• Title/Summary/Keyword: Epidemiological model

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An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Analysis of Vaccination against Highly Pathogenic Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) in Thua Thien Hue Province, Vietnam

  • Zhang, Haifeng;Kono, Hiroichi;Kubota, Satoko
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.27 no.10
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    • pp.1499-1512
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    • 2014
  • The purposes of this study are to assess pig farmers' preference for highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) vaccine, and estimate the cost and benefit of PRRS vaccination in Vietnam. This study employed an integrated epidemiological and economic analysis which combined susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model, choice experiment (CE) and cost-benefit analysis (CBA) together. The result of SIR model showed the basic reproduction number ($R_0$) of PRRS transmission in this study is 1.3, consequently, the optimal vaccination percentage is 26%. The results of CE in this study indicate that Vietnam pig farmers are showing a high preference for the PRRS vaccine. However, their mean willingness to pay is lower than the potential cost of PRRS vaccine. It can be considered to be one of the reasons that the PRRS vaccination ratio is still low in Vietnam. The results of CBA specified from the whole society's point of view (Social perspective), the benefits of PRRS vaccination are 2.3 to 4.5 times larger than the costs. To support policy making for increasing the PRRS vaccination proportion, this study indicates two ways to increase the vaccination proportion: i) decrease vaccine price by providing a subsidy, ii) provide compensation of culling only for PRRS vaccinated pigs.

Cost Optimization in SIS Model of Worm Infection

  • Kim, Jong-Hyun;Radhakrishnan, Sridhar;Jang, Jong-Soo
    • ETRI Journal
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    • v.28 no.5
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    • pp.692-695
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    • 2006
  • Recently, there has been a constant barrage of worms over the Internet. Besides threatening network security, these worms create an enormous economic burden in terms of loss of productivity not only for the victim hosts, but also for other hosts, as these worms create unnecessary network traffic. Further, measures taken to filter these worms at the router level incur additional network delays because of the extra burden placed on the routers. To develop appropriate tools for thwarting the quick spread of worms, researchers are trying to understand the behavior of worm propagation with the aid of epidemiological models. In this study, we present an optimization model that takes into account infection and treatment costs. Using this model we can determine the level of treatment to be applied for a given rate of infection spread.

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Changes in Co-Occurrence of Smoking and Harmful Drinking among Youth: a Study from the Chi Linh Demographic - Epidemiological Surveillance System in Vietnam, 2006-2013

  • Duong, Minh Duc;Le, Thi Vui;Nguyen, Thuy Quynh;Hoang, Van Minh
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.17 no.sup1
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2016
  • Smoking and harmful drinking dramatically increase health risks but little is known about their cooccurrence and factors that influence this co-habit, limiting development and implementation of appropriately targeted prevention interventions. This study was conducted among youth aged 10-24 years old in the Chi Linh Demographic - Epidemiological Surveillance System (CHILILAB DESS). The total numbers in the first, second and third rounds in 2006, 2009 and 2013 were 12,406, 10,211, and 7,654, respectively. A random-effects logit model controlling for both time-variant and time-invariant variables was applied to explore factors associated with current smoking, harmful drinking, and occurrence of smoking and harmful drinking together. We found dramatically increasing trends in current smoking, harmful drinking and co-occurrence among youth. Our results indicate similar health problems among youth in peri-urban areas in Vietnam. Demographic characteristics (older age, being male, being unmarried, and having informal work) appeared to be predictors for smoking and drinking behaviour. Besides, peer and family members had significant influence on smoking, whereas having a close-friend who was smoking was the most important variable. The results suggested that smoking and harmful drinking should not be solved with separate, stand-alone interventions but rather with integrated efforts.

EXPERIMENTAL AND EPIDEMIOLOGICAL EVIDENCE FOR NON-ORGAN SPECIFIC CANCER PREVENTIVE EFFECT OF KOREAN GINSENG AND IDENTIFICATION OF ACTIVE COMPOUNDS

  • Yun, Taik-Koo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Toxicology Conference
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    • 2001.10a
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    • pp.17-18
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    • 2001
  • Panax ginseng C. A. Meyer has been the most highly recognized medicinal herb in the Orient. The prolonged administration of red ginseng extract significantly inhibited the incidence of hepatoma and also proliferation of pulmonary tumors induced by aflatoxin B$_1$and urethane. Statistically significant anticarcinogenic effects were observed in powders and extract of 6 year-dried fresh ginseng, 5 and 6 year-white ginseng and 4, 5 and 6 year-red ginseng by 9 week medium-term anticarcinogenicity test using benzo[a]pyrene (Yun's model).(omitted)

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A generalized model for categorical data from epidemiological studies (질병의 범주적 자료에 대한 통계적 분석모형)

  • 최재성
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 1996
  • This paper discusses the effectiveness of an infection rate under a certain disease on an immunity rate by a protective inoculation. A sequence of dependense models concerning the infection rate is derived by defining conditionally nested binary random variables for the analysis of polytomous data with hierarchical response scale. Maximum likelihood estimates based on the marginal log-likelihood functin are obtained numerically in the Nelder and Mead's(1965) simplex method.

