• 제목/요약/키워드: Estimate lifetime

검색결과 198건 처리시간 0.021초

Radiotherapy for gastric mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue lymphoma: dosimetric comparison and risk assessment of solid secondary cancer

  • Bae, Sun Hyun;Kim, Dong Wook;Kim, Mi-Sook;Shin, Myung-Hee;Park, Hee Chul;Lim, Do Hoon
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • 제35권1호
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    • pp.78-89
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: To determine the optimal radiotherapy technique for gastric mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue lymphoma (MALToma), we compared the dosimetric parameters and the risk of solid secondary cancer from scattered doses among anterior-posterior/ posterior-anterior parallel-opposed fields (AP/PA), anterior, posterior, right, and left lateral fields (4_field), 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) using noncoplanar beams, and intensity-modulated radiotherapy composed of 7 coplanar beams (IMRT_co) and 7 coplanar and noncoplanar beams (IMRT_non). Materials and Methods: We retrospectively generated 5 planning techniques for 5 patients with gastric MALToma. Homogeneity index (HI), conformity index (CI), and mean doses of the kidney and liver were calculated from the dose-volume histograms. Applied the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation VII report to scattered doses, the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) was calculated to estimate the risk of solid secondary cancer. Results: The best value of CI was obtained with IMRT, although the HI varied among patients. The mean kidney dose was the highest with AP/PA, followed by 4_field, 3D-CRT, IMRT_co, and IMRT_non. On the other hand, the mean liver dose was the highest with 4_field and the lowest with AP/PA. Compared with 4_field, the LAR for 3D-CRT decreased except the lungs, and the LAR for IMRT_co and IMRT_non increased except the lungs. However, the absolute differences were much lower than <1%. Conclusion: Tailored RT techniques seem to be beneficial because it could achieve adjacent organ sparing with very small and clinically irrelevant increase of secondary solid cancer risk compared to the conventional techniques.

철도 차량용 방진고무의 온도에 따른 뮬린스 효과 (Temperature-dependent Mullins Effect in Anti-vibration Rubber for Railway Vehicles)

  • 오성훈;이수영;유지혜;김홍석;정성균;신기훈
    • 한국생산제조학회지
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.193-198
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    • 2017
  • Rubber materials are widely used for anti-vibration in various industries such as railways, automobile, and aviation. However, various factors hinder the accurate prediction of mechanical properties and lifetime of these materials. Particularly, a stress softening phenomenon Mullins effect greatly affects the accuracy of test results by reducing the initial peak stress. Although the Mullins effect has been studied previously, research on its temperature dependence is lacking. In this study, we performed experiments to estimate the temperature dependence of the Mullins effect. Dumbbell specimens made of natural rubber (NR65) was mounted on a stress softening tester and placed in a heat chamber, where they were tested at temperature of 25, 50, and $80^{\circ}C$. Further, five test sets, each consisting of 10 loading/unloading cycles were sequentially performed at predetermined time intervals. Based on the test results, we assessed the effect of temperature and time interval on stress softening and recovery.

An Efficient Chloride Ingress Model for Long-Term Lifetime Assessment of Reinforced Concrete Structures Under Realistic Climate and Exposure Conditions

  • Nguyen, Phu Tho;Bastidas-Arteaga, Emilio;Amiri, Ouali;Soueidy, Charbel-Pierre El
    • International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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    • 제11권2호
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    • pp.199-213
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    • 2017
  • Chloride penetration is among the main causes of corrosion initiation in reinforced concrete (RC) structures producing premature degradations. Weather and exposure conditions directly affect chloride ingress mechanisms and therefore the operational service life and safety of RC structures. Consequently, comprehensive chloride ingress models are useful tools to estimate corrosion initiation risks and minimize maintenance costs for RC structures placed under chloride-contaminated environments. This paper first presents a coupled thermo-hydro-chemical model for predicting chloride penetration into concrete that accounts for realistic weather conditions. This complete numerical model takes into account multiple factors affecting chloride ingress such as diffusion, convection, chloride binding, ionic interaction, and concrete aging. Since the complete model could be computationally expensive for long-term assessment, this study also proposes model simplifications in order to reduce the computational cost. Long-term chloride assessments of complete and reduced models are compared for three locations in France (Brest, Strasbourg and Nice) characterized by different weather and exposure conditions (tidal zone, de-icing salts and salt spray). The comparative study indicates that the reduced model is computationally efficient and accurate for long-term chloride ingress modeling in comparison to the complete one. Given that long-term assessment requires larger climate databases, this research also studies how climate models may affect chloride ingress assessment. The results indicate that the selection of climate models as well as the considered training periods introduce significant errors for mid- and long- term chloride ingress assessment.

