ had the smaller statistics than $AP_{max}$ did. The variation of CCC values was small over a wide range of AP coefficients when those statistics were summarized by site. $AP_{Frere}$ was included in each range of AP coefficients that resulted in reasonable accuracy of solar radiation estimates by site, year, and month. These results suggested that $AP_{Frere}$ would be useful to provide estimates of solar radiation as an input to crop models in Korea. Further studies would be merited to examine feasibility of using $AP_{Frere}$ to obtain gridded estimates of solar radiation at a high spatial resolution under a complex terrain in Korea.

Estimation of Uranium Particle Concentration in the Korean Peninsula Caused by North Korea's Uranium Enrichment Facility (북한 우라늄 농축시설로 인한 한반도에서의 공기중 우라늄 입자 농도 예측)

  • Kwak, Sung-Woo;Kang, Han-Byeol;Shin, Jung-Ki;Lee, Junghyun
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.127-133
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    • 2014
  • North Korea's uranium enrichment facility is a matter of international concern. It is of particular alarming to South Korea with regard to the security and safety of the country. This situation requires continuous monitoring of the DPRK and emergency preparedness on the part of the ROK. To assess the detectability of an undeclared uranium enrichment plant in North Korea, uranium concentrations in the air at both a short and a long distance from the enrichment facility were estimated. $UF_6$ source terms were determined by using existing information on North Korean facility and data from the operation experience of enrichment plants from other countries. Using the calculated source terms, two atmospheric dispersion models (Gaussian Plume Model and HYSPLIT models) and meteorological data were used to estimate the uranium particle concentrations from the Yongbyon enrichment facility. A maximum uranium concentration and its location are dependent upon the meteorological conditions and the height of the UF6 release point. This study showed that the maximum uranium concentration around the enrichment facility was about $1.0{\times}10^{-7}g{\cdot}m^{-3}$. The location of the maximum concentration was within about 0.4 km of the facility. It has been assumed that the uranium sample of about a few micrograms (${\mu}g$) could be obtained; and that few micrograms of uranium can be easily measured with current measurement instruments. On the contrary, a uranium concentration at a distance of more than 100 kilometers from the enrichment facility was estimated to be about $1.0{\times}10^{-13}{\sim}1.0{\times}10^{-15}g{\cdot}m^{-3}$, which is less than back-ground level. Therefore, based on the results of our paper, an air sample taken within the vicinity of the Yongbyon enrichment facility could be used to determine as to whether or not North Korea is carrying out an undeclared nuclear program. However, the air samples taken at a longer distance of a few hundred kilometers would prove difficult in detecting a clandestine nuclear activities.

Analyses of the Efficiency in Hospital Management (병원 단위비용 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Ro, Kong-Kyun;Lee, Seon
    • Korea Journal of Hospital Management
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.66-94
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    • 2004
  • The objective of this study is to examine how to maximize the efficiency of hospital management by minimizing the unit cost of hospital operation. For this purpose, this paper proposes to develop a model of the profit maximization based on the cost minimization dictum using the statistical tools of arriving at the maximum likelihood values. The preliminary survey data are collected from the annual statistics and their analyses published by Korea Health Industry Development Institute and Korean Hospital Association. The maximum likelihood value statistical analyses are conducted from the information on the cost (function) of each of 36 hospitals selected by the random stratified sampling method according to the size and location (urban or rural) of hospitals. We believe that, although the size of sample is relatively small, because of the sampling method used and the high response rate, the power of estimation of the results of the statistical analyses of the sample hospitals is acceptable. The conceptual framework of analyses is adopted from the various models of the determinants of hospital costs used by the previous studies. According to this framework, the study postulates that the unit cost of hospital operation is determined by the size, scope of service, technology (production function) as measured by capacity utilization, labor capital ratio and labor input-mix variables, and by exogeneous variables. The variables to represent the above cost determinants are selected by using the step-wise regression so that only the statistically significant variables may be utilized in analyzing how these variables impact on the hospital unit cost. The results of the analyses show that the models of hospital cost determinants adopted are well chosen. The various models analyzed have the (goodness of fit) overall determination (R2) which all turned out to be significant, regardless of the variables put in to represent the cost determinants. Specifically, the size and scope of service, no matter how it is measured, i. e., number of admissions per bed, number of ambulatory visits per bed, adjusted inpatient days and adjusted outpatients, have overall effects of reducing the hospital unit costs as measured by the cost per admission, per inpatient day, or office visit implying the existence of the economy of scale in the hospital operation. Thirdly, the technology used in operating a hospital has turned out to have its ramifications on the hospital unit cost similar to those postulated in the static theory of the firm. For example, the capacity utilization as represented by the inpatient days per employee tuned out to have statistically significant negative impacts on the unit cost of hospital operation, while payroll expenses per inpatient cost has a positive effect. The input-mix of hospital operation, as represented by the ratio of the number of doctor, nurse or medical staff per general employee, supports the known thesis that the specialized manpower costs more than the general employees. The labor/capital ratio as represented by the employees per 100 beds is shown to have a positive effect on the cost as expected. As for the exogeneous variable's impacts on the cost, when this variable is represented by the percent of urban 100 population at the location where the hospital is located, the regression analysis shows that the hospitals located in the urban area have a higher cost than those in the rural area. Finally, the case study of the sample hospitals offers a specific information to hospital administrators about how they share in terms of the cost they are incurring in comparison to other hospitals. For example, if his/her hospital is of small size and located in a city, he/she can compare the various costs of his/her hospital operation with those of other similar hospitals. Therefore, he/she may be able to find the reasons why the cost of his/her hospital operation has a higher or lower cost than other similar hospitals in what factors of the hospital cost determinants.

