• Title/Summary/Keyword: Ensemble Method

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Assessing the Climate Change Impacts on Paddy Rice Evapotranspiration Considering Uncertainty (불확실성을 고려한 논벼 증발산량 기후변화 영향 평가)

  • Choi, Soon-Kun;Jeong, Jaehak;Cho, Jaepil;Hur, Seung-Oh;Choi, Dongho;Kim, Min-Kyeong
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.143-156
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    • 2018
  • Evapotranspiration is a key element in designing and operating agricultural hydraulic structures. The profound effect of climate change to local agro-hydrological systems makes it inevitable to study the potential variability in evapotranspiration rate in order to develop policies on future agricultural water management as well as to evaluate changes in agricultural environment. The APEX-Paddy model was used to simulate local evapotranspiration responses to climate change scenarios. Nine Global Climate Models(GCMs) downscaled using a non-parametric quantile mapping method and a Multi?Model Ensemble method(MME) were used for an uncertainty analysis in the climate scenarios. Results indicate that APEX-Paddy and the downscaled 9 GCMs reproduce evapotranspiration accurately for historical period(1976~2005). For future periods, simulated evapotranspiration rate under the RCP 4.5 scenario showed increasing trends by -1.31%, 2.21% and 4.32% for 2025s(2011~2040), 2055s(2041~2070) and 2085s(2071~2100), respectively, compared with historical(441.6 mm). Similar trends were found under the RCP 8.5 scenario with the rates of increase by 0.00%, 4.67%, and 7.41% for the near?term, mid?term, and long?term periods. Monthly evapotranspiration was predicted to be the highest in August, July was the month having a strong upward trend while. September and October were the months showing downward trends in evapotranspiration are mainly resulted from the shortening of the growth period of paddy rice due to temperature increase and stomatal closer as ambient $CO_2$ concentration increases in the future.

Explainable AI Application for Machine Predictive Maintenance (설명 가능한 AI를 적용한 기계 예지 정비 방법)

  • Cheon, Kang Min;Yang, Jaekyung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.227-233
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    • 2021
  • Predictive maintenance has been one of important applications of data science technology that creates a predictive model by collecting numerous data related to management targeted equipment. It does not predict equipment failure with just one or two signs, but quantifies and models numerous symptoms and historical data of actual failure. Statistical methods were used a lot in the past as this predictive maintenance method, but recently, many machine learning-based methods have been proposed. Such proposed machine learning-based methods are preferable in that they show more accurate prediction performance. However, with the exception of some learning models such as decision tree-based models, it is very difficult to explicitly know the structure of learning models (Black-Box Model) and to explain to what extent certain attributes (features or variables) of the learning model affected the prediction results. To overcome this problem, a recently proposed study is an explainable artificial intelligence (AI). It is a methodology that makes it easy for users to understand and trust the results of machine learning-based learning models. In this paper, we propose an explainable AI method to further enhance the explanatory power of the existing learning model by targeting the previously proposedpredictive model [5] that learned data from a core facility (Hyper Compressor) of a domestic chemical plant that produces polyethylene. The ensemble prediction model, which is a black box model, wasconverted to a white box model using the Explainable AI. The proposed methodology explains the direction of control for the major features in the failure prediction results through the Explainable AI. Through this methodology, it is possible to flexibly replace the timing of maintenance of the machine and supply and demand of parts, and to improve the efficiency of the facility operation through proper pre-control.

Research on Data Tuning Methods to Improve the Anomaly Detection Performance of Industrial Control Systems (산업제어시스템의 이상 탐지 성능 개선을 위한 데이터 보정 방안 연구)

  • JUN, SANGSO;Lee, Kyung-ho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.691-708
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    • 2022
  • As the technology of machine learning and deep learning became common, it began to be applied to research on anomaly(abnormal) detection of industrial control systems. In Korea, the HAI dataset was developed and published to activate artificial intelligence research for abnormal detection of industrial control systems, and an AI contest for detecting industrial control system security threats is being conducted. Most of the anomaly detection studies have been to create a learning model with improved performance through the ensemble model method, which is applied either by modifying the existing deep learning algorithm or by applying it together with other algorithms. In this study, a study was conducted to improve the performance of anomaly detection with a post-processing method that detects abnormal data and corrects the labeling results, rather than the learning algorithm and data pre-processing process. Results It was confirmed that the results were improved by about 10% or more compared to the anomaly detection performance of the existing model.

