• Title/Summary/Keyword: Estimates

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Regulatory Reform Proposals for the Korean Deep Sea Fishing Industry (원양어업(遠洋漁業)에 대한 정부규제(政府規制)의 개선방안(改善方案))

  • Kim, Jong-seok
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.93-110
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    • 1990
  • The basic purpose behind the Korean government's policy toward the Korean deep sea fishing industry is to limit growth of the industry. Therefore, the regulations on the industry are generally restrictive and interventionist. The policy is intended to maintain high domestic fish prices in order to protect the domestic coastal fishing industry. Some regulations have also been introduced to maintain "industrial order." Each fishing vessel must obtain a government permit for operation. The permit specifies the kind of fish it can catch, the area of sea in which it can operate, and the port at which it can unload its catches. The number of permits government issues each year is based on the estimates of the demand increase calculated by government officials, and the government traditionally has been fairly conservative in its estimation, reflecting its concern for fish price stabilization, which actually implies a gradual increase of the prices. There is also a restriction on importing vessels from abroad. This regulation is intended to protect the domestic shipbuilding industry. However, this regulation has resulted in an unusually high average age of Korean fishing vessels, causing fishing costs to rise. These regulations and the inflexible response of the regulators to changing circumstances have resulted in many problems: i) high domestic fish prices, which are, to some extent deliberately, inflated to three or four times the level of international prices, resulting in huge consumer welfare losses; ii) over-exploitation of coastal fish resources; iii) provision of a hospitable environment for inefficient firms to survive, which is especially evident from the fact that, despite the high fish prices in Korea, most of the firms in the industry do not enjoy high profitability. It also must be pointed out that the actual beneficiaries of the high fish prices are the large operators, who are protected from competition and provide most of the fish for domestic consumption, rather than the low-income fishing households and small coastal operators whom the policy was originally designed to help. This study proposes a set of regulatory reforms and policy changes which could Promote competition and equity within the industry and allow firms to reduce costs and increase productivity. Such changes can make the industry more efficient and internationally competitive. Major proposals are, among others: minimization of bureaucratic discretion in issuing fishing permits and maintaining transparency in the governments' decision-making processes; reduction of the government permit specifications and simplification of the operational categories within the industry; and removal of the restrictions on importing foreign fishing vessels.

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Measuring the Third-Person Effects of Public Opinion Polls: Focusing On Online Polls (여론조사보도에 대한 제3자효과 검증: 온라인 여론조사를 주목하며)

  • Kim, Sung-Tae;Willnat, Las;Weaver, David
    • Korean journal of communication and information
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    • v.32
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    • pp.49-73
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    • 2006
  • During the past decades, public opinion polls have become an ubiquitous tool for probing the complexity of people's beliefs and attitudes on a wide variety of issues. Especially since the late 1970s, the use of polls by news organizations has increased dramatically. Along with the proliferation of traditional polls, in the past few years pollsters and news organizations have come to recognize the advantages of online polls. Increasingly there has been more effort to take the pulse of the public through the Internet. With the Internet's rapid growth during the past years, advocates of online polling often emphasize the relative advantages over traditional polls. Researchers from Harris Black International Ltd., for example, argue that "Internet polling is less expensive and faster and offers higher response rates than telephone surveys." Moreover, since many of the newer online polls draw respondents from large databases of registered Internet users, results of online polls have become more balanced. A series of Harris Black online polls conducted during the 1998 gubernatorial and senatorial elections, for example, has accurately projected the winners in 21 of the 22 races it tracked. Many researchers, however, severely criticize online polls for not being representative of the larger population. Despite the often enormous number of participants, Internet users who participate in online polls tend to be younger, better educated and more affluent than the general population. As Traugott pointed out, the people polled in Internet surveys are a "self selected" group, and thus "have volunteered to be part of the test sample, which could mean they are more comfortable with technology, more informed about news and events ... than Americans who aren't online." The fact that users of online polls are self selected and demographically very different from Americans who have no access to the Internet is likely to influence the estimates of what the majority of people think about social or political issues. One of the goals of this study is therefore to analyze whether people perceive traditional and online public opinion polls differently. While most people might not differentiate sufficiently between traditional random sample polls and non representative online polls, some audiences might perceive online polls as more useful and representative. Since most online polls allow some form of direct participation, mostly in the form of an instant vote by mouse click, and often present their findings based on huge numbers of respondents, consumers of these polls might perceive them as more accurate, representative or reliable than traditional random sample polls. If that is true, perceptions of public opinion in society could be significantly distorted for those who rely on or participate in online polls. In addition to investigating how people perceive random sample and online polls, this study focuses on the perceived impact of public opinion polls. Similar to these past studies, which focused on how public opinion polls can influence the perception of mass opinion, this study will analyze how people perceive the effects of polls on themselves and other people. This interest springs from prior studies of the "third person effect," which have found that people often tend to perceive that persuasive communications exert a stronger influence on others than on themselves. While most studies concerned with the political effects of public opinion polls show that exit polls and early reporting of election returns have only weak or no effects on the outcome of election campaigns, some empirical findings suggest that exposure to polls can move people's opinions both toward and away from perceived majority opinion. Thus, if people indeed believe that polls influence others more than themselves, perceptions of majority opinion could be significantly altered because people might anticipate that others will react more strongly to poll results.

