• Title/Summary/Keyword: Ensemble approach

Search Result 175, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

Evaluation of Agro-Climatic Index Using Multi-Model Ensemble Downscaled Climate Prediction of CMIP5 (상세화된 CMIP5 기후변화전망의 다중모델앙상블 접근에 의한 농업기후지수 평가)

  • Chung, Uran;Cho, Jaepil;Lee, Eun-Jeong
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.108-125
    • /
    • 2015
  • The agro-climatic index is one of the ways to assess the climate resources of particular agricultural areas on the prospect of agricultural production; it can be a key indicator of agricultural productivity by providing the basic information required for the implementation of different and various farming techniques and practicalities to estimate the growth and yield of crops from the climate resources such as air temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation. However, the agro-climate index can always be changed since the index is not the absolute. Recently, many studies which consider uncertainty of future climate change have been actively conducted using multi-model ensemble (MME) approach by developing and improving dynamic and statistical downscaling of Global Climate Model (GCM) output. In this study, the agro-climatic index of Korean Peninsula, such as growing degree day based on $5^{\circ}C$, plant period based on $5^{\circ}C$, crop period based on $10^{\circ}C$, and frost free day were calculated for assessment of the spatio-temporal variations and uncertainties of the indices according to climate change; the downscaled historical (1976-2005) and near future (2011-2040) RCP climate sceneries of AR5 were applied to the calculation of the index. The result showed four agro-climatic indices calculated by nine individual GCMs as well as MME agreed with agro-climatic indices which were calculated by the observed data. It was confirmed that MME, as well as each individual GCM emulated well on past climate in the four major Rivers of South Korea (Han, Nakdong, Geum, and Seumjin and Yeoungsan). However, spatial downscaling still needs further improvement since the agro-climatic indices of some individual GCMs showed different variations with the observed indices at the change of spatial distribution of the four Rivers. The four agro-climatic indices of the Korean Peninsula were expected to increase in nine individual GCMs and MME in future climate scenarios. The differences and uncertainties of the agro-climatic indices have not been reduced on the unlimited coupling of multi-model ensembles. Further research is still required although the differences started to improve when combining of three or four individual GCMs in the study. The agro-climatic indices which were derived and evaluated in the study will be the baseline for the assessment of agro-climatic abnormal indices and agro-productivity indices of the next research work.

Highly Sensitive Gas Sensors Based on Nanostructured $TiO_2$ Thin Films

  • Jang, Ho-Won;Mun, Hui-Gyu;Kim, Do-Hong;Sim, Yeong-Seok;Yun, Seok-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Materials Research Society of Korea Conference
    • /
    • 2011.05a
    • /
    • pp.16.1-16.1
    • /
    • 2011
  • $TiO_2$ is a promising material for gas sensors. To achieve high sensitivities, the material should exhibit a large surface-to-volume ratio and possess the high accessibility of the gas molecules to the surface. Accordingly, a wide variety of porous $TiO_2$ nanomaterials synthesized by wet-chemical methods have been reported for gas sensor applications. Nonetheless, achieving the large-area uniformity and comparability with well-established semiconductor production processes of the methods is still challenging. An alternative method is soft-templating which utilizes nanostructured inorganic or organic materials as sacrificial templates for the preparation of porous materials. Fabrication of macroporous $TiO_2$ films and hollow $TiO_2$ tubes by soft-templating and their gas sensing applications have been reported recently. In these porous materials composed of assemblies of individual micro/nanostructures, the form of links or necks between individual micro/nanostructures is a critical factor to determine gas sensing properties of the material. However, a systematic study to clarify the role of links between individual micro/nanostructures in gas sensing properties of a porous metal oxide matrix is thoroughly lacking. In this work, we have demonstrated a fabrication method to prepare highly-ordered, embossed $TiO_2$ films composed of anatase $TiO_2$ hollow hemispheres via soft-templating using polystyrene beads. The form of links between hollow hemispheres could be controlled by $O_2$ plasma etching on the bead templates. This approach reveals the strong correlation of gas sensitivity with the form of the links. Our experimental results highlight that not only the surface-to-volume ratio of an ensemble material composed of individual micro/nanostructures but also the links between individual micro/nanostructures play a critical role in evaluating the sensing properties of the material. In addition to this general finding, the facileness, large-scale productivity, and compatability with semiconductor production process of the proposed fabrication method promise applications of the embossed $TiO_2$ films to high-quality sensors.