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GLOBAL STABILITY OF A TUBERCULOSIS MODEL WITH n LATENT CLASSES

  • Moualeu, Dany Pascal;Bowong, Samuel;Emvudu, Yves
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • v.29 no.5_6
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    • pp.1097-1115
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    • 2011
  • We consider the global stability of a general tuberculosis model with two differential infectivity, n classes of latent individuals and mass action incidence. This system exhibits the traditional threshold behavior. There is always a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium state. Depending on the value of the basic reproduction ratio $\mathcal{R}_0$, this state can be either endemic ($\mathcal{R}_0$ > 1), or infection-free ($\mathcal{R}_0{\leq}1$). The global stability of this model is derived through the use of Lyapunov stability theory and LaSalle's invariant set theorem. Both the analytical results and numerical simulations suggest that patients should be strongly encouraged to complete their treatment and sputum examination.

ANALYSIS OF A DELAY PREY-PREDATOR MODEL WITH DISEASE IN THE PREY SPECIES ONLY

  • Zhou, Xueyong;Shi, Xiangyun;Song, Xinyu
    • Journal of the Korean Mathematical Society
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    • v.46 no.4
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    • pp.713-731
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, a three-dimensional eco-epidemiological model with delay is considered. The stability of the two equilibria, the existence of Hopf bifurcation and the permanence are investigated. It is found that Hopf bifurcation occurs when the delay ${\tau}$ passes though a sequence of critical values. The estimation of the length of delay to preserve stability has also been calculated. Numerical simulation with a hypothetical set of data has been done to support the analytical findings.

Genetic Epidemiological Analysis of Esophageal Cancer in High-incidence Areas of China

  • Wang, Kai-Juan;Yang, Jun-Xia;Shi, Jia-Chen;Deng, Song-Yuan;Cao, Xiao-Qin;Song, Chun-Hua;Wang, Peng
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.22
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    • pp.9859-9863
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    • 2014
  • Genetic epidemiological studies have shown that genetic susceptibility to esophageal cancer (EC) is an important cause of its high incidence within families in some areas of China. The purpose of this study was to obtain evidence of a genetic basis of EC in Xin-an and Xin-xiang counties in China. Familial aggregation and complex segregation analyses were performed of 79 EC families in these counties. The heritability of EC was examined using Falconer's method and complex segregation analysis was conducted with the SEGREG program in Statistical Analysis for Genetic Epidemiology (SAGE version 5.3.1). The results showed that the distribution of EC in families did not fit well into a binomial distribution. The heritability of EC among first-degree and second-degree relatives was $67.0{\pm}7.31%$ and $43.1%{\pm}9.80%$, respectively, and the summing up powered heritability was $53.2{\pm}6.74%$. The segregation ratio was 0.045. Complex segregation analysis showed that the genetic model of EC was additive. The current results provide evidence for an inherited propensity to EC in certain high-risk groups in China, and support efforts to identify the genes that confer susceptibility to this disease.

Numerical Implementation of Representative Mobile Phone Models for Epidemiological Studies

  • Lee, Ae-Kyoung;Yoon, Yonghyun;Lee, Sooyung;Lee, Byungje;Hong, Seon-Eui;Choi, Hyung-Do;Cardis, Elisabeth
    • Journal of electromagnetic engineering and science
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.87-99
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    • 2016
  • This paper describes an implementation method and the results of numerical mobile phone models representing real phone models that have been released on the Korean market since 2002. The aim is to estimate the electromagnetic absorption in the human brain for case-control studies to investigate health risks related to mobile phone use. Specific absorption rate (SAR) compliance test reports about commercial phone models were collected and classified in terms of elements such as the external body shape, the antenna, and the frequency band. The design criteria of a numerical phone model representing each type of phone group are as follows. The outer dimensions of the phone body are equal to the average dimensions of all commercial models with the same shape. The distance and direction of the maximum SAR from the earpiece and the area above -3 dB of the maximum SAR are fitted to achieve the average obtained by measuring the SAR distributions of the corresponding commercial models in a flat phantom. Spatial peak 1-g SAR values in the cheek and tilt positions against the specific anthropomorphic mannequin phantom agree with average data on all of the same type of commercial models. Second criterion was applied to only a few types of models because not many commercial models were available. The results show that, with the exception of one model, the implemented numerical phone models meet criteria within 30%.

Development of a Daily Epidemiological Model of Rice Blast Tailored for Seasonal Disease Early Warning in South Korea

  • Kim, Kwang-Hyung;Jung, Imgook
    • The Plant Pathology Journal
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.406-417
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    • 2020
  • Early warning services for crop diseases are valuable when they provide timely forecasts that farmers can utilize to inform their disease management decisions. In South Korea, collaborative disease controls that utilize unmanned aerial vehicles are commonly performed for most rice paddies. However, such controls could benefit from seasonal disease early warnings with a lead time of a few months. As a first step to establish a seasonal disease early warning service using seasonal climate forecasts, we developed the EPIRICE Daily Risk Model for rice blast by extracting and modifying the core infection algorithms of the EPIRICE model. The daily risk scores generated by the EPIRICE Daily Risk Model were successfully converted into a realistic and measurable disease value through statistical analyses with 13 rice blast incidence datasets, and subsequently validated using the data from another rice blast experiment conducted in Icheon, South Korea, from 1974 to 2000. The sensitivity of the model to air temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation input variables was examined, and the relative humidity resulted in the most sensitive response from the model. Overall, our results indicate that the EPIRICE Daily Risk Model can be used to produce potential disease risk predictions for the seasonal disease early warning service.