• Title/Summary/Keyword: Environmental Impact Assessment prediction

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Prediction on Habitat Distribution in Mt. Inwang and Mt. An Using Maxent (Maxent 모형을 활용한 인왕산-안산 서식지 분포 예측)

  • Seo, Saebyul;Lee, Minjee;Kim, Jaejoo;Chun, Seung-Hoon;Lee, Sangdon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.432-441
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    • 2016
  • In this study, we predicted species distributions in Mt. Inwang and Mt. An as preceding research to build ecological corridor by considering connectivity of habitats which have been fragmented in the city. We analyzed species distributions by using Maxent (Maximum Entropy Approach) model with species presence. We used 23 points of mammals and 15 points of Titmouse (Parus major, P. palustris, P. varius) as target species from appearance points of species examined. We build 4 geography factors, 4 vegetation factors, and 2 distance factors as model variables In case of mammals, factors that affected species distribution model was Digital Elevation Model(DEM, 34%) followed by Distance from edge forest to interior (24.8%) and Species of tree (10%). On the other hand, in case of Parus species, factors that affected species distribution model were DEM (39.6%) followed by distance from road (35.4%) and Density-class (8.2%). Therefore, birds and mammals prefer interior of mountain, and this area needs to be protected.

Analyzing Priority Management Areas for Domestic Cats (Felis catus) Using Predictions of Distribution Density and Potential Habitat (고양이(Feliscatus)의 분포밀도와 잠재서식지 예측을 이용한 우선 관리 대상 지역 분석)

  • Ahmee Jeong;Sangdon Lee
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.545-555
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to predict the distribution density and potential habitat of domestic cats (Felis catus) in order to identify core distribution areas. It also aimed to overlay protected areas to identify priority areas for cat management. Kernel density estimation was used to determine the distribution density, and areas with high density were classified in Greater Seoul, Chungnam, Daejeon, and Daegu. Elevation, distance from the used area and roughness were identified as important variables in predicting potential habitat using the MaxEnt model. In addition, the classification of suitable and unsuitable areas based on thresholds showed that the predicted presence of habitat was more extensive in Seoul, Sejong, Daejeon, Chungnam, and Daegu. Core distribution areas were selected by overlapping high-density areas with suitable areas. Priority management areas were identified by overlaying core distribution areas with designated wildlife sanctuaries. As a result, Gyeonggi, and Chungnam have the largest areas. In addition, buffer zones will be implemented to effectively manage the core distribution area and minimize the potential for additional introductions in areas of high management priority, such as protected areas. These results can be used as a basis for investigating the status of the cat's habitat and developing more effective management strategies.

A Study of the Amount of Fugitive Dust Generated from New Harbor Construction Site and the Prediction of Effect using AERMOD (매립공사 시 비산먼지 발생량 및 AERMOD를 이용한 영향예측에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Bae-Geun;Seo, Jong-Beom;Kim, Young-Seek;Choi, Won-Joon;Kim, Yun-Su;Oh, Kwang-Joong
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.304-314
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    • 2009
  • A new harbor as been constructing in Gadukdo. However, a lot of fugitive dust gas been often generated from construction site reclaiming sea sand, especially when the Northwester is blown strongly. It has resulted insome appeals of residents in Gadukdo. In this study, we estimated the amount of fugitive dust caused by new harbor construction using Fugitive dust formula. Also, the concentration of PM10 for recipient is predicted by AERMOD. The amount of fugitive dust is 26.56 ${\mu}g/sec{\cdot}m^2$ and 11.84 ${\mu}g/sec{\cdot}m^2$ respectively by the Fugitive dust formula. PM10 outlet concentration and the amount of fugitive dust increase according to wind velocity and directions. AERMOD is performed on the basis of weather data and the amount of fugitive dust generated with wind velocity. As a result of AERMOD, the PM10 concentration of Sunchang and Oinul are predicted over 100 ${\mu}g/m^3$. The PM10 concentration of Sunchang and Oinul are predicted over 130 ${\mu}g/m^3$ when wind velocity of northwester in winter is over 11 m/s (Air Quality for Particulate Matter (100 ${\mu}g/m^3$ for 24 hours)). Also, the measured error between AERMOD and actual measurement is lower than 5%.

