• 제목/요약/키워드: Epidemic Simulation

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INTERVENTION STRATEGY FOR REDUCING ADOLESCENT SMOKING

  • BYUL NIM KIM;CHUNYOUNG OH
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.281-295
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    • 2023
  • This study aims to establish and analyze a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of male adolescent smoking and to determine an optimal control strategy to reduce male adolescent smoking. We consider three groups in the population: smokers, non-smokers, and temporary nonsmokers. In our model to which optimal control theory was applied, the number of smokers decreased sharply and the number of non-smokers increased significantly. Our simulation results under various control scenarios reveal that integrated control measures(such as prevention, education, and treatment) may be necessary to reduce the growth rate of adolescent smoking. Moreover, we concluded that efforts to encourage current smokers and temporary quitters to quit should be sustained longer than efforts to reduce the rate at which nonsmokers become smokers through smoking prevention education.

DYNAMICAL BEHAVIOUR OF A DRINKING EPIDEMIC MODEL

  • Sharma, Swarnali;Samanta, G.P.
    • Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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    • 제31권5_6호
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    • pp.747-767
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    • 2013
  • In this paper we have constructed a mathematical model of alcohol abuse which consists of four compartments corresponding to four population classes, namely, moderate and occasional drinkers, heavy drinkers, drinkers in treatment and temporarily recovered class. Basic reproduction number $R_0$ has been determined and sensitivity analysis of $R_0$ indicates that ${\beta}1$ (the transmission coefficient from moderate and occasional drinker to heavy drinker) is the most useful parameter for preventing drinking habit. Stability analysis of the model is made using the basic reproduction number. The model is locally asymptotically stable at disease free or problem free equilibrium (DFE) $E_0$ when $R_0<1$. It is found that, when $R_0=1$, a backward bifurcation can occur and when $R_0>1$, the endemic equilibrium $E^*$ becomes stable. Further analysis gives the global asymptotic stability of DFE under some conditions. Our important analytical findings are illustrated through computer simulation. Epidemiological implications of our analytical findings are addressed critically.

Rv3168 Phosphotransferase Activity Mediates Kanamycin Resistance in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

  • Ahn, Jae-Woo;Kim, Kyung-Jin
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
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    • 제23권11호
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    • pp.1529-1535
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    • 2013
  • Tuberculosis is a worldwide epidemic disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, with an estimated one-third of the human population currently affected. Treatment of this disease with aminoglycoside antibiotics has become less effective owing to antibiotic resistance. Recent determination of the crystal structure of the M. tuberculosis Rv3168 protein suggests a structure similar to that of Enterococcus faecalis APH(3')-IIIa, and that this protein may be an aminoglycoside phosphotransferase. To determine whether Rv3168 confers antibiotic resistance against kanamycin, we performed dose-response antibiotic resistance experiments using kanamycin. Expression of the Rv3168 protein in Escherichia coli conferred antibiotic resistance against $100{\mu}M$ kanamycin, a concentration that effected cell growth arrest in the parental E. coli strain and an E. coli strain expressing the $Rv3168^{D249A}$ mutant, in which the catalytic Asp249 residue was mutated to alanine. Furthermore, we detected phosphotransferase activity of Rv3168 against kanamycin as a substrate. Moreover, docking simulation of kanamycin into the Rv3168 structure suggests that kanamycin fits well into the substrate binding pocket of the protein, and that the phosphorylation-hydroxyl-group of kanamycin was located at a position similar to that in E. faecalis APH(3')-IIIa. On the basis of these results, we suggest that the Rv3168 mediates kanamycin resistance in M. tuberculosis, likely through phosphotransferase targeting of kanamycin.

택시 이동 모델을 사용한 근무일 이동에서 DTN 라우팅 프로토콜의 성능 분석 (A performance analysis of a DTN routing protocol in the working day movement using a taxi movement model)

  • 오상엽
    • 디지털융복합연구
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    • 제12권6호
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    • pp.265-270
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    • 2014
  • ONE 시뮬레이터로 구현된 근무일 이동 모델은 교통수단을 이용하여 실제와 비슷한 환경을 제공한다. 하지만, 근무일 이동 모델은 교통수단 중에 택시 이동 모델은 누락되어 있다. 그래서 선행 연구로 택시 이동 모델을 ONE 시뮬레이터로 구현하였다. ONE 시뮬레이터 안에서 라우팅 프로토콜의 실험결과는 이동 모델에 따라 크게 달라진다. 그래서 본 논문에서는 ONE 시뮬레이터에 택시 이동 모델을 이용하였을 때, 전염 라우팅 프로토콜과 같은 DTN 라우팅 프로토콜의 성능 평가 결과를 분석한다.

