• Title/Summary/Keyword: Environmental Scenario Generator

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Implement of Search Cases of Environmental Data Based on Fuzzy Criteria for Development of Environmental Scenario Generator (환경 시나리오 발생기 개발을 위한 퍼지 논리 기반 환경 자료의 검색 사례 구현)

  • Park, Jongchul;Kim, Man-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.73-86
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    • 2017
  • Environmental data plays an important role to enhance the reliability of experimental results in M&S(Modeling and Simulation). Especially in Military M&S, extreme weather events can be used for virtual training and simulation importantly. However, the environmental data is huge and it is dispersed among multiple organizations. It is difficult for M&S operators to select the date and area where the weather phenomenon occurs in the real environmental data and to acquire them. Environmental data retrieval technology based on Fuzzy criteria is one of the important technologies for developing Environmental Scenario Generator. As a result of this study, a fuzzy retrieval algorithm composed of four main parameters(RV, MF, FRA, and MRV) was presented. This study suggests that the RV can be used as 14 m/s for wind speed and 80 mm/d for precipitation to search the date of storm accompanied by high wind. The MF, the FRA, and MRV can be used sigmoid, 0.2, and 1 respectively. The algorithm proposed in this study is expected to be very useful for searching the date on which weather phenomena necessary for simulation occurred.

Estimation of Future Land Cover Considering Shared Socioeconomic Pathways using Scenario Generators (Scenario Generator를 활용한 사회경제경로 시나리오 반영 미래 토지피복 추정)

  • Song, Cholho;Yoo, Somin;Kim, Moonil;Lim, Chul-Hee;Kim, Jiwon;Kim, Sea Jin;Kim, Gang Sun;Lee, Woo-Kyun
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.223-234
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    • 2018
  • Estimation of future land cover based on climate change scenarios is an important factor in climate change impact assessment and adaptation policy. This study estimated future land cover considering Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) using Scenario Generators. Based on the storylines of SSP1-3, future population and estimated urban area were adopted for the transition matrix, which contains land cover change trends of each land cover class. In addition, limits of land cover change and proximity were applied as spatial data. According to the estimated land cover maps from SSP1-3 in 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively, urban areas near a road were expanded, but agricultural areas and forests were gradually decreased. More drastic urban expansion was seen in SSP3 compared to SSP1 and SSP2. These trends are similar with previous research with regard to storyline, but the spatial results were different. Future land cover can be easily adjusted based on this approach, if econometric forecasts for each land cover class added. However, this requires determination of econometric forecasts for each land cover class.

Downscaling Technique of Monthly GCM Using Daily Precipitation Generator (일 강수발생모형을 이용한 월 단위 GCM의 축소기법에 관한 연구)

  • Kyoung, Min Soo;Lee, Jung Ki;Kim, Hung Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.5B
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    • pp.441-452
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    • 2009
  • This paper describes the evaluation technique for climate change effect on daily precipitation frequency using daily precipitation generator that can use outputs of the climate model offered by IPCC DDC. Seoul station of KMA was selected as a study site. This study developed daily precipitation generation model based on two-state markov chain model which have transition probability, scale parameter, and shape parameter of Gamma-2 distribution. Each parameters were estimated from regression analysis between mentioned parameters and monthly total precipitation. Then the regression equations were applied for computing 4 parameters equal to monthly total precipitation downscaled by K-NN to generate daily precipitation considering climate change. A2 scenario of the BCM2 model was projected based on 20c3m(20th Century climate) scenario and difference of daily rainfall frequency was added to the observed rainfall frequency. Gumbel distribution function was used as a probability density function and parameters were estimated using probability weighted moments method for frequency analysis. As a result, there is a small decrease in 2020s and rainfall frequencies of 2050s, 2080s are little bit increased.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT OVER INDIAN AGRICULTURE - A SPATIAL MODELING APPROACH

