• Title/Summary/Keyword: Error Correction Term

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A Spatial Interpolation Model for Daily Minimum Temperature over Mountainous Regions (산악지대의 일 최저기온 공간내삽모형)

  • Yun Jin-Il;Choi Jae-Yeon;Yoon Young-Kwan;Chung Uran
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.175-182
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    • 2000
  • Spatial interpolation of daily temperature forecasts and observations issued by public weather services is frequently required to make them applicable to agricultural activities and modeling tasks. In contrast to the long term averages like monthly normals, terrain effects are not considered in most spatial interpolations for short term temperatures. This may cause erroneous results in mountainous regions where the observation network hardly covers full features of the complicated terrain. We developed a spatial interpolation model for daily minimum temperature which combines inverse distance squared weighting and elevation difference correction. This model uses a time dependent function for 'mountain slope lapse rate', which can be derived from regression analyses of the station observations with respect to the geographical and topographical features of the surroundings including the station elevation. We applied this model to interpolation of daily minimum temperature over the mountainous Korean Peninsula using 63 standard weather station data. For the first step, a primitive temperature surface was interpolated by inverse distance squared weighting of the 63 point data. Next, a virtual elevation surface was reconstructed by spatially interpolating the 63 station elevation data and subtracted from the elevation surface of a digital elevation model with 1 km grid spacing to obtain the elevation difference at each grid cell. Final estimates of daily minimum temperature at all the grid cells were obtained by applying the calculated daily lapse rate to the elevation difference and adjusting the inverse distance weighted estimates. Independent, measured data sets from 267 automated weather station locations were used to calculate the estimation errors on 12 dates, randomly selected one for each month in 1999. Analysis of 3 terms of estimation errors (mean error, mean absolute error, and root mean squared error) indicates a substantial improvement over the inverse distance squared weighting.

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A Study on Price Discovery Function of Japan's Frozen Shrimp Future Market (일본 냉동새우 선물시장의 가격발견기능에 관한 연구)

  • Nam Soo-Hyun
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.37 no.1 s.70
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    • pp.95-110
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    • 2006
  • Japan's frozen shrimp future market is the only fisheries future commodity market in the world. This empirical study examines the lead and lag relationship between Japan frozen shrimp spot and future markets using the daily prices from August 1, 2002 to December 31, 2005. Frozen shrimp future contract is listed on Japan Kansai Commodities Exchange. Japan imports approximately 250,000 tons of frozen shrimp annually, of which just under 70,000 tons, nearly 30%, are black tiger shrimp. Approximately 90% of black tiger shrimp are caught in Indonesia, India, Thailand and Vietnam, and the two largest consumers of these shrimp are Japan and the U.S.A. Kansai Commodities Exchange adopts the India black tiger shrimp as standard future commodity. We use unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, Vector autoregressive analysis and Impulse response analysis. However, considering the long - term relationships between the level variables of frozen shrimp spot and futures, we introduced Vector Error Correction Model. We find that the price change of frozen shrimp futures with next 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 month maturity have a strong predictive power to the change of frozen shrimp spot and the change of frozen shrimp spot also have a predictive power to the change of frozen shrimp with next 1, 2, 3 month maturity. But, the explanatory power of the frozen shrimp futures is relatively greater than that of frozen shrimp spot.

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Design Optimization Using Two-Point Diagonal Quadratic Approximation(TDQA) (이점 대각 이차 근사화(TDQA) 기법을 적용한 최적설계)

  • Kim, Min-Soo;Kim, Jong-Rip;Choi, Dong-Hoon
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2001.06c
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    • pp.386-391
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    • 2001
  • This paper presents a new two-point approximation method based on the exponential intervening variable. To avoid the lack of definition of the conventional exponential intervening variables due to zero- or negative-valued design variables the shifting level into each exponential intervening variable is introduced. Then a new quadratic approximation, whose Hessian matrix has only diagonal elements of different values, is proposed in terms of these intervening variables. These diagonal elements are computed in a closed form, which correct the typical error in the approximate gradient of the TANA series due to the lack of definition of exponential type intervening variables and their incomplete second-order terms. Also, a correction coefficient is multiplied to the pre-determined quadratic term to match the value of approximate function with that of the original function at the previous point. Finally, the authors developed a sequential approximate optimizer, solved several typical design problems used in the literature and compared these optimization results with those of TANA-3. These comparisons show that the proposed method gives more efficient and reliable results than TANA-3.