  • PDF

DEEP-South: The Photometric Study of Non-Principal Axis Rotator (5247) Krylov

  • Lee, Hee-Jae;Moon, Hong-Kyu;Kim, Myung-Jin;Kim, Chun-Hwey;Durech, Josef;Park, Jintae;Roh, Dong-Goo;Choi, Young-Jun;Yim, Hong-Suh;Oh, Young-Seok
    • The Bulletin of The Korean Astronomical Society
    • /
    • v.41 no.2
    • /
    • pp.49.2-49.2
    • /
    • 2016
  • The number of discovery of asteroids with peculiar rotational states has recently increased, and hence a novel approach for lightcurve analysis is considered to be critical. In order to investigate objects such as Non-Principal Axis (NPA) rotator, we selected a NPA candidate, (5247) Kryolv as our target considering its Principal Axis Rotation (PAR) code and the visibility in early 2016. The observations of Krylov were made using Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet) 1.6 m telescopes installed at the three southern sites with TO (Target of Opportunity) observation mode. We conducted R-band time-series photometry over a total of 51 nights from January to April 2016 with several exposures during each allocated run. The ensemble normalization photometry was employed using the AAVSO Photomtric All-Sky Survey (APASS) catalog for the standardization. We successfully confirmed its NPA spin state based on the deviation from the reduced lightcurve, and thus Krylov is recorded as the first NPA rotator of its kind in the main-belt, with its precession and rotation periods, $P{\varphi}=81.18h$ and $P_{\Psi}=67.17h$, respectively. In this paper, we present the spin direction, the 3D shape model and taxonomy of the newly confirmed NPA asteroid (5247) Krylov.

  • PDF

Study of protein loop conformational changes by free energy estimation using colony energy

  • Kang, Beom Chang;Lee, Gyu Rie;Seok, Chaok
    • Proceeding of EDISON Challenge
    • /
    • 2014.03a
    • /
    • pp.63-74
    • /
    • 2014
  • Predicting protein loop structures is an important modeling problem since protein loops are often involved in diverse biological functions by participating in enzyme active sites, ligand binding sites, etc. However, loop structure prediction is difficult even when structures of homologous proteins are known due to large sequence and structure variability among loops of homologous proteins. Therefore, an ab initio approach is necessary to solve loop modeling problems. One of the difficulties in the development of ab initio loop modeling method is to derive an accurate scoring function that closely approximates the true free energy function. In particular, entropy as well as energy contribution have to be considered adequately for loops because loops tend to be flexible compared to other parts of protein. In this study, the contribution of conformational entropy is considered in scoring loop conformations by employing "colony energy" which was previously proposed to estimate the free energy for an ensemble of conformations. Loop conformations were generated by using two EDISON_Chem programs GalaxyFill and GalaxySC, and colony energy was designed for this sampling by tuning relevant parameters. On a test set of 40 loops, the accuracy of predicted loop structure improved on average by scoring with the colony energy compared to scoring by energy alone. In addition, high correlation between colony energy and deviation from the native structure suggested that more extensive sampling can further improve the prediction accuracy. In another test on 6 ligand-binding loops that show conformational changes by ligand binding, both ligand-free and ligand-bound states could be identified by using colony energy when no information on the ligand-bound conformation is used.