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Methods for Genetic Parameter Estimations of Carcass Weight, Longissimus Muscle Area and Marbling Score in Korean Cattle (한우의 도체중, 배장근단면적 및 근내지방도의 유전모수 추정방법)

  • Lee, D.H.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.509-516
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    • 2004
  • This study is to investigate the amount of biased estimates for heritability and genetic correlation according to data structure on marbling scores in Korean cattle. Breeding population with 5 generations were simulated by way of selection for carcass weight, Longissimus muscle area and latent values of marbling scores and random mating. Latent variables of marbling scores were categorized into five by the thresholds of 0, I, 2, and 3 SD(DSI) or seven by the thresholds of -2, -1, 0,1I, 2, and 3 SD(DS2). Variance components and genetic pararneters(Heritabilities and Genetic correlations) were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood on multivariate linear mixed animal models and by Gibbs sampling algorithms on multivariate threshold mixed animal models in DS1 and DS2. Simulation was performed for 10 replicates and averages and empirical standard deviation were calculated. Using REML, heritabilitis of marbling score were under-estimated as 0.315 and 0.462 on DS1 and DS2, respectively, with comparison of the pararneter(0.500). Otherwise, using Gibbs sampling in the multivariate threshold animal models, these estimates did not significantly differ to the parameter. Residual correlations of marbling score to other traits were reduced with comparing the parameters when using REML algorithm with assuming linear and normal distribution. This would be due to loss of information and therefore, reduced variation on marbling score. As concluding, genetic variation of marbling would be well defined if liability concepts were adopted on marbling score and implemented threshold mixed model on genetic parameter estimation in Korean cattle.

Application of Predictive Microbiology for Microbiological Shelf Life Estimation of Fresh-cut Salad with Short-term Temperature Abuse (PMP 모델을 활용한 시판 Salad의 Short-term Temperature Abuse 시 미생물학적 유통기한 예측에의 적용성 검토)

  • Lim, Jeong-Ho;Park, Kee-Jea;Jeong, Jin-Woong;Kim, Hyun-Soo;Hwang, Tae-Young
    • Food Science and Preservation
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.633-638
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    • 2012
  • The aim of this study was to investigate the growth of aerobic bacteria in fresh-cut salad during short-term temperature abuse ($4{\sim}30^{\circ}C$temperature for 1, 2, and 3 h) for 72 h and to develop predictive models for the growth of total viable cells (TVC) based on Predictive food microbiology (PFM). The tool that was used, Pathogen Modeling program (PMP 7.0), predicts the growth of Aeromonas hydrophila (broth Culture, aerobic) at pH 5.6, NaCl 2.5%, and sodium nitrite 150 ppm for 72 h. Linear models through linear regression analysis; DMFit program were created based on the results obtained at 5, 10, 20, and $30^{\circ}C$ for 72 h ($r^2$ >0.9). Secondary models for the growth rate and lag time, as a function of storage temperature, were developed using the polynomial model. The initial contamination level of fresh-cut salad was 5.6 log CFU/mL of TVC during 72 h storage, and the growth rate of TVC was shown to be 0.020~1.083 CFU/mL/h ($r^2$ >0.9). Also, the growth tendency of TVC was similar to that of PMP (grow rate: 0.017~0.235 CFU/mL/h; $r^2=0.994{\sim}1.000$). The predicted shelf life with PMP was 24.1~626.5 h, and the estimated shelf life of the fresh-cut salads with short-term temperature abuse was 15.6~31.1 h. The predicted shelf life was more than two times the observed one. This result indicates a 'fail safe' model. It can be taken to a ludicrous extreme by adopting a model that always predicts that a pathogenic microorganism will grow even under conditions so strict as to be actually impossible.