HIV감염과 AIDS의 전파특성에 관한 수학적 모델화 (Mathematical Modelling for the Transmission Dynamics of HIV infection and AIDS)

  • 정형환;주석민;정문규;이광우
    • 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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    • 제48권2호
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    • pp.89-95
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    • 1999
  • This study investigates the population model of the spread of HIV/AIDS which the infection is generated by an infectious individual in a population of susceptible. A mathematical model is presented for the transmission dynamics of HIV infection within the communities of homosexual males. The pattern on the epidemic character of HIV, the causative agent of AIDS, was analysed by the mathematical model of AIDS system which is derived according to the ecological relationship between five epidemilogic states of individuals. The computer simulation was performed using real data and the following conclusions are drawn on the basis of the simulations. 1. The model structure and the algorithm described n the thesis is good. 2. In proportion to increase Ro, the population of AIDS patient increases and the time of its widespread reaches earlier. 3. The AIDS patients will be maximum between 7 and 21 years after an attack of AIDS and widespread between 10 and 20 years. 4. Considering the properties of the incubation periods, the maximum number of infected person is increased, and the attack rate is decreased.

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CMP: A Context Information-based Routing Scheme with Energy-based Message Prioritization for Delay Tolerant Networks

  • Cabacas, Regin;Ra, In-Ho
    • International Journal of Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Systems
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    • 제14권4호
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    • pp.295-304
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    • 2014
  • Communication infrastructure supports wide variety of mobile services such as photo and file sharing, location tracking, social network services and instant messaging. However, instances like power-loss and natural disasters disrupt these communication infrastructures unable to render support to these mobile services. Delay-tolerant networks (DTNs) offer a solution to these problems at hand. By utilizing mobility and opportunistic contacts among mobile devices, a plausible communication network can be establish and enable support to mobile applications. This paper presents an energy-efficient, reliable message delivery routing scheme with message prioritization rules for DTN. It uses the context information of nodes (mobile devices) such as the contact history (location and time of contact), speed/velocity, moving direction to determine the best forwarders among nodes in the network. The remaining energy of the nodes is also used to determine the message types a node can deliver successfully. The simulation results show that proposed approach outperforms Epidemic and Prophet routing schemes in terms of delivery ratio, overhead ratio, delivered messages per types and remaining energy.

DTN에서 메시지 분포에 따른 중계 노드 선택 기법 (Relay node selection scheme based on message distribution for DTN)

  • 도윤형;이강환
    • 한국정보통신학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국정보통신학회 2016년도 춘계학술대회
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    • pp.431-433
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    • 2016
  • 본 논문에서는 Delay Tolerant Network(DTN) 환경에서 메시지 분포를 사용하여 효율적인 중계노드를 선택하는 기법을 제안한다. DTN은 종단 간 연결이 불확실한 네트워크에서의 통신을 Store-Carry-Forward 방식을 사용하여 메시지를 목적 노드에 전달한다. 또한 종단 간 연결이 불확실한 상황에서도 중계 노드를 통해 메시지를 목적 노드에 전달하여 높은 전송률을 보장한다. 하지만 에피데믹(Epidemic) 라우팅이나 Spray and Wait 라우팅과 같은 기존 다중 복사 라우팅 알고리즘은 접촉한 모든 노드에게 메시지를 복사하여 메시지 복사로 인한 오버헤드가 높아진다. 반면에 PRoPHET 라우팅과 같은 단일 복사 알고리즘은 적은 오버헤드를 발생시키지만 중계 노드 수 감소로 인한 메시지 전송률 감소 현상이 나타난다. 본 논문에서 제안하는 알고리즘은 기존 DTN 라우팅의 문제점을 보완하기 위해 네트워크의 메시지 분포를 분석하여 효율적인 중계 노드를 선택할 수 있는 확률을 결정한다. 본 논문에서는 모의실험을 통해 제안하는 알고리즘이 기존 DTN 라우팅 알고리즘과 비교하여 더 효율적임을 증명한다.

