• Title/Summary/Keyword: Energy Supply/Demand Prediction

Search Result 32, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

Performance Analysis and Optimum Design Method of Positive Displacement Turbine for Small Hydropower (소수력발전용 용적형수차의 성능해석과 최적설계법에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Young-Do
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.31 no.5
    • /
    • pp.514-521
    • /
    • 2007
  • There has been considerable interest recently in the topic of renewable energy. This is primarily due to concerns about environmental impacts. Moreover, fluctuating and rising oil prices, increases in demand, supply uncertainties and other factors have led to increased calls for alternative energy sources. Small hydropower, especially using water supply system, attracts high attentions because of relatively lower cost and smaller space requirements to construct the plant. Moreover. newly developed positive displacement turbine has high acceptability for the system. Therefore, the purpose of this study is focused on the examination of the performance characteristics and proposition of a optimum design method of the turbine for the improvement of the performance. The results show that newly proposed optimum design method for the turbine has high accuracy of performance prediction and good applicability for the performance improvement of the turbine.

Development of Data Visualized Web System for Virtual Power Forecasting based on Open Sources based Location Services using Deep Learning (오픈소스 기반 지도 서비스를 이용한 딥러닝 실시간 가상 전력수요 예측 가시화 웹 시스템)

  • Lee, JeongHwi;Kim, Dong Keun
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
    • /
    • v.25 no.8
    • /
    • pp.1005-1012
    • /
    • 2021
  • Recently, the use of various location-based services-based location information systems using maps on the web has been expanding, and there is a need for a monitoring system that can check power demand in real time as an alternative to energy saving. In this study, we developed a deep learning real-time virtual power demand prediction web system using open source-based mapping service to analyze and predict the characteristics of power demand data using deep learning. In particular, the proposed system uses the LSTM(Long Short-Term Memory) deep learning model to enable power demand and predictive analysis locally, and provides visualization of analyzed information. Future proposed systems will not only be utilized to identify and analyze the supply and demand and forecast status of energy by region, but also apply to other industrial energies.

Building of Prediction Model of Wind Power Generationusing Power Ramp Rate (Power Ramp Rate를 이용한 풍력 발전량 예측모델 구축)

  • Hwang, Mi-Yeong;Kim, Sung-Ho;Yun, Un-Il;Kim, Kwang-Deuk;Ryu, Keun-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
    • /
    • v.17 no.1
    • /
    • pp.211-218
    • /
    • 2012
  • Fossil fuel is used all over the world and it produces greenhouse gases due to fossil fuel use. Therefore, it cause global warming and is serious environmental pollution. In order to decrease the environmental pollution, we should use renewable energy which is clean energy. Among several renewable energy, wind energy is the most promising one. Wind power generation is does not produce environmental pollution and could not be exhausted. However, due to wind power generation has irregular power output, it is important to predict generated electrical energy accurately for smoothing wind energy supply. There, we consider use ramp characteristic to forecast accurate wind power output. The ramp increase and decrease rapidly wind power generation during in a short time. Therefore, it can cause problem of unbalanced power supply and demand and get damaged wind turbine. In this paper, we make prediction models using power ramp rate as well as wind speed and wind direction to increase prediction accuracy. Prediction model construction algorithm used multilayer neural network. We built four prediction models with PRR, wind speed, and wind direction and then evaluated performance of prediction models. The predicted values, which is prediction model with all of attribute, is nearly to the observed values. Therefore, if we use PRR attribute, we can increase prediction accuracy of wind power generation.

