• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimating

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A STUDY ON THE TECHNIQUES OF ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF FAILURE

  • Lee, Yong-Kyun;Hwang, Dae-Sik
    • Journal of the Chungcheong Mathematical Society
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.573-583
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we introduce the techniques of estimating the probability of failure in reliability analysis. The basic idea of each technique is explained and drawbacks of these techniques are examined.

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On Estimating the Zero Class from a Truncated Poisson Sample

  • Park, C. J.
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.89-94
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    • 1978
  • A procedure for estimating the zero class for a truncated Poisson sample is developed. Asymptotic normality of the estimator is established and a confidence interval for the missing zero class is obtained. This procedure is compared with the method obtained by Dahiya and Gross. Applications are given to illustrate the results obtained.

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Generalized kernel estimating equation for panel estimation of small area unemployment rates (소지역 실업률의 패널추정을 위한 일반화커널추정방정식)

  • Shim, Jooyong;Kim, Youngwon;Hwang, Changha
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.1199-1210
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    • 2013
  • The high unemployment rate is one of the major problems in most countries nowadays. Hence, the demand for small area labor statistics has rapidly increased over the past few years. However, since sample surveys for producing official statistics are mainly designed for large areas, it is difficult to produce reliable statistics at the small area level due to small sample sizes. Most of existing studies about the small area estimation are related with the estimation of parameters based on cross-sectional data. By the way, since many official statistics are repeatedly collected at a regular interval of time, for instance, monthly, quarterly, or yearly, we need an alternative model which can handle this type of panel data. In this paper, we derive the generalized kernel estimating equation which can model time-dependency among response variables and handle repeated measurement or panel data. We compare the proposed estimating equation with the generalized linear model and the generalized estimating equation through simulation, and apply it to estimating the unemployment rates of 25 areas in Gyeongsangnam-do and Ulsan for 2005.

Prototype-based Cost Estimating Model for Building Interior Construction in Design Development Stage (프로토타입기반 기본설계단계 건축마감공사비 산정 모델)

  • Kim, Hae-Gon;Park, Sung-Chul;Hong, Tae-Hoon;Hyun, Chang-Taek;Koo, Kyo-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.110-118
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    • 2007
  • For deciding the owner's budget of the building construction in the predesign stage, the probabilistic methodologies for estimating the cost are often studied, however these parameter-based conceptual estimating methodology has limitation of applying it to the practical business because it hardly can link the design decision-making and the cost estimating and control. Besides if the result of detail estimating after detail design is over the budget, locally and arbitrarily control the level of interior design and fix the design. This research proposed the prototype-based cost estimating model for building interior construction which leads to estimate the interior cost easily linking with design decision-making and supports to evaluate the design alternatives in the schematic design and the design development stage for office buildings. The model divides the building on the design process by Element Breakdown Structure and presents the design alternative by selecting the elements of each room from the database accumulated the historical office buildings' prototypes and estimates the cost. The 2 case studies presented to validate the effectiveness of as the linking tool integrating the design and construction data and applicability to the practical design on the presented prototype-based model.

A Study of Improvements in the Standards of Cost Estimate for the New Excellent Technology in Construction (건설 신기술의 원가산정기준 개선방안에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Ju-hyun;Tae, Yong-Ho;Baek, Seung-Ho;Kim, Kyoungmin
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2022
  • The New Excellent Technology (NET) designation system, introduced in 1989 for the purpose of promoting the development of domestic construction technology and enhancing national competitiveness, reviews the statement of construction cost of new technologies. And the cost reduction effect such as design, construction, and maintenance cost and the effect of reducing the construction duration are evaluated as an evaluation criteria of economic feasibility. However, in this evaluation process, differences of opinion between the institution of construction cost estimating standard management and the new technology developer about unique technologies frequently occur. In addition it is difficult to objectively compare the construction duration with existing similar technologies because there is no information on productivity as the current cost estimating standards for new technologies only present the required amount per unit quantity. In this study, the current state of cost estimating criteria review procedure, evaluation criteria, and cost estimating standards establishment method were analyzed when screening for the designation of a new construction technologies, and compared with overseas cost estimating standards, measures to improve the cost estimating standards of current construction new technologies were suggested. Through the improved cost estimating standards of this study, it is expected that cost information on new technologies will be provided to clients in more detail than the current ones, and the availability and applicability of new construction technologies would be improved by simplifying the construction cost calculation process more.