단열 도료 코팅 창호의 냉난방부하 특성분석 및 경제성 평가 (The Estimation of Heating, Cooling Load and Economical Efficiency Analysis of Insulation Paint Coating Windows)

  • 정열화;김병수
    • 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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    • 제31권6호
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    • pp.95-102
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of study is to estimate heating, cooling load performance and economic efficiency in office building with applied the functional paint. this paint can reduced SHGC(Solar Heat Gain Coefficient) on the glazing surface by coating. In this study, estimated to compared with double glazing, low-e glazing, IP(Insulation Paint) and IPu(Insulation UV-Cut Paint) coating glazing. As a result of this study, 1)heating & cooling load Analysis, SHGC value and U-factor of double glazing is about 0.70 and 3.29($W/m^2K$). low-E glazing is about 0.65 and 2.70($W/m^2K$). Two-side it is about 0.27 and 3.25($W/m^2K$). When compared to double glazing, annual heating & cooling load of low-E glazing, Two-side IPu and IP paint coating glazing is 3,012MWh($124kWh/m^2$), 2,910MWh($120kWh/m^2$), 2,867MWh($118.4kWh/m^2$) and 2,867MWh($118.4kWh/m^2$). It i sreduced to 2.0%, 5.2%, 6.7%, and 6.7% respectively. 2)the estimation of economic efficiency, low-e glazing installed in office building can not recover the investment within a lifetime 40years. but IPu and IP paint, two-side coating in glazing, have a payback period of 13 years respectively.

Statistical analysis on the fluence factor of surveillance test data of Korean nuclear power plants

  • Lee, Gyeong-Geun;Kim, Min-Chul;Yoon, Ji-Hyun;Lee, Bong-Sang;Lim, Sangyeob;Kwon, Junhyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제49권4호
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    • pp.760-768
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    • 2017
  • The transition temperature shift (TTS) of the reactor pressure vessel materials is an important factor that determines the lifetime of a nuclear power plant. The prediction of the TTS at the end of a plant's lifespan is calculated based on the equation of Regulatory Guide 1.99 revision 2 (RG1.99/2) from the US. The fluence factor in the equation was expressed as a power function, and the exponent value was determined by the early surveillance data in the US. Recently, an advanced approach to estimate the TTS was proposed in various countries for nuclear power plants, and Korea is considering the development of a new TTS model. In this study, the TTS trend of the Korean surveillance test results was analyzed using a nonlinear regression model and a mixed-effect model based on the power function. The nonlinear regression model yielded a similar exponent as the power function in the fluence compared with RG1.99/2. The mixed-effect model had a higher value of the exponent and showed superior goodness of fit compared with the nonlinear regression model. Compared with RG1.99/2 and RG1.99/3, the mixed-effect model provided a more accurate prediction of the TTS.

파괴적 가속열화시험 데이터의 분산가정에 따른 수명비교 (Comparison of Storage Lifetimes by Variance Assumption using Accelerated Degradation Test Data)

  • 김종규;백승준;손영갑;박상현;이문호;강인식
    • 한국군사과학기술학회지
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.173-179
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    • 2018
  • Estimating reliability of a non-repairable system using the degradation data, variance assumption such as homogeneity (constant) or heteroscedasticity (time-variant) could affect accuracy of reliability estimation. This paper showed reliability estimation and comparison results under normal conditions using accelerated degradation data obtained from destructive measurements, according to variance assumption of the data at each measurement time. Degradation data from three accelerated conditions with stress factors of temperature and humidity were used to estimate reliability. The $B_{10}$ lifetime was estimated as 1243.8 years by constant variance assumption, and 18.9 years by time-variant variance. And variance assumption provided different analysis results of important stresses to reliability. Thus, accurate assumption of variance at each measurement time is required when estimating reliability using degradation data of a non-repairable system.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis for National Dyslipidemia Screening Program in Korea: Results of Best Case Scenario Analysis Using a Markov Model

  • Kim, Jae-Hyun;Park, Eun-Cheol;Kim, Tae-Hyun;Nam, Chung-Mo;Chun, Sung-Youn;Lee, Tae-Hoon;Park, Sohee
    • 보건행정학회지
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    • 제29권3호
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    • pp.357-367
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    • 2019
  • Background: This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of 21 different national dyslipidemia screening strategies according to total cholesterol (TC) cutoff and screening interval among 40 years or more for the primary prevention of coronary heart disease over a lifetime in Korea, from a societal perspective. Methods: A decision tree was used to estimate disease detection with the 21 different screening strategies, while a Markov model was used to model disease progression until death, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs from a Korea societal perspective. Results: The results showed that the strategy with TC 200 mg/dL and 4-year interval cost \4,625,446 for 16.65105 QALYs per person and strategy with TC 200 mg/dL and 3-year interval cost \4,691,771 for 16.65164 QALYs compared with \3,061,371 for 16.59877 QALYs for strategy with no screening. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of strategy with TC 200 mg/dL and 4-year interval versus strategy with no screening was \29,916,271/QALY. At a Korea willingness-to-pay threshold of \30,500,000/QALY, strategy with TC 200 mg/dL and 4-year interval is cost-effective compared with strategy with no screening. Sensitivity analyses showed that results were robust to reasonable variations in model parameters. Conclusion: In this study, revised national dyslipidemia screening strategy with TC 200 mg/dL and 4-year interval could be a cost-effective option. A better understanding of the Korean dyslipidemia population may be necessary to aid in future efforts to improve dyslipidemia diagnosis and management.