Development of Type 2 Prediction Prediction Based on Big Data (빅데이터 기반 2형 당뇨 예측 알고리즘 개발)

  • Hyun Sim;HyunWook Kim
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.999-1008
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    • 2023
  • Early prediction of chronic diseases such as diabetes is an important issue, and improving the accuracy of diabetes prediction is especially important. Various machine learning and deep learning-based methodologies are being introduced for diabetes prediction, but these technologies require large amounts of data for better performance than other methodologies, and the learning cost is high due to complex data models. In this study, we aim to verify the claim that DNN using the pima dataset and k-fold cross-validation reduces the efficiency of diabetes diagnosis models. Machine learning classification methods such as decision trees, SVM, random forests, logistic regression, KNN, and various ensemble techniques were used to determine which algorithm produces the best prediction results. After training and testing all classification models, the proposed system provided the best results on XGBoost classifier with ADASYN method, with accuracy of 81%, F1 coefficient of 0.81, and AUC of 0.84. Additionally, a domain adaptation method was implemented to demonstrate the versatility of the proposed system. An explainable AI approach using the LIME and SHAP frameworks was implemented to understand how the model predicts the final outcome.

A Bi-directional Information Learning Method Using Reverse Playback Video for Fully Supervised Temporal Action Localization (완전지도 시간적 행동 검출에서 역재생 비디오를 이용한 양방향 정보 학습 방법)

  • Huiwon Gwon;Hyejeong Jo;Sunhee Jo;Chanho Jung
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.145-149
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    • 2024
  • Recently, research on temporal action localization has been actively conducted. In this paper, unlike existing methods, we propose two approaches for learning bidirectional information by creating reverse playback videos for fully supervised temporal action localization. One approach involves creating training data by combining reverse playback videos and forward playback videos, while the other approach involves training separate models on videos with different playback directions. Experiments were conducted on the THUMOS-14 dataset using TALLFormer. When using both reverse and forward playback videos as training data, the performance was 5.1% lower than that of the existing method. On the other hand, using a model ensemble shows a 1.9% improvement in performance.

Risk Factor Analysis of Cryopreserved Autologous Bone Flap Resorption in Adult Patients Undergoing Cranioplasty with Volumetry Measurement Using Conventional Statistics and Machine-Learning Technique

  • Yohan Son;Jaewoo Chung
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.67 no.1
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    • pp.103-114
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    • 2024
  • Objective : Decompressive craniectomy (DC) with duroplasty is one of the common surgical treatments for life-threatening increased intracranial pressure (ICP). Once ICP is controlled, cranioplasty (CP) with reinsertion of the cryopreserved autologous bone flap or a synthetic implant is considered for protection and esthetics. Although with the risk of autologous bone flap resorption (BFR), cryopreserved autologous bone flap for CP is one of the important material due to its cost effectiveness. In this article, we performed conventional statistical analysis and the machine learning technique understand the risk factors for BFR. Methods : Patients aged >18 years who underwent autologous bone CP between January 2015 and December 2021 were reviewed. Demographic data, medical records, and volumetric measurements of the autologous bone flap volume from 94 patients were collected. BFR was defined with absolute quantitative method (BFR-A) and relative quantitative method (BFR%). Conventional statistical analysis and random forest with hyper-ensemble approach (RF with HEA) was performed. And overlapped partial dependence plots (PDP) were generated. Results : Conventional statistical analysis showed that only the initial autologous bone flap volume was statistically significant on BFR-A. RF with HEA showed that the initial autologous bone flap volume, interval between DC and CP, and bone quality were the factors with most contribution to BFR-A, while, trauma, bone quality, and initial autologous bone flap volume were the factors with most contribution to BFR%. Overlapped PDPs of the initial autologous bone flap volume on the BRF-A crossed at approximately 60 mL, and a relatively clear separation was found between the non-BFR and BFR groups. Therefore, the initial autologous bone flap of over 60 mL could be a possible risk factor for BFR. Conclusion : From the present study, BFR in patients who underwent CP with autologous bone flap might be inevitable. However, the degree of BFR may differ from one to another. Therefore, considering artificial bone flaps as implants for patients with large DC could be reasonable. Still, the risk factors for BFR are not clearly understood. Therefore, chronological analysis and pathophysiologic studies are needed.

