• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
• /
• v.43 no.1
• /
• pp.1-8
• /
• 2019

Identifying behavioral errors of seafarers that have led to marine accidents is a basis for research into prevention or mitigation of marine accidents. The purpose of this study is to estimate the optimal probability distribution function needed to model behavioral errors of crew members into three behaviors (i.e., Skill-, Rule-, Knowledge-based). Through use of behavioral data obtained from previous accidents, we estimated the optimal probability distribution function for the three behavioral errors and verified the significance between the probability values derived from the probability distribution function. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) was applied to the probability distribution function estimation and variance analysis (ANOVA) used for the significance test. The obtained experimental results show that the probability distribution function with the smallest error can be estimated for each of the three behavioral errors for eight types of marine accidents. The statistical significance of the three behavioral errors for eight types of marine accidents calculated using the probability distribution function was observed. In addition, behavioral errors were also found to significantly affect marine accidents. The results of this study can be applied to predicting marine accidents caused by behavioral errors.

• Water for future
• /
• v.28 no.5
• /
• pp.219-233
• /
• 1995

A non-stationary multivariate model is selected in which the mean and variance of rainfall are not temporally or spatially constant. And the rainfall prediction system is constructed which uses the recursive estimation algorithm, Kalman filter, to estimate system states and parameters of rainfall model simulataneously. The on-line, real-time, multivariate short-term, rainfall prediction for multi-stations and lead-times is carried out through the estimation of non-stationary mean and variance by the storm counter method, the normalized residual covariance and rainfall speed. The results of rainfall prediction system model agree with those generated by non-stationary multivariate model. The longer the lead time is, the larger the root mean square error becomes and the further the model efficiency decreases form 1. Thus, the accuracy of the rainfall prediction decreases as the lead time gets longer. Also it shows that the mean obtained by storm counter method constitutes the most significant part of the rainfall structure.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
• /
• v.12 no.3
• /
• pp.244-253
• /
• 2013

In industries, shipping is an important issue in improving the forecasting accuracy of sales. This paper introduces a hybrid method and plural methods are compared. Focusing the equation of exponential smoothing method (ESM) that is equivalent to (1, 1) order autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model equation, a new method of estimating the smoothing constant in ESM had been proposed previously by us which satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. Generally, the smoothing constant is selected arbitrarily. However, this paper utilizes the above stated theoretical solution. Firstly, we make estimation of ARMA model parameter and then estimate the smoothing constant. Thus, theoretical solution is derived in a simple way and it may be utilized in various fields. Furthermore, combining the trend removing method with this method, we aim to improve forecasting accuracy. This method is executed in the following method. Trend removing by the combination of linear and 2nd order nonlinear function and 3rd order nonlinear function is executed to the original production data of two kinds of bread. Genetic algorithm is utilized to search the optimal weight for the weighting parameters of linear and nonlinear function. For comparison, the monthly trend is removed after that. Theoretical solution of smoothing constant of ESM is calculated for both of the monthly trend removing data and the non-monthly trend removing data. Then forecasting is executed on these data. The new method shows that it is useful for the time series that has various trend characteristics and has rather strong seasonal trend. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.43 no.1
• /
• pp.131-152
• /
• 2018

This study evaluates the potential by Chines region for entry of Korean logistics companies and retailers. The variables affecting e-commerce business and retail sales concerning the Chinese omni-channel market were extracted from a thorough literature review. Empirical analyses for variables based on 31 regions in China were performed. Results show that e-commerce is affected by disposable income and internet traffic and that retail sales are affected by urban and rural population, GRDP and urbanization. In addition, we performed variance decomposition analysis in order to estimate responses of logistics GDP(transport, storage and communication) and the number of Chinese mobile users. Exogenous shocks to logistics GDP and the number of mobile phone users play a strong role in explaining the forecast error of express service variance over time. Based on our results, we suggest 7 potential regions(Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Beijing, Shanghai, Liaoning and Shandong) as well as managerial implications for entry into China for logistics companies and retailers.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
• /
• v.56 no.2
• /
• pp.161-171
• /
• 2023