A Study on CNN based Production Yield Prediction Algorithm for Increasing Process Efficiency of Biogas Plant

  • Shin, Jaekwon;Kim, Jintae;Lee, Beomhee;Lee, Junghoon;Lee, Jisung;Jeong, Seongyeob;Chang, Soonwoong
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
    • /
    • v.7 no.1
    • /
    • pp.42-47
    • /
    • 2018
  • Recently, as the demand for limited resources continues to rise and problems of resource depletion rise worldwide, the importance of renewable energy is gradually increasing. In order to solve these problems, various methods such as energy conservation and alternative energy development have been suggested, and biogas, which can utilize the gas produced from biomass as fuel, is also receiving attention as the next generation of innovative renewable energy. New and renewable energy using biogas is an energy production method that is expected to be possible in large scale because it can supply energy with high efficiency in compliance with energy supply method of recycling conventional resources. In order to more efficiently produce and manage these biogas, a biogas plant has emerged. In recent years, a large number of biogas plants have been installed and operated in various locations. Organic wastes corresponding to biogas production resources in a biogas plant exist in a wide variety of types, and each of the incoming raw materials is processed in different processes. Because such a process is required, the case where the biogas plant process is inefficiently operated is continuously occurring, and the economic cost consumed for the operation of the biogas production relative to the generated biogas production is further increased. In order to solve such problems, various attempts such as process analysis and feedback based on the feedstock have been continued but it is a passive method and very limited to operate a medium/large scale biogas plant. In this paper, we propose "CNN-based production yield prediction algorithm for increasing process efficiency of biogas plant" for efficient operation of biogas plant process. Based on CNN-based production yield forecasting, which is one of the deep-leaning technologies, it enables mechanical analysis of the process operation process and provides a solution for optimal process operation due to process-related accumulated data analyzed by the automated process.

Assessment of Transmission Losses with The 7th Basic Plan of Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand (7차 전력수급계획에 따른 송전계통 손실 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Yul;Lee, Yeo-Jin
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers P
    • /
    • v.67 no.2
    • /
    • pp.112-118
    • /
    • 2018
  • In recent years, decentralized power have been increasing due to environmental problems, liberalization of electricity markets and technological developments. These changes have led to the evolution of power generation, transmission, and distribution into discrete sectors and the division of integrated power systems. Therefore, studies are underway to efficiently supply power and reduce losses to each sector's demand. This is a major concern for system planners and operators, as it accounts for a relatively high proportion of total power, with a transmission and distribution loss of 4-6%. Therefore, this paper analyzes the status of loss management based on the current transmission and distribution loss rate of each country and transmission loss management cases of each national power company, and proposes a loss rate prediction algorithm according to the long-term transmission system plan. The proposed algorithm predicts the demand-based long-term evolution and the loss rate of the grid to which the transmission plan is applied.

Hourly Steel Industry Energy Consumption Prediction Using Machine Learning Algorithms

  • Sathishkumar, VE;Lee, Myeong-Bae;Lim, Jong-Hyun;Shin, Chang-Sun;Park, Chang-Woo;Cho, Yong Yun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
    • /
    • 2019.10a
    • /
    • pp.585-588
    • /
    • 2019
  • Predictions of Energy Consumption for Industries gain an important place in energy management and control system, as there are dynamic and seasonal changes in the demand and supply of energy. This paper presents and discusses the predictive models for energy consumption of the steel industry. Data used includes lagging and leading current reactive power, lagging and leading current power factor, carbon dioxide (tCO2) emission and load type. In the test set, four statistical models are trained and evaluated: (a) Linear regression (LR), (b) Support Vector Machine with radial kernel (SVM RBF), (c) Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), (d) random forest (RF). Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used to measure the prediction efficiency of regression designs. When using all the predictors, the best model RF can provide RMSE value 7.33 in the test set.

