• Title/Summary/Keyword: Ensemble Modeling

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Derivation of Flood Frequency Curve with Uncertainty of Rainfall and Rainfall-Runoff Model (강우 및 강우-유출 모형의 불확실성을 고려한 홍수빈도곡선 유도)

  • Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Jang-Gyeong;Park, Sae-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.59-71
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    • 2013
  • The lack of sufficient flood data being kept across Korea has made it difficult to assess reliable estimates of the design flood while relatively sufficient rainfall data are available. In this regard, a rainfall simulation based derivation technique of flood frequency curve has been proposed in some of studies. The main issues in deriving the flood frequency curve is to develop the rainfall simulation model that is able to effectively reproduce extreme rainfall. Also the rainfall-runoff modeling that can convey uncertainties associated with model parameters needs to be developed. This study proposes a systematic approach to fully consider rainfallrunoff related uncertainties by coupling a piecewise Kernel-Pareto based multisite daily rainfall generation model and Bayesian HEC-1 model. The proposed model was applied to generate runoff ensemble at Daechung Dam watershed, and the flood frequency curve was successfully derived. It was confirmed that the proposed model is very promising in estimating design floods given a rigorous comparison with existing approaches.

Impact of Future Air Quality in East Asia under SSP Scenarios (SSP 시나리오에 따른 동아시아 대기질 미래 전망)

  • Shim, Sungbo;Seo, Jeongbyn;Kwon, Sang-Hoon;Lee, Jae-Hee;Sung, Hyun Min;Boo, Kyung-On;Byun, Young-Hwa;Lim, Yoon-Jin;Kim, Yeon-Hee
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.439-454
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    • 2020
  • This study investigates the change in the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration and World Health Organization (WHO) air quality index (AQI) in East Asia (EA) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). AQI is an indicator of increasing levels about health concern, divided into six categories based on PM2.5 annual concentrations. Here, we utilized the ensemble results of UKESM1, the climate model operated in Met Office, UK, for the analysis of long-term variation during the historical (1950~2014) and future (2015~2100) period. The results show that the spatial distributions of simulated PM2.5 concentrations in present-day (1995~2014) are comparable to observations. It is found that most regions in EA exceeded the WHO air quality guideline except for Japan, Mongolia regions, and the far seas during the historical period. In future scenarios containing strong air quality (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air quality (SSP2-4.5) controls, PM2.5 concentrations are substantially reduced, resulting in significant improvement in AQI until the mid-21st century. On the other hand, the mild air pollution controls in SSP3-7.0 tend to lead poor AQI in China and Korea. This study also examines impact of increased in PM2.5 concentrations on downward shortwave energy at the surface. As a result, strong air pollution controls can improve air quality through reduced PM2.5 concentrations, but lead to an additional warming in both the near and mid-term future climate over EA.

Trends identification of species distribution modeling study in Korea using text-mining technique (텍스트마이닝을 활용한 종분포모형의 국내 연구 동향 파악)

  • Dong-Joo Kim;Yong Sung Kwon;Na-Yeon Han;Do-Hun Lee
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.413-426
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    • 2023
  • Species distribution model (SDM) is used to preserve biodiversity and climate change impact. To evaluate biodiversity, various studies are being conducted to utilize and apply SDM. However, there is insufficient research to provide useful information by identifying the current status and recent trends of SDM research and discussing implications for future research. This study analyzed the trends and flow of academic papers, in the use of SDM, published in academic journals in South Korea and provides basic information that can be used for related research in the future. The current state and trends of SDM research were presented using philological methods and text-mining. The papers on SDM have been published 148 times between 1998 and 2023 with 115 (77.7%) papers published since 2015. MaxEnt model was the most widely used, and plant was the main target species. Most of the publications were related to species distribution and evaluation, and climate change. In text mining, the term 'Climate change' emerged as the most frequent keyword and most studies seem to consider biodiversity changes caused by climate change as a topic. In the future, the use of SDM requires several considerations such as selecting the models that are most suitable for various conditions, ensemble models, development of quantitative input variables, and improving the collection system of field survey data. Promoting these methods could help SDM serve as valuable scientific tools for addressing national policy issues like biodiversity conservation and climate change.