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http://dx.doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2013.23.1.023

Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of the Heavy Rainfall Event Occurred on 6th August 2003 over the Korean Peninsula  

Noh, Namkyu (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
Kim, Shin-Woo (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
Ha, Ji-Hyun (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
Lim, Gyu-Ho (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University)
Publication Information
Atmosphere / v.23, no.1, 2013 , pp. 23-32 More about this Journal
Abstract
Ensemble sensitivity has been recently proposed as a method to analyze the dynamics of severe weather events. We adopt it to investigate the physical mechanism which caused the heavy rainfall over the Korean Peninsula on 6th August 2003. Two rainfall peaks existed in this severe weather event. The selected response functions are 1 hour accumulated rainfall amount of each rainfall peak. Sensitivity fields were calculated using 36 ensemble members which were generated by WRFDA. The sensitive regions for the first rainfall peak are located over the Shandong Peninsula and the Yellow Sea at 12 hours before the first rainfall peak. However, the 12-h forecast sensitivity for the second rainfall peak is revealed near Typhoon ETAU (0310) and midlatitude trough. These results show that the first rainfall peak was induced by low pressure which located over the northern part of the Korean Peninsula while the second rainfall peak was caused by the interaction between typhoon ETAU and midlatitude trough.
Keywords
Ensemble sensitivity; heavy rainfall; response function; typhoon ETAU; midlatitude trough;
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