  • PDF

Development of a software framework for sequential data assimilation and its applications in Japan

  • Noh, Seong-Jin;Tachikawa, Yasuto;Shiiba, Michiharu;Kim, Sun-Min;Yorozu, Kazuaki
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2012.05a
    • /
    • pp.39-39
    • /
    • 2012
  • Data assimilation techniques have received growing attention due to their capability to improve prediction in various areas. Despite of their potentials, applicable software frameworks to probabilistic approaches and data assimilation are still limited because the most of hydrologic modelling software are based on a deterministic approach. In this study, we developed a hydrological modelling framework for sequential data assimilation, namely MPI-OHyMoS. MPI-OHyMoS allows user to develop his/her own element models and to easily build a total simulation system model for hydrological simulations. Unlike process-based modelling framework, this software framework benefits from its object-oriented feature to flexibly represent hydrological processes without any change of the main library. In this software framework, sequential data assimilation based on the particle filters is available for any hydrologic models considering various sources of uncertainty originated from input forcing, parameters and observations. The particle filters are a Bayesian learning process in which the propagation of all uncertainties is carried out by a suitable selection of randomly generated particles without any assumptions about the nature of the distributions. In MPI-OHyMoS, ensemble simulations are parallelized, which can take advantage of high performance computing (HPC) system. We applied this software framework for several catchments in Japan using a distributed hydrologic model. Uncertainty of model parameters and radar rainfall estimates is assessed simultaneously in sequential data assimilation.

  • PDF

Suggestion of User-Centered Climate Service Framework and Development of User Interface Platform for Climate Change Adaptation (기후변화 적응을 위한 사용자 중심의 기후서비스체계 제안 및 사용자인터페이스 플랫폼 개발)

  • Cho, Jaepil;Jung, Imgook;Cho, Wonil;Lee, Eun-Jeong;Kang, Daein;Lee, Junhyuk
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
    • /
    • v.9 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-12
    • /
    • 2018
  • There is an emphasis on the importance of adaptation against to climate change and related natural disasters. As a result, various climate information with different time-scale can be used for science-based climate change adaptation policy. From the aspects of Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), various time-scaled climate information in Korea is mainly produced by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) However, application of weather and climate information in different application sectors has been done individually in the fields of agriculture and water resources mostly based-on weather information. Furthermore, utilization of climate information including seasonal forecast and climate change projections are insufficient. Therefore, establishment of the Cooperation Center for Application of Weather and Climate Information is necessary as an institutional platform for the UIP (User Interface Platform) focusing on multi-model ensemble (MME) based climate service, seamless climate service, and climate service based on multidisciplinary approach. In addition, APCC Integrated Modeling Solution (AIMS) was developed as a technical platform for UIP focusing on user-centered downscaling of various time-scaled climate information, application of downscaled data into impact assessment modeling in various sectors, and finally producing information can be used in decision making procedures. AIMS is expected to be helpful for the increase of adaptation capacity against climate change in developing countries and Korea through the voluntary participation of producer and user groups within in the institutional and technical platform suggested.

Experimental Study on Oscillatory Behavior of Hydraulic Jump Roller (도수 롤러의 거동 분석을 위한 실험 연구)

  • Park, Moonhyung;Kim, Hyung Suk;Choi, Seohye;Ryu, Yonguk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.30 no.6
    • /
    • pp.319-325
    • /
    • 2018
  • This study conducted an experimental investigation on oscillatory behavior of the hydraulic jump roller. Based on the similarity of the hydraulic jump and tidal bore, the behavior of the front face of hydraulic jump with increasing downstream water depth was studied focusing on profile and fluctuation. In this study, for statistical approach, the ensemble averaging was applied to obtain relevant front profile and compared with the time averaging. The front profile gets mildly sloped and the fluctuation of the starting point of hydraulic jump decreases as the downstream water depth increases.