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Improvement of Radar Rainfall Estimation Using Radar Reflectivity Data from the Hybrid Lowest Elevation Angles (혼합 최저고도각 반사도 자료를 이용한 레이더 강우추정 정확도 향상)

  • Lyu, Geunsu;Jung, Sung-Hwa;Nam, Kyung-Yeub;Kwon, Soohyun;Lee, Cheong-Ryong;Lee, Gyuwon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.109-124
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    • 2015
  • A novel approach, hybrid surface rainfall (KNU-HSR) technique developed by Kyungpook Natinal University, was utilized for improving the radar rainfall estimation. The KNU-HSR technique estimates radar rainfall at a 2D hybrid surface consistings of the lowest radar bins that is immune to ground clutter contaminations and significant beam blockage. Two HSR techniques, static and dynamic HSRs, were compared and evaluated in this study. Static HSR technique utilizes beam blockage map and ground clutter map to yield the hybrid surface whereas dynamic HSR technique additionally applies quality index map that are derived from the fuzzy logic algorithm for a quality control in real time. The performances of two HSRs were evaluated by correlation coefficient (CORR), total ratio (RATIO), mean bias (BIAS), normalized standard deviation (NSD), and mean relative error (MRE) for ten rain cases. Dynamic HSR (CORR=0.88, BIAS= $-0.24mm\;hr^{-1}$, NSD=0.41, MRE=37.6%) shows better performances than static HSR without correction of reflectivity calibration bias (CORR=0.87, BIAS= $-2.94mm\;hr^{-1}$, NSD=0.76, MRE=58.4%) for all skill scores. Dynamic HSR technique overestimates surface rainfall at near range whereas it underestimates rainfall at far ranges due to the effects of beam broadening and increasing the radar beam height. In terms of NSD and MRE, dynamic HSR shows the best results regardless of the distance from radar. Static HSR significantly overestimates a surface rainfall at weaker rainfall intensity. However, RATIO of dynamic HSR remains almost 1.0 for all ranges of rainfall intensity. After correcting system bias of reflectivity, NSD and MRE of dynamic HSR are improved by about 20 and 15%, respectively.

Prevalence and trends in obesity among Korean children and adolescents in 1997 and 2005 (한국 소아청소년의 비만 유병률 추이: 1997년과 2005년 비교)

