• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.109-113
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• 2007

This paper introduces a system, Simulation based Stochastic Markup Estimation System (S2ME), for estimating optimum markup for a project. The system was designed and implemented to better represent the real world system involved in construction bidding. The findings obtained from the analysis of existing assumptions used in the previous quantitative markup estimation methods were incorporated to improve the accuracy and predictability of the S2ME. The existing methods has four categories of assumption as follows; (1) The number of competitors and who is the competitors are known, (2) A typical competitor, who is fictitious, is assumed for easy computation, (3) the ratio of bid price against cost estimate (B/C) is assumed to follow normal distribution, (4) The deterministic output obtained from the probabilistic equation of existing models is assumed to be acceptable. However, these assumptions compromise the accuracy of prediction. In practice, the bidding patterns of the bidders are randomized in competitive bidding. To complement the lack of accuracy contributed by these assumptions, bidding project was randomly selected from the pool of bidding database in the simulation experiment. The probability to win the bid in the competitive bidding was computed using the profile of the competitors appeared in the selected bidding project record. The expected profit and probability to win the bid was calculated by selecting a bidding record randomly in an iteration of the simulation experiment under the assumption that the bidding pattern retained in historical bidding DB manifest revival. The existing computation, which is handled by means of deterministic procedure, were converted into stochastic model using simulation modeling and analysis technique as follows; (1) estimating the probability distribution functions of competitors' B/C which were obtained from historical bidding DB, (2) analyzing the sensitivity against the increment of markup using normal distribution and actual probability distribution estimated by distribution fitting, (3) estimating the maximum expected profit and optimum markup range. In the case study, the best fitted probability distribution function was estimated using the historical bidding DB retaining the competitors' bidding behavior so that the reliability was improved by estimating the output obtained from simulation experiment.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2001.06c
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• pp.327-332
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• 2001

An experimental design technique is developed for estimating the moments of system response functions. It is easy to implement and provides accurate results compared with other traditional methods. It is based on the work of Taguchi, later improved by D'Errico and Zaino. The existing experimental techniques, however, is applicable only for normally distributed cases. In this article the three-level Taguchi method is extended to obtain optimum choice for levels and weights to handle nonnormal distributions. A systematic procedure for reliability analysis is then proposed by using the Pearson system and the narrow system reliability bounds. Illustrative examples including a tolerance optimization problem are shown very accurate comparing with those by Monte-Carlo simulations and the first-order reliability method.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.863-869
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• 2007

An improved method based on a normal frequency response function (FRF) is proposed to identify structural parameters such as mass, stiffness and damping matrices directly from the FRFs of a linear mechanical system. The method for estimating structural parameters directly from the measured FRFs of a structure is presented. This paper demonstrates that the characteristic matrices are extracted more accurately by using a weighted equation and eliminating the matrix inverse operation. The method is verified for a four degree-of-freedom lumped parameter system and an eight degree-of-freedom finite element beam. Experimental verification is also performed for a free-free steel beam whose size and physical properties are the same as those of the finite element beam. The results show that the structural parameters, especially the damping matrix, can be estimated more accurately by the proposed method.

• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 1999.11a
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• pp.117-121
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• 1999

Relations between GMS-5 infrared brightness temperature with SSM/I retrieved rain rate are determined by a probability matching method similar to Atlas et al. and Crosson et al. For this study, coincident data sets of the GMS-5 infrared measurements and SSM/I data during two summer seasons of 1997 and 1998 are constructed. The cumulative density functions (CDFs) of infrared brightness temperature and rain rate are matched at pairs of two variables which give the same percentile contribution. The method was applied for estimating rain rate on 31 July 1998, examining heavy rainfall estimation of a flash flood event over Mt. Jiri. Results were compared with surface gauge observations run by Korean Meteorological Administration. It was noted that the method produced reasonably good quality of rain estimate, however, there was large area giving false rain due to the anvil type clouds surrounding deep convective clouds. Extensive validation against surface rain observation is currently under investigation.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.1245-1253
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• 2010

There are two main approaches for estimating the discontinuous regression function nonparametrically. One is the direct approach, the other is the indirect approach. The major goal of the two approaches are different. The direct approach focuses on the overall good estimation of the regression function itself, whereas the indirect approach focuses on the good estimation of jump locations. Apparently, the two approaches are quite different in nature. Gijbels et al. (2007) argue that the comparison of two approaches does not make much sense and that it is even difficult to choose an appropriate criterion for comparisons. However, it is obvious that the indirect approach also has the regression curve estimate as the subsidiary result. Therefore it is necessary to verify the appropriateness of the indirect approach as the estimator of the discontinuous regression function itself. Park (2009a) compared the performance of two approaches through a simulation study. In this paper, we consider a more general case and draw some useful conclusions.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.19-36
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• 2010

The load and resistance factors are generally obtained using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), in which the design point should be determined and derivative-based iterations have to be used. In this paper, a simple method for estimating the load and resistance factors using the first four moments of the basic random variables is proposed and a simple formula for the target mean resistance is also proposed to avoid iteration computation. Unlike the currently used method, the load and resistance factors can be determined using the proposed method even when the probability density functions (PDFs) of the basic random variables are not available. Moreover, the proposed method does not need either the iterative computation of derivatives or any design points. Thus, the present method provides a more convenient and effective way to estimate the load and resistance factors in practical engineering. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed fourth moment method for determining the load and resistance factors.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.387-412
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• 2001

This paper is to empirically test scope effects proposed to judge the internal consistency of contingent valuation method. The application was illustrated for the case of estimating people's WTP for improving water quality at Man Kyoung River in the Chon Buk area. The CV survey was carefully designed and implemented by carrying out recommendations from the NOAA Blue Ribbon panel. Using a split sample, we conducted the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test with the frequency distribution of no responses, calculated the Turnbull low bound mean for WTP, and measured the mean WTP from estimated variation functions. The test results consistently exhibited that the CV estimates of WTP were adequately responsive to the size of water quality changes being offered. The mean WTP for improving water quality suitable for swimming (5,171 and 5,212 won) was significantly larger than that for agricultural use and fishing activity (3,280 and 3,136 won).

• Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.45 no.4
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• pp.763-780
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• 2008

An Ostrowski type inequality is developed for estimating the deviation of the integral mean of an absolutely continuous function, and the linear combination of its values at k + 1 partition points, on a segment of (real) linear spaces. Several particular cases are provided which recapture some earlier results, along with the results for trapezoidal type inequalities and the classical Ostrowski inequality. Some inequalities are obtained by applying these results for semi-inner products; and some of these inequalities are proven to be sharp.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2001.07b
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• pp.930-932
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• 2001

This paper is proposed the modeling and computational methods for estimating the steady and dynamic characteristics of a transverse flux type SRM. Prediction of the steady and dynamic characteristics state of a switched reluctance motor (SRM) drive can be quite involved because of complex interdependent influences between motor parameters and excitation. To obtain characteristics parameters of the transverse flux type SRM which is considered the magnetic non-linearity phenomena, the magnetic equivalent parameters of SRM are computed by the finite element method as functions of the input current and angular displacement. Dynamic characteristics of the designed transverse flux type SRM is simulated and estimated by Matlab/simlunk.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.83-91
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• 2011

This paper discusses models for estimating dynamic travel times based on probability theory. The dynamic travel time models proposed in the paper are formulated assuming that the travel time of a vehicle depends on the distribution of the traffic stream condition with respect to the location along a road when the subject vehicle enters the starting point of a travel distance or with respect to the time at the starting point of a travel distance. The models also assume that the dynamic traffic flow can be represented as an exponential distribution function among other types of probability density functions.