• 대기
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.67-78
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• 2009

A strong negative correlation has been detected between the North Pacific Oscillation Index (NPI) and the Effective Drought Index (EDI) in May over Korea. In May of positive NPI year, anomalous patterns caused a drought in Korea as follows: the anomalous south-low, north-high low-level pressure patterns in the northeast and southeast of Korea have strengthened the anomalous northerlies to Korea. In addition, these anomalous northerlies have prevented western North Pacific (WNP) high from moving northward. As a result, anomalous descending flows have strengthened in the mid-latitude region in East Asia. In the WNP, the anomalous south-high, north-low sea surface temperature (SST) has been widely distributed, which has strengthened anomalous south-low, north-high low-level pressure patterns. These anomalous characteristics of pressure and SST patterns observed in May of positive NPI years have already been detected in previous winter (December-February) and early spring (March, April). In addition, the anomalous negative sea ice concentration in the North Pacific during two seasons has strengthened the anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the same region and in turn made a contribution to formation of anomalous south-low, north-high pressure patterns in May.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• 제21권1호
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• pp.58-68
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• 2016

The study explored droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in the northwestern region of Bangladesh, which is the drought prone area. In order to assess the trend and variability of monthly rainfall, as well as 3-month scale SPI, non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) tests and continuous wavelet transform were used respectively. The effect of climatic parameters on the drought in this region was also evaluated using SPI, with the Southern Oscilation Index (SOI) by means of the wavelet coherence technique, a relatively new and powerful tool for describing processes. The MK test showed no statistically significant monthly rainfall trends in the selected stations, whereas the seasonal MK test showed a declining rainfall trend in Bogra, Ishurdi, Rangpur and Sayedpur stations respectively. Sen's slope of six stations also provided a decreasing rainfall trend. The trend of the SPI, as well as Sen's slope indicated an increasing dryness trend in this area. Dominant periodicity of 3-month scale SPI at 8 to 16 months, 16 to 32 months, and 32 to 64 months were observed in the study area. The outcomes from this study contribute to hydrologists to establish strategies, priorities and proper use of water resources.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제31권3B호
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• pp.243-252
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• 2011

최근의 기후변화로 인한 강우패턴의 변화는 우리나라에서 가뭄의 발생확률을 증가시키고 있다. 가뭄의 발생은 다른 자연재해와는 달리 지속기간이 길고, 피해지역이 광범위하여, 사회경제적으로 겪는 피해가 다른 자연재해보다 크다. 현재 가뭄의 심도를 평가하기 위해서 기후학적 인자를 우선적으로 고려하는 가뭄지수가 주로 사용되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후학적 인자를 고려한 가뭄지수와 재해에 취약한 사회경제적 요소를 고려하여 가뭄위험지도를 작성함으로써 좀 더 현실적인 가뭄평가 방법을 제시하고자 한다. 경상도 지역에 대한 가뭄의 공간적인 위험도 평가를 수행하기 위해, 가뭄위험도를 노출성 지수와 취약성 지수의 결합으로 정의하여 분석하였다. 가뭄의 노출성 지수는 가뭄지수를 이용하여 GIS를 기반으로 공간적 범위에 분포시켰으며, 가뭄의 취약성 지수는 사회경제적인 5가지 인자를 이용하여 산정하고, 표준화를 통하여 공간적 범위에 분포시켰다. 그 결과 대상지역인 경상도 내 시군구 지역별 가뭄에 대한 위험도의 차이를 비교할 수 있었으며, 같은 강도의 가뭄이 발생하여도 경상도 내 행정구역별 지역적 특성에 따라 가뭄위험도를 평가할 수 있었다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제49권1호
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• pp.41-49
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• 2016

본 연구에서는 일강수량의 누적 패턴을 고려하여 새로운 가뭄지수(RADI)를 개발하였다. RADI는 누적 강수량의 장기간의 평균과 특정 기간에 관측된 누적 강수량을 비교하여 일단위로 가뭄지수를 간단히 산정할 수 있도록 개발되었다. 우리나라의 대표적인 가뭄기간 동안의 RADI의 시 공간적 변동성과 재현 주기를 살펴봄으로써 장 단기 가뭄의 감시에 대한 RADI의 적용성을 평가하였다. SPI의 경우, 장 단기 가뭄을 표현하기 위해서는 여러 가지 지속기간을 가지는 SPI를 사용해야 하지만, RADI는 하나의 지수로 단기 및 장기가뭄을 표현하고 모니터링 할 수 있다. RADI의 전국 평균값을 살펴본 결과, 우리나라에서 20년 주기로 가뭄이 발생하고 있다는 사실을 확인하였다. 또한 RADI의 발생확률 및 통계 분석을 통해 5단계의 가뭄 등급을 제안하였으며, 이는 가뭄 예보와 대응을 위한 기준으로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제29권5호
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• pp.541-549
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• 2020

In this study, standard precipitation index- based analysis associated with run theory was performed using 53 years' (1967-2019) precipitation data to investigate the meteorological drought in Chuncheon. The duration of the meteorological drought in Chuncheon was 8.06 months, magnitude of the drought was -8.21, and average drought depth was -1.08. The drought in May 2014 lasted 21 months until January 2016; the drought scale and average depth was -34.06 and -1.62, respectively. This was the most severe drought in Chuncheon. As a result of drought frequency analysis, the drought scale of May to December in 2014 was estimated to be -16.16, and the return period was estimated to be 300 years. These results are expected to further increase the magnitude and frequency of weather droughts caused by climate change. Therefore, it is critical to prepare appropriate structural measures.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.611-611
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• 2015