  • Oh, Kyungwon;Jang, Myoung Jin;Lee, Na Yeoun;Moon, Jin Soo;Lee, Chong Guk;Yoo, Myung Hwan;Kim, Young Taek
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.9
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    • pp.950-955
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : The objective of this study was to provide current estimates of the prevalence and examine trends of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents. Methods : Height and weight measurements from 183,159 (112,974 in 1997, 70,185 in 2005) children and adolescents aged 2 to 18 years were obtained via the 1997 and 2005 National Growth Survey. Obesity among children and adolescents was defined as being at or above the 95th percentile of the gender-specific body mass index (BMI) for age in the 2007 Korean National Growth Charts or a BMI of 25 or higher; overweight was defined as being at or above the 85th percentile to less than the 95th percentile BMI. Results : In 2005, 9.7% (11.3% for boys, 8.0% for girls) of South Korean children and adolescents were obese; 19.0% (19.7% for boys, 18.2% for girls) were overweight or obese. The overall prevalence of obesity increased from 5.8% in 1997 to 9.7% in 2005 (from 6.1% in 1997 to 11.3% in 2005 for boys and from 5.5% in 1997 to 8.0% in 2005 for girls); the increasing trend was most evident in boys, especially those aged 13-18 years. Conclusion : The prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents increased significantly during the eight-year period from 1997 to 2005. This study suggests that we need to make a priority of developing strategies to control obesity in children and adolescents; the potential health effects of increases in obesity are of considerable public health importance.

The Heterogeneity of Flow Distribution and Partition Coefficient in [15O-H2O] Myocardium Positron Emission Tomography ([15O-H2O] 심근 양전자 단층 촬영에서 혈류 분포의 비균일성과 분배계수)

  • Ahn, Ji Young;Lee, Dong Soo;Kim, Kyung Min;Jeong, Jae Min;Chung, June-Key;Shin, Seung-Ae;Lee, Myung Chul;Koh, Chang-Soon
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.32-49
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    • 1998
  • For estimation of regional myocardial blood flow with O-15 water PET, a few modifications considering partial volume effect based on single compartment model have been proposed. In this study, we attempted to quantify the degree of heterogeneity and to show the effect of tissue flow heterogeneity on partition coefficient(${\lambda}$) and to find the relation between perfusable tissue index(PTI) and ${\lambda}$ by computer simulation using two modified models. We simulated tissue curves for the regions with homogeneous and heterogeneous blood flow over a various flow range(0.2-4.0ml/g/min). Simulated heterogeneous tissue composed of 4 subregions of the same or different size of block which have different homogeneous flow and different degree of slope of distribution of blood flow. We measured the index representing heterogeneity of distribution of blood flow for each heterogeneous tissue by the constitution heterogeneity(CH). For model I, we assumed that tissue recovery coefficient ($F_{MME}$) was the product of partial volume effect($F_{MMF}$) and PTI. Using model I, PTI, flow, and $F_{MM}$ were estimated. For model II, we assumed that partition coefficient was another variable which could represent tissue characteristics of heterogeneity of flow distribution. Using model II, PTI, flow and ${\lambda}$ were estimated. For the simulated tissue with homogeneous flow, both models gave exactly the same estimates, of three parameters. For the simulated tissue with heterogeneous flow distribution, in model I, flow and $F_{MM}$ were correctly estimated as CH was increased moderately. In model II, flow and ${\lambda}$ were decreased curvi-linearly as CH was increased. The degree of underestimation of ${\lambda}$ obtained using model II, was correlated with CH. The degree of underestimation of flow was dependent on the degree of underestimation of ${\lambda}$. PTI was somewhat overestimated and did not change according to CH. We conclude that estimated ${\lambda}$ reflect the degree of tissue heterogeneity of flow distribution. We could use the degree of underestimation of ${\lambda}$ to find the characteristic heterogeneity of tissue flow and use ${\lambda}$ to recover the underestimated flow.

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Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Growth-Related Traits in 1-Year Old of Two Korean Abalone Subspecies, Haliotis discus hannai and H. discus discus, by Using Multiple Traits of Animal Model (다형질 Animal Model에 의한 12개월령 한국산 전북 2 아종의 성장관련형질에 대한 유전모수 추정)