Scheme on Environmental Risk Assessment and Management for Carbon Dioxide Sequestration in Sub-seabed Geological Structures in Korea (이산화탄소 해양 지중저장사업의 환경위해성평가관리 방안)

  • Choi, Tae-Seob;Lee, Jung-Suk;Lee, Kyu-Tae;Park, Young-Gyu;Hwang, Jin-Hwan;Kang, Seong-Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.307-319
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    • 2009
  • Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology has been regarded as one of the most possible and practical option to reduce the emission of carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) and consequently to mitigate the climate change. Korean government also have started a 10-year R&D project on $CO_2$ storage in sea-bed geological structure including gas field and deep saline aquifer since 2005. Various relevant researches are carried out to cover the initial survey of suitable geological structure storage site, monitoring of the stored $CO_2$ behavior, basic design of $CO_2$ transport and storage process and the risk assessment and management related to $CO_2$ leakage from engineered and geological processes. Leakage of $CO_2$ to the marine environment can change the chemistry of seawater including the pH and carbonate composition and also influence adversely on the diverse living organisms in ecosystems. Recently, IMO (International Maritime Organization) have developed the risk assessment and management framework for the $CO_2$ sequestration in sub-seabed geological structures (CS-SSGS) and considered the sequestration as a waste management option to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This framework for CS-SSGS aims to provide generic guidance to the Contracting Parties to the London Convention and Protocol, in order to characterize the risks to the marine environment from CS-SSGS on a site-specific basis and also to collect the necessary information to develop a management strategy to address uncertainties and any residual risks. The environmental risk assessment (ERA) plan for $CO_2$ storage work should include site selection and characterization, exposure assessment with probable leak scenario, risk assessment from direct and in-direct impact to the living organisms and risk management strategy. Domestic trial of the $CO_2$ capture and sequestration in to the marine geologic formation also should be accomplished through risk management with specified ERA approaches based on the IMO framework. The risk assessment procedure for $CO_2$ marine storage should contain the following components; 1) prediction of leakage probabilities with the reliable leakage scenarios from both engineered and geological part, 2) understanding on physio-chemical fate of $CO_2$ in marine environment especially for the candidate sites, 3) exposure assessment methods for various receptors in marine environments, 4) database production on the toxic effect of $CO_2$ to the ecologically and economically important species, and finally 5) development of surveillance procedures on the environmental changes with adequate monitoring techniques.

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Feasibility of Environmental DNA Metabarcoding for Invasive Species Detection According to Taxa (분류군별 외래생물 탐지를 위한 환경 DNA 메타바코딩 활용 가능성)

  • Yujin Kang;Jeongeun Jeon;Seungwoo Han;Suyeon Won;Youngkeun Song
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.94-111
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    • 2023
  • In order to establish an effective management strategy for invasive species early detection and regular monitoring are required to assess their introduction or dispersal. Environmental DNA (eDNA) is actively applied to evaluate the fauna including the presence of invasive species as it has high detection sensitivity and can detect multiple species simultaneously. In Korea, the applicability evaluation of metabarcoding is being conducted mainly on fish, and research on other taxa is insufficient. Therefore, this study identified the feasibility of detecting invasive species in Korea using eDNA metabarcoding. In addition, to confirm the possibility of detection by taxa, the detection of target species was evaluated using four universal primers (MiFish, MiMammal, Mibird, Amp16S) designed for fish, mammals, birds, and amphibians. As a result, target species (Trachemys scripta, 3 sites; Cervus nippon, 3 sites; Micropterus salmoides, 7 sites; Rana catesbeiana, 4 sites) were detected in 17 of the total 55 sites. Even in the selection of dense sampling sites within the study area, there was a difference in the detection result by reflecting the ecological characteristics of the target species. A comparison of community structures (species richness, abundance and diversity) based on the presence of invasive species focused on M.salmoides and T.scripta, showed higher diversity at the point where invasive species were detected. Also, 1 to 4 more species were detected and abundance was also up to 1.7 times higher. The results of invasive species detection through metabarcoding and the comparison of community structures indicate that the accumulation of large amounts of monitoring data through eDNA can be efficiently utilized for multidimensional ecosystem evaluation. In addition, it suggested that eDNA can be used as major data for evaluation and prediction, such as tracking biological changes caused by artificial and natural factors and environmental impact assessment.

