Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Development and Application of Drought Index Based on Accumulative Pattern of Daily Rainfall

일 단위 강수량의 누적 패턴을 이용한 가뭄지수 개발 및 적용

  • Kwon, Minsung (Graduate School of Water Resources, Sungkyunkwan Univ.) ;
  • Park, Dong-Hyeok (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang Univ.) ;
  • Jun, Kyung Soo (Graduate School of Water Resources, Sungkyunkwan Univ.) ;
  • Kim, Tae-Woong (Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Hanyang Univ.)
  • 권민성 (성균관대학교 수자원전문대학원) ;
  • 박동혁 (한양대학교 대학원 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 전경수 (성균관대학교 수자원전문대학원) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교 공학대학 건설환경플랜트공학과)
  • Received : 2015.10.10
  • Accepted : 2015.11.17
  • Published : 2016.01.31
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Abstract

This study proposed a new drought index considering the accumulative pattern of daily rainfall, i.e., Rainfall Accumulation Drought Index (RADI). The RADI can be easily calculated at daily scale by comparing the long-term averaged cumulative rainfall to the observed cumulative rainfall for a specific duration. This study evaluated the availability of the RADI in the field of monitoring short-term and long-term droughts by investigating the spatial and temporal variability and the recurrence cycle of drought in South Korea. To present the short-term and long-term droughts, the various SPIs with different durations should be used in practice. However, the RADI can present and monitor both short-term and long-term droughts as a single index. By investigating the national average of the RADI, specific drought patterns of 20-year cycle were identified in this study. This study also proposed a five-level drought classification considering occurrence probability that would be a suitable alternative as a drought criterion for drought forecast/response.

본 연구에서는 일강수량의 누적 패턴을 고려하여 새로운 가뭄지수(RADI)를 개발하였다. RADI는 누적 강수량의 장기간의 평균과 특정 기간에 관측된 누적 강수량을 비교하여 일단위로 가뭄지수를 간단히 산정할 수 있도록 개발되었다. 우리나라의 대표적인 가뭄기간 동안의 RADI의 시 공간적 변동성과 재현 주기를 살펴봄으로써 장 단기 가뭄의 감시에 대한 RADI의 적용성을 평가하였다. SPI의 경우, 장 단기 가뭄을 표현하기 위해서는 여러 가지 지속기간을 가지는 SPI를 사용해야 하지만, RADI는 하나의 지수로 단기 및 장기가뭄을 표현하고 모니터링 할 수 있다. RADI의 전국 평균값을 살펴본 결과, 우리나라에서 20년 주기로 가뭄이 발생하고 있다는 사실을 확인하였다. 또한 RADI의 발생확률 및 통계 분석을 통해 5단계의 가뭄 등급을 제안하였으며, 이는 가뭄 예보와 대응을 위한 기준으로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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