Mining Intellectual History Using Unstructured Data Analytics to Classify Thoughts for Digital Humanities (디지털 인문학에서 비정형 데이터 분석을 이용한 사조 분류 방법)

  • Seo, Hansol;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.141-166
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    • 2018
  • Information technology improves the efficiency of humanities research. In humanities research, information technology can be used to analyze a given topic or document automatically, facilitate connections to other ideas, and increase our understanding of intellectual history. We suggest a method to identify and automatically analyze the relationships between arguments contained in unstructured data collected from humanities writings such as books, papers, and articles. Our method, which is called history mining, reveals influential relationships between arguments and the philosophers who present them. We utilize several classification algorithms, including a deep learning method. To verify the performance of the methodology proposed in this paper, empiricists and rationalism - related philosophers were collected from among the philosophical specimens and collected related writings or articles accessible on the internet. The performance of the classification algorithm was measured by Recall, Precision, F-Score and Elapsed Time. DNN, Random Forest, and Ensemble showed better performance than other algorithms. Using the selected classification algorithm, we classified rationalism or empiricism into the writings of specific philosophers, and generated the history map considering the philosopher's year of activity.

Automated algorithm of automated auditory brainstem response for neonates (신생아 청성뇌간 반응의 자동 판독 알고리즘)

  • Jung, Won-Hyuk;Hong, Hyun-Ki;Nam, Ki-Chang;Cha, Eun-Jong;Kim, Deok-Won
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SC
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    • v.44 no.1
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    • pp.100-107
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    • 2007
  • AABR(automated auditory brainstem response) test is used for the screening purpose of hearing ability of neonates. In this paper, algorithm using Rolle's theorem is suggested for automatic detection of the ensemble averaged ABR waveform. The ABR waveforms were recorded from 55 normal-hearing ears of neonates at screening levels varying from 30 to 60 dBnHL. Recorded signals were analyzed by expert audiologist and by the proposed algorithm. The results showed that the proposed algorithm correctly identified latencies of the major ABR waves (III, V) with latent difference below 0.2 ms. No significant differences were found between the two methods. We also analyzed the ABR signals using derivative algorithm and compared the results with proposed algorithm. The number of detected candidate waves using the proposed algorithm was 47 % less than that of the existing one. The proposed method had lower relative errors (0.01 % error at 60dBnHL) compared to the existing one. By using proposed algorithm, clinicians can detect and label waves III and V more objectively and quantitatively than the manual detection method.

Computer Simulation Studies of the Conformations of Polymeric Systems Near Surfaces as a Basic Research of the Elastomer (고무의 기초 연구로써 표면에 위치한 고분자 시스템 거동에 관한 수치모사 연구)

  • Kim, Myung-Yul;Park, Yung-Hoon
    • Elastomers and Composites
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.29-37
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    • 2000
  • In this study as a basic research of the elastomer, we show the results of the behavior of the two different chain length polymers in the melt confined between two impenetrable planes. The cubic lattice simulations are conducted in the canonical ensemble with a method that is a combination of reptation and crackshaft bond flip motions. A total of 680 chains which are 544 short chains comprising 10 beads and 136 long chains comprising 160 beads were placed in 20 lattice layers. It was assumed that there is no energetic interactions between covalently connected beads. while all other neighbors will interact with a truncated 6-12 Lennard-Jones potential. From the analysis of the simulation results, it was shown that purely entropic effects caused the shorter chains to partition preferentially to the surface. We also showed that the center of mass density of the shorter chains shows maximum near the surface. This is the opposite phenomena when compared to that of the longer chains. However, the segments of the shorter and the longer chains did not display any significant changes in bond order.

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A Study on the Development of T-DMB Frame Analysis Simulator and its Utilization in Education (T-DMB 프레임 분석 시뮬레이터 개발 및 교육활용에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, In-Tae;Kim, Han-Jong
    • Journal of Practical Engineering Education
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.31-37
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    • 2015
  • Terrestrial digital multimedia broadcasting (TDMB) is a method of bringing multimedia images, radio, internet, and television to portable devices through terrestrial digital radio transmissions. TDMB related educations being carried out in colleges are focusing on developing firmware which enables users to choose a wanted service. TDMB transmission frame is made up of synchronization channel (SC), fast information channel (FIC), and main service channel (MSC). Services such as video, audio and date are transmitted in the form of subchannel in the MSC. FIC carries information related to each services and subchannels. This paper presents a TDMB frame analysis simulator for analyzing and displaying FIC data on PC. TDMB frame analysis simulator contains functions such as controlling TDMB receiver through USB, establishing the frequency, bringing FIC to PC, displaying ensemble ID and levels, and displaying informations related to services and subchannels. In addition to that, this simulator has a function of being able to store FIC date and subchannel data. This simulator being developed with C++ is expected to be used to view those data visually so that it helps students to understand the TDMB system better and bring about the educational motivation.