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국내 농업기후지대 별 최적기후모형 선정을 통한 미래 벼 도열병 발생 위험도 예측 (Predicting Potential Epidemics of Rice Leaf Blast Disease Using Climate Scenarios from the Best Global Climate Model Selected for Individual Agro-Climatic Zones in Korea)

  • 이성규;김광형
    • 한국기후변화학회지
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    • 제9권2호
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    • pp.133-142
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    • 2018
  • Climate change will affect not only the crop productivity but also the pattern of rice disease epidemics in Korea. Impact assessments for the climate change are conducted using various climate change scenarios from many global climate models (GCM), such as a scenario from a best GCM or scenarios from multiple GCMs, or a combination of both. Here, we evaluated the feasibility of using a climate change scenario from the best GCM for the impact assessment on the potential epidemics of a rice leaf blast disease in Korea, in comparison to a multi?model ensemble (MME) scenario from multiple GCMs. For this, this study involves analyses of disease simulation using an epidemiological model, EPIRICE?LB, which was validated for Korean rice paddy fields. We then assessed likely changes in disease epidemics using the best GCM selected for individual agro?climatic zones and MME scenarios constructed by running 11 GCMs. As a result, the simulated incidence of leaf blast epidemics gradually decreased over the future periods both from the best GCM and MME. The results from this study emphasized that the best GCM selection approach resulted in comparable performance to the MME approach for the climate change impact assessment on rice leaf blast epidemic in Korea.

다 집단 구획모델을 적용한 지역 간 감염모델 (Interregional Epidemic Model with Multi-Group Compartmental Model)

  • 곽승현
    • 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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    • 제30권3호
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 2021
  • 코로나바이러스감염증-19의 지역 간 감염확산을 설명하기 위해 단일 집단의 구획모델(compartmental model)인 SEIQRD 모델을 응용하여 다 집단(multi-group) 구획모델을 설계하였다. 이 모델은 구획을 세분화하여 잠복기 및 무증상자와 같은 숨은 감염자에 대한 설명이 가능하며 각 지역 간 감염지수와 검사율을 비교할 수 있다. 이를 통해 2020년 8월 2차 대유행과 11월 3차 대유행 시기에 어느 지역을 중심으로 전파가 이뤄졌는지 추정해보았다. 대한민국 국민 전체를 모집단으로 두었을 때 하위집단(subgroup)을 서울, 경기+인천, 비수도권으로 설정하였다. 데이터는 보건복지부의 '코로나 19국내발생 현황'을 참고하여 격리중인 인원, 누적 사망인원, 완치(격리해제)인원을 적합시켜 지역 간 감염지수와 지역별 감염자들의 평균 검사율, 지역별 평균 완치기간, 지역별 예상되는 숨은 감염자 수를 추정하였다.

DTN에서 노드 간 연결 가능성과 마스킹 연산을 이용한 중계노드 선정 기법 (Relay Node Selection Method using Node-to-node Connectivity and Masking Operation in Delay Tolerant Networks)

  • 정래진;전일규;우병훈;구남경;이강환
    • 한국정보통신학회논문지
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    • 제20권5호
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    • pp.1020-1030
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    • 2016
  • 본 논문에서는 이동 속성 정보를 활용하여 이동 노드간의 연결 가능성을 분석하고 마스킹 기법을 이용하여 이웃한 이동노드 중 목적 노드와 연결 가능성이 가장 높은 이동노드를 중계노드로 선정하는 EPCM(Enhanced Prediction-based Context-awareness Matrix)을 제안한다. 기존 Delay Tolerant Network (DTN)의 전송방식은 노드의 단순 이동성에 의존하여 목적노드로 메시지를 전송하게 된다. 이러한 경우 목적노드와의 연결성이 낮은 이동노드를 중계노드로 선정하게 되면 이동노드의 메시지 저장 및 처리 능력 제한으로 인하여 전송 지연 또는 패킷 손실의 원인이 된다. 본 논문의 제안된 알고리즘에서는 이동노드의 속도와 방향 속성 정보를 고려하여 목적노드와의 연결성을 계산하고 마스킹 연산을 활용하여 가장 높은 연결 가능성을 가지고 있는 중계노드를 선정하여 목적 노드까지 메시지를 전달하게 된다. 모의실험에서 Epidemic 및 PROPHET 알고리즘과 제안하는 알고리즘의 패킷 전송률을 비교한 결과 제안하는 알고리즘이 노드의 이동 속성을 고려한 연결성으로 보다 높은 패킷 전송률을 보여주었다.