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http://dx.doi.org/10.9709/JKSS.2021.30.3.019

Interregional Epidemic Model with Multi-Group Compartmental Model  

Gwak, Seung Hyun (Korea Military Academy)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation / v.30, no.3, 2021 , pp. 19-29 More about this Journal
Abstract
To explain the interregional infections in COVID-19, we designed a multi-group compartmental model by applying the SEIQRD model, a compartmental model of a single group. The model is segmented by compartments to account for hidden infections, such as latent periods and asymptomatic cases, and is capable of comparing infection indices and test rates between regions. Through this, it estimated which region was centered during the second wave in August 2020 and the third wave in November 2020. Subgroups were set up in Seoul, Gyeonggi (including Incheon), and a non-metropolitan area. We fit the model to the Ministry of Health and Welfare's data to estimate the average infection index between regions, average rate of rT-PCR test by region, and the expected number of hidden infections by region.
Keywords
multi-group compartmental model; COVID-19; interregional infection;
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