• 응용통계연구
• /
• 제28권2호
• /
• pp.295-308
• /
• 2015

지난 수십 년 동안 유전형 기술(genotyping technology)의 발달로 개인별 유전자 정보를 얻기 위해 필요한 비용이 감소함에 따라, 다양한 인간 질병의 원인 유전자를 규명하기 위한 많은 유전역학 연구들이 진행되어 왔다. 예를 들어 전장유전체관련분석(genome-wide association studies)은 수백 개에 이르는 표현형(phenotypes)에 대하여 수천 개에 이르는 원인유전자를 규명하였다. 유전체 자료의 홍수로 인하여 대규모 유전체 자료를 분석할 수 있는 다양한 분석 알고리즘에 개발되었으며, 특별히 선형혼합모형은 유전율의 추정부터 관련분석(association studies)에 이르기까지 유전역학 연구에서 광범위하게 활용되고 방법론이었다. 본 논문에서는 유전역학 연구에 있어 빈번하게 활용되는 선형혼합모형의 활용 사례를 나열하고, 각 분석 모형 별 추정치들의 생물학적 의미를 논하고자 한다.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
• /
• 제14권4호
• /
• pp.2643-2647
• /
• 2013

Background: Despite anti-smoking campaigns, smoking prevalence among Thai males aged 30 or older is high, at around 50%. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between smoking and mortality in a rural Thai community. Materials and Methods: Subjects enrolled into the Khon Kaen cohort study between 1990 and 2001 were followed up for their vital status until $16^{th}$ March 2012. The death resource was from the Bureau of Policy and Strategy, Ministry of Interior, Thailand. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyse the association between smoking and death, controlling for age, education level and alcohol drinking, and confidence intervals were calculated using the floating risk method. Results: The study recruited 5,962 male subjects, of whom 1,396 died during a median 13.5 years of follow-up. Current smokers were more likely to die than never smokers after controlling for age, education level and alcohol drinking (HR, 95%CI: 1.41, 1.32-1.51), and the excess mortality was greatest for lung cancer (HR, 95%CI: 3.51, 2.65-4.66). However, there was no increased risk with increasing dose of tobacco, and no difference in risk between smokers of yamuan (hand-rolled cigarettes) and manufactured tobacco. Conclusion: Mortality from cancer, particularly lung cancer, and from all causes combined is dependent on smoking status among men in rural Thailand, but the relative risks are lower than have been reported from studies in high income countries, where the tobacco epidemic is more established.

• 한국측량학회지
• /
• 제31권3호
• /
• pp.209-219
• /
• 2013

역학 모델은 질병 확산에 대한 시뮬레이션 및 관련 방역대책을 수립하는데 유용하며, 개체들의 접촉을 통해 전파되는 질병의 공간 확산에 대한 자세한 이해를 가능하게 한다. 이 연구에서는 공간에서 개체 간의 상호작용에 의한 결과로 구제역 전염병의 확산을 시뮬레이션하기 위해 GIS와 통합된 행위자 기반 공간 모델을 제안하고자 한다. 설계된 모델은 모집단, 시간, 공간이라는 세 요소를 고려하여 축산장 간의 간접접촉을 묘사하였다. 모집단의 역학관계는 2010년 경상북도 안동시에서 발생한 구제역 사례를 기준으로 하였으며, 도로를 주행하는 차량에 의한 간접접촉으로 전염병이 전파하는 것으로 설계하였다. 확산 모델은 구제역 전파 확률, 질병에 대한 여러 상태, 질병의 확산 시간, 감염률, 잠복기 및 기타 매개변수 간의 관계를 수식으로 표현하였다. 모델을 이용하여 구제역 발생 상황을 예측하면서 다양한 시나리오를 적용해서 모의실험하였다. 구제역 발생 상황에서 방역 전략을 선정하기 위해 제시된 방법을 이용하여 방역조치를 다양하게 실험하는 것은 구제역 확산을 통제하는 데 중요한 역할을 할 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
• /
• 제7권3호
• /
• pp.925-940
• /
• 2000

The spatial spread of a disease in an SIRS epidemic model with immunity imparted by subclinical infection on a population has been considered. The incidence rate of infection and the rate of immunization are both of nonlinear type. The dynamics of the infectious disease and its endemicity in local and global sense have been investigated.