One of the hazard of nature is a drought. Its impact varies from region to region and it is difficult for people to understand and define due to differences in hydrometeorological and social economic aspects across much of the country. In the most general sense, drought originates from a deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time, usually month, season or more, resulting in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is well known and has been used to study aridity changes in modern and past climates. The PDSI index is estimated over US using USHCN historical data.(e.g. precipitation, temperature, latitude and soil moisture). In this study, low frequency drought variability associated with climate variability such as El-Nino and ENSO is mainly investigated. With respect to the multi-scale analysis, wavelet transform analysis is applied to the PDSI index in order to extract the low frequency band corresponding to 2-8 years. Finally, low frequency patterns associated with drought by comparing global wavelet power, with significance test are explored.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제66권4호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2024

In recent years, climate change has been responsible for unusual weather patterns on a global scale. Droughts, natural disasters triggered by insufficient rainfall, can inflict significant social and economic consequences on the entire agricultural sector due to their widespread occurrence and the challenge in accurately predicting their onset. The frequency of drought occurrences in South Korea has been rapidly increasing since 2000, with notably severe droughts hitting regions such as Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungbuk, and Gyeongbuk in 2015, resulting in significant agricultural and social damage. To prepare for future drought occurrences resulting from climate change, it is essential to develop long-term drought predictions and implement corresponding measures for areas prone to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report outlines a climate change scenario under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which integrates projected future socio-economic changes and climate change mitigation efforts derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). SSPs encompass a range of factors including demographics, economic development, ecosystems, institutions, technological advancements, and policy frameworks. In this study, various drought indices were calculated using SSP scenarios derived from 18 CMIP6 global climate models. The SSP5-8.5 scenario was employed as the climate change scenario, and meteorological drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Self-Calibrating Effective Drought Index (scEDI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were utilized to analyze the prediction and variability of future drought occurrences in South Korea.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제54권9호
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• pp.705-718
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• 2021

본 연구에서는 위성 원격 감지 자료를 사용하여 생태학적 가뭄의 가능성을 조사하였다. 먼저 MODIS에서 제공하는 정규식생지수와 지표면온도로 부터 식생건강성지수를 추정하였다. 그런 다음 우리나라 전 지역에 분포하고 있는 기상청 ASOS 주요 60개 지점 주변의 산림지역에서 다양한 강수/증발산 시나리오에 따른 식생 관련 가뭄의 가능성을 추정하기 위한 결합 확률모델을 구성하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 대기의 수분공급이 열악하거나 대기의 수분 요구량이 과도한 조건에서 산림 식생과 관련된 가뭄의 위험 패턴을 보여준다. 또한 다양한 기상학적 가뭄 조건에서 산림 식생과 관련된 가뭄 위험의 민감도를 나타낸다. 이러한 연구 결과는 의사 결정권자가 가뭄 위험을 평가하고 온난화 시대에 산림 식생과 관련된 가뭄 완화 전략을 개발할 수 있는 통찰력을 제공할 것으로 기대된다.

• 대기
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• 제18권4호
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• pp.249-266
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• 2008

The tendencies for teleconnection with a time lag and other characteristics of Korean summer droughts have been investigated and some clues to predict the drought occurrences several months before have been found. First, the May and June droughts in Korea are simultaneous with those over the northwestern part of Korea owing to the relation with the baroclinic wave. However, the July and August droughts occur over the mid-latitudes or southern part of Korea owing to the relation with the Changma front. Second, several months before the MJJA droughts in Korea, it is found that the effective drought index (EDI) over particular areas (hereafter, referred to as the omen areas) is large. Thailand, Carolina Island, Mongolia, and Central Bengal Bay were selected as the omen areas. Third, when the monthly minimum EDI (MME) of the omen area in winter is more than 0.7, it signifies that the precipitation is above normal, Korea has almost always experienced a summer drought. However, the droughts occurring with this type of relationship only represent half of the MJJA droughts in Korea. Fourth, the relationships between the Korean drought and the precipitation over omen areas in low latitudes are not valid over all the eight precipitation areas in Korea, but only over Areas I, II, and III, where heavy rains occur during spring and summer.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2020년도 학술발표회
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• pp.168-168
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• 2020

This study is to evaluate the drought-related bigdata characteristics published from South Korean by developing crawler. The 5 years (2013 ~ 2017) drought-related posted articles were collected from Korean internet search engine 'NAVER' which contains 13 main and 81 local daily newspapers. During the 5 years period, total 40,219 news articles including 'drought' word were found using crawler. To filter the homonyms liken drought to soccer goal drought in sports, money drought economics, and policy drought in politics often used in South Korea, the quality control was processed and 47.8 % articles were filtered. After, the 20,999 (52.2 %) drought news articles of this study were classified into four categories of water deficit (WD), water security and support (WSS), economic damage and impact (EDI), and environmental and sanitation impact (ESI) with 27, 15, 13, and 18 drought-related keywords in each category. The WD, WSS, EDI, and ESI occupied 41.4 %, 34.5 %, 14.8 %, and 9.3 % respectively. The drought articles were mostly posted in June 2015 and June 2017 with 22.7 % (15,097) and 15.9 % (10,619) respectively. The drought news articles were spatiotemporally compared with SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and RDI (Reservoir Drought Index) were calculated. They were classified into administration boundaries of 8 main cities and 9 provinces in South Korea because the drought response works based on local government unit. The space-time clustering between news articles (WD, WSS, EDI, and ESI) and indices (SPI and RDI) were tried how much they have correlation each other. The spatiotemporal clusters detection was applied using SaTScan software (Kulldorff, 2015). The retrospective and prospective cluster analyses were conducted for past and present time to understand how much they are intensive in clusters. The news articles of WD, WSS and EDI had strong clusters in provinces, and ESI in cities.