The medium-large cladoceran species Simocephalus spp. predominantly occur in habitats with developed aquatic vegetation. Accordingly, due to Simocephalus' high contribution to zooplankton community biomass in the lake's littoral zone and wetland habitats, estimating their biomass is important to understand the matter cycling based on biological interactions within the aquatic food web. In this study, we reviewed the length-weight regression equations used previously to estimate Simocephalus biomass, directly measured S. serrulatus' body specification (length, width and area) and their biomass(dry weight) using instruments such as a microscopic digital camera and a microscale, and performed regression analysis between each other. When S. serrulatus biomass was estimated using the equation (Kawabata and Urabe, 1998) presented in 『Biomonitoring Survey and Assessment Manual』, Korea, errors between estimates and measures were relatively large compared to the S. serrulatus species-specific biomass estimate equation developed by Lemke and Benke (2003). In addition, both equations showed not only increasing trends in error (estimate-measure) with increasing S. serrulatus' body length, but also in error variance among similar-sized individuals. The results of regression analysis with dry weight by body specifications indicated that the most appropriate equation for estimating the biomass of S. serrulatus was derived from the width-dry weight exponential regression equation (R²=0.9555). The review and development study of such species-specific biomass estimation equations for zooplankton can be used as a tool to understand their role and function in aquatic ecosystem food webs.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
• /
• v.8 no.3
• /
• pp.1105-1118
• /
• 2014

In this paper, a new reversible data hiding method based on a dual binary tree of embedding levels is proposed. Four neighborhood pixels in the upper, below, left and right of each pixel are used as reference pixels to estimate local complexity for deciding embeddable and non-embeddable pixels. The proposed method does not need to record pixels that might cause underflow, overflow or unsuitable for embedment. This can reduce the size of location map and release more space for payload. Experimental results show that the proposed method is more effective in increasing payload and improving image quality than some recently proposed methods.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
• /
• 2005.06a
• /
• pp.1682-1685
• /
• 2005

System algorithms estimated by deterministic input may occur the error between predicted and actual output. Especially, actual system can't predict the exact outputs due to uncertainty and tolerance of input parameters. A single output to a set of inputs has a limited value without the variation. Hence, we should consider various scatters caused by the load assessment, material characteristics, stress analysis and manufacturing methods in order to perform the robust design or estimate the reliability of structure. The system design with uncertainty should perform the probabilistic structural optimization with the statistical response and the reliability. This method calculated the probability distributions of the characteristics such as stress by combining stress analysis, response surface methodology and Monte-Carlo Method and got the probabilistic sensitivity. The sensitivity of structural response with respect to inconstant design variables was estimated by fracture probability. Therefore, this paper proposed the probabilistic reliability design method for fracture of uncorved freight end beam and the design criteria by fracture probability.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.17 no.1
• /
• pp.11-17
• /
• 2002

The purpose of this study was to present the method to choose the optimization machining condition for the wire electric machine. This was completed by examining the ever-changing quality of the material and by improving the function of the wire electric discharge machine. Precision metal mold products and the unmanned wire electric discharge machining system were used and then applied in industrial fields. This experiment uses the wire electric discharge machine with brass wire electrode of 0.25mm. To measure the precision of the machining surface, average values are obtained from 3 samples of measures of center-line average roughness by using a third dimension gauge and a stylus surface roughness gauge. In this experiment, we changed no-node voltage to 7 and 9, pulse-on-time to $6{\mu}s,\;8{\mu}s$ and $10{\mu}s$, pulse-off-time to $8{\mu}s,\;10{\mu}s$ and $13{\mu}s$, and experimented on wire tension at room temperature by 1000gf, 1200gf, and 1400gf, respectively.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.263-274
• /
• 2010

Business survey index(BSI) is an economic forecasting index made on the basis of the past achievement of the company and enterpriser's plan and decision for the future. Even the index is very popular in economic situations, only a little research result is known to the public. In the paper we investigate statistical properties of BSI. We define population BSI in the finite population and estimate it unbiasedly. Also we derive the variance of the estimated BSI and its unbiased estimator. In addition, confidence interval of the estimated BSI is proposed. We asserte that confidence interval of the estimated BSI is more reasonable than the relative standard error.

• The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
• /
• v.19 no.4
• /
• pp.16-22
• /
• 2000

In order to predict the performance and the usefulness of the narrow-band underwater acoustic measurement system at design stage, whose error variance is not clearly described, in this study a boundary equation to estimate the measurement accuracy is proposed based on the confidency as SNR variation. The boundary is presented as a function of SNR and the number of samples. In this paper, the measurement performance for narrow-band signal is simulated by the proposed boundary equation and the results are reviewed in the biased noise condition and separately in the background noise rejected condition.