• 대한간호학회지
• /
• 제46권2호
• /
• pp.305-314
• /
• 2016

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine quality of life (QOL) related factors in Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) members based on PRECEDE Model. Methods: A cross sectional survey was conducted with participants (N=203) from AA meeting in 11 alcohol counsel centers all over South Korea. Data were collected using a specially designed questionnaire based on the PRECEDE model and including QOL, epidemiological factors (including depression and perceived health status), behavioral factors (continuous abstinence and physical health status and practice), predisposing factors (abstinence self-efficacy and self-esteem), reinforcing factors (social capital and family functioning), and enabling factors. Data were analyzed using t-test, one way ANOVA, Tukey HSD test and hierarchical multiple regression analysis with SPSS (ver. 21.0). Results: Of the educational diagnostic variables, self-esteem (${\beta}=.23$), family functioning (${\beta}=.12$), abstinence self-efficacy (${\beta}=.12$) and social capital (${\beta}=.11$) were strong influential factors in AA members' QOL. In addition, epidemiological diagnostic variables such as depression (${\beta}=-.44$) and perceived health status (${\beta}=.35$) were the main factors in QOL. Also, physical health status and practice (${\beta}=.106$), one of behavioral diagnostic variables was a beneficial factor in QOL. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis showed the determinant variables accounted for 44.0% of the variation in QOL (F=25.76, p<.001). Conclusion: The finding of the study can be used as a framework for planning interventions in order to promote the quality of life of AA members. It is necessary to develop nursing intervention strategies for strengthening educational and epidemiological diagnostic variables in order to improve AA members' QOL.

• 한국농림기상학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국농림기상학회 2017년도 추계 학술발표초록집
• /
• pp.34-34
• /
• 2017

• Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
• /
• 제47권1호
• /
• pp.1-5
• /
• 2009

A mathematical model for transmission of schistosomes is useful to predict effects of various control measures on suppression of these parasites. This review focuses on epidemiological and environmental factors in Schistosoma japonicum and Schistosoma mekongi infections and recent advances in mathematical models of Schistosoma transmission.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제29권5호
• /
• pp.499-512
• /
• 2022

Intervention measures have been implemented worldwide to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. The COVID-19 outbreak has occured in several waves of infection, so this paper is divided into three groups, namely those countries who have passed the pandemic period, those countries who are still experiencing a single-wave pandemic, and those countries who are experiencing a multi-wave pandemic. The purpose of this study is to develop a multi-wave Richards model with several changepoint detection methods so as to obtain more accurate prediction results, especially for the multi-wave case. We investigated epidemiological trends in different countries from January 2020 to October 2021 to determine the temporal changes during the epidemic with respect to the intervention strategy used. In this article, we adjust the daily cumulative epidemiological data for COVID-19 using the logistic growth model and the multi-wave Richards curve development model. The changepoint detection methods used include the interpolation method, the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) method, and the Binary Segmentation (BS) method. The results of the analysis using 9 countries show that the Richards model development can be used to analyze multi-wave data using changepoint detection so that the initial data used for prediction on the last wave can be determined precisely. The changepoint used is the coincident changepoint generated by the PELT and BS methods. The interpolation method is only used to find out how many pandemic waves have occurred in given a country. Several waves have been identified and can better describe the data. Our results can find the peak of the pandemic and when it will end in each country, both for a single-wave pandemic and a multi-wave pandemic.

• Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
• /
• 제26권8호
• /
• pp.1398-1403
• /
• 2016

The simultaneous detection and accurate identification of hepatitis A virus (HAV) is critical in food safety and epidemiological studies to prevent the spread of HAV outbreaks. Towards this goal, a one-step duplex reverse-transcription (RT)-PCR method was developed targeting the VP1/P2B and VP3/VP1 regions of the HAV genome for the qualitative detection of HAV. An HAV RT-qPCR standard curve was produced for the quantification of HAV RNA. The detection limit of the duplex RT-PCR method was 2.8 × 10¹ copies of HAV. The PCR products enabled HAV genotyping analysis through DNA sequencing, which can be applied for epidemiological investigations. The ability of this duplex RT-PCR method to detect HAV was evaluated with HAV-spiked samples of fresh lettuce, frozen strawberries, and oysters. The limit of detection of the one-step duplex RT-PCR for each food model was 9.4 × 10² copies/20 g fresh lettuce, 9.7 × 10³ copies/20 g frozen strawberries, and 4.1 × 10³ copies/1.5 g oysters. Use of a one-step duplex RT-PCR method has advantages such as shorter time, decreased cost, and decreased labor owing to the single amplification reaction instead of four amplifications necessary for nested RT-PCR.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
• /
• 제27권10호
• /
• pp.1499-1512
• /
• 2014

The purposes of this study are to assess pig farmers' preference for highly pathogenic porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) vaccine, and estimate the cost and benefit of PRRS vaccination in Vietnam. This study employed an integrated epidemiological and economic analysis which combined susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model, choice experiment (CE) and cost-benefit analysis (CBA) together. The result of SIR model showed the basic reproduction number ($R_0$) of PRRS transmission in this study is 1.3, consequently, the optimal vaccination percentage is 26%. The results of CE in this study indicate that Vietnam pig farmers are showing a high preference for the PRRS vaccine. However, their mean willingness to pay is lower than the potential cost of PRRS vaccine. It can be considered to be one of the reasons that the PRRS vaccination ratio is still low in Vietnam. The results of CBA specified from the whole society's point of view (Social perspective), the benefits of PRRS vaccination are 2.3 to 4.5 times larger than the costs. To support policy making for increasing the PRRS vaccination proportion, this study indicates two ways to increase the vaccination proportion: i) decrease vaccine price by providing a subsidy, ii) provide compensation of culling only for PRRS vaccinated pigs.