Time Change in Spatial Distributions of Light Interception and Photosynthetic Rate of Paprika Estimated by Ray-tracing Simulation (광 추적 시뮬레이션에 의한 시간 별 파프리카의 수광 및 광합성 속도 분포 예측)

  • Kang, Woo Hyun;Hwang, Inha;Jung, Dae Ho;Kim, Dongpil;Kim, Jaewoo;Kim, Jin Hyun;Park, Kyoung Sub;Son, Jung Eek
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.279-285
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    • 2019
  • To estimate daily canopy photosynthesis, accurate estimation of canopy light interception according to a daily solar position is needed. However, this process needs a lot of cost, time, manpower, and difficulty when measuring manually. Various modeling approaches have been applied so far, but it was difficult to accurately estimate light interception by conventional methods. The objective of this study is to estimate the spatial distributions of light interception and photosynthetic rate of paprika with time by using 3D-scanned plant models and optical simulation. Structural models of greenhouse paprika were constructed with a portable 3D scanner. To investigate the change in canopy light interception by surrounding plants, the 3D paprika models were arranged at $1{\times}1$ and $9{\times}9$ isotropic forms with a distance of 60 cm between plants. The light interception was obtained by optical simulation, and the photosynthetic rate was calculated by a rectangular hyperbola model. The spatial distributions of canopy light interception of the 3D paprika model showed different patterns with solar altitude at 9:00, 12:00, and 15:00. The total canopy light interception decreased with an increase of surrounding plants like an arrangement of $9{\times}9$, and the decreasing rate was lowest at 12:00. The canopy photosynthetic rate showed a similar tendency with the canopy light interception, but its decreasing rate was lower than that of the light interception due to the saturation of photosynthetic rate of upper leaves of the plants. In this study, by using the 3D-scanned plant model and optical simulation, it was possible to analyze the light interception and photosynthesis of plant canopy under various conditions, and it can be an effective way to estimate accurate light interception and photosynthesis of plants.

Assessment of Region Specific Angstrom-Prescott Coefficients on Uncertainties of Crop Yield Estimates using CERES-Rice Model (작물모형 입력자료용 일사량 추정을 위한 지역 특이적 AP 계수 평가)

  • Young Sang, Joh;Jaemin, Jung;Shinwoo, Hyun;Kwang Soo, Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.256-266
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    • 2022
  • Empirical models including the Angstrom-Prescott (AP) model have been used to estimate solar radiation at sites, which would support a wide use of crop models. The objective of this study was to estimate two sets of solar radiation estimates using the AP coefficients derived for climate zone (APFrere) and specific site (APChoi), respectively. The daily solar radiation was estimated at 18 sites in Korea where long-term measurements of solar radiation were available. In the present study, daily solar radiation and sunshine duration were collected for the period from 2012 to 2021. Daily weather data including maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall were also obtained to prepare input data to a process-based crop model, CERES-Rice model included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). It was found that the daily estimates of solar radiation using the climate zone specific coefficient, SFrere, had significantly less error than those using site-specific coefficients SChoi (p<0.05). The cumulative values of SFrere for the period from march to September also had less error at 55% of study sites than those of SChoi. Still, the use of SFrere and SChoi as inputs to the CERES-Rice model resulted in slight differences between the outcomes of crop growth simulations, which had no significant difference between these outputs. These results suggested that the AP coefficients for the temperate climate zone would be preferable for the estimation of solar radiation. This merits further evaluation studies to compare the AP model with other sophisticated approaches such as models based on satellite data.