  • Priya, Satya;Shibasaki, Ryosuke
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 1999.11a
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    • pp.107-114
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    • 1999
  • The large-scale distribution of crops Is usually determined by climate. We present the results of a climate-crop prediction based on spatial bio-physical process model approach, implemented in a GIS (Geographic Information System) environment using several regional and global agriculture-environmental databases. The model utilizes daily climate data like temperature, rainfall, solar radiation being generated stocastically by in-built model weather generator to determine the daily biomass and finally the crop yield. Crops are characterized by their specific growing period requirements, photosynthesis, respiration properties and harvesting index properties. Temperature and radiation during the growing period controls the development of each crop. The model simulates geographic/spatial distribution of climate by which a crop-growing belt can also be determined. The model takes both irrigated and non-irrigated area crop productivity into account and the potential increase in productivity by the technical means like mechanization is not considered. All the management input given at the base year 1995 was kept same for the next twenty-year changes until 2015. The simulated distributions of crops under current climatic conditions coincide largely with the current agricultural or specific crop growing regions. Simulation with assumed weather generated derived climate change scenario illustrate changes in the agricultural potential. There are large regional differences in the response across the country. The north-south and east-west regions responded differently with projected climate changes with increased and decreased productivity depending upon the crops and scenarios separately. When water was limiting or facilitating as non-irrigated and irrigated area crop-production effects of temperature rise and higher $CO_2$ levels were different depending on the crops and accordingly their production. Rise in temperature led to yield reduction in case of maize and rice whereas a gain was observed for wheat crop, doubled $CO_2$ concentration enhanced yield for all crops and their several combinations behaved differently with increase or decrease in yields. Finally, with this spatial modeling approach we succeeded in quantifying the crop productivity which may bring regional disparities under the different climatic scenarios where one region may become better off and the other may go worse off.

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Estimation of Leg Collision Strength for Large Wind Turbine Installation Vessel (WTIV) (대형 해상풍력발전기 설치 선박(WTIV) Leg구조의 충돌 강도평가)

  • Park, Joo-Shin;Ma, Kuk-Yeol;Seo, Jung-Kwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.551-560
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    • 2020
  • Recently, the offshore wind power generator market is expected to grow significantly because of increased energy demand, reduced dependence on fossil fuel-based power generation, and environmental regulations. Consequently, wind power generation is increasing worldwide, and several attempts have been made to utilize offshore wind power. Norway's Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA) requires a leg-structure design with a collision energy of 35 MJ owing to the event of a collision under operation conditions. In this study, the results of the numerical analysis of a wind turbine installation vessel subjected to ship collision were set such that the maximum collision energy that the leg could sustain was calculated and compared with the PSA requirements. The current leg design plan does not satisfy the required value of 35 MJ, and it is necessary to increase the section modulus by more than 200 % to satisfy the regulations, which is unfeasible in realistic leg design. Therefore, a collision energy standard based on a reasonable collision scenario should be established.

A Study on Energy Savings of a DC-based Variable Speed Power Generation System (직류기반 가변속 발전 시스템을 이용한 에너지 절감에 관한 연구)

  • Kido Park;Gilltae Roh;Kyunghwa Kim;Changjae Moon;Jongsu Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.666-671
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    • 2023
  • As international environmental regulations on ship emissions are gradually strengthened, interest in electric propulsion and hybrid propulsion ships is increasing, and various solutions are being developed and applied to these ships, especially stabilization of the power system and system efficiency. The direct current distribution system is being applied as a way to increase the power. In addition, verification and testing of safety and performance of marine DC distribution systems is required. As a result of establishing a DC distribution test bed, verifying the performance of the DC distribution (variable speed power generation) system, and analyzing fuel consumption, this study applied a variable speed power generation system that is applied to DC power distribution for ships, and converted the power output from the generator into a rectifier. A system was developed to convert direct current power to connect to the system and monitor and control these devices. Through tests using this DC distribution system, the maximum voltage was 751.5V and the minimum voltage was 731.4V, and the voltage fluctuation rate was 2.7%, confirming that the voltage is stably supplied within 3%, and a variable speed power generation system was installed according to load fluctuations. When applied, it was confirmed through testing that fuel consumption could be reduced by more than 20% depending on the section compared to the existing constant speed power generation system.