  • Choe, Mi-Kyung;Han, Seock-Jung;Yang, Sang-Geun;Won, Seung-Hwan;Park, Choul-Ji;Yeo, In-Kyu
    • The Korean Journal of Malacology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.121-130
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    • 2008
  • In other aquaculture species, large improvements in growth have been achieved through selective breeding. Ezo abalone(Haliotis discus hannai) and disk abalone(H. discus discus) are major aquatic animals cultured in Asia, but selective breeding for the promotion of growth with these abalones has not been actively pursued. Recently significant efforts are being made to promote production of these species through selective breeding in Korea. The aims of this work were to estimate the general genetic parameters, heritabilities, and genetic and phenotypic correlations on growth-related traits at 1-year old in two Korean abalone subspecies, H. discus hannai and H. discus discus, by using multiple trait animal model. The data were collected from the records of 1,504 individuals produced from 22 sires and 26 dams in H. discus hannai and 297 individuals produced from 5 sires and 6 dams in H. discus discus, which evaluated by the Genetics and Breeding Research Center, National Fisheries Research & Development Institute(NFRDI). Genetic parameters were estimated for these abalone subspecies raised in Bukjeju branch, NFRDI, from May 20, 2004 to May 16, 2005, respectively. The heritability estimates obtained from restricted maximum likelihood(REML) were higher than expected, ranging from 0.40 to 0.43 for growth traits shell length, shell width and body weight in H. discus hannai and from 0.26 to 0.51 in H. discus discus, respectively. The heritabilities for shell shape and condition factor were lower than others of growth traits such as ranging from 0.09 to 0.19 in H. discus hannai and from 0.10 to 0.23 in H. discus discus, respectively. Genetic and phenotypic were > 0.93 between shell parameters and weight in two abalone species, respectively, indicating that breeding for weight gains could be successfully achieved by selecting for shell length.

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Novel LTE based Channel Estimation Scheme for V2V Environment (LTE 기반 V2V 환경에서 새로운 채널 추정 기법)

  • Chu, Myeonghun;Moon, Sangmi;Kwon, Soonho;Lee, Jihye;Bae, Sara;Kim, Hanjong;Kim, Cheolsung;Kim, Daejin;Hwang, Intae
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.54 no.3
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    • pp.3-9
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    • 2017
  • Recently, in 3rd Generation Partnership Project(3GPP), there is a study of the Long Term Evolution(LTE) based vehicle communication which has been actively conducted to provide a transport efficiency, telematics and infortainment. Because the vehicle communication is closely related to the safety, it requires a reliable communication. Because vehicle speed is very fast, unlike the movement of the user, radio channel is rapidly changed and generate a number of problems such as transmission quality degradation. Therefore, we have to continuously updates the channel estimates. There are five types of conventional channel estimation scheme. Least Square(LS) is obtained by pilot symbol which is known to transmitter and receiver. Decision Directed Channel Estimation(DDCE) scheme uses the data signal for channel estimation. Constructed Data Pilot(CDP) scheme uses the correlation characteristic between adjacent two data symbols. Spectral Temporal Averaging(STA) scheme uses the frequency-time domain average of the channel. Smoothing scheme reduces the peak error value of data decision. In this paper, we propose the novel channel estimation scheme in LTE based Vehicle-to-Vehicle(V2V) environment. In our Hybrid Reliable Channel Estimation(HRCE) scheme, DDCE and Smoothing schemes are combined and finally the Linear Minimum Mean Square Error(LMMSE) scheme is applied to minimize the channel estimation error. Therefore it is possible to detect the reliable data. In simulation results, overall performance can be improved in terms of Normalized Mean Square Error(NMSE) and Bit Error Rate(BER).

Estimation of Near Surface Air Temperature Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data and Geostatistics (MODIS 지표면 온도 자료와 지구통계기법을 이용한 지상 기온 추정)

  • Shin, HyuSeok;Chang, Eunmi;Hong, Sungwook
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2014
  • Near surface air temperature data which are one of the essential factors in hydrology, meteorology and climatology, have drawn a substantial amount of attention from various academic domains and societies. Meteorological observations, however, have high spatio-temporal constraints with the limits in the number and distribution over the earth surface. To overcome such limits, many studies have sought to estimate the near surface air temperature from satellite image data at a regional or continental scale with simple regression methods. Alternatively, we applied various Kriging methods such as ordinary Kriging, universal Kriging, Cokriging, Regression Kriging in search of an optimal estimation method based on near surface air temperature data observed from automatic weather stations (AWS) in South Korea throughout 2010 (365 days) and MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data (MOD11A1, 365 images). Due to high spatial heterogeneity, auxiliary data have been also analyzed such as land cover, DEM (digital elevation model) to consider factors that can affect near surface air temperature. Prior to the main estimation, we calculated root mean square error (RMSE) of temperature differences from the 365-days LST and AWS data by season and landcover. The results show that the coefficient of variation (CV) of RMSE by season is 0.86, but the equivalent value of CV by landcover is 0.00746. Seasonal differences between LST and AWS data were greater than that those by landcover. Seasonal RMSE was the lowest in winter (3.72). The results from a linear regression analysis for examining the relationship among AWS, LST, and auxiliary data show that the coefficient of determination was the highest in winter (0.818) but the lowest in summer (0.078), thereby indicating a significant level of seasonal variation. Based on these results, we utilized a variety of Kriging techniques to estimate the surface temperature. The results of cross-validation in each Kriging model show that the measure of model accuracy was 1.71, 1.71, 1.848, and 1.630 for universal Kriging, ordinary Kriging, cokriging, and regression Kriging, respectively. The estimates from regression Kriging thus proved to be the most accurate among the Kriging methods compared.

