• Atmosphere
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.287-306
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• 2010

An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is applied for Typhoon Wukong (200610) to investigate the performance of ensemble forecasts depending on experimental configurations of the EnKF. In addition, the ensemble sensitivity analysis is applied to the forecast and analysis ensembles generated in EnKF, to investigate the possibility of using the ensemble sensitivity analysis as the adaptive observation guidance. Various experimental configurations are tested by changing model error, ensemble size, assimilation time window, covariance relaxation, and covariance localization in EnKF. First of all, experiments using different physical parameterization scheme for each ensemble member show less root mean square error compared to those using single physics for all the forecast ensemble members, which implies that considering the model error is beneficial to get better forecasts. A larger number of ensembles are also beneficial than a smaller number of ensembles. For the assimilation time window, the experiment using less frequent window shows better results than that using more frequent window, which is associated with the availability of observational data in this study. Therefore, incorporating model error, larger ensemble size, and less frequent assimilation window into the EnKF is beneficial to get better prediction of Typhoon Wukong (200610). The covariance relaxation and localization are relatively less beneficial to the forecasts compared to those factors mentioned above. The ensemble sensitivity analysis shows that the sensitive regions for adaptive observations can be determined by the sensitivity of the forecast measure of interest to the initial ensembles. In addition, the sensitivities calculated by the ensemble sensitivity analysis can be explained by dynamical relationships established among wind, temperature, and pressure.

• Atmosphere
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.103-113
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• 2020

In this study, we analyzed and developed the monitoring system in order to confirm the effect of observations on forecast sensitivity on ensemble-based data assimilation. For this purpose, we developed the Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to observation (EFSO) monitoring system based on Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) system coupled with Korean Integrated Model (KIM). We calculated 24 h error variance of each of observations and then classified as beneficial or detrimental effects. In details, the relative rankings were according to their magnitude and analyzed the forecast sensitivity by region for north, south hemisphere and tropics. We performed cycle experiment in order to confirm the EFSO result whether reliable or not. According to the evaluation of the EFSO monitoring, GPSRO was classified as detrimental observation during the specified period and reanalyzed by data-denial experiment. Data-denial experiment means that we detect detrimental observation using the EFSO and then repeat the analysis and forecast without using the detrimental observations. The accuracy of forecast in the denial of detrimental GPSRO observation is better than that in the default experiment using all of the GPSRO observation. It means that forecast skill score can be improved by not assimilating observation classified as detrimental one by the EFSO monitoring system.

• Atmosphere
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.23-32
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• 2013

Ensemble sensitivity has been recently proposed as a method to analyze the dynamics of severe weather events. We adopt it to investigate the physical mechanism which caused the heavy rainfall over the Korean Peninsula on 6th August 2003. Two rainfall peaks existed in this severe weather event. The selected response functions are 1 hour accumulated rainfall amount of each rainfall peak. Sensitivity fields were calculated using 36 ensemble members which were generated by WRFDA. The sensitive regions for the first rainfall peak are located over the Shandong Peninsula and the Yellow Sea at 12 hours before the first rainfall peak. However, the 12-h forecast sensitivity for the second rainfall peak is revealed near Typhoon ETAU (0310) and midlatitude trough. These results show that the first rainfall peak was induced by low pressure which located over the northern part of the Korean Peninsula while the second rainfall peak was caused by the interaction between typhoon ETAU and midlatitude trough.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.54 no.11
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• pp.4181-4194
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• 2022

Main steam safety valves are commonly used in nuclear power plants to provide final protections from overpressure events. Blowdown and dynamic stability are two critical characteristics of safety valves. However, due to the parameter sensitivity and multi-parameter features of safety valves, using traditional method to design and/or optimize them is generally difficult and/or inefficient. To overcome these problems, a surrogate model-based valve design optimization is carried out in this study, of particular interest are methods of valve surrogate modeling, valve parameters global sensitivity analysis and valve performance optimization. To construct the surrogate model, Design of Experiments (DoE) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations of the safety valve were performed successively, thereby an ensemble surrogate model (E-AHF) was built for valve blowdown and stability predictions. With the developed E-AHF model, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the valve parameters was performed, thereby five primary parameters that affect valve performance were identified. Finally, the k-sigma method is used to conduct the robust optimization on the valve. After optimization, the valve remains stable, the minimum blowdown of the safety valve is reduced greatly from 13.30% to 2.70%, and the corresponding variance is reduced from 1.04 to 0.65 as well, confirming the feasibility and effectiveness of the optimization method proposed in this paper.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 1990.10b
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• pp.1377-1382
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• 1990

In Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) which realizes continuous mappings, the output errors is directly affected by the weight errors which may be caused by the limited precision of digital or analog hardware in implementations. So, it is important to study the sensitivity due to the perturbation of connection weights between neurons. In this paper, we derive a sensitivity function to the statistical weight perturbations in MLP with differentiable activation functions. This sensitivity function can be regarded as an ensemble average of deterministic sensitivity measures due to the perturbations of weights. Hence, this sensitivity function can be used as the criteria for selecting weights with the minimum sensitivity among possible sets of connection weights in MLP. For the verification of the validity of the proposed sensitivity function, computer simulations have been performed and through the simulations we find good agreement between the theoretical and simulation results.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.129-147
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• 2022

