• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제28권6호
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• pp.627-641
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• 2021

An asymmetric least squares estimation method has been employed to estimate linear models for percentile regression. An asymmetric maximum likelihood estimation (AMLE) has been developed for the estimation of Poisson percentile linear models. In this study, we propose generalized nonlinear percentile regression using the AMLE, and the use of the parametric bootstrap method to obtain confidence intervals for the estimates of parameters of interest and smoothing functions of estimates. We consider three conditional distributions of response variables given covariates such as normal, exponential, and Poisson for three mean functions with one linear and two nonlinear models in the simulation studies. The proposed method provides reasonable estimates and confidence interval estimates of parameters, and comparable Monte Carlo asymptotic performance along with the sample size and quantiles. We illustrate applications of the proposed method using real-life data from chemical and radiation epidemiological studies.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.337-346
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• 2019

This paper discusses a method for obtaining nonnegative estimates for variance components in a random effects model. A variance component should be positive by definition. Nevertheless, estimates of variance components are sometimes given as negative values, which is not desirable. The proposed method is based on two basic ideas. One is the identification of the orthogonal vector subspaces according to factors and the other is to ascertain the projection in each orthogonal vector subspace. Hence, an observation vector can be denoted by the sum of projections. The method suggested here always produces nonnegative estimates using projections. Hartley's synthesis is used for the calculation of expected values of quadratic forms. It also discusses how to set up a residual model for each projection.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 3th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.354-360
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• 2009

The demands for large-scale construction projects such as Mega-projects are largely increasing due to the rapid growth of increasing populations as well as the need to replace existing buildings and infrastructure. Increasing costs of materials, supplies, and labors require the first cost estimates at the preliminary planning stage to be as accurate as possible. This paper presents the results obtained from the survey on evaluating nine critical success factors that influence the accurate first cost estimates for large-scale projects from practical experiences. It then examines the current cost structures of construction companies for large-scale projects, followed by the causes for cost and schedule overrun. Twenty completed surveys were collected and the Analytic Hierarchy Process was applied to analyze the data. The results indicate that technology issues, the contract type, and social and environmental impacts are the significant leading factors for accurate first cost estimates of large-scale construction projects.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2013년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.133-135
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• 2013

The most difficult process in the construction of free-form buildings is to manufacture and construct exterior panels designed in a complex way. The façade of the free-form buildings include flat-panels, one-way curvature-panels, and bi-directional curvature panels. To construct these forms, it is necessary to go through the process of optimizing. But as for the optimizing technologies, BIM-specializing companies exclusively protect those technologies, so small construction companies have difficulty in rough estimates. Therefore, this study was aimed to provide the basic data in making the rough estimates of free-form buildings by carrying out the optimizing process for the façade of Dongdaemun Design Plaza and conducting the rough estimates according to the stage of production methods and optimization.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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• 제28권1호
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• pp.33-58
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• 2024

This paper reviews basic concepts for Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINN) applied to the initial value problems for ordinary differential equations. In particular, using only basic calculus, we derive the error estimates where the error functions (the differences between the true solution and the approximations expressed by neural networks) are dominated by training loss functions. Numerical experiments are conducted to validate our error estimates, visualizing the relationship between the error and the training loss for various first-order differential equations and a second-order linear equation.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제26권5호
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• pp.697-712
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• 2013

다시점 자료 연구에서 일반화추정방정식은 가상관행렬을 잘못 가정하더라도 모수의 일치추정량을 도출하므로 많이 이용된다. 하지만, 결측 체계가 완전임의결측이 아닌 경우에는 편의추정량을 제공하고, 시간-종속적 공변량이 포함된 경우에는 가상관행렬에 따라 회귀계수 추정값이 다르게 도출될 수 있는 문제점이 있다. 결측 체계가 임의결측인 경우에 발생하는 문제를 해결하기 위해 가중 방법과 다중대체 방법을 사용하는 것이 제안되었다. 본 논문에서는 시간-종속적 공변량이 포함된 이분형 반복측정자료를 GEE를 이용하여 분석할 때 다양한 결측 체계에서 일반화추정방정식 방법, 가중 방법, 다중대체 방법의 회귀계수 추정에 대한 로버스트성과 정확성을 모의실험을 통하여 비교해 보았다. 세 가지 방법 모두에서 시간-종속적 공변량의 회귀계수가 시간-독립적 공변량의 회귀계수에 비해 가상관행렬에 따라 추정값의 차이가 크게 나타났다. 다른 두 방법에 비해 다중대체 방법이 가상관행렬의 형태에 대해 더 로버스트하고 편의도 작은 추정치를 도출하였다.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제18권6호
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• pp.51-59
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• 2016