L-THIA Modification and SCE-UA Application for Spatial Analysis of Nonpoit Source Pollution at Gumho River Basin (환경부 토지피복 중분류 적용을 위한 L-THIA 모델 수정과 SCE-UA연계적용에 의한 금호강유역 비점오염 분포파악)

  • Kim, Jung-Jin;Kim, Tae Dong;Choi, Dong Hyuk;Lim, Kyoung Jae;Engel, Bernard;Jeon, Ji-Hong
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.311-321
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    • 2009
  • Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) was modified to improve runoff and pollutant load prediction for Korean watersheds with changes in land use classification and event mean concentration produced from observed data in Korea. The L-THIA model was linked with SCE-UA, which is one of the global optimization techniques, to automatically calibrate direct runoff. Modified L-THIA model was applied to Gumho River Basins to analyze spatial distribution of nonpoint source pollution. The results of model calibration during 1991~2000 and validation during 1981~1990 for direct runoff represented high model efficiency of 0.76 for calibration and 0.86 for validation. As a results of spatial analysis of nonpoint source pollution, the BOD was mainly loaded from urban area but SS, TN, and TP from agricultural area which is mainly located along the stream. Modified L-THIA model improve its accuracy with minimum imput data and application efforts. From this study, we can find out the L-THIA model is very useful tool to predict direct runoff and pollutant loads from the watershed and spatial analysis of nonpoint source pollution.

Prediction of Pathway and Toxicity on Dechlorination of PCDDs by Linear Free Energy Relationship (다이옥신의 환원적 탈염화 분해 경로와 독성 변화예측을 위한 LFER 모델)

  • Kim, Ji-Hun;Chang, Yoon-Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.125-131
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    • 2009
  • Reductive dechlorination of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs) and its toxicity change were predicted by the linear free energy relationship (LFER) model to assess the zero-valent iron (ZVI) and anaerobic dechlorinating bacteria (ADB) as electron donors in PCDDs dechlorination. Reductive dechlorination of PCDDs involves 256 reactions linking 76 congeners with highly variable toxicities, so is challenging to assess the overall effect of this process on the environmental impact of PCDD contamination. The Gibbs free energies of PCDDs in aqueous solution were updated to density functional theory (DFT) calculation level from thermodynamic results of literatures. All of dechlorination kinetics of PCDDs was evaluated from the linear correlation between the experimental dechlorination kinetics of PCDDs and the calculated thermodynamics of PCDDs. As a result, it was predicted that over 100 years would be taken for the complete dechlorination of octachlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxin (OCDD) to non-chlorinated compound (dibenzo-p-dioxin, DD), and the toxic equivalent quantity (TEQ) of PCDDs could increase to 10 times larger from initial TEQ with the dechlorination process. The results imply that the single reductive dechlorination using ZVI or ADB is not suitable for the treatment strategy of PCDDs contaminated soil, sediment and fly ash. This LFER approach is applicable for the prediction of dechlorination process for organohalogen compounds and for the assessment of electron donating system for treatment strategies.

Climate-related range shifts of Ardisia japonica in the Korean Peninsula: a role of dispersal capacity