Accounting Conservatism and Excess Executive Compensation (회계 보수주의와 경영자 초과보상)

  • Byun, Seol-Won;Park, Sang-Bong
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.187-207
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    • 2018
  • This study examines the negative relationship between accounting conservatism and excess executive compensation and examines whether their relationship increases as managerial incentive compensation intensity increases. For this purpose, a total of 2,755 company-years were selected for the analysis of the companies listed on the Korea Stock Exchange from December 2012 to 2016 as the final sample. The results of this study are as follows. First, there is a statistically significant negative relationship between accounting conservatism and manager overpayment. This implies that managers' incentives to distort future cash flow estimates by over booking assets or accounting profits in order to maximize their compensation when manager compensation is linked to firm performance. In this sense, accounting conservatism can reduce opportunistic behavior by restricting managerial accounting choices, which can be interpreted as a reduction in overpayment to managers. Second, we found that the relationship between accounting conservatism and excess executive compensation increases with the incentive compensation for accounting performance. The higher the managerial incentive compensation intensity of accounting performance is, the more likely it is that the manager has the incentive to make earnings adjustments. Therefore, the high level of incentive compensation for accounting performance means that the ex post settling up problem due to over-compensation can become serious. In this case, the higher the managerial incentive compensation intensity for accounting performance, the greater the role and utility of conservatism in manager compensation contracts. This study is based on the fact that it presents empirical evidence on the usefulness of accounting conservatism in managerial compensation contracts theoretically presented by Watts (2003) and the additional basis that conservatism can be used as a useful tool for investment decision.

Comparative Study on Monetary Estimates of Natural Environment and Cultural Relics in Gyeongju National Park (경주국립공원의 문화유적과 자연환경의 가치추정 비교연구)

  • Kang, Kee-Rae;Kim, Dong-Pil;Baek, Jae-Bong
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.273-282
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    • 2012
  • This study has estimated Gyeongju National Park's natural environment and cultural relic value in the same way and then been performed to compare the size of the value. Representative method to measure environmental property is contingent valuation methods, CVM. The variables and estimated models adopted for the calculation were same and the respondents were asked by distinguishing between the amount which they would pay to preserve the natural environment and that which they were willing to pay to preserve the cultural relics. As the result, WTP(Willing to pay), the amount that they were willing to pay to preserve the natural environment of Gyeongju National Park was 17,838 won per person and that to preserve the cultural relics appeared to be 316,248 won per person. Based on this, it was estimated that the value of the natural environment with which Gyeongju National Park provided annual visitors was 47 billion won and that the annual value of the cultural relics was 845.7 billion. If the natural environment and the cultural relics value elements are united, it can be estimated that the natural environment and cultural relic value got at the time of people's first visit to Gyeongju National Park is 334,086 won and that the annual value is 893.4 billion won. In this study, the value of the cultural relics has been estimated 18 times higher than that of the natural environment. This reason was that visitors judged that a total of 66 cultural properties including 11 national treasures, 23 treasures, 13 historic places, one historic sites and scenic spot and 18 local cultural properties, etc. which were distributed in Gyeongju National Park were worth far more than the natural environment. Based on the result of this study, the operating management plan of Gyeongju National Park should include a differentiated operation strategy through consultation with relevant experts by taking into account characteristics of the physical components.