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A Model for Software Maintenance Cost Estimation based on Productivity (생산성 기반의 소프트웨어 유지보수 대가산정 모델)

  • Bae, Joon-Soo
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.17 no.spc
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    • pp.122-130
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    • 2004
  • Since the cost of software maintenance occupies about 50~75% in a general successful organization, the software maintenance plays an important role in software life cycle. In particular, if the managed system needs to be operated in a long term or the system is very large and complex, then the maintenance is especially more important. Software maintenance is defined as software modification activities after customer delivery, such as improvement of performance or functionality, error correction, adaptation to environmental changes, etc. In this paper, software cost estimation models are proposed, that is based on productivity of manpower in maintenance projects. In order to do this, the activities of maintenance are classified into function change, non-function change, user support and application operation. The proposed models are constructed and verified based on the real size and cost information of projects in the real world. The approach in this paper is to discriminate the heterogeneous activities in maintenance projects, and then to calculate the respective cost of each discriminated activity. By using the proposed models, the total cost of maintenance project is summed from the costs of four activities. In addition the number of conflicts between owner and order receiver about the amount of cost will be reduced and the reasonable cost estimation system will be established.

The Effect of External Shocks on Food Price in Indonesia: A VECM Analysis

  • Nurvitasari, Ari;Nasrudin, Nasrudin
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.8 no.7
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    • pp.7-12
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - This research examines the short-run and long-run effect of external shocks (oil price and exchange rate) on domestic food price in Indonesia. Research design, data, and methodology - Three variables are used in this research. The variables are food price index, Rupiah's exchange rate of Indonesia, and crude oil price from 1998 until 2015 using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Results - The increasing of oil price and the depreciation of Rupiah's rate push the domestic food price in long-run, but do not impact significantly in short- term. The response of food price to oil prices shock and exchange rate shock are positive and persistent throughout the entire sample period. The exchange rate and oil price shocks have a small proportion explaining for the fluctuations of food price index but increasing over time. Conclusions - The policymaker should concern on solving the problem of oil price increase and depreciation of exchange rate on Indonesia's food price as they are important factors that can affect the price stability. The government should not rely on food imports because the price is strongly influenced by the movements in the exchange rate.

Does Asymmetric Relation Exist between Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment in Bangladesh? Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL Analysis

  • QAMRUZZAMAN, Md.;KARIM, Salma;WEI, Jianguo
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.115-128
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    • 2019
  • The study aims to investigate the pattern of relationships such as symmetric or asymmetric, between exchange rate and foreign direct investment in Bangladesh by applying Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL. In this study, we employed quarterly data for the period of 1974Q1 to 2016Q4. Data were collected and aggregated from various sources namely, Bangladesh Economic Review published by Ministry of Finance and statistical yearbook published by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and an annual report published by Bangladesh Bank. The relationship between exchange rate and FDI inflows attract immense interest in the recent periods, especially for developing countries' perspective. The results of the study ascertain the long run relationship between FDI, exchange rate, monetary policy, and fiscal policy. Considering the asymmetric assumption, the findings from NARDL confirm the existence of a long-run asymmetric relationship in the empirical equation. In the long run, it is observed that positive change that is the appreciation of exchange rate against USD decrease FDI inflows and negative shocks results in grater inflows of FDI, however, the positive shocks produce higher intensity that negative shocks in Exchange rate. For directional causality, the coefficients of error correction term confirm long-run causality, in particular, bidirectional causality unveiled between FDI and exchange rate.

