• Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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• v.30 no.4
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• pp.419-428
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• 2021

In order to develope a mobile-based greenhouse energy calculation program, firstly, the overall thermal transmittance of 10 types of major covers and 16 types of insulation materials were measured. In addition, to estimate the overall thermal transmittance when the cover and insulation materials were installed in double or triple layers, 24 combinations of double installations and 59 combinations of triple installations were measured using the hotbox. Also, the overall thermal transmittance value for a single material and the thermal resistance value were used to calculate the overall thermal transmittance value at the time of multi-layer installation of covering and insulating materials, and the linear regression equation was derived to correct the error with the measured values. As a result of developing the model for estimating thermal transmittance when installing multiple layers of coverings and insulating materials based on the value of overall thermal transmittance of a single-material, the model evaluation index was 0.90 (good when it is 0.5 or more), indicating that the estimated value was very close to the actual value. In addition, as a result of the on-site test, it was evaluated that the estimated heat saving rate was smaller than the actual value with a relative error of 2%. Based on these results, a mobile-based greenhouse energy calculation program was developed that was implemented as an HTML5 standard web-based mobile web application and was designed to work with various mobile device and PC browsers with N-Screen support. It had functions to provides the overall thermal transmittance(heating load coefficient) for each combination of greenhouse coverings and thermal insulation materials and to evaluate the energy consumption during a specific period of the target greenhouse. It was estimated that an energy-saving greenhouse design would be possible with the optimal selection of coverings and insulation materials according to the region and shape of the greenhouse.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.112 no.1
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• pp.71-82
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• 2023

Forest biomass is used as a representative indicator of forest size, maturity, and productivity. Therefore, quantitative evaluation is important for management and harvest as well as the evaluation of ecosystem functions and services including CO₂ absorption. The allometric equation is a widely used method for estimating the value of each component through the relative growth rate of plants. Recently, studies indicated that the relative growth of trees is changing because of the increased CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere and the resulting climate change, raising the need to review the previously developed relative growth models and coefficients. In this study, the height-diameter at breast height (DBH) relationships of four major tree species in Korea [(Pinus densiflora (PD), Larix kaempferi (LK), Quercus variabilis (QV), and Quercus mongolica (QM)] were analyzed using the 5th-7th National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Furthermore, these results were compared with the present yield table from the National Institute for Forest Science. This analysis revealed that the expected height for the same DBH increased as the NFI progressed. For example, in model analysis, the expected heights for PD, LK, QV, and QM for DBH of 25 cm were 12.48, 19.17, 14.47, and 13.19 m, respectively, in the 5th NFI data. In the 7th NFI data, these values were estimated as 13.61 (+9.1%), 21.58 (+12.7%), 15.76 (+8.9%), and 13.93 m (+5.6%), respectively. These results indicate that the major tree species in South Korean forests currently are more vigorous in height growth than in diameter growth when compared to the height-DBH development trends by tree species identified through past survey data.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.107-122
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• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.