• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimating procedure

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A Study on Development of Korean Failure Rate Databook (한국형 고장률 데이터 북 개발에 대한 연구)

  • Paik, Soonheum;Lim, Jae-hak
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.305-315
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The purpose of this research is to propose procedure and methodology for developing failure rate databook which is suitable for Korean operation environment. Methods: To this end, we investigate failure databooks used in foreign countries and study the procedure and methodology for collecting failure data, organizing the data, estimating failure rate and summarizing results. Results: We develop the procedure of development of failure databook, the items for data collection, database schema of part details and part summary and contents of failure databook by considering the application environment in Korea. Conclusion: The results of our research could be utilized for the development of Korean failure rate databook and research of reliability prediction model and could ultimately contribute to improve the accuracy of reliability prediction.

A Standard Section-Based Approximate Cost Estimating Model on Tunnel (II) - Cost Variance Index Table and Test - (표준단면을 이용한 터널 공사비 예측모델 개발 (II) - 공사비 변동 모델 및 검증 -)

  • Cho, Jeongyeon;Kim, Sang-Kwi;Kim, Kyoungmin;Kim, Kyong Ju
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.5D
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    • pp.677-684
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    • 2008
  • The paper provides an approximate cost estimating model that can be used for tunnel. Based on the previous study analyzed critical factors that have impact on tunnel construction cost, this paper establishes a cost variance index table that reflects the cost impacts due to the change of the critical cost factors. An estimating procedure is described utilizing the index table. For the verification of the suggested model, the comparison of the estimated construction cost with real project cost is performed. The estimated results range from 95%~111% of the real project costs. As an approximate tunnel cost estimating model, the model can be utilized to quickly estimate tunnel construction costs based on the conceptual information at the planning stage and to efficiently make a decision on design alternatives.

A Study on Synthetic OD Estimation Model based on Partial Traffic Volumes and User-Equilibrium Information

  • Cho, Seong-Kil
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.180-183
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    • 2008
  • This research addresses the problem of estimating Origin-Destination (O-D) trip matrices from link volume counts, a set of unobserved link volumes and information of user equilibrium flows in transportation networks. A heuristic algorithm for estimating unobserved link flows is derived, which provides volume estimates that are approximately consistent with both observed flows and an assumption of user equilibrium conditions. These estimated link volumes improve the constraints associated with the synthetic OD estimation model, providing improved solution search procedure. Model performance is tracked in terms of the root mean square errors (RMSE) in predicted travel demands, and where appropriate, predicted linked volumes. These results indicate that the new model substantially outperforms existing approaches to estimating user-equilibrium based synthetic O-D matrices.

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Estimating quantiles of extreme wind speed using generalized extreme value distribution fitted based on the order statistics

  • Liu, Y.X.;Hong, H.P.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.469-482
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    • 2022
  • The generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is frequently used to fit the block maximum of environmental parameters such as the annual maximum wind speed. There are several methods for estimating the parameters of the GEV distribution, including the least-squares method (LSM). However, the application of the LSM with the expected order statistics has not been reported. This study fills this gap by proposing a fitting method based on the expected order statistics. The study also proposes a plotting position to approximate the expected order statistics; the proposed plotting position depends on the distribution shape parameter. The use of this approximation for distribution fitting is carried out. Simulation analysis results indicate that the developed fitting procedure based on the expected order statistics or its approximation for GEVD is effective for estimating the distribution parameters and quantiles. The values of the probability plotting correlation coefficient that may be used to test the distributional hypothesis are calculated and presented. The developed fitting method is applied to extreme thunderstorm and non-thunderstorm winds for several major cities in Canada. Also, the implication of using the GEVD and Gumbel distribution to model the extreme wind speed on the structural reliability is presented and elaborated.

A PROCEDURE FOR GENERATING IN-CABINET RESPONSE SPECTRA BASED ON STATE-SPACE MODEL IDENTIFICATION BY IMPACT TESTING

  • Cho, Sung-Gook;Cui, Jintao;Kim, Doo-Kie
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.573-582
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    • 2011
  • The in-cabinet response spectrum is used to define the input motion in the seismic qualification of instruments and devices mounted inside an electrical cabinet. This paper presents a procedure for generating the in-cabinet response spectrum for electrical equipment based on in-situ testing by an impact hammer. The proposed procedure includes an algorithm to build the relationship between the impact forces and the measured acceleration responses of cabinet structures by estimating the state-space model. This model is used to predict seismic responses to the equivalent earthquake forces. Three types of structural model are analyzed for numerical verification of the proposed method. A comparison of predicted and simulated response spectra shows good convergence, demonstrating the potential of the proposed method to predict the response spectra for real cabinet structures using vibration tests. The presented procedure eliminates the uncertainty associated with constructing an analytical model of the electrical cabinet, which has complex mass distribution and stiffness.