Bootstrap Estimation for GEE Models (일반화추정방정식(GEE)에 대한 부스트랩의 적용)

  • Park, Chong-Sun;Jeon, Yong-Moon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.207-216
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    • 2011
  • Bootstrap is a resampling technique to find an estimate of parameters or to evaluate the estimate. This technique has been used in estimating parameters in linear model(LM) and generalized linear model(GLM). In this paper, we explore the possibility of applying Bootstrapping Residuals, Pairs, and an Estimating Equation that are most widely used in LM and GLM to the generalized estimating equation(GEE) algorithm for modelling repeatedly measured regression data sets. We compared three bootstrapping methods with coefficient and standard error estimates of GEE models from one simulated and one real data set. Overall, the estimates obtained from bootstrap methods are quite comparable, except that estimates from bootstrapping pairs are somewhat different from others. We conjecture that the strange behavior of estimates from bootstrapping pairs comes from the inconsistency of those estimates. However, we need a more thorough simulation study to generalize it since those results are coming from only two small data sets.

Effect of initial ground temperature measurement on the design of borehole heat exchanger (초기 지중온도 측정이 지중 열교환기 설계에 미치는 영향)

  • Song, Yoon-ho;Kim, Seong-Kyun;Lee, Kang-Kun;Lee, Tae-Jong
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2009.06a
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    • pp.600-603
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    • 2009
  • We compared relative importance of thermal conductivity and initial ground temperature in designing borehole heat exchanger network and also we test accuracy of ground temperature estimation in thermal response test using a proven 3-D T-H modeler. The effect of error in estimating ground temperature on calculated total length of borehole heat exchanger was more than 3 times larger than the case of thermal conductivity in maximum 20% error range. Considering 10% of error in estimating thermal conductivity is generally acceptable, we have to define the initial ground temperature within 5% confidence level. Utilizing the mean annual ground surface temperature and the geothermal gradient map compiled so far can be a economic way of estimating ground temperature with some caution. When performing thermal response test for estimating ground temperature as well as measuring thermal conductivity, minimum 100 minutes of ambient circulation is required, which should be even more in case of very cold and hot seasons.

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Development of a Pig's Weight Estimating System Using Computer Vision (컴퓨터 시각을 이용한 돼지 무게 예측시스템의 개발)

  • 엄천일;정종훈
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.275-280
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    • 2004
  • The main objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a model for estimating pigs weight using computer vision for improving the management in Korean swine farms in Korea. This research was carried out in two steps: 1) to find a model that relates the projection area with the weight of a pig; 2) to implement the model in a computer vision system mainly consisted of a monochrome CCD camera, a frame grabber and a computer system for estimating the weight of pigs in a non-contact, real-time manner. The model was developed under an important assumption there were no observable genetic differences among the pigs. The main results were: 1) The relationship between the projection area and the weight of pigs was W = 0.0569 ${\times}$ A - 32.585($R^2$ = 0.953), where W is the weight in kg; A is the projection area of a pig in $\textrm{cm}^2$; 2) The model could estimate the weight of pigs with an error less than 3.5%.

Development of a Device for Estimating the Optimal Artificial Insemination Time of Individually Stalled Sows Using Direct-reflex Photo-sensors (직접반사형 포토센서를 이용한 스톨 사육 모돈의 인공수정적기 예측 장치 개발)

  • Kim D. J.;Yeon S. C.;Chang H. H.
    • Journal of Biosystems Engineering
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    • v.29 no.6 s.107
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    • pp.515-520
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    • 2004
  • A device far estimating the optimal artificial insemination time consisted of a computer, RS module, and six direct-reflex photo-sensors. Program was written in LabWindows CVI. In order to establish references for estimating optimal artificial insemination time, lying rate of the thirty three $Berkshire{\times}Hampshire crossbred sows (parity 5 to 6) was recorded from 2 days after moving into stalls to artificial insemination using a time lapse VCR and was measured every hour with one minute interval using the scan point sampling method. Twenty low hours in a day were divided into three comparing periods : 21:00 to 06:59, 07:00 to 13:59, and 14:00 to 20:59. If sum of the percentages of tying during a comparing period was less than the reference value, the starting hour of the comparing period was considered as onset of estrus and the optimal artificial insemination time was estimated at 20 to 24 hours after onset of estrus. The experimental device was evaluated with twenty five $Berkshire{\times}Hampshire$ crossbred sows (parity 2 to 7) and 23 of 25 sows $(92\%)$ were pregnant. This result suggests that the experimental device is excellent in performance for estimating optimal artificial insemination time.