감마과정 모델을 이용한 KM6 추진제의 저장수명 예측 (Estimation of Shelf Life for Propellant KM6 by Using Gamma Process Model)

  • 박성호;김재훈
    • 한국추진공학회지
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2012
  • KM6 단기추진제의 저장수명을 감마과정 이론을 이용한 확률론적 방법으로 추산하였다. 장기 저장에 따른 안정제 함량의 저하량이 0.8%일 때를 상태고장으로 보았으며 정상감마과정으로 가정하였을 때 형상함수의 상수와 척도모수를 모멘트법으로 추정하였다. 저장기간별 확률밀도함수로부터 각 저장기간에서의 상태분포를 확인할 수 있으며 누적고장분포함수 곡선에서 누적고장확률이 10%인 $B_{10}$수명은 25년이며 $B_{50}$수명은 36년으로 추산되었다. 실용적 관점에서 볼 때 $B_{50}$수명을 평균저장수명으로 볼 수 있으며 확률과정론을 이용하면 저장수명을 분포곡선으로 표현할 수 있다.

열화되는 성능 파라메터를 가지는 시스템의 신뢰성 예측에 관한 연구 (A Study on Reliability Prediction of System with Degrading Performance Parameter)

  • 김연수;정영배
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제38권4호
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    • pp.142-148
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    • 2015
  • Due to advancements in technology and manufacturing capability, it is not uncommon that life tests yield no or few failures at low stress levels. In these situations it is difficult to analyse lifetime data and make meaningful inferences about product or system reliability. For some products or systems whose performance characteristics degrade over time, a failure is said to have occurred when a performance characteristic crosses a critical threshold. The measurements of the degradation characteristic contain much useful and credible information about product or system reliability. Degradation measurements of the performance characteristics of an unfailed unit at different times can directly relate reliability measures to physical characteristics. Reliability prediction based on physical performance measures can be an efficient and alternative method to estimate for some highly reliable parts or systems. If the degradation process and the distance between the last measurement and a specified threshold can be established, the remaining useful life is predicted in advance. In turn, this prediction leads to just in time maintenance decision to protect systems. In this paper, we describe techniques for mapping product or system which has degrading performance parameter to the associated classical reliability measures in the performance domain. This paper described a general modeling and analysis procedure for reliability prediction based on one dominant degradation performance characteristic considering pseudo degradation performance life trend model. This pseudo degradation trend model is based on probability modeling of a failure mechanism degradation trend and comparison of a projected distribution to pre-defined critical soft failure point in time or cycle.

Identifying early indicator traits for sow longevity using a linear-threshold model in Thai Large White and Landrace females

  • Plaengkaeo, Suppasit;Duangjinda, Monchai;Stalder, Kenneth J.
    • Animal Bioscience
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    • 제34권1호
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    • pp.20-25
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    • 2021
  • Objective: The objective of the study was to investigate the possibility of utilizing an early litter size trait as an indirect selection trait for longevity and to estimate genetic parameters between sow stayability and litter size at different parities using a linear-threshold model for longevity in Thai Large White (LW) and Landrace (LR) populations. Methods: The data included litter size at first, second, and third parities (NBA1, NBA2, and NBA3) and sow stayability from first to fourth farrowings (STAY14). The data was obtained from 10,794 LR and 9,475 LW sows. Genetic parameters were estimated using the multiple-trait animal model. A linear-threshold model was used in which NBA1, NBA2, and NBA3 were continuous traits, while STAY14 was considered a binary trait. Results: Heritabilities for litter size were low and ranged from 0.01 to 0.06 for both LR and LW breeds. Similarly, heritabilities for stayability were low for both breeds. Genetic associations between litter size and stayability ranged from 0.43 to 0.65 for LR populations and 0.12 to 0.55 for LW populations. The genetic correlation between NBA1 and STAY14 was moderate and in a favorable direction for both LR and LW breeds (0.65 and 0.55, respectively). Conclusion: A linear-threshold model could be utilized to analyze litter size and sow stayability traits. Furthermore, selection for litter size at first parity, which was the genetic trait correlated with longevity, is possible when one attempts to improve lifetime productivity in Thai swine populations.