Evaluation of seismic collapse capacity of regular RC frames using nonlinear static procedure

  • Jalilkhani, Maysam;Manafpour, Ali Reza
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.68 no.6
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    • pp.647-660
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    • 2018
  • The Incremental Dynamic Analysis (IDA) procedure is currently known as a robust tool for estimation of seismic collapse capacity. However, the procedure is time-consuming and requires significant computational efforts. Recently some simplified methods have been developed for rapid estimation of seismic collapse capacity using pushover analysis. However, a comparative review and assessment of these methods is necessary to point out their relative advantages and shortcomings, and to pave the way for their practical use. In this paper, four simplified pushover analysis-based methods are selected and applied on four regular RC intermediate moment-resisting frames with 3, 6, 9 and 12 stories. The accuracy and performance of the different simplified methods in estimating the median seismic collapse capacity are evaluated through comparisons with the results obtained from IDAs. The results show that reliable estimations of the summarized 50% fractile IDA curve are produced using SPO2IDA and MPA-based IDA methods; however, the accuracy of the results for 16% and 84% fractiles is relatively low. The method proposed by Shafei et al. appears to be the most simple and straightforward method which gives rise to good estimates of the median sidesway collapse capacity with minimum computational efforts.

Evaluation of the Residual Stress of Thin Film Based on the Nanoindentation and Finite Element Analysis. (유한요소해석과 나노인덴테이션을 활용한 박막의 잔류응력 평가)

  • 황병원;김영석;박준원
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Technology of Plasticity Conference
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    • 2003.10a
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    • pp.355-358
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    • 2003
  • To estimate the residual stresses in the thin film and surface coatings, combined method based on nanoindentation and finite element (FE) analysis was developed. A simple equation for estimating the residual stress was composed of the hardness and the parameters which can be driven from the nanoindentation loading and unloading behaviors. FE analysis on the nanoindentation procedure under the various residual stress levels was performed to determine the parameters that included in the equation. The equation showed a good coincidence between the estimated residual stresses and those for the FE analysis. Thus the proposed method was considered as a useful method for estimating the residual stresses in the thin film without stress free specimen.

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Estimating 3-D surface geometrical features on the basis of surface curvature consistency

  • Zha, H.B.;Muramatsu, S.;Nagata, T.
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1993.10b
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    • pp.54-59
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    • 1993
  • This paper presents a method of estimating 3-D surface geometrical features that are necessary for 3-D object recognition and image interpretation. The features, such as surface needle maps and curvatures, are computed from range or intensity images. In general, the range and intensity images are prone to noises, and hence the features computed by differentiation calculi on such a noisy image are hardly applicable to industrial recognition tasks. In our approach, we try to obtain a more accurate estimate of the features by using a least-squares minimization procedure subject to local curvature consistency constraints. The algorithm is robust with respect to noises and is completely independent of the viewpoint at which the image is taken. The performance of the ajgoritlim is evaluated using both synthetic data and real intensity images.

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An Energy Demand Forecasting Model for the Residential and Commercial Sector (민수부문의 에너지원별 수요예측모형)

  • 유병우
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 1983
  • This paper presents a generalized fuel choice model in which restrictive constraints on cross-price coefficients as Baughman-Joskow-FEA Logit Model need not be imposed, but all demand elasticities are uniquely determined. The model is applied to estimating aggregate energy demand and fuel choices for the residential and commercial sector. The structural equations are estimated by a generalized least squares procedure using national-level EPB, KDI, BK, KRIS, MOER data for 1965 and 1980, and other related reports. The econometric results support the argument that “third-price” and “fourth-price” coefficients should not be constrained in estimating relative market share models. Furthermore, by using this fuel choice model, it has forecasted energy demands by fuel sources in, the residential and commercial sector until 1991. The results are turned out good estimates to compare with existing demands forecasted from other institutes.

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Reliability Analysis of Degradation Data for LEDs (LED 열화데이터의 신뢰성 분석)

  • Park, Chang-Kyu
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.59-69
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    • 2009
  • LEDs have rapidly replaced old light devices such as incandescent or fluorescent lamps, and have been widely applied in general lighting, signals, automobile, signs and others. Since LEDs are for both indoor and outdoor use, temperature and humidity inevitably affect its reliability. We explain the result of the degradation life test on LEDs, and guide to reliability analysis procedure. Analysis on reliability measures are performed by Weibull++6 program, and a common shape parameter of Weibull distribution on the LED is suggested. Also, we make a description of reliability analysis procedures for the degradation data using collected test data from degradation tests. Reliability analysis procedures are consisted of estimating degradation models and failure time, verifying of distribution and parameters of the distribution, and estimating of reliability measures. Finally, this paper suggests reliability analysis method for light characteristics on LEDs.

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