Comparative Analysis of Solar Power Generation Prediction AI Model DNN-RNN (태양광 발전량 예측 인공지능 DNN-RNN 모델 비교분석)

  • Hong, Jeong-Jo;Oh, Yong-Sun
    • Journal of Internet of Things and Convergence
    • /
    • v.8 no.3
    • /
    • pp.55-61
    • /
    • 2022
  • In order to reduce greenhouse gases, the main culprit of global warming, the United Nations signed the Climate Change Convention in 1992. Korea is also pursuing a policy to expand the supply of renewable energy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The expansion of renewable energy development using solar power led to the expansion of wind power and solar power generation. The expansion of renewable energy development, which is greatly affected by weather conditions, is creating difficulties in managing the supply and demand of the power system. To solve this problem, the power brokerage market was introduced. Therefore, in order to participate in the power brokerage market, it is necessary to predict the amount of power generation. In this paper, the prediction system was used to analyze the Yonchuk solar power plant. As a result of applying solar insolation from on-site (Model 1) and the Korea Meteorological Administration (Model 2), it was confirmed that accuracy of Model 2 was 3% higher. As a result of comparative analysis of the DNN and RNN models, it was confirmed that the prediction accuracy of the DNN model improved by 1.72%.

LSTM-based Power Load Prediction System Design for Store Energy Saving (매장 에너지 절감을 위한 LSTM 기반의 전력부하 예측 시스템 설계)

  • Choi, Jongseok;Shin, Yongtae
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
    • /
    • v.14 no.4
    • /
    • pp.307-313
    • /
    • 2021
  • Most of the stores of small business owners are those that use a large number of electrical devices, and in particular, there are many stores that use a cold storage system. In severe cases, there is a lot of power load on the store, which can cause a loss to the assets in the store as the power supply is cut off. Accordingly, in this paper, an LSTM-based power load prediction system was designed to measure the energy demand rate of stores and to save energy. Since it can be used as a data-based power saving system for small and medium-sized stores, it is expected to be used as a data-based power demand prediction system for small businesses in the future, and to be used in the field of preventing damage due to power load.

Power Trading System through the Prediction of Demand and Supply in Distributed Power System Based on Deep Reinforcement Learning (심층강화학습 기반 분산형 전력 시스템에서의 수요와 공급 예측을 통한 전력 거래시스템)

  • Lee, Seongwoo;Seon, Joonho;Kim, Soo-Hyun;Kim, Jin-Young
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
    • /
    • v.21 no.6
    • /
    • pp.163-171
    • /
    • 2021
  • In this paper, the energy transaction system was optimized by applying a resource allocation algorithm and deep reinforcement learning in the distributed power system. The power demand and supply environment were predicted by deep reinforcement learning. We propose a system that pursues common interests in power trading and increases the efficiency of long-term power transactions in the paradigm shift from conventional centralized to distributed power systems in the power trading system. For a realistic energy simulation model and environment, we construct the energy market by learning weather and monthly patterns adding Gaussian noise. In simulation results, we confirm that the proposed power trading systems are cooperative with each other, seek common interests, and increase profits in the prolonged energy transaction.

Nonlinear impact of temperature change on electricity demand: estimation and prediction using partial linear model (기온변화가 전력수요에 미치는 비선형적 영향: 부분선형모형을 이용한 추정과 예측)

  • Park, Jiwon;Seo, Byeongseon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.32 no.5
    • /
    • pp.703-720
    • /
    • 2019
  • The influence of temperature on electricity demand is increasing due to extreme weather and climate change, and the climate impacts involves nonlinearity, asymmetry and complexity. Considering changes in government energy policy and the development of the fourth industrial revolution, it is important to assess the climate effect more accurately for stable management of electricity supply and demand. This study aims to analyze the effect of temperature change on electricity demand using the partial linear model. The main results obtained using the time-unit high frequency data for meteorological variables and electricity consumption are as follows. Estimation results show that the relationship between temperature change and electricity demand involves complexity, nonlinearity and asymmetry, which reflects the nonlinear effect of extreme weather. The prediction accuracy of in-sample and out-of-sample electricity forecasting using the partial linear model evidences better predictive accuracy than the conventional model based on the heating and cooling degree days. Diebold-Mariano test confirms significance of the predictive accuracy of the partial linear model.