Correlation of Convective Boiling Heat Transfer in a Horizontal Tube for Pure Refrigerants and Refrigerant Mixtures (순수 및 혼합냉매의 유동증발 열전달 상관식)

  • Shin, J.Y.;Kim, M.S.;Ro, S.T.
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.254-266
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    • 1996
  • Boiling heat transfer coefficients of pure refrigerants(R22, R32, R125, R134a, R290, and R600a) and refrigerant mixtures(R32/R134a and R290/R600a) are measured experimentally and compared with several correlations. Convective boiling term of Chen's correlation predicts experimental data for pure refrigerants fairly well(root-mean-square error of 12.1% for the quality range over 0.2). An analysis of convective boiling heat transfer of refrigerant mixtures is performed for an annular flow to study degradation of heat transfer. Annular flow is the subject of this analysis because a great portion of the evaporator in refrigeration or air conditioning system is known to be in the annular flow regime. Mass transfer effect due to composition difference between liquid and vapor phases, which is considered as a driving force for mass transfer at interface, is included in this analysis. Correction factor $C_F$ is introduced to the correlation for the pure substances through annular flow analysis to apply the correlation to the mixtures. The flow boiling heat transfer coefficients are calculated using the correlation considering nucleate boilling effect in the low quality region and mass transfer effect for nonzazeotropic refrigerant mixtures.

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Analysis of Optical Fibers with Graded-Index Profile By a Combination of Modified Airy Functions and WKB Solutions (Airy 함수와 WKB 해를 이용한 언덕형 굴절율 분포를 갖는 광섬유 해석)

  • Jeong, Min-Seop;Kim, Yeong-Mun;Kim, Chang-Min
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SD
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.28-37
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    • 2000
  • An almost exact eigenvalue equation for optical fibers with graded-index profile Is derived mathematically based on a combination of the modified Airy functions and the WKB trial solution. By applying proper boundary conditions, a phase shift correction term $\delta$ is found out which improves the inherent error problems of the conventional WKB method. It is shown through computer simulations that results of the derived eigenvalue equation are in excellent agreement with those of the finite-element method.

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ERRATUM: 'LONG-TERM X-RAY VARIABILITIES OF SEYFERT GALAXY MCG-2-58-22: GRADUAL DECREAES AND FLARES' (JKAS, 35, 1, [2002])

  • CHOI CHUL-SUNG;DOTANI TADAYASU;CHANG HEON- YOUNG;YI INSU
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.73-73
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    • 2003
  • Proof correction to the equation in the third paragraph of the DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION has not been carried faithfully to the published version of the paper. The corrected equation should read ${\approx}10^{-3}\;M_8^4/^3(N_{\ast}/10^6\;pc^{-3})({\sigma}/300 km\;s^{-l})^{-l}(r/r_t)\;yr^{-1}$, where Ms is the mass of the SMBH in units of $10^8\;M_{\bigodot}$, $\sigma$ is the virial velocity of the stars, $r_t$ is the tidal radius of the SMBH. This estimates the frequency that a star would pass within a sphere with the radius r from the SMBH, rather than the frequency of the tidal disruption event. Therefore, it increases with the mass of the SMBH. However, the loss cone effect should also be taken into account, which reduces the actual event rate. Here, we adopted a factor of one hundred to consider the deficiency from the isotrophic rate. The authors sincerely regret this error.

Efficient Mechanical System Optimization Using Two-Point Diagonal Quadratic Approximation in the Nonlinear Intervening Variable Space

  • Park, Dong-Hoon;Kim, Min-Soo;Kim, Jong-Rip;Jeon, Jae-Young
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • v.15 no.9
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    • pp.1257-1267
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    • 2001
  • For efficient mechanical system optimization, a new two-point approximation method is presented. Unlike the conventional two-point approximation methods such as TPEA, TANA, TANA-1, TANA-2 and TANA-3, this introduces the shifting level into each exponential intervening variable to avoid the lack of definition of the conventional exponential intervening variables due to zero-or negative-valued design variables. Then a new quadratic approximation whose Hessian matrix has only diagonal elements of different values is proposed in terms of these shifted exponential intervening variables. These diagonal elements are determined in a closed form that corrects the typical error in the approximate gradient of the TANA series due to the lack of definition of exponential type intervening variables and their incomplete second-order terms. Also, a correction coefficient is multiplied to the pre-determined quadratic term to match the value of approximate function with that of the previous point. Finally, in order to show the numerical performance of the proposed method, a sequential approximate optimizer is developed and applied to solve six typical design problems. These optimization results are compared with those of TANA-3. These comparisons show that the proposed method gives more efficient and reliable results than TANA-3.

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