The properties of soil are naturally highly variable and thus, to ensure proper safety and reliability, we need to test a large number of samples across the length and depth. In pile foundations, conducting field tests are highly expensive and the traditional empirical relations too have been proven to be poor in performance. The study proposes a state-of-art Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) hybridized Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS); and comparative analysis of metaheuristic models (ANN-PSO, ELM-PSO, ANFIS-PSO) for prediction of bearing capacity of pile foundation trained and tested on dataset of nearly 300 dynamic pile tests from the literature. A novel ensemble model of three hybrid models is constructed to combine and enhance the predictions of the individual models effectively. The authenticity of the dataset is confirmed using descriptive statistics, correlation matrix and sensitivity analysis. Ram weight and diameter of pile are found to be most influential input parameter. The comparative analysis reveals that ANFIS-PSO is the best performing model in testing phase (R² = 0.85, RMSE = 0.01) while ELM-PSO performs best in training phase (R² = 0.88, RMSE = 0.08); while the ensemble provided overall best performance based on the rank score. The performance of ANN-PSO is least satisfactory compared to the other two models. The findings were confirmed using Taylor diagram, error matrix and uncertainty analysis. Based on the results ELM-PSO and ANFIS-PSO is proposed to be used for the prediction of bearing capacity of piles and ensemble learning method of joining the outputs of individual models should be encouraged. The study possesses the potential to assist geotechnical engineers in the design phase of civil engineering projects.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.209-220
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• 2011

Input uncertainty is one of the major sources of uncertainty in hydrologic modeling. In this paper, first, three alternate rainfall inputs generated by different interpolation schemes were used to see the impact on a distributed watershed model. Later, the residuals of precipitation interpolations were tested as a source of ensemble streamflow generation in two river basins in the U.S. Using the Monte Carlo parameter search, the relationship between input and parameter uncertainty was also categorized to see sensitivity of the parameters to input differences. This analysis is useful not only to find the parameters that need more attention but also to transfer parameters calibrated for station measurement to the simulation using different inputs such as downscaled data from weather generator outputs. Input ensembles that preserves local statistical characteristics are used to generate streamflow ensembles hindcast, and showed that the ensemble sets are capturing the observed steamflow properly. This procedure is especially important to consider input uncertainties in the simulation of streamflow forecast.

• Computers and Concrete
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.137-145
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• 2024

The technique of experimentally determining concrete's compressive strength for a given mix design is time-consuming and difficult. The goal of the current work is to propose a best working predictive model based on different machine learning algorithms such as Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Stacked Ensemble (SE), Distributed Random Forest (DRF), Extremely Randomized Trees (XRT), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), and Deep Learning (DL) that can forecast the compressive strength of ternary geopolymer concrete mix without carrying out any experimental procedure. A geopolymer mix uses supplementary cementitious materials obtained as industrial by-products instead of cement. The input variables used for assessing the best machine learning algorithm not only include individual ingredient quantities, but molarity of the alkali activator and age of testing as well. Myriad statistical parameters used to measure the effectiveness of the models in forecasting the compressive strength of ternary geopolymer concrete mix, it has been found that GBM performs better than all other algorithms. A sensitivity analysis carried out towards the end of the study suggests that GBM model predicts results close to the experimental conditions with an accuracy between 95.6 % to 98.2 % for testing and training datasets.

• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.665-672
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• 2016

In this study, we examine future changes in the Hadley cell (HC) strength using CMIP5 climate change simulations. The current study is an extension of a previous study by Seo et al. that used all 30 available models. Here, we select 18-23 well-performing models based on their significant internal sensitivity of the interannual HC strength variation to the latitudinal temperature gradient variation. The model projections along with simple scaling analysis show that the inter-model variability in the HC strength change is a result of the inter-model spread in the meridional temperature gradient across the subtropics for both DJF and JJA, not by the tropopause height or gross static stability change. The HC strength is expected to weaken significantly during DJF, while little change is expected in the JJA HC strength. Compared to the calculations with all model members, selected model statistics increase the linear correlation between the changes in HC strength and meridional temperature gradient by 13~23%, confirming the robust sensitivity of the HC strength to the meridional temperature gradient. Two scaling equations for the selected models predict changes in HC strength better than all-member predictions. In particular, the prediction improvement in DJF is as high as 30%. The simple scaling relations successfully predict both the ensemble-mean changes and model-to-model variations in the HC strength for both seasons.

• Genomics & Informatics
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• v.3 no.3
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• pp.80-85
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• 2005

HExDB is a database for analyzing exon and splicing pattern information in Homo sapiens. HExDB is useful for specific purposes: 1) to design primers for exon amplification from cDNA and 2) to understand the change of ORFs by alternative splicing. HExDB was constructed by integrating data from AltExtron which is the computationally predicted exon database, Ensemble cDNA annotation, and Affymetrix genome tile published recently. Although it may contain false positive data, HExDB is good starting point due to its sensitivity. At present, there areas many as 2,046,519 exons stored in the HExDB. We found that $16.8\%$ of the exons in the database was constitutive exons and $83.1\%$ were novel gene exons.