  • Park, Seon Uk;Koo, Kyung Ah;Seo, Changwan;Hong, Seungbum
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.41 no.11
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    • pp.310-317
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    • 2017
  • Background: Many studies about climate-related range shift of plants have focused on understanding the relationship between climatic factors and plant distributions. However, consideration of adaptation factors, such as dispersal and plant physiological processes, is necessary for a more accurate prediction. This study predicted the future distribution of marlberry (Ardisia japonica), a warm-adapted evergreen broadleaved shrub, under climate change in relation to the dispersal ability that is determined by elapsed time for the first seed production. Results: We introduced climate change data under four representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios from five different global circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the future distributions (2041~2060) of marlberry. Using these 20 different climate data, ensemble forecasts were produced by averaging the future distributions of marlberry in order to minimize the model uncertainties. Then, a dispersal-limited function was applied to the ensemble forecast in order to exam the impact of dispersal capacity on future marlberry distributions. In the dispersal-limited function, elapsed time for the first seed production and possible dispersal distances define the dispersal capacity. The results showed that the current suitable habitats of marlberry expanded toward central coast and southern inland area from the current southern and mid-eastern coast area in Korea. However, given the dispersal-limited function, this experiment showed lower expansions to the central coast area and southern inland area. Conclusions: This study well explains the importance of dispersal capacity in the prediction of future marlberry distribution and can be used as basic information in understanding the climate change effects on the future distributions of Ardisia japonica.

Prediction of Potential Habitat of Japanese evergreen oak (Quercus acuta Thunb.) Considering Dispersal Ability Under Climate Change (분산 능력을 고려한 기후변화에 따른 붉가시나무의 잠재서식지 분포변화 예측연구)

  • Shin, Man-Seok;Seo, Changwan;Park, Seon-Uk;Hong, Seung-Bum;Kim, Jin-Yong;Jeon, Ja-Young;Lee, Myungwoo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.291-306
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    • 2018
  • This study was designed to predict potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak (Quercus acuta Thunb.) in Korean Peninsula considering its dispersal ability under climate change. We used a species distribution model (SDM) based on the current species distribution and climatic variables. To reduce the uncertainty of the SDM, we applied nine single-model algorithms and the pre-evaluation weighted ensemble method. Two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were used to simulate the distribution of Japanese evergreen oak in 2050 and 2070. The final future potential habitat was determined by considering whether it will be dispersed from the current habitat. The dispersal ability was determined using the Migclim by applying three coefficient values (${\theta}=-0.005$, ${\theta}=-0.001$ and ${\theta}=-0.0005$) to the dispersal-limited function and unlimited case. All the projections revealed potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak will be increased in Korean Peninsula except the RCP 4.5 in 2050. However, the future potential habitat of Japanese evergreen oak was found to be limited considering the dispersal ability of this species. Therefore, estimation of dispersal ability is required to understand the effect of climate change and habitat distribution of the species.

Quantitative and Semiquantitative Health Risk Assessment of Occupational Exposure to Styrene in a Petrochemical Industry

  • Moshiran, Vahid Ahmadi;Karimi, Ali;Golbabaei, Farideh;Yarandi, Mohsen Sadeghi;Sajedian, Ali Asghar;Koozekonan, Aysa Ghasemi
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.396-402
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    • 2021
  • Background: Styrene is one of the aromatic compounds used in acetonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) producing petrochemicals, which has an impact on health of workers. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the health risks of styrene emitted from the petrochemical industry in Iran. Methods: Air samples were collected based on NIOSH 1501 method. The samples were analyzed by the Varian-cp3800 gas chromatograph. Finally, risk levels of styrene's health effects on employees were assessed by the quantitative method of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) and the semiquantitative way by the Singapore Occupational Safety and Health Association. Results: Based on the results, the employees had the highest average exposure to styrene vapors (4.06 × 10-1mg.(kg - day)-1) in the polybutadiene latex (PBL) unit. Therefore, the most top predictors of cancer and non-cancer risk were 2.3×10-4 and 7.26 × 10-1, respectively. Given that the lowest average exposure (1.5 × 10-2mg.(kg - day)-1) was in the dryer unit, the prediction showed a moderate risk of cancer (0.8 × 10-6) and non-cancer (2.3 × 10-3) for the employees. The EPA method also predicted that there would be a definite cancer risk in 16% and a probable risk in 76% of exposures. However, according to the semiquantitative approach, the rate of risk was at the "low" level for all staff. The results showed that there was a significant difference (p < 0.05) between the units in exposure and health risk of styrene (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Given the high risk of styrene's health effects, appropriate control measures are required to reduce the exposure level.