OBJECTIVES : The objective of this study is to estimate the appropriate storage required for deicing materials in Gangwon-do for successful snow removal operations during the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympic Games. The final estimates of the deicing chemicals can be used by public agencies to aid decision making. METHODS : First, the database that exists in the road snow-removal management system (RSMS) of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport, South Korea was used to determine historical characteristics of snow removal experiences in Gangwon-do. The database includes historical information, including regional and road weather data and number of snow-removal works. Second, both the maximum and the actual amount of storages used for deicing materials in the past three years were analyzed. Lastly, the final estimates of the deicing materials were evaluated using an additional equation. It considers frequency of salt spray application, total administrative road length estimated by road agencies, and number of days required for snow removal works in Gangwon-do. Consequently, the results show that significant differences were not observed between the final estimates and the maximum amount used during the past three years. RESULTS : The final estimates of the deicing materials are almost similar to the maximum amount used during the past three years in Gangwon-do. CONCLUSIONS : The study shows that the estimates of deicing chemicals can be useful when decision making is required for the snow-removal policy.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.127-135
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• 2008

The mission of the Forest Inventory and Analyis (FIA) program of the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, is to conduct the national forest inventory of the United States of America for purposes of estimating the area of forest land; the volume, growth, and removal of forest resources; and the health of the forest. Users of FIA data, estimates, and related products include land managers, policy and decision-makers, forest industry, environmental organizations, and university researchers. To accomplish its mission, the FIA program has established a sampling design with an intensity of approximately one permanent plot per 2,400 ha across the entire country. Depending on the region of the country, each plot is remeasured at intervals of five or 10 years. The program releases data annually and reports estimates at the county level for each state every five years. Due to budgetary constraints and natural variability among plot observations, sufficient numbers of plots cannot be measured to satisfy precision guidelines for the estimates of many variables unless the estimation process is enhanced using ancillary data. Classified satellite imagery has been demonstrated to be a source of ancillary data that can be used with stratified estimation techniques to increase the precision of estimates with little corresponding increase in costs. A crucial factor restricting the utility of FIA data is that the exact locations of inventory plots cannot be released to the public. Thus, users are generally not able to obtain estimates for small areas or for their own areas of interest if exact plot locations are required. To compensate, satellite imagery, inventory plot data, and the k-Nearest Neighbors technique are being used to construct Internet-based maps of forest attributes from which estimates for arbitrary user-defined areas of interest may be obtained.

• 한국산업보건학회지
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.358-367
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• 2019

Objectives: This study aimed to review model algorithms and input parameters applied to some exposure models and to compare the simulated estimates using an exposure scenario from each model. Methods: A total of five exposure models which can estimate inhalation exposure were selected; the Korea Ministry of Environment(KMOE) exposure model, European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals Targeted Risk Assessment(ECETOC TRA), SprayExpo, and ConsExpo model. Algorithms and input parameters for exposure estimation were reviewed and the exposure scenario was used for comparing the modeled estimates. Results: Algorithms in each model commonly consist of the function combining physicochemical properties, use characteristics, user exposure factors, and environmental factors. The outputs including air concentration ($mg/m^3$) and inhaled dose(mg/kg/day) are estimated applying input parameters with the common factors to the algorithm. In particular, the input parameters needed to estimate are complicated among the models and models need more individual input parameters in addition to common factors. In case of CEM, it can be obtained more detailed exposure estimates separating user's breathing zone(near-field) and those at influencing zone(far-field) by two-box model. The modeled exposure estimates using the exposure scenario were similar between the models; they were ranged from 0.82 to $1.38mg/m^3$ for concentration and from 0.015 to 0.180 mg/kg/day for inhaled dose, respectively. Conclusions: Modeling technique can be used for a useful tool in the process of exposure assessment if the exposure data are scarce, but it is necessary to consider proper input parameters and exposure scenario which can affect the real exposure conditions.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.1-25
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• 2016

본 연구는 조기사망 위험 감소를 위한 지불의사금액에 대한 양분선택형 조건부가치측정(CV) 자료를 이용하여, 자의적인 모수적 분포(즉, 정규분포, 로지스틱분포, 로그정규분포, 지수분포)를 가정하여 도출하는 지불의사금액 대푯값(즉, 평균 내지 중앙값)의 변동성을 비교 검토하였다. 이를 위해 특정 모수적 분포라는 제약을 갖지 않는 Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법(nonparametric estimation method)에 의한 결과를 함께 비교 검토하면, 정책의사결정에서는 인정되기 어려운 수준의 WTP 대푯값들의 변동성이 확인되었다. 한편 Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법에 의한 WTP의 대푯값은 기본적으로 자의적 모수적 분포 가정에 의한 일종의 오지정 편의를 회피할 수 있다. 또한 Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법으로는 단일양분선택형 CV 자료이든 이중양분선택형 CV 자료이든 거의 유사한 추정치를 도출하고, 모수적 분포를 가정한 추정방법으로는 통계적으로 유의한 추정치를 얻지 못하는 상황에서도 통계적으로 유의한 추정치를 얻을 수 있는 강건성(robustness)을 보여주었다. 그러므로 양분선택형 CV 자료에서 특정 모수적 분포의 적합성을 판단하기 어려운 상황에서 자의적 모수적 분포의 가정에서 도출한 WTP의 대푯값들이 상당한 변동성을 보인다면, Turnbull 비모수적 추정방법에 의한 WTP의 평균 추정치가 정책의사결정에서 논란의 여지를 회피할 수 있는 비자의적이고 강건한 추정치가 될 수 있음을 확인할 수 있다.