A Best Effort Classification Model For Sars-Cov-2 Carriers Using Random Forest

  • Mallick, Shrabani;Verma, Ashish Kumar;Kushwaha, Dharmender Singh
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
    • /
    • v.21 no.1
    • /
    • pp.27-33
    • /
    • 2021
  • The whole world now is dealing with Coronavirus, and it has turned to be one of the most widespread and long-lived pandemics of our times. Reports reveal that the infectious disease has taken toll of the almost 80% of the world's population. Amidst a lot of research going on with regards to the prediction on growth and transmission through Symptomatic carriers of the virus, it can't be ignored that pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic carriers also play a crucial role in spreading the reach of the virus. Classification Algorithm has been widely used to classify different types of COVID-19 carriers ranging from simple feature-based classification to Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). This research paper aims to present a novel technique using a Random Forest Machine learning algorithm with hyper-parameter tuning to classify different types COVID-19-carriers such that these carriers can be accurately characterized and hence dealt timely to contain the spread of the virus. The main idea for selecting Random Forest is that it works on the powerful concept of "the wisdom of crowd" which produces ensemble prediction. The results are quite convincing and the model records an accuracy score of 99.72 %. The results have been compared with the same dataset being subjected to K-Nearest Neighbour, logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), and Decision Tree algorithms where the accuracy score has been recorded as 78.58%, 70.11%, 70.385,99% respectively, thus establishing the concreteness and suitability of our approach.

Remote Sensing Image Classification for Land Cover Mapping in Developing Countries: A Novel Deep Learning Approach

  • Lynda, Nzurumike Obianuju;Nnanna, Nwojo Agwu;Boukar, Moussa Mahamat
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.214-222
    • /
    • 2022
  • Convolutional Neural networks (CNNs) are a category of deep learning networks that have proven very effective in computer vision tasks such as image classification. Notwithstanding, not much has been seen in its use for remote sensing image classification in developing countries. This is majorly due to the scarcity of training data. Recently, transfer learning technique has successfully been used to develop state-of-the art models for remote sensing (RS) image classification tasks using training and testing data from well-known RS data repositories. However, the ability of such model to classify RS test data from a different dataset has not been sufficiently investigated. In this paper, we propose a deep CNN model that can classify RS test data from a dataset different from the training dataset. To achieve our objective, we first, re-trained a ResNet-50 model using EuroSAT, a large-scale RS dataset to develop a base model then we integrated Augmentation and Ensemble learning to improve its generalization ability. We further experimented on the ability of this model to classify a novel dataset (Nig_Images). The final classification results shows that our model achieves a 96% and 80% accuracy on EuroSAT and Nig_Images test data respectively. Adequate knowledge and usage of this framework is expected to encourage research and the usage of deep CNNs for land cover mapping in cases of lack of training data as obtainable in developing countries.

Using Bayesian tree-based model integrated with genetic algorithm for streamflow forecasting in an urban basin

  • Nguyen, Duc Hai;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2021.06a
    • /
    • pp.140-140
    • /
    • 2021
  • Urban flood management is a crucial and challenging task, particularly in developed cities. Therefore, accurate prediction of urban flooding under heavy precipitation is critically important to address such a challenge. In recent years, machine learning techniques have received considerable attention for their strong learning ability and suitability for modeling complex and nonlinear hydrological processes. Moreover, a survey of the published literature finds that hybrid computational intelligent methods using nature-inspired algorithms have been increasingly employed to predict or simulate the streamflow with high reliability. The present study is aimed to propose a novel approach, an ensemble tree, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) model incorporating a nature-inspired algorithm to predict hourly multi-step ahead streamflow. For this reason, a hybrid intelligent model was developed, namely GA-BART, containing BART model integrating with Genetic algorithm (GA). The Jungrang urban basin located in Seoul, South Korea, was selected as a case study for the purpose. A database was established based on 39 heavy rainfall events during 2003 and 2020 that collected from the rain gauges and monitoring stations system in the basin. For the goal of this study, the different step ahead models will be developed based in the methods, including 1-hour, 2-hour, 3-hour, 4-hour, 5-hour, and 6-hour step ahead streamflow predictions. In addition, the comparison of the hybrid BART model with a baseline model such as super vector regression models is examined in this study. It is expected that the hybrid BART model has a robust performance and can be an optional choice in streamflow forecasting for urban basins.

  • PDF