Estimation of Chlorophyll-a Concentration in Nakdong River Using Machine Learning-Based Satellite Data and Water Quality, Hydrological, and Meteorological Factors (머신러닝 기반 위성영상과 수질·수문·기상 인자를 활용한 낙동강의 Chlorophyll-a 농도 추정)

  • Soryeon Park;Sanghun Son;Jaegu Bae;Doi Lee;Dongju Seo;Jinsoo Kim
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_1
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    • pp.655-667
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    • 2023
  • Algal bloom outbreaks are frequently reported around the world, and serious water pollution problems arise every year in Korea. It is necessary to protect the aquatic ecosystem through continuous management and rapid response. Many studies using satellite images are being conducted to estimate the concentration of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), an indicator of algal bloom occurrence. However, machine learning models have recently been used because it is difficult to accurately calculate Chl-a due to the spectral characteristics and atmospheric correction errors that change depending on the water system. It is necessary to consider the factors affecting algal bloom as well as the satellite spectral index. Therefore, this study constructed a dataset by considering water quality, hydrological and meteorological factors, and sentinel-2 images in combination. Representative ensemble models random forest and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were used to predict the concentration of Chl-a in eight weirs located on the Nakdong river over the past five years. R-squared score (R2), root mean square errors (RMSE), and mean absolute errors (MAE) were used as model evaluation indicators, and it was confirmed that R2 of XGBoost was 0.80, RMSE was 6.612, and MAE was 4.457. Shapley additive expansion analysis showed that water quality factors, suspended solids, biochemical oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, and the band ratio using red edge bands were of high importance in both models. Various input data were confirmed to help improve model performance, and it seems that it can be applied to domestic and international algal bloom detection.

Development of Plant BIM Library according to Object Geometry and Attribute Information Guidelines (객체 형상 및 속성정보 지침에 따른 수목 BIM 라이브러리 개발)

  • Kim, Bok-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.51-63
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    • 2024
  • While the government policy to fully adopt BIM in the construction sector is being implemented, the construction and utilization of landscape BIM models are facing challenges due to problems such as limitations in BIM authoring tools, difficulties in modeling natural materials, and a shortage in BIM content including libraries. In particular, plants, fundamental design elements in the field of landscape architecture, must be included in BIM models, yet they are often omitted during the modeling process, or necessary information is not included, which further compromises the quality of the BIM data. This study aimed to contribute to the construction and utilization of landscape BIM models by developing a plant library that complies with BIM standards and is applicable to the landscape industry. The plant library of trees and shrubs was developed in Revit by modeling 3D shapes and collecting attribute items. The geometric information is simplified to express the unique characteristics of each plant species at LOD200, LOD300, and LOD350 levels. The attribute information includes properties on plant species identification, such as species name, specifications, and quantity estimation, as well as ecological attributes and environmental performance information, totaling 24 items. The names of the files were given so that the hierarchy of an object in the landscape field could be revealed and the object name could classify the plant itself. Its usability was examined by building a landscape BIM model of an apartment complex. The result showed that the plant library facilitated the construction process of the landscape BIM model. It was also confirmed that the library was properly operated in the basic utilization of the BIM model, such as 2D documentation, quantity takeoff, and design review. However, the library lacked ground cover, and had limitations in those variables such as the environmental performance of plants because various databases for some materials have not yet been established. Further efforts are needed to develop BIM modeling tools, techniques, and various databases for natural materials. Moreover, entities and systems responsible for creating, managing, distributing, and disseminating BIM libraries must be established.

Comparison of Labor Inputs from Standard Quantities per Unit and Actual Quantities in Apartment Reinforced Concrete Work (공동주택 골조공사의 표준품셈 노무량과 실투입 노무량 비교)

  • Jeon, Sang-Hoon;Koo, Kyo-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.182-189
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    • 2008
  • In private and public construction works, cost estimation and site productivity management are based on designed labor quantities calculated by the Standard Quantities per Unit (SQU). The designed labor quantities are regarded as the basis for insurance costs and safety and environmental costs and also affect the progress measurement of construction works. Even though the designed labor quantities from the SQU has been considered to be different from actual labor quantities put to construction works, there is no research that empirically analyzes the statistical differences. This study analyzes actual labor quantities of form workers, steel-bar fabricators, concrete pourers in reinforced concrete works of the 43 apartment projects, and compares the actual labor quantities to labor quantities from the SQU. It goes further to scrutinize the critical reasons underlying the differences through a survey on 65 practitioners and interviews with 32 site managers and supervisors. The regression models of labor quantities of the apartment concrete work produced by the present study will contribute to reasonable construction contracts based on the past actual